Hudson Valley Economic Report, 2012 Q4

7/28/2019 Hudson Valley Economic Report, 2012 Q4

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ECONOMIC REPORT

of theHUDSON VALLEY

Fourth Quarter 2012

MARIST COLLEGE

Dr. Christy Huebner CaridiMarist Bureau of Economic ResearchSchool of Management

Poughkeepsie, New York 12601

Edited by Leslie Bates

April 2013

This report is available on the Bureau of Economic Research homepage athttp://www.marist.edu/management/bureau

The support of student research assistant Sarah Greenberg and Kristen Sandbergis acknowledged and appreciated.

While every effort has been made to ensure that the information in this report is accurate, Marist Collegecannot be held responsible for any remaining errors.


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Hudson Valley Summary

Region-wide, employment and labor-force participation peaked in July of 2008

seven months after the start of the Great Recessionat 1,128,500 and 1,189,500,respectively. Employment reached a post-recession low in February of 2012 at 1,024,400 while

the labor force bottomed out a year later (February of 2011) at 1,112,000. From peak to trough,

labor-force participation fell 6.52 percent (77,500) and employment contracted 9.22 percent

(104,100). As of January 2013, the region has recaptured 13.29 percent (10,300) of the labor force lost tothe recession and 4.03 percent (4,200) of the employment. The Capital Region reported similar results,

recapturing 18.40 percent of the labor force lost and 4.69 percent of the employment, while the Long

Island Region fared much better with a labor force and employment recaptured rate of 51.37 percent and

labor 32.24 percent, respectively. Within the region, the Lower Hudson Valley has recaptured 13.71

percent (7,100) of its labor force and 3.55 percent (2,300) of all jobs lost while the Upper Hudson Valley

has recaptured 12.06 percent (3,100) and 4.83 percent (1,900), respectively.

Year over year, labor-force participation in the Hudson Valley Region advanced 0.22 percent

(2,500), rising from 1,118,333 participants in the fourth quarter of 2011 to 1,120,833 in the fourth quarter of

2012 compared to a 0.40 percent (38,167) increase in New York State and a 0.94 percent (1.45 million)

increase nationwide. Within the region, the labor force advanced 0.30 percent (2,000) in the Lower

Hudson ValleyPutnam, Rockland and Westchesterand 0.11 percent (500) in the Upper Hudson

ValleyDutchess, Orange, Sullivan and Ulster counties. Region-wide, employment fell 0.19 percent (-

1,967), falling from 1,041,567 jobs in the fourth quarter of 2011 to 1,039,600 in the fourth quarter of 2012

compared to a 0.54 percent (46,967) increase in New York State and a 1.88 percent (2.64 million)

increase nationwide. Within the region, employment fell -0.12 percent (-733) in the Lower Hudson

ValleyPutnam, Rockland and Westchesterand -0.30 percent (-1,233) in the Upper Hudson Valley

Dutchess, Orange, Sullivan and Ulster counties. Because the regional labor force increased whileemployment fell, the regional unemployment rate posted a year-over-year increase of 0.38 percentage

points, from 6.86 percent in the fourth quarter of 2011 to 7.25 percent in the fourth quarter of 2012. The

unemployment rate in the Lower Hudson Valley advanced 0.38 percentage points from 6.45 percent to

6.83 percent while in the Upper Hudson Valley the unemployment rate advanced 0.39 percentage points

from 7.51 percent to 7.90 percent. Statewide, the unemployment rate fell from 8.21 percent to 8.09

percent; nationwide, the unemployment rate fell from 8.67 percent to 7.82 percent.

The private-sector job count in the Hudson Valley peaked in the second quarter of 2008 at

756,433 and reached a post-recession low in the first quarter of 2010 at 697,233. As of the fourth

quarter of 2012, 90.00 percent (53,333) of all jobs lost due to the recession (59,200) had been recaptured

compared to 109 percent in the Long Island Region, 89 percent in the Capital Region and 128 percent

statewide. Region-wide, several sectorsother services, leisure and hospitality, trade, transportation andutilities and professional and business serviceshave created more jobs since the trough than were lost as

a result of the recession. In contrast, the job count in both the manufacturing sector and the information

sector continues to decline. As of the fourth quarter, the job count in the manufacturing sector was down

7,133 relative to the peak and 1,733 relative to the trough; the job count in the information sector was down

2,333 relative to the peak and 1,167 relative to the trough. Manufacturing as a share of total private-sector


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employment has fallen from 7.43 percent in the third quarter of 2008peak private-sector employment

to 6.34 percent in the fourth quarter of 2012.

Year over year, the regional job count was little changed, falling from 911,500 in the fourth

quarter of 2011 to 910,933 in the fourth quarter of 2012.Year over year, the private-sector job count

increased 0.40 percent from 747,567 to 750,567 while the job count in the public sector fell 2.18 percent

from 163,933 to 160,367. As of the fourth quarter 2012, one out of every 5.68 jobs in the Hudson Valley wasin the public sector compared to one out of every 5.56 in the fourth quarter of 2011. The private-sector job

count advanced in education and health (4,267), professional and business services (1,467), leisure and

hospitality (1,267), trade, transportation and utilities (100) and other services (833). The information

sector lost an additional 300 jobs, adding to the steady decline which began in 2001. Employment

continued to contract in natural resources, mining and construction (2,667), manufacturing (967) and

financial activities (1,000). Public-sector (government) employment fell (3,567). Within the Hudson

Valley the total job count fell in the Rockland-Westchester-Putnam, NY, MSA, the Kingston, NY, MSA

(Ulster County) and Sullivan County. The job count advanced in the Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-

Middletown, NY, MSA (Dutchess and Orange counties).

Region-wide, the average weekly private-sector wage posted a year-over-year decline of .22

percent, falling from $973 in the third quarter of 2011 to $971 in the third quarter of 2012 (most currentdata). Relative to nearby regions, the private-sector wage paid in the Hudson Valley ranked third ($971)

behind the New York City Region ($1,358) and the Long Island Region ($982). The Capital Region ranked

fourth at $833. By county, Westchester ranked second statewide, Rockland ranked fourth, Dutchess

ranked 11th, Putnam ranked 16th and Orange ranked 28th. Ulster and Sullivan ranked near the bottom at 45th

and 58th, respectively. The statewide average private-sector wagewhich is heavily impacted by the New

York City Regionwas $1,095. As of the third quarter of 2012, public-sector wages exceeded private-

sector wages in all seven counties, with the dollar wage premium ranging from a high of $351 in Ulster

County to a low of $40 in Rockland County. Region-wide, the dollar wage premium was $120, below the

dollar wage premium in both the Capital ($171) and Long Island regions ($160) but above the wage

premium in the New York City Region (-$205). Statewide, the wage premium was -$45.

Food-stamp dependence continues to advance with the number of recipients increasing 5.91

percent from 220,007 persons per month in the fourth quarter of 2011 to 233,017 persons in the fourth

quarter of 2012. Over the same one-year period, the monthly expenditure for food stamps increased $6.42

million from $31.54 million per month to $38.00 million per month. Sullivan County remains the most

dependent on food-stamp benefits at one out of every 5.80persons, followed by Rockland, Orange and

Ulster counties at one out of every 7.00 per persons, one out of every 8.30 per persons and one out of

every 8.60 persons, respectively. In New York State, one out of every 6.20 persons received food stamps

while in the Hudson Valley, one out of every 9.90 persons. In contrast, the number of residents who

received monthly Temporary Assistance (TA) benefitswhich includes Family Assistance (FA)1 and

Safety Net Assistance (SNA)2decreased 2.41 percent falling from 34,064 persons per month in the

fourth quarter of 2011 to 33,244 persons in the fourth quarter of 2012. Monthly expenditures for TA alsodeclined, falling 4.26 percent from $14.00 million per month to $13.38 million per month.

The housing market is beginning to improve. As of the fourth quarter of 2012, the median

selling price of an existing single-family home rose above the post-recession trough in every county in the

region with the exception of Orange County. Ulster County reported the highest relative increase at

1 As of December 1996, Family Assistance is limited to 60 months per lifetime. To be eligible for Family Assistance, the household must include(care for) a minor child.2 Safety Net Assistance has a lifetime limit of two years.


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14.62 percent above the trough followed by Sullivan County and Putnam County at 13.64 percent and

9.55 percent, respectively. Rockland County reported the lowest increase at 3.65 percent while in Orange

County the median selling price as of the fourth quarter 2012 was unchanged relative to the trough. In all

cases, the median selling price remains well below the peak evaluations witnessed during the housing

boom. However, it is important to note that sales activity has begun to accelerate, with all counties in

the region experiencing a year-over-year increase.A secondary sign pointing to improvement in the housing market is the demand for single-

and multifamily construction permits. Year over year, the demand for single-family permits increased

5.44 percent, from 809 construction permits with an average cost of $371,393 per permit in 2011 to 853

construction permits with an average cost of $269,899 per permit in 2012. Over the same period, the

demand for multifamily permits increased 22.64 percent from 106 multifamily permits in 2011 to 130

permits in 2012. The number of units also increased, rising from 1,016 units in 2011 to 1,190 units in 2012.

The total budgeted construction cost in 2012 rose 55.72 percent ($49.27 million) from $88.41 million in

2011 to $137.67 million in 2012. Similarly the average cost per unit increased 32.95 percent ($28,675)

from $87,017 per unit in 2011 to $115,692 in 2012.


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Hudson Valley Labor Force

Year over year, labor-force participation in the Hudson Valley Region advanced less thanthree tenths of one percent (2,500) from 1,118,333 participants in the fourth quarter of 2011 to

1,120,833 in the fourth quarter of 2012. In the upper Hudson ValleyDutchess, Orange, Sullivan

and Ulster countieslabor-

force participation

advanced (500) from

439,333 to 439,833 while in

the lower Hudson Valley

Putnam, Rockland and

Westchesterlabor-force

participation advanced(2,000) from 679,000 to

681,000. Over the same 12-

month period, labor-force

participation in New York

State increased (38,167)

from 9,534,733 to 9,572,900

while participation in the national (civilian) labor force posted a moderate year-over-year

increase of 0.94 percent (1.45 million), rising from 154.02 million to 155.47 million.

Year over year,

regional employment waslittle changed (-1,967),

falling from 1,041,567 jobs

in the fourth quarter of 2011

to 1,039,600. Employment

fell in the lower Hudson

Valley (-733) from 635,233

to 634,500 while

employment in the upper

Hudson Valley fell (-1,233)

from 406,333 to 405,1001.

Over the same 12-month

period, employment in

1 Numbers do not add to total labor force and total employment due to rounding.

1,000,000

1,020,000

1,040,000

1,060,000

1,080,000

1,100,000

1,120,000

1,140,000

1,060,000

1,080,000

1,100,000

1,120,000

1,140,000

1,160,000

1,180,000

1,200,000

2008-07

2008-10

2009-01

2009-04

2009-07

2009-10

2010-01

2010-04

2010-07

2010-10

2011-01

2011-04

2011-07

2011-10

2012-01

2012-04

2012-07

2012-10

2013-01

Employment

Employment and Labor-Force ParticipationData: NYS Department of Labor

LaborForce Employment

-60,000

-50,000

-40,000

-30,000

-20,000

-10,000

0

10,000

20,000

200807

200810

200901

200904

200907

200910

201001

201004

201007

201010

201101

201104

201107

201110

201201

201204

201207

201210

201301

Employment and Labor-Force ParticipationData: NYS Department of Labor

YearOverYear

Changein

Employment

YearOverYear

Changeinthe

LaborForce

Page 1 of 14


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New York State advanced (46,967) from 8,751,933 in the fourth quarter of 2011 to 8,798,900 in

the fourth quarter of 2012. Nationwide employment advanced 1.88 percent (2.64 million) from

140.66 million to 143.3 million.

Because the regional labor force increased while employment fell, the regional

unemployment rate posted a year-over-year increase of 0.38 percentage points, from 6.86 percent

in the fourth quarter of 2011 to 7.25 percent in the fourth quarter of 2012. The unemployment

rate in the Lower Hudson Valley advanced 0.38 percentage points from 6.45 percent to 6.83percent while in the Upper Hudson Valley the unemployment rate advanced 0.39 percentage

points from 7.51 percent to 7.90 percent. Statewide, the unemployment rate fell from 8.21

percent to 8.09 percent; nationwide, the unemployment rate fell from 8.67 percent to 7.82

percent.

During the 12-month period ending in January of 2013, the regional labor force

advanced .69 percent (7,700) compared to .86 percent (4,700) in the Capital Region, 1.68 percent

(24,600) in the Long Island Region and 1.04 percent (41,600) in the New York City Region. Over

the same period, regional employment increased .30 percent (3,100) while employment in the

Capital, Long Island and New York City regions increased .52 percent (2,600), 1.56 percent

(21,100) and .91 percent (32,600), respectively. The statewide labor force increased .34 percent(32,300) while employment increased .14 percent (11,800).

Region-wide, employment and labor-force participation peaked in July of 2008seven

months after the start of the Great Recessionat 1,128,500 and 1,189,500, respectively.

Employment reached a post-recession low in February of 2012 at 1,024,400 while the labor force

Hudson Valley Lower Hudson Valley Upoper Hudson Valley

PeriodsChange in

Labor ForceChange in

EmploymentChange in


EmploymentChange in


Employment

Feb 12-Mar 12 500 5,300 800 3,700 (300) 1,600

Mar 12-April 12 (700) 3,500 300 2,800 (1,000) 700

April 12-May 12 8,800 4,900 6,100 3,500 2,700 1,400

May 12-June 12 22,400 17,100 13,600 10,500 8,800 6,600

June 12-July 12 8,500 5,600 6,900 4,700 1,600 900

July 12-Aug 12 (13,000) (8,300) (8,900) (6,500) (4,100) (1,800)Aug 12-Sept 12 (20,800) (16,300) (14,400) (11,500) (6,400) (4,800)

Sept 12-Oct 12 6,600 8,100 3,700 4,500 2,900 3,600

Oct 12-Nov 12 (8,400) (5,100) (6,000) (4,100) (2,400) (1,000)

Nov 12-Dec 12 (200) (3,900) (300) (2,300) 100 (1,600)

Dec 12-Jan 13 4,400 (6,700) 3,300 (3,000) 1,100 (3,700)

Year-over-Year Change 7,700 3,100 4,100 1,200 3,600 1,900

YTD % Change 0.69% 0.30% 0.60% 0.19% 0.82% 0.48%

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bottomed out a year later (February of 2011) at 1,112,000.2 From peak to trough, employment

contracted 9.22 percent (104,100) and labor-force participation fell 6.52 percent (77,500). As of

January 2013, the region has recaptured 13.29 percent (10,300) of the labor force lost to the

recession and 4.03 percent (4,200) of the employment. Within the region, the Lower Hudson

Valley has recaptured 13.71 percent (7,100) of its labor force and 3.55 percent (2,300) of all jobs

lost while the Upper Hudson Valley has recaptured 12.06 percent (3,100) and 4.83 percent(1,900), respectively.

Recapture Rate

Region Labor Force Employment

Hudson Valley 13.29% 4.03%

Lower Hudson Valley 13.71% 3.55%

Upper Hudson Valley 12.06% 4.83%

New York City Region (a) 40.75%

Long Island Region 51.37% 32.24%Capital Region 18.40% 4.69%

(a) The labor force in New York City continued to grow during the Great Recession.

Data Source: New York State Department of Labor; author calculations

2 Revised numbers

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Nonfarm Employment by Place of Work3

Year over year, the private sector added 3,000 jobswhile public-sector employment continued to contract (-3,567).

Over the 12-month period ending in the fourth quarter of 2012, the regional job count waslittle changed, falling from 911,500 in the fourth quarter of 2011 to 910,933 in the fourth quarter of

2012.Year over year, the

private-sector job count

increased 0.40 percent

from 747,567 to 750,567

while the job count in the

public sector fell 2.18

percent from 163,933 to

160,367. As of the fourth

quarter 2012, one out of

every 5.68 jobs in the

Hudson Valley was in the

public sector compared to

one out of every 5.56 in the

fourth quarter of 2011.

Year over year, the

private-sector job count

advanced in education and health (4,267), professional and business services (1,467), leisure and

hospitality (1,267), trade, transportation and utilities (100), and other services (833). Theinformation sector lost an additional 300 jobs, adding to the steady decline which began in 2001.

Employment continued to contract in natural resources, mining and construction (2,667),

manufacturing (967) and financial activities (1,000). Public-sector (government) employment

fell (3,567).

Within the Hudson Valley the total job count fell in the Rockland-Westchester-Putnam,

NY, MSA, the Kingston, NY, MSA (Ulster County) and in Sullivan County. The job count

advanced in the Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY, MSA (Dutchess and Orange

counties).

In the Rockland-Westchester-Putnam, NY, MSA, the overall job count fell (1,300) from

569,533 in the fourth quarter of 2011 to 568,233 in the fourth quarter of 2012. For the period, thejob count fell in both the private sector (400) and the public sector (900). Job gains were

recorded in the health and educational services sector (1,833), the professional and business

services sector (833), other services (667), and the trade, transportation and utilities sector (200).

Over the same period, the private-sector job count declined in the natural resources, mining and

3 Current Employment Statistics (CES): survey of sample employers excludesself-employed, agricultural, domestic workers and the military.Place of Work Series. The employment figures in this section are three-month averages.

2,667

967

100

300

1,000

1,467

4,267

1,267

833

3,567

567

3,000

3,633

6,633

NaturalResources,MiningandConstruction

Manufacturing

Trade,Transportation,andUtilities

Information

FinancialActivities

ProfessionalandBusinessServices

EducationandHealthServices

LeisureandHospitality

OtherServices

Government

TotalNonfarm

TotalPrivate

GoodsProducing

PrivateServiceProviding

ChangeinEmployment2011.42012.4

Data:NewYorkStateDepartmentofLaborCESSeries

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construction sector (1,800), the leisure and hospitality sector (933), the financial activities sector

(633), the manufacturing sector (400) and the information sector (167). The job count declined

(800) in the local government sector; however local education added (267). In the

Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY, MSA, (Dutchess and Orange counties), the

overall job count advanced (1,166) from 255,300 in the fourth quarter of 2011 to 256,466 in the

fourth quarter of 2012. For the period, the private-sector job count advanced (3,133) to 207,600 inthe fourth quarter of 2012 from 204,467 in the fourth quarter of 2011; public-sector employment

declined (1,967). Job gains were recorded in the education and health services sector (2,567), the

leisure and hospitality sector (1,667), the professional and business services sector (600) and

other services (233). The job count declined in the natural resources, mining and construction

sector (700), the manufacturing sector (400), the financial activities sector (367), the trade,

transportation and utilities sector (333) and the information sector (133). Employment in the

local government sector fell (933); local government education fell (767). In the Kingston, NY,

MSA (Ulster County), the overall job count fell (400) to 61,000 in the fourth quarter of 2012

from 61,400 in the fourth quarter of 2011. For the period, the private-sector job count advanced

(267); the public-sector job count retreated (667). Job gains were recorded in the leisure and

hospitality sector (500), the trade, transportation and utilities sector (133), the education and

health services sector (67) and the natural resources, mining and construction sector (33). The

job count fell in the manufacturing sector (333), and fell (67) in both the professional andbusiness services sector and the other services sector. The job count remained unchanged in both

the financial activities sector and the information sector. Employment in the federal government

sector was unchanged but fell in the state government sector (67) and in the local government

sector (600). Local education declined (433). In Sullivan County the overall job count declined

(33). Of this total, the public-sector job count fell (33) while there was no change in the number

of private-sector jobs.

Hudson Valley: Change in the Private-SectorJob Count Since the Recession Low

Data Source: New York State Department of Labor: CES Series, Author calculations

RecessionJobs Lost

Recovery JobsGained

ShareRecovered

Share of allJobs Lost

Share of all JobsRecovered

Natural Resources, Mining and Construction-16,500 4,000 24.24% 27.87% 7.50%

Manufacturing-7,133 -1,733 -24.30% 12.05% -3.25%

Trade, Transportation and Utilities-12,833 14,600 113.77% 21.68% 27.38%

Information-2,333 -1,167 -50.00% 3.94% -2.19%

Financial Activities-5,067 133 2.63% 8.56% 0.25%

Professional and Business Services-10,767 11,167 103.72% 18.19% 20.94%

Education and Health Services *6,500 11,000 NM** NM** NM**

Leisure and Hospitality-9,033 11,700 129.52% 15.26% 21.94%

Other Services-2,033 3,633 178.69% 3.43% 6.81%

Total Private-59,200 53,333 90.09% 100.00% 100.00%

* No cyclical job loss ** Not Meaningful

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Share Recovered: Private Sector Capital Region: 89.00% Long Island Region: 109.00% New York State: 128.00%

The private-sector job count in the Hudson Valley peaked in the second quarter of

2008 at 756,433 and reached a post-recession low in the first quarter of 2010 at 697,233. As of the

fourth quarter of 2012, 90 percent (53,333) of all jobs lost due to the recession (59,200) had been

recaptured compared to 109 percent in the Long

Island Region, 89 percent in the Capital Region and

128 percent statewide. Region-wide, severalsectorsother services, leisure and hospitality,

trade, transportation and utilities and professional

and business serviceshave created more jobs

since the trough than were lost as a result of the

recession. In contrast, the job count in both the

manufacturing sector and the information sector

continues to decline. As of the fourth quarter, the job count in the manufacturing sector was

down 7,133 relative to the peak, and 1,733 relative to the trough; the job count in the information

sector was down 2,333 relative to the peak and 1,167 relative to the trough. Manufacturing as a

share of total private-sector employment has fallen from 7.43 percent in the third quarter of

2008peak private-sector employmentto 6.34 percent in the fourth quarter of 2012.

Rockland-Westchester-Putnam: Change in the Private-SectorJob Count Since the Recession Low


RecessionJobs Lost

RecoveryJobs Gained

ShareRecovered


Share of allJobs

RecoveredNatural Resources, Mining and Construction

-11,867 3,067 25.84% 29.47% 9.55%Manufacturing

-3,300 -1,900 -57.58% 8.20% -5.92%

Trade, Transportation and Utilities -8,467 8,400 99.21% 21.03% 26.17%Information

-1,700 -833 -49.02% 4.22% -2.60%Financial Activities

-4,033 667 16.53% 10.02% 2.08%Professional and Business Services

-8,933 8,633 96.64% 22.19% 26.90%Education and Health Services *

3,633 5,433 NM** NM** NM**Leisure and Hospitality

-4,433 6,167 139.10% 11.01% 19.21%Other Services

-1,167 2,467 211.43% 2.90% 7.68%Total Private

-40,267 32,100 79.72% 100.00% 100.00%* No cyclical job loss ** Not Meaningful

In the Lower Hudson Valley region (Rockland, Westchester and Putnam counties)

the private-sector job count peaked in the second quarter of 2008 at 485,767and reached a

post-recession low in the first quarter of 2010 at 445,500. As of the fourth quarter of 2012, 80

percent (32,100) of all jobs lost due to the recession (40,267) had been recaptured. The largest

Page 6 of 14


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Share Recovered: Private Sector Dutchess/Orange counties

137.00%

Ulster County 54.00% Sullivan Count 34.00

recapture rate occurred in the other services sector, follow by the leisure and hospitality

sector and the trade, transportation and utilities sector. In other services, and leisure and

hospitality, more jobs have been created since the trough than were lost to the recession. In

contrast, both the job count in the manufacturing sector and information sector continues to

decline. As of the fourth quarter, the job count in the manufacturing sector was down 5,200

relative to the peak and 1,900 relative to the trough while in the information sector the job count

was down 2,533 relative to peak and 833 relative to the trough.

In the Upper Hudson Valley (Dutchess, Orange, Ulster and Sullivan counties) theprivate-sector job count peaked in the third quarter of 2008 at 271,933 and reached a post-

recession trough in the first quarter of 2010 at

251,733. As of the fourth quarter of 2012, 105 percent

of all jobs lost (20,200) to the recession had been

recovered (21,234). The professional and business

services sector as well as the trade, transportation

and utilities sector and other services sector have

created more jobs since the trough than were lost to

the recession. In contrast, the job count in the

information sector and financial activities sector

has fallen: 966 below the peak and 333 below the trough, and 1,700 below the peak and 533

below the trough, respectively.

Dutchess, Orange, Ulster and Sullivan:Change in the Private-Sector Job Count Since the Recession Low


RecessionJob Loss

RecoveryJob Gain

ShareRecovered


Share of allJobsRecovered

Natural Resources, Mining andConstruction -4,900 933 19.05% 24.26% 4.40%Manufacturing

-3,667 167 4.55% 18.15% 0.78%Trade, Transportation and Utilities

-4,000 6,200 154.99% 19.80% 29.20%Information

-633 (333) -52.58% 3.14% -1.57%Financial Activities

-1,167 (533) -45.71% 5.78% -2.51%Professional and Business Services

-1,367 2,533 185.37% 6.77% 11.93%Education and Health Services *

3,767 5,066 NM** NM** NM**Leisure and Hospitality

-7,200 5,533 76.85% 35.64% 26.06%Other Services

-1,033 1,167 112.90% 5.12% 5.49%Total Private

-20,200 21,234 105.12% 100.00% 100.00%* No cyclical job loss ** Not Meaningful

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Third-Quarter 2012Average Weekly Wages

Year over year, the Average Weekly Wage (AWW) in the private sectorvalued in current

dollarsfell in Sullivan (-4.96 percent),

Dutchess (-3.39 percent), Orange (-3.18

percent), Putnam (-3.04 percent) and

Ulster (-2.43 percent) and increased in

Rockland (1.75 percent) and Westchester

(.99 percent). Region-wide, the AWW

posted a year-over-year decline of .22

percent, falling from $973 in the third

quarter of 2011 to $971 in the third quarter

of 2012. Relative to nearby regions, the

private-sector wage paid in the Hudson

Valley ranked third ($971) behind theNew York City Region ($1,358) and the

Long Island Region ($982). The Capital

Region ranked fourth at $833. By county,

Westchester ranked second statewide,

Rockland ranked fourth, Dutchess ranked

11th, Putnam ranked 16th and Orange

ranked 28th. Ulster and Sullivan ranked

near the bottom at 45th and 58th,

respectively. The statewide average

private-sector wagewhich is heavily

impacted by the New York City Regionwas $1,0954.

The AWW in the goods-

producing industries (manufacturing,

construction and mining) advanced in

Rockland, Westchester and Sullivan and

fell in Dutchess, Orange, Putnam and

Ulster. The largest percentage increase

occurred in Rockland at 12.78 percent

followed by Westchester and Sullivan at

4.15 percent and .67 percent, respectively.

The AWW fell 3.99 percent in Dutchess,

2.50 percent in Orange, 2.09 percent in

Putnam and .95 percent in Ulster. As is

typically the case, the highest goods-producing wages were paid in Dutchess County at $1,534 followed by

Rockland County at $1,531. The lowest goods-producing wages were paid in Sullivan County at $704.

4 As of the third quarter of 2012, the New York City Region represented 55 percent of all private-sector wages paid statewide.

AWW: Data Source Special Request of theNew York State Department of Labor

Private GovernmentService

ProducingGoods

Producing

Dutchess County2008 $846 $937 $693 $1,4432009 $873 $954 $720 $1,5592010 $873 $971 $736 $1,5242011 $908 $1,013 $763 $1,5982012 $878 $1,016 $748 $1,534

Orange County2008 $666 $908 $644 $8342009 $677 $957 $658 $8382010 $693 $993 $674 $864

2011 $724 $1,020 $705 $8972012 $701 $996 $682 $874

Putnam County2008 $777 $996 $727 $9982009 $821 $947 $752 $1,1462010 $817 $1,016 $772 $1,0422011 $839 $1,151 $805 $1,0132012 $813 $1,129 $780 $992

Rockland County2008 $893 $965 $806 $1,2802009 $876 $949 $793 $1,2762010 $912 $996 $826 $1,3632011 $963 $1,033 $892 $1,3572012 $979 $1,019 $884 $1,531

Sullivan County2008 $560 $782 $544 $6692009 $590 $808 $580 $6682010 $573 $839 $562 $6782011 $623 $876 $616 $7002012 $592 $885 $581 $704

Ulster County2008 $605 $859 $571 $8222009 $604 $861 $576 $8082010 $612 $915 $579 $8302011 $649 $956 $620 $8602012 $633 $984 $606 $852

Westchester County2008 $1,092 $1,142 $1,052 $1,368

2009 $1,058 $1,094 $1,021 $1,3572010 $1,091 $1,197 $1,059 $1,3642011 $1,139 $1,212 $1,106 $1,4272012 $1,151 $1,218 $1,115 $1,486

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The AWW in the private service-providing industries fell in every county except Westchester

which posted a year-over-year increase of .79 percent. The largest percentage decline occurred in Sullivan

at -5.66 percent followed by Orange at -3.31 percent and Putnam at -3.14 percent. The smallest year-over-

year declined occurred in Rockland at -.89 percent.

After posting numerous year-over-year increases, the AWW paid in the public sector declined in

Orange (-2.31 percent), Putnam (-1.91 percent) and Rockland (-1.36 percent) counties. Ulster posted the

highest year-over-year increase at 2.96 percent followed by Sullivan (1.03 percent). Both Westchester and

Dutchess reported increases of less than one half of one percent at .47 percent and .25 percent, respectively.

As of the third quarter of 2012, public-sector wages exceeded private-sector wages in all seven counties,

with the dollar wage premium ranging from a high of $351 in Ulster County to a low of $40 in Rockland

County. Region-wide, the dollar wage premium was $120, below the dollar wage premium in both theCapital ($171) and Long Island regions ($160) but above the wage premium in the New York City (-$205)

Region. Statewide, the wage

premium was -$45.

Since the onset of the

Great Recession, wage gains

have been muted, with low

single digits the norm. Region-

wide, private-sector wages have

grown at an annualized rate of

1.36 percent. With inflation

averaging 2 percent per year,the real AWW has fallen. In contrast, public-sector wages have grown faster (3.54 percent) than inflation,

resulting in a slight increase in the real average weekly wage. As witnessed in the accompanying chart,

wage growth is as varied as the counties in which the wages are paid. One important similarity: the

average worker continues to be impacted by the Great Recession.

CAGR: 2008.3-2012.3, Author CalculationsPrivate Govern. Service Goods

Dutchess County 0.93% 2.05% 1.94% 1.54%

Orange County 1.27% 2.33% 1.44% 1.19%

Putnam County 1.13% 3.17% 1.76% -0.14%

Rockland County 2.34% 1.37% 2.34% 4.58%

Sullivan County 1.41% 3.15% 1.63% 1.29%

Ulster County 1.17% 3.47% 1.49% 0.91%

Westchester County 1.32% 1.61% 1.46% 2.09%

Dutchess

County

Orange

County

Putnam

County

Rockland

County

Sullivan

County

Ulster

County

Westchester

County

DollarPremium $138 $295 $316 $40 $292 $351 $67

PercentPremium 13.62% 29.62% 27.96% 3.90% 33.06% 35.64% 5.54%

13.62%

29.62%27.96%

3.90%

33.06%35.64%

5.54%

$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

$350

$400

0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

25.00%

30.00%

35.00%

40.00%

Dollarpremium

PercentagePremium

PrivatetoPublicWages 2012.3

Data

Source:

New

York

State

Department

of

Labor

QCEW

series

Page 9 of 14


14/18

2000

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

QuarteroverQuarterChange

NumberofMonthlyRecipients

Change in the Average Number of MonthlyFood-Stamp Recipients: Quarterly Data

NumberofMonthlyRecipients QtoverQtChange

Monthly Income Maintenance Benefits(Social Assistance)

Quarter over quarter, the number of Hudson Valley residents who received monthly food-stampbenefits advanced 2.19 percent (4,991), from 228,026 in the third quarter of 2012 to 233,017 in the fourth

quarter of 2012. Everycounty in the region, withthe exception of OrangeCounty, experienced anincrease in the number offood-stamp recipients withWestchester Countyexperiencing the largest-level increase at 3,565followed by Rockland(816), Sullivan (442),Ulster (221), Putnam (110)

and Dutchess (35).Thenumber of food-stamprecipients in OrangeCounty fell (199).Thelargest percentage changeoccurred in Westchester County at 4.55 percent, followed by Putnam at 4.51 percent. In New York State,the number of food-stamp recipients posted a 1.54 percent (47,708) quarter-over-quarter increase.

Food-stamp expenditures increased 18.63 percent from $32.00 million per month in the thirdquarter 2012 to $38.00 million per month in the fourth quarter. The average monthly benefit increasedfrom $140.32 per recipient in the third quarter to 162.90 per recipient in the fourth quarter.

By county, Sullivan was the most dependent on food-stamp benefits at one out of every 5.80persons, followed by Rockland,

Orange and Ulster counties at oneout of every 7.00 per persons, oneout of every 8.30 per persons andone out of every 8.60 persons,respectively. Putnam County wasthe least dependent at one out ofevery 39.20 persons, followed byDutchess County at one out of every12.30 persons and WestchesterCounty at one out of every 11.70persons. In New York State, one outof every 6.20 persons received food-stamp benefits in the fourth quarterof 2012.

Year over year, food-stamp recipients increased 5.91 percent from 220,007 persons per month inthe fourth quarter of 2011 to 233,017 persons in the fourth quarter of 2012. Over the same one-year period,the monthly expenditure for food stamps increased $6.42 million from $31.54 million per month to$38.00 million per month.

Food-Stamp Recipients: Data Source OTDA NYChange 2012.4 over 2012.3 Change 2012.4 over 2011.4

Dutchess 35 0.14% 1,552 6.83%

Orange -199 -0.44% -158 -0.35%

Putnam 110 4.51% 387 17.92%

Rockland 816 1.86% 3,084 7.40%

Sullivan 442 3.47% 1,539 13.21%

Ulster 221 1.06% 944 4.66%

Westchester 3,565 4.55% 5,662 7.42%

Hudson Valley 4,991 2.19% 13,010 5.91%

New York City 27,656 1.50% 41,238 2.26%

New York State 47,708 1.54% 90,925 2.97%

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As of the fourth quarter of 2012:one out of 9.9 persons in the

Hudson Valley received food-

stamp benefits, one out of every69.28 received temporary

assistance benefits and one out ofevery 9.56 received home-energy

assistance.

Across the Hudson Valley the number of residents whoreceived monthly Temporary Assistance (TA) benefitswhichincludes Family Assistance (FA)5 and Safety Net Assistance(SNA)6increased 366 from 32,878 in the third quarter of 2012to 33,244 in the fourth quarter of 2012. The number of TArecipients increased in four of the seven counties. Recipients

increased in Ulster (450), Westchester (138), Rockland (26)and Sullivan (18); fell in Dutchess (-183) and Orange (-84); andwere unchanged in Putnam. The largest percentage changeoccurred in Ulster County with a gain of 12.92 percent,followed by Dutchess at -5.91 percent. Over the same three-month period total TA expenditures were little changed, rising0.21 percent from $13.36 million per month to $13.38 million permonth.

The average monthly per-person SNA and FA benefits were $450.49 and $362.61, respectively,down from $457.10 and up from $364.24 in the third quarter. Within the region, Sullivan County is themost dependent on monthly TA benefits at one out of every 34.53 persons, followed by Ulster andOrange counties at one out of every 46.37 persons and one out of every 53.24 persons, respectively.

Putnam County is the least dependent at one out of every 684.47 persons, followed by Dutchess,Rockland and Westchester counties at one out of every 102.50 persons, one out of every 91.59 personsand one out of every 70.56 persons, respectively. Year over year, TA recipients decreased 2.41 percentfrom 34,064 persons per month in the fourth quarter of 2011 to 33,244 persons in the fourth quarter of2012. Over the same one-year period,the monthly expenditure for TAdecreased 4.26 percent from $14.00million per month to $13.38 millionper month.

Quarter over quarter, thenumber of Hudson Valley residentswho received home-energy

assistance

7

decreased 25.16 percentfrom 107,302 persons per month inthe third quarter of 2012 to 80,302persons in the fourth quarter. Theaverage benefit paid in the fourthquarter was $183.84 per recipient permonth, down from $221.94 per recipient per month in the third quarter. Within the region, the numberof home-energy recipients decreased in each county, including Orange (22,858), Ulster (21,680),Dutchess (11,883), Sullivan (11,358), Rockland (8,092), Westchester (3,354) and Putnam (1,774). Thelargest percentage decrease occurred in Sullivan County at 43.99 percent. Over the same three-monthperiod, home-energy expenditures decreased 38.01 percent from $23.81 million per month in the thirdquarter to $14.76 million per month in the fourth quarter of 2012.

5 As of December 1996, Family Assistance is limited to 60 months per lifetime. To be eligible for Family Assistance, the household must include(care for) a minor child.6 Safety Net Assistance has a lifetime limit of two years.7 The Home Energy Assistance Program (HEAP) is a federally funded program that assists low-income households in paying for the cost of homeheating and the repair and replacement of home heating equipment.

Temporary Assistance Recipients:Data Source OTDA NY

Change 2012.4 over 2012.3 Change 2012.4 over 2011.4

Dutchess -183 -5.91% -39 -1.32%

Orange -84 -1.17% -193 -2.67%

Putnam 0 -0.23% -1 -0.68%

Rockland 26 0.77% -18 -0.52%

Sullivan 18 0.80% 63 2.93%

Ulster 450 12.92% 241 6.53%Westchester 138 1.03% -874 -6.06%

Hudson Valley 366 1.11% -820 -2.41%

New York City 4,972 1.44% 6,170 1.79%

New York State 9,304 1.64% 8,075 1.42%

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Home Sales and Single- and MultiFamilyBuilding Permits

As of the fourth quarter of 2012, the median selling price of an existing single-family home rose

above the post-recession trough in every county in the region with the exception of Orange County.Ulster County reported the highest relative increase at 14.62 percent above the trough followed bySullivan County and Putnam County at 13.64 percent and 9.55 percent, respectively. Rockland reportedthe lowest increase at 3.65 percent while in Orange County the median selling price as of the fourthquarter 2012 was unchanged relative to the trough. In all cases the median selling price remains wellbelow the peak evaluations witnessed during the housing boom. However, it is important to note thatsales activity has begun to accelerate with all counties in the region experiencing a year-over-yearincrease.

For the year of 2012, the demand for single-family construction permits rose 5.44 percent, from809 construction permits with an average cost of $371,393 per permit in 2011 to 853 constructionpermits with an average cost of $269,899 per permit in 2012. Total construction costs fell $70.23 millionfrom $300.46 million in 2011 to $230.23 million in 2012

For the period, Orange County issued the largest number of single-family permits at 314,

followed by Westchester and Sullivan counties at 182 and 100, respectively. Putnam County issued the

Median Housing Values Peak/Trough/2012.4

County

YearQuarter

Peak

Price

PeakMedian

Price

YearQuarterTrough

Price

TroughMedian

Price

DollarChange

Peak and

Trough

PercentChange

Peak and

Trough

MedianPrice

2012.4

DollarChange

2012.4 and

Peak

PercentChange2012.4

and Peak

DollarChange2012.4

and

Trough

PercentChange2012.4

and

Trough

Dutchess 2006.3 $352,000 2011.4 $230,000 -$122,000 -34.66% $250,000 -$102,000 -28.98% $20,000 8.70%

Orange 2007.3 $330,000 2012.4 $234,000 -$96,000 -29.09% $234,000 -$96,000 -29.09% $0 0.00%

Putnam 2006.2 $437,140 2012.1 $277,500 -$159,640 -36.52% $304,000 -$133,140 -30.46% $26,500 9.55%

Rockland 2007.3 $517,000 2011.4 $370,000 -$147,000 -28.43% $383,500 -$133,500 -25.82% $13,500 3.65%

Sullivan 2007.2 $202,500 2012.1 $110,000 -$92,500 -45.68% $125,000 -$77,500 -38.27% $15,000 13.64%

Ulster 2007.3 $265,000 2012.1 $172,750 -$92,250 -34.81% $198,000 -$67,000 -25.28% $25,250 14.62%

Westchester 2007.3 $729,000 2012.1 $505,500 -$223,500 -30.66% $545,000 -$184,000 -25.24% $39,500 7.81%

Year Over Year, Single-Family Housing Permits:U.S. Census Bureau: *Preliminary Numbers

January-December 2012*

January-December 2011

Year-Over-YearChange

Year-Over-YearChange

Area Permits Construction Costs Permits Construction Costs Permits Construction Costs

Dutchess 82 $24,729,016 109 $37,587,644 -24.77% -34.21%Orange 314 $59,963,301 257 $48,290,404 22.18% 24.17%Putnam 42 $12,671,434 53 $16,593,562 -20.75% -23.64%Rockland 70 $21,088,472 93 $22,228,836 -24.73% -5.13%Sullivan 100 $19,721,940 72 $13,967,447 38.89% 41.20%Ulster 63 $10,943,611 43 $12,172,000 46.51% -10.09%Westchester 182 $81,105,902 182 $149,617,293 0.00% -45.79%Hudson Valley 853 $230,223,676 809 $300,457,186 5.44% -23.38%

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least at 42. The number of single-family permits issued declined in Dutchess (27), Rockland (23) and

Putnam (11) and where unchanged in Westchester.

The demand for multifamily permits posted a year-over-year increase from 106 multifamily

permits in 2011 to 130 permits in 2012. The number of multifamily units also increased, rising from 1,016

multifamily units in 2011 to 1,190 multifamily units in 2012. The total budgeted construction cost in 2012

rose 55.72 percent ($49.27 million) from $88.41 million in 2011 to $137.67 million in 2012. Similarly theaverage cost per unit increased 32.95 percent ($28,675) from $87,017 per unit in 2011 to $115,692 in 2012.

Multifamily Construction Permits, JanuaryDecember 2012*Source: U.S. Census Bureau: Preliminary Numbers

County City/Town/VillageNumber ofBuildings

Numberof Units

Value ofConstruction

Permit

AverageConstruction Cost

per UnitDutchessDutchess Total 0 0 $0 $0Orange

Kiryas Joel village 26 270 $30,138,490 $111,624Montgomery village 17 101 $5,542,702 $54,878

New Windsor town 12 185 $18,780,054 $101,514Newburgh town 1 6 $400,003 $66,667Wallkill town 3 78 $9,000,000 $115,385

Orange Total 59 640 $63,861,249 $ 99,783Putnam

Carmel town 4 32 $4,630,844 $144,714Philipstown town 1 2 $350,000 $175,000

Putnam Total 5 34 $4,980,844 $146,495Rockland

New Hempstead village 2 4 $760,000 $190,000New Square village 1 3 $ 450,000 $150,000Ramapo town 29 150 $14,584,201 $ 97,228Spring Valley village 4 8 $1,500,000 $ 187,500

Rockland Total 36 165 $17,294,201 $ 104,813

SullivanFallsburg town 2 4 $162,666 $40,667

Sullivan Total 2 4 $162,666 $40,667Ulster

Plattekill town 1 2 $ 85,000 $42,500Shawangunk town 1 2 $250,000 $125,000

Ulster Total 2 4 $335,000 $ 83,750Westchester

Briarcliff Manor village 4 14 $2,800,000 $200,000Eastchester town 1 10 $1,500,000 $150,000Larchmont village 1 3 $100,000 $33,333Mount Kisco village 1 2 $300,000 $150,000New Rochelle 10 238 $39,074,629 $164,179Peekskill 1 2 $349,000 $174,500

Port Chester village 1 2 $200,000 $ 100,000Somers town 1 8 $986,301 $123,288White Plains 3 50 $4,700,000 $94,000Yonkers 1 2 $250,000 $125,000Yorktown town 2 12 $780,000 $65,000

Westchester Total 26 343 $51,039,930 $148,804

Hudson Valley Total 130 1190 $137,673,890 $115,692

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Sales-Tax Collection

An important indicator of retail sales activity and state and county revenue is sales-tax

collection. Year over year, total sales-tax collection increased 1.58 percent, from $312.70 million in the

fourth quarter of 2011 to $317.64 million in the fourth quarter of 2012. The largest year-over-year dollar

increase occurred in Orange County at $4.00 million (6.36 percent), followed by Rockland and Sullivan

counties at $1.49 million (3.49 percent) and $0.15 million (1.80 percent), respectively. Sales-tax collection

declined -1.29 percent ($551,944) in Dutchess County, -0.31 percent ($83,430) in Ulster County and -0.16

percent ($191,387) in Westchester County.

Sales Tax Collection: Source New York State Department of Finance

2012.Q4 2011.Q4 2010.Q4 2009.Q4 2008.Q4 2007.Q4

Dutchess $42,198,645 $42,750,589 $38,461,604 $35,823,532 $37,116,802 $38,967,669

Orange $66,841,719 $62,844,059 $57,657,798 $53,678,119 $53,364,174 $58,670,749

Putnam $13,135,125 $13,003,622 $12,491,265 $11,704,923 $11,981,110 $12,654,272Rockland $44,157,064 $42,666,628 $43,370,842 $40,009,770 $40,678,402 $44,625,000

Sullivan $8,302,189 $8,155,200 $7,659,613 $7,288,228 $8,226,786 $9,007,987

Ulster $26,665,292 $26,748,722 $24,437,806 $22,502,568 $23,594,487 $25,537,784

Westchester $116,339,028 $116,530,415 $112,253,226 $104,366,233 $108,470,561 $118,255,477

Hudson Valley $317,639,061 $312,699,236 $310,373,142 $288,137,380 $296,511,759 $322,363,655

1.29%

6.36%

1.01%

3.49%

1.80%

0.31% 0.16%

1.58%

2.00%

1.00%

0.00%

1.00%

2.00%

3.00%

4.00%

5.00%

6.00%

7.00%

$1,000,000

$0

$1,000,000

$2,000,000

$3,000,000

$4,000,000

$5,000,000

$6,000,000

Dutchess Orange Putnam Rockland Sullivan Ulster Westchester Hudson

Valley

Yearoveryearchangeindollarscollected Yearoveryearpercentagechange

Hudson Valley Economic Report, 2012 Q4

Documents

Transcript of Hudson Valley Economic Report, 2012 Q4