Human dynamics of climate change - Met Office€¦ · 16 Tropical cyclone region Present day...
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Change in annual air surface temperature by the end of the 21 st century 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 ˚C Change in annual precipitation by the end of the 21 st century .................................................................... .................................................................... .................................................................... .................................................................... .................................................................... .................................................................... .................................................................... .................................................................... .................................................................... .................................................................... .................................................................... .................................................................... 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.................................................................... .................................................................... .................................................................... .................................................................... .................................................................... .................................................................... .................................................................... .................................................................... .................................................................... .................................................................... 40 20 0 -20 -40 % Present day sea surface temperature ˚C 0 6 12 18 24 30 Present-day human dynamics 0-1.24 1.25-2.4 2.5-4.9 5-9 ≥10 Maritime choke points (millions of barrels of oil per day) <4 4 – 16 >16 Tropical cyclone region Present day population density Present day regions of high water stress Countries that have appeared in the top ten of the Fund For Peace’s Fragile States Index Persons per km 2 2 4 8 16 31 62 125 250 500 1,000 Busiest airports Busiest ports Fishing regions Human Dynamics of Climate Change Future change Decrease in wheat yield (%) 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 ≥20 Increase in wheat yield (%) 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 ≥20 only strongest signal shown (%) 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 ≥70 Melting Arctic sea ice only strongest signal shown (%) 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 ≥70 Decrease in maize yield (%) 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 ≥20 Increase in maize yield (%) 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 ≥20 Decrease in rice yield (%) 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 ≥20 Increase in rice yield (%) 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 ≥20 Decrease in soybean yield (%) 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 ≥20 Increase in soybean yield (%) 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 ≥20 Decrease in number of days in drought (%) 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 ≥20 Increase in number of days in drought (%) 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 ≥20 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 ≥20 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 ≥20 Increase in water demand for irrigation (%) 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 ≥20 Decrease in water demand for irrigation (%) 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 ≥20 Change in population (%) <0 0-49 50-99 100-199 200-399 ≥400 A due to sea level rise (millions) 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 ≥20 Increase in warm day temperature (˚C) 0.0 -1.4 1.5 -2.9 3 -4.4 4.5 -5.9 ≥6.0 Global crop yield changes Increase in sea surface temperature (˚C) 0.0 -0.9 1.0 -1.9 2.0 -2.9 3.0 -3.9 ≥4.0 Melting glaciers Human dynamics of climate change Global trade dynamics commodities, shown as a percentage of global exports, are indicated according to the following key: Wheat Import % Export % 0-4 5-9 10-19 20-39 >=40 Maize Import % Export % 0-4 5-9 10-19 20-39 >=40 Soybean Import % Export % 0-4 5-9 10-19 20-39 >=40 Rice Import % Export % 0-4 5-9 10-19 20-39 >=40 Human dynamics of climate change For further information about this map go to www.metoffice.gov.uk/human-dynamics This map shows projections of climate change impacts and population change by the end of the 21st century in the context of the way we live today, without adaptation. The climate projections are taken from the latest generation of climate and impacts models, for the end of the century (2071—2100) relative to a 1981—2010 baseline, under a ‘business as usual’ greenhouse gas concentration scenario (RCP8.5). The population change follows a ‘middle of the road’ socio-economic scenario (SSP2). The future change icons show the median change across the model runs in climatologically averaged regions. These projections are shown together with information on present-day human dynamics. ‘Business as usual’ scenario
Transcript of Human dynamics of climate change - Met Office€¦ · 16 Tropical cyclone region Present day...
Change in annual air surface temperature by the end of the 21st century
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˚CChange in annual precipitation by the end of the 21st century
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40
20
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-20
-40
%
Present day sea surface temperature
˚C0 6 12 18 24 30
Present-day human dynamics
0-1.24 1.25-2.4 2.5-4.9 5-9 ≥10
Maritime choke points (millions of barrels of oil per day)
<4 4 – 16 >16
Tropical cyclone region
Present day population density
Present day regions of high water stress
Countries that have appeared in the top ten of the Fund For Peace’s Fragile States Index
Persons per km2
2 4 8 16 31 62 125 250 500 1,000
Busiest airports
Busiest ports Fishing regions
Future changeDecrease in wheat yield (%)
0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 ≥20
Increase in wheat yield (%)
0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 ≥20
only strongest signal shown (%)
30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 ≥70
Melting Arctic sea ice
only strongest signal shown (%)
30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 ≥70
Decrease in maize yield (%)
0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 ≥20
Increase in maize yield (%)
0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 ≥20
Decrease in rice yield (%)
0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 ≥20
Increase in rice yield (%)
0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 ≥20
Decrease in soybean yield (%)
0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 ≥20
Increase in soybean yield (%)
0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 ≥20
Decrease in number of days in drought (%)
0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 ≥20
Increase in number of days in drought (%)
0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 ≥20
0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 ≥20
0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 ≥20
Increase in water demand for irrigation (%)
0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 ≥20
Decrease in water demand for irrigation (%)
0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 ≥20
Change in population (%)
<0 0-49 50-99 100-199 200-399 ≥400
Adue to sea level rise (millions)
0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 ≥20
Increase in warm day temperature (˚C)
0.0 -1.4 1.5 -2.9 3 -4.4 4.5 -5.9 ≥6.0
The impacts of climate change will not be experienced in isolation, but will
projections of climate impacts and population change assumptions from the latest generation of climate and impacts models for the end of the century (2071-2100), under an 'aggressive mitigation' greenhouse gas concentration
scenario (RCP 2.6) and a ‘middle of the road’ socio-economic scenario (SSP2). This information is shown together with information on present day
the pressures that climate change could exert on present day human activity, without adaptation.
Global crop yield changes
Increase in sea surface temperature (˚C)
0.0 -0.9 1.0 -1.9 2.0 -2.9 3.0 -3.9 ≥4.0
Melting glaciers
Human Dynamics of Climate Change
Future changeDecrease in wheat yield (%)
0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 ≥20
Increase in wheat yield (%)
0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 ≥20
only strongest signal shown (%)
30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 ≥70
Melting Arctic sea ice
only strongest signal shown (%)
30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 ≥70
Decrease in maize yield (%)
0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 ≥20
Increase in maize yield (%)
0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 ≥20
Decrease in rice yield (%)
0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 ≥20
Increase in rice yield (%)
0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 ≥20
Decrease in soybean yield (%)
0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 ≥20
Increase in soybean yield (%)
0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 ≥20
Decrease in number of days in drought (%)
0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 ≥20
Increase in number of days in drought (%)
0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 ≥20
0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 ≥20
0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 ≥20
Increase in water demand for irrigation (%)
0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 ≥20
Decrease in water demand for irrigation (%)
0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 ≥20
Change in population (%)
<0 0-49 50-99 100-199 200-399 ≥400
Adue to sea level rise (millions)
0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 ≥20
Increase in warm day temperature (˚C)
0.0 -1.4 1.5 -2.9 3 -4.4 4.5 -5.9 ≥6.0
Global crop yield changes
Increase in sea surface temperature (˚C)
0.0 -0.9 1.0 -1.9 2.0 -2.9 3.0 -3.9 ≥4.0
Melting glaciers
Human dynamics of climate change
Global trade dynamics
commodities, shown as a percentage of global exports, are indicated according to the following key:
Wheat
Import %
Export %
0-4 5-9 10-19 20-39 >=40
Maize
Import %
Export %
0-4 5-9 10-19 20-39 >=40
Soybean
Import %
Export %
0-4 5-9 10-19 20-39 >=40
Rice
Import %
Export %
0-4 5-9 10-19 20-39 >=40
Human dynamics of climate change
For further information about this map go to www.metoffice.gov.uk/human-dynamics
This map shows projections of climate change impacts and population change by the end of the 21st century in the context of the way we live today, without adaptation. The climate projections are taken from the latest generation of climate and impacts models, for the end of the century (2071—2100) relative to a 1981—2010 baseline, under a ‘business as usual’
greenhouse gas concentration scenario (RCP8.5). The population change follows a ‘middle of the road’ socio-economic scenario (SSP2). The future change icons show the median change across the model runs in climatologically averaged regions. These projections are shown together with information on present-day human dynamics.
‘Business as usual’ scenario
