Håvard Devoid, ABB DK, Esbjerg 31 05 2012 The Energy · PDF fileAt the core: Reliable...
Transcript of Håvard Devoid, ABB DK, Esbjerg 31 05 2012 The Energy · PDF fileAt the core: Reliable...
© ABB GroupJune 4, 2012 | Slide 1
The Energy We Love To HateSolutions that matter in the deep, cold and unconventional future
Håvard Devoid, ABB DK, Esbjerg 31 05 2012
© ABB GroupJune 4, 2012 | Slide 2
Is oil & gas industry supply constrained?“Peak Oil” theory developed during 1950’s
Peak oil curve – global prediction(Hubbert ,1956)
Peak oil curve – global prediction(Hubbert ,1956)
US production vs. Hubbert predictionUS production vs. Hubbert prediction
Prod
uctio
n (B
bbl
s/yr
)
Prod
uctio
n (M
bbl
s/da
y)
Hubbert curve
US Production
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
10
8
6
4
2
© ABB GroupJune 4, 2012 | Slide 3
Is oil & gas industry supply constrained? “Peak Oil” theory interest renewed in late 1990’s
Annual oil production (B bbls)
"Peak oil risk is real and serious" — Matthew
Simmons, author Twilight in the Desert: The
Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy
30
25
20
15
10
5
01930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
WorldWorld Outside Persian GulfPersian GulfUS and CanadaFormer Soviet UnionUK and Norway
06
Global peak oil predicted to occur in 2000’s –but production continues to increase
Publication
00Production
10
© ABB GroupJune 4, 2012 | Slide 4
The new normal of relatively high and volatile oil pricesOil price closely linked to spare capacity
Oil Demand (1975 – 2030)Oil Demand (1975 – 2030)
USD/barrel
Oil price and effective spare capacityOil price and effective spare capacity
0
50
100
150
0
2
4
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8
2000'01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12
Spare capacity
Crude
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20
40
60
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1975
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'80
63
'85
57
'90
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'95
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'00
75
'05
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'10
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'15 '20 '25 '30
Million bbls / day
GlobalOPECNon-OPEC
0.8%
1.4%
Source: BP Statistical review, 2011, EIA, IEA; World Bank Commodity Pink sheet; crude price mix of WTI, Dubai, Brent
MBPD
CAGR
© ABB GroupJune 4, 2012 | Slide 5
Demand for energy will continue to grow: Non-OECD per capita consumption and absolute population growth drivers long term
© ABB GroupJune 4, 2012 | Slide 6
Nowhere is this more visible in ME vs Europe
Source: Jim Crane, Cambridge University
© ABB GroupJune 4, 2012 | Slide 7
Big picture: Oil supply curveDemand requires development of resources beyond “easy” oil
Drivers: Technology, Economics & Geo-Politics
Source: IEA
© ABB GroupJune 4, 2012 | Slide 8
Example: Reserves vs market priceIOR / Lifting cost influence
Source: Technip, IEA
© ABB GroupJune 4, 2012 | Slide 9
Global market significant in size and growthOil & Gas indicative spend growing $684B to $950B (2010-15)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
2010
108
122
188
236
684
2015
141
173
46
310
281
950
Upstream-Onshore
Upstream-Offshore
Midstream
Refining& Petchem
Chemical
• Investments driven by emerging market demand and steep decline rates in producing oil & gas fields
• Higher oil prices are new normal
• Gas, especially unconventional, gaining importance and high level of investment
• National Oil companies driving increasing share of investment and many imposing local content laws
• Deep water development growth continues
• Environmental concerns and potential legislation as uncertainties
• Aging workforce
• Geo-political uncertainty
• Importance of Water
Industry Drivers & trendsIndustry Drivers & trends
B USD
Source: Rystad Energy: INTSOK annual report 2009-2014 (E&P); Global Insight WIS, July 2010 (Refining, Petchem, Chemical); HPI 2010, JS Herold, IEA, EIA,
7%
Projection by geography (2010-15)Projection by geography (2010-15)Projection by segment (2010-15)Projection by segment (2010-15)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
2010
60
89
211
56
126
142
684
2015
78
107
284
86
184
211
950
Asia Pacific
CIS
Europe
MEA
N. America
S. America
7%
© ABB GroupJune 4, 2012 | Slide 10
ABB strategic footprint changes
Note: Not to scaleExample segment: upstream
Current OGP scopeNote portfolio has gaps
within some of these areas
Subsea
WellMMO
Drilling
Seismic
EPCMarine
Industry specific enablers:
safety, asset (reservoir) integrity,
IT infrastructure, operational
performance
Oil and Gas Companies
© ABB GroupJune 4, 2012 | Slide 11
At the core: Reliable power and automation technologyfor safe, efficient and sustainable operations
SIL Certified Safety
HMI & Control Room
Electrical distr. andPower Optimization
Operational Service and Support
O i l p ro d u c t i o n r a t e v e rs u s t i m e
0
5
1 0
1 5
2 0
2 5
3 0
3 5
0 .0 2 .0 4 .0 6 .0 8 .0 10 . 0T IM E (h )
Oil p
rodu
ctio
n ra
te (M
stb/D
)
G a s l i ft r at e = 1 8 9 4 . M s c f /D
O il p r o d u ct io n r at e v er s u s g as l if t r at e
0
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2
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0. 0 100 0.0 2000. 0 3000. 0 4000. 0 50 00. 0 600 0.0 7000. 0
G a s Li ft r ate (Ms cf/D )
Oil
pro
du
ctio
n ra
te (
Ms
tb/D
)
O il p rod uc tion rate - S table flowO il p rod uc tion rate - U ns tab le flow
Re g io n of o p t im u m o p e rat i o n
T PP F PCFCP
Telecom
Automation, Instrumentationand Simulation
Productivity andPerformance tuning
EPC
Integrated OperationCenters
AssetOptimization
Variable Speed Drives and Motors
SCADA, RTU
Terminalmgmt
© ABB GroupJune 4, 2012 | Slide 12
Goliat ProjectGoliat FPSO
© ABB GroupJune 4, 2012 | Slide 13
System 800xA – The Backbone
Base System servers Panel 800 System Workplaces
Extended Operator Workplaces
AC 800MHigh IntegrityController
ABB and 3rd partyPLC & DCS
Fire & GasAlam units
Shut-down
WirelessHART
S900 I/O
S800 I/O
WirelessHARTGateway
LV Switchgear
Variable Speed Drive
MotorController
AC 800MController
Protection &Control IED
Plant Network,ERP, CMMS…
System Networks
Field Networks
SubstationAutomation
ProcessElectrification
ProcessInstrumentation Safety PLC & DCS
IEC
618
50
PR
OFI
BU
S /
PR
OFI
NE
T / M
odul
ebus
/ D
evic
eNet
PR
OFI
BU
S /
Foun
datio
n Fi
eldb
us /
Mod
uleb
us
MO
DB
US
Mod
uleb
us
© ABB GroupJune 4, 2012 | Slide 14 LV Distribution
Industrial
400/230V
Integrated Electrical System
HV Motors
132/66kV
22kV
11kV
LV Motors
Power Transformers
400kV
HV Outdoor Switchgears
Indoor HV GIS
Indoor AIS
Indoor GIS
Ex
LV DrivesLV Distribution
Transformers
Power Transformers
Power Transformers
Battery UPS
HV Drives
LCIDrives
690V
Distribution Transformers
LV Switchboards
>20kVMotorformer
Turbines & Generators
Generator Transformers
© ABB GroupJune 4, 2012 | Slide 15
Goliat ProjectOnline Flow Assurance System and Operator Training Simulator
Vendor: ABB and SPT GroupOperator: ENISite: NorwayDelivery: 2012
System Integration:• ABB process control• Aker subsea control
Model (OLGA):• 11 subsea production wells• Production and injection system• Topside separators
OLGA Online FAS:• Virtual Flow Metering• Liquid Inventory• Slug Monitoring• MEG Monitoring• Hydrate Monitoring• Pig Tracking• Wax Warning• Production Forecast• Well Start-Up Advisor• Ramp-up Advisor• Subsea Production System Training Simulator
ABB FAS Applications:• Active Flowline Control• Automatic Deduction Testing of Wells• Common User Interface
© ABB GroupJune 4, 2012 | Slide 16
Goliat FPSO - Condition Monitoring System
Asset Management System (AMS)Condition Monitoring of Rotating Equipment
Turbines Compressors and diesel driven generatorsVibration and Performance Monitoring System
Valve MonitoringSmart Instrument MonitoringCondition Monitoring for Static Equipment Metering System MonitoringElectrical Monitoring
Monitoring of the sea cable UPS MonitoringDry transformersOil Filled TransformersCircuit breaker monitoringHeat TracingLow Voltage Switchboards High Voltage MonitoringVariable Speed Drive Monitoring
HVAC MonitoringFire and Gas Detectors MonitoringSub Sea MonitoringMarine Monitoring
Monitoring of the hull structureOffloading StationAnchor WinchesOffshore Cranes
Analyzers MonitoringTelecommunication Surveillance and Monitoring Systems PC, Network and Software MonitoringPerformance MonitoringRotating equipment performance monitoring Loop Performance Monitoring
© ABB GroupJune 4, 2012 | Slide 17
Goliat FPSO – IO deliveries
IO infrastructureIT topology and infrastructure
HistoriansInterfacesData to shore
Collaboration roomsSystem viewer
Insight applications suiteAlarmInsightSafetyInsightOperationalInsightReporting and monitoring applicaitons
Flow assurance and Optimization Slug ControlOlga OnlineAutomated Well testing
© ABB GroupJune 4, 2012 | Slide 18
Studies and FEEDExample: ADMA-OPCO – Long Term Offshore Power Supply
Scope of Work:ABB will provide an overview of alternatives for
optimal electric power supply to each facility/platform
Subsea cable design & calculationsHVDC calculations and sizing (including cost and
equipment key data)
Project description:Ensure long term electric power requirements at Das Island, USSC, ZWSC, USSC, ZCSC and new facilities. The project shall be designed to meet the power demand at the facilites up to 2030. It is expected that with the new Nuclear power stations to be built in UAE, these will supply all offshore fields with a “Power from Shore” concept and distribution via Das Island
© ABB GroupJune 4, 2012 | Slide 19
And then we build
Shell Gas Iraq BV has let a $60 million contract to ABB for a power plant in southern Iraq that will deliver electricity to gas processing facilities as part of the Iraqi South Gas Project.ABB will be responsible for the overall project management, engineering, procurement, construction, supervision, commissioning, start-up, and performanceThe plant is scheduled for completion in the third quarter of 2013.
Strategic Development AreasHåvard Devold, ABB Olie og Gass, Esbjerg 31 05 2012
© ABB GroupJune 4, 2012 | Slide 21
Selected 2015 ABB strategic focus areas
Deepwater / Subsea
Improved Oil Recovery / Digital Oilfield
Unconventional/Difficult ressources
Energy Efficiency / Electrification
© ABB GroupJune 4, 2012 | Slide 22
SUBSEA: ABB in subsea today
Subsea EquipmentElectrical Systems/Power Modules
Topside systemsFlow AssuranceTopside ControlTopside Electrical Distribution
SURFAC/DC Subsea power cables
© ABB GroupJune 4, 2012 | Slide 23
ABB investing in Statoil’s subsea visionTopside/shore
Subsea
Today Ongoing FutureToday Future
Platform/floaters based
O&G processing
Power supply
Platform based power generation or power
from shore
Long distance power from shore
ABB investing in subsea electrification & automation solutions to enable future subsea processing
Subsea
+ Subsea O&G processing+ No platforms/floaters+ One cable over many+ Longer distance– Limited distance
Subsea AC
+ Subsea O&G processing– Platforms/floaters needed– Many cables needed– High OPEX, CAPEX– People safety procedures– Environmental impact– Limited step-out distance
+ Subsea O&G processing+ No platforms/floaters+ One cable+ Cheaper cable+ Longest distance+ Common DC: no rectifiers
Topside AC Subsea DC
© ABB GroupJune 4, 2012 | Slide 24
UNCONVENTIONAL: Shale gas & liquids revolution?Global opportunity, current activity focused in NAM
N. America- Liquids Driven- Modest Level of
Environmental Issues
- High level of Labor cost consideration
- Mature, highly developed service sector
Europe- Gas Driven- Very High Level of
Environmental Issues
- High level of Labor cost consideration
- Early stage development
- Service sector shortage
Asia- Gas Driven- Low to modest Level of Environmental
Issues- Low level of Labor cost consideration- Early stage development- Service sector shortage
S. America- Gas Driven- Modest Level of Environmental Issues- Low level of Labor cost consideration- High Level of Local Content
Requirements- Early stage development- Service sector shortage
Environmental regulation greatest uncertainty to global development of unconventional plays using hydraulic fracturing
Note: Significant basins for unconventional gas (e.g. tight gas) in areas outside pictured report, such as Saudi Arabia and Russia
© ABB GroupJune 4, 2012 | Slide 25
Shale enabling technologies: Hydraulic fracturing & horizontal drilling
Schematic of processSchematic of process Hydraulic fracturing (~20MW or ~32000 HP)Hydraulic fracturing (~20MW or ~32000 HP)
© ABB GroupJune 4, 2012 | Slide 26
Shale play – not just gas, but also liquidsLiquids include NGLs and light, sweet crude (API 40 – 60º)
Hydraulic fracturing from Vertical wells for gas in the Barnett Shale
Hydraulic fracturing from Horizontal wells for gas in multiple shale plays
Hydraulic fracturing from Horizontal wells in multiple shale gas & oil plays
0.0
2.5
5.0
7.5
10.0
12.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2000 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11
Gas, TCF/D Oil, MBPD
GasOil
© ABB GroupJune 4, 2012 | Slide 27
Value potential
Increased production (3-5%)
Reduced production losses (20-40%)
Reduced operation and maintenance costs (15-30%)
© ABB GroupJune 4, 2012 | Slide 28
Visualization and digital asset information navigation
Asset-wide data integration
Collaborative environments
Operations IT security
Operations simulation
Performance Services
Reliability and integrity management
Flow management and optimization (e-Field)
Boosting Equipment (pumps, compressors)
Water systems
Subsea condition monitoring
Subsea well optimization (well control and monitoring)
Gas-lift, WAG re-injection
Downhole sensors
New drilling rigs and well intervention concepts
Inflow modeling
ABB targeted segments in IO / IOR
Reservoir
Digital Oilfield
ABB targeted segmentsABB targeted segments Other segments (non-focus)Other segments (non-focus)
Enterprise IT integration, ERP and common IT support and services (IBM, Accenture, SAP, Infosys)
Video conferencing / AV equipment
Telecommunication / satellite services
Hydrocarbon accounting / Trading
Change management consulting
Logistics and maintenance CMMO
Fiscal Metering
Drilling and well oilfield services
Carbone capture and storage
Subsea fiber communication networks
Trees and Wellheads (production and injection wells, and injection systems)
Seismic and data mining
Reservoir modeling and simulation
Wells & Drilling
Artificial Lift
IOR Special methods
Draft
Production Optimization & Services
© ABB GroupJune 4, 2012 | Slide 29
Improved Oil Recovery (IOR)Filling in the full picture
Water cut meter
Separation
Produced water treatment
Injection water treatment
Water injection pump
Discharged water monitor
Seabed multiphase pump
ESP, downhole pump
Raw seawater injectionSoftware:
Reservoir drainage and water management
Well Monitoring System
Well Allocation System
© ABB GroupJune 4, 2012 | Slide 30
Integrated Operations – Digital Oilfield
Company Expert Resource Centers
Supplier SupportCenter
OperationCenter
SecureSatellite / Fibre
Optic / Broad-band Connection
Offshore Operations Control, Safety, Asset
Manager and Optimization
Information Management& IT Security
Operation andCollaboration Centers
Flow Assurance Production Optimization
OperatorAssistance and
Operational Support
Performance Solutions & Services
Asset ManagementCondition Monitoring
Integrated OperationsDigital Oilfield
© ABB GroupJune 4, 2012 | Slide 31
Primary energy Transport Generation T&DIndustrial processes
Industrial production
Avai
labl
e en
ergy
ABB technology can reduce losses by 20-30%
More efficient fuel combustion
Higher pipeline flows
Improved well efficiency Lower line losses,
higher substation efficiency
Improved productivity
More efficient motors & drives
Drives &motors
ProcessAutomation
Marine & pipelines
Power plantautomation
Gridoperation
Processautomation
ENERGY EFFICIENCY/ELECTRIFICATION:Potential increases in efficiency
© ABB GroupJune 4, 2012 | Slide 32
Energy Efficiency:Finding the toasters in your process
“The Toaster”Runs continuously 06:00-10:00, 2 kWAir conditioned area, so 3 kW to cool down again50% efficiency => (2+3)/0,5 * 4 h = 40 kWh thermalConventional: Two loafs/2 min each 5 min @1kW gives (1+1,5)*(2/5)/0,5 *4 = 4 kWh thermal
So what are the “toasters” in your process ?PumpsCompressorsProcess Instabilities (all variations drain energy)Heat lossMaintenances issues (wear, friction, scaling…)
© ABB GroupJune 4, 2012 | Slide 33
Asset management and Energy efficiency
Electrical: Drive power, speed, torque, stallProcess: Flow, Temperature, Pressure, VibrationDiagnostics:
Wheel wear, Scaling, Motor electrical faults, EfficiencyWhy ?
Eliminate in operation failures (3-10 additional uptime days per year)Reduce periodic maintenance costs by 15-30%Extend equipment lifetime by 10-30%
“The worlds of automation and electrification are becoming increasingly entwined due to the substantial potential for energy savings, increased reliability and uptime, and reduced maintenance costs. ABB’s ability to integrate the process control, process electrification, and power distribution and management portions of a plant with System 800xA , leveraging the IEC61850 standard, offers end users significant operational benefits,” said Larry O'Brien, Research Director for Process Industries, ARC. “Typical savings can result in a 20 percent reduction in CAPEX (capital expenditures) and OPEX (operating expenditures).” (ARC 02 nov 2010)
© ABB GroupJune 4, 2012 | Slide 34
Power from (to) Shore solutions
AC
HVDC
HVDC
ACHVDC
HVAC
© ABB Group June 4, 2012 | Slide 34
© ABB GroupJune 4, 2012 | Slide 35
Summing upReliable power and automation technologyfor safe, efficient and sustainable operationsDeepwater / SubseaImproved Oil Recovery / Digital OilfieldUnconventional/Difficult ressourcesEnergy Efficiency / Electrification
Subsurface/wells
Subsea
Topside/process
© ABB GroupJune 4, 2012 | Slide 36