HS2AA Political Party Conference Presentation

HS2: A Bad Deal for Britain

HS2: A Bad Deal for Britain• HS2 is a waste of money.• HS2 is London centric and won’t

cure the north-south divide.• There are better options for

improving our railways and economy than £33 billion on HS2.• HS2 is environmentally destructive.

HS2: A bad deal for reducing aviation• There are no flights between London and

Birmingham or Leeds for HS2 to replace. • Flights between London and Manchester

have fallen and overwhelmingly cater for passengers transferring to international destinations.

• HS2 is not an alternative to airport expansion, it makes it more likely- it will be much easier in many areas of the UK to travel to Heathrow by train.

Demand for Domestic Aviation is Falling

The airlines love HS2“UK domestic aviation will be unaffected by the limited, London-centric nature of any high-speed rail investment that might be forthcoming over the next few decades.

Indeed, there is a very strong argument that aviation which serves regions like the West Midlands and the north-west will actually see an increase in demand as a result of high speed rail”

FlyBe

HS2: A Bad Deal for Capacity

• Claims that the West Coast Main Line is full do not stack up.• Investing so much in a corridor

which already has one of our fastest and least crowded mainline services is a gross misallocation of resources.

Network Rail’s own figures confirm Euston is one of London’s least busy major stations

And it has the most spare capacityStation Service Group Total Demand as a %

of Total Capacity

Waterloo SW Main Line 110%Paddington Main Line 109%Moorgate All services 103%London Bridge Terminating 102%Victoria Kent routes 97%Blackfriars All services 97%Fenchurch Street All services 94%Marylebone All services 91%Liverpool Street West Anglia 90%St Pancras Midland Mainline 79%Kings Cross ECML 74%Euston Long Distance 64%

Capacity Crisis?

• Passenger kilometres have not been growing at 6% per annum, i.e., journeys are getting shorter

• Most journeys in Britain are well below the minimum efficient distance for high speed rail

• The Government has refused Freedom of Information requests about loadings on West Coast Main Line services

• Crowding on London Midland Euston outer suburban services is a result of inefficient operating practices, and short trains

The West Coast Mainline is not “full”

InterCity West Coast is unique because it has a considerable amount of unused capacity that will expand further with the addition of 106 new Pendolino coaches by the start of our new franchise.

First Group, August 2012

HS2: A Bad Deal for Carbon Reduction

• HS2 is not part of a low carbon or sustainable transport policy.

• HS2 Ltd’s own analysis shows low numbers of passengers would shift from car and air to using the new rail line.

• HS2 would generate significant numbers of new journeys, all of which would emit more carbon than journeys on the existing rail network.

89% of journeys on HS2 will increase emissions

HS2: A Bad Deal for the Environment

• The environmental impact of HS2 is enormous, unacceptable and has not been properly explained by the Government.

• The irreversible damage to the physical environment caused by HS2 and the lack of saving in carbon emissions should be sufficient to cancel the project on sustainability grounds alone.

Domestic aviation accounts for a small proportion of our emissions

HS2 is not “Green”

High speed rail is not a ‘get out of jail’ free card for carbon emissions and climate change. The proposed HS2 trains would burn 50% more energy mile-for-mile than the Eurostar and HS2 would produce more than twice the emissions of an intercity train.

Professor John Whitelegg Green Party Spokesperson on Sustainable Development

If HS2 proceeds, the impact on wildlife and biodiversity will be devastating

•Over 50 ancient woodlands destroyed

•10 sites of Special Scientific Interest directly damaged

•Over 40 other sites of Special Scientific Interest adversely impacted

•Area of Outstanding Natural Beauty changed forever

•Over 5000 acres of productive land required for construction, just for stage one alone

HS2 will devastate wildlife

HS2’s proposed route will destroy over 50 ancient woodlands, eliminating irreplaceable habitats for some of our most precious wildlife

HS2: A Bad Deal For Jobs• HS2 will create few jobs – HS2 Ltd’s own

figures show this.• HS2 will benefit London – increasing

jobs there rather than in the regions.• The opportunity costs of HS2 are vast –

the funds allocated for this project could instead be used to transform our transport system to benefit every community in the UK.

HS2: A Bad deal for Jobs

‘Claims about the “transformational” nature of transport investments should be generally discounted because they have no convincing evidence base to support them’.

Professor Henry OvermanLondon School of Economics House of CommonsTransport Select Committee.

HS2: A Bad Deal for the North

• Direct journeys between our great northern cities will not be possible on HS2.• HS2 will require over £5 billion in

cuts to existing services- including on the West Coast Main Line and Midland Main Line

City Current service Service post HS2 Service Change Summary HS2 serviceCoventry 3 trains/hour, I intermediate

stop1 train/hour, three intermediate stops

Loss of 2 trains/ hour and approx 10 minute longer journey

Nil

Birmingham International

3 trains/hour, 2 intermediate stops

1 train/hour, 4 intermediate stops

Loss of 2 trains/ hour and approx. 10 minute longer journey time

Nil (HS2 will serve Birmingham Interchange)

Birmingham New Street



Loss of 2 trains/ hour and approx. 10 minute longer journey

HS2 service to Curzon Street, three trains an hour

Sandwell and Dudley



Approx. 10 minute longer journey Nil

Wolverhampton 1 train/hour, 5 intermediate stops



Warrington 1 train/hour, non-stop No service No trains at all Phase 1 – 1 HS2 train/hour, Phase 2 – No service

Wigan 1 train/hour, 1 intermediate stop


Approx. 10 minute longer journey Phase 1 – 1 HS2 train/hour, Phase 2 – No service

Preston 1 train/hour, 2 intermediate stops


Approx. 5 minute longer journey 1 train/hour

Lancaster 1 train most hours, 3 intermediate stops



Carlisle 1 train most hours, 5 intermediate stops



Stoke-on-Trent 2 trains/hour (1 non-stop, 1 with 1 intermediate stop)

1 train/hour, 1 intermediate stop

Loss of hourly non-stop train Nil

Wilmslow 1 train/hour, 1 intermediate stop

No service No trains at all Nil

Stockport 3 trains/hour, 2 intermediate stops


Loss of 2 trains/ hour and approx. 5 minute longer journey

Nil

West Coast Main Line Service Cuts With HS2

Midland Main Line Cuts with HS2City/Town Current service Service Post Phase 2 Service Change

SummaryHS2 service (Phase 2 only)

Leicester 4 trains/hour (2 non-stop) 3 trains/hour (1 non-stop)

Loss of 1 non-stop train/hour

Nil

East Midlands Parkway


No service 2 trains/hour calling at an “East Midlands” station. Location not yet

specified, may be between Nottingham and Derby

Nottingham 2 trains/hour 1 train an hour Loss of 1 train/hour No city centre HS2 service. “East Midlands” HS2 station likely to have

poor rail and bus links

Derby 2 trains an hour (1 with one stop, 1 with 4 stops)

2 trains/hour (1 with 3 stops, 1 with 7

stops)

10-15 minute slower journey times

No city centre HS2 service. “East Midlands” HS2 station likely to have

poor rail and bus links

Chesterfield 2 trains/hour (1 with 2 stops, 1 with 5 stops)

1 train/hour, with 4 stops

Loss of one train/hour, with 10 minute longer

journey time

Nil

Sheffield 2 trains/hour (1 with 3 stops, 1 with 6 stops)

1 train/hour, with 5 stops

Loss of one train per hour, 10-15 minute

slower journey times

No city centre HS2 service. “South Yorkshire” HS2 station shown to have

3 trains an hour, but likely to have poor rail and bus links

HS2: A Bad Deal for the Midlands• Birmingham is not even on the main HS2 line;

it is on a branch served by trains running to a terminus at Curzon Street, remote from New Street (the main city station).

• Curzon Street is on the southern periphery of the city centre, and not particularly well located with respect to the central business district.

• Most commuter flows into Birmingham would not be relieved by HS2

• The site of the HS2 ‘Birmingham interchange’ at Bickenhill, is in Solihull borough, but difficult to reach from Solihull town centre

HS2 would provide no measurable time advantage for most West Midlands residents; as the additional (transfer-to and waiting-)time at Curzon Street exceeds half an hour, HS2 s higher ′speed is nullified.

HS2: A Bad Deal for the Midlands

HS2: A Bad Deal for London• Massive disruption to the borough of Camden• Concentrating fast trains from Scotland,

Northern England, and the Midlands, on one central London arrival point

• Concentrating fast trains from Scotland, Northern England, and the Midlands, on a single track in each direction

• Dispersing central London traffic arriving from Scotland, Northern England, and the Midlands, from one Underground station.

• Sheffield — Northampton• Peterborough — Leeds• London — Wakefield• London — Bradford• London — Stockport• Watford — Manchester• Milton Keynes — Bolton• Doncaster — London

• Sheffield — Nottingham• Chester — Milton Keynes• Wolverhampton — London• Coventry — London• Stoke-on-Trent — London• Stoke-on-Trent — Watford• Halifax — Coventry• Nottingham — Huddersfield• Bristol — Derby

HS2 will have just four city centre stations: London, Birmingham, Leeds and Manchester. Everyone else loses with HS2

HS2: A Bad Deal for Scotland

• HS2 represents a huge investment to benefit very few Scottish rail travellers – 92% of all rail journeys in Scotland begin and end in Scotland.

• The funds that Scotland will contribute to HS2 would be better used to improve its own transport infrastructure.

Even with HS2’s massively overinflated demand model and other assumptions the West Coast Main Line to Scotland never gets more than 50% full.

The view from AmericaIn 2008 US Amtrak’s Inspector General reported that six European nations’ operations required a subsidy of US$42bn annually“…Virtually no HSR lines anywhere in the world have earned enough revenue to cover both their construction and operating costs.” US Congressional Research Service

“Before going ahead with HS2 we need a robust cost benefit analysis.

Some of the Department’s assumptions about the benefits of faster travel are simply untenable. For example, the time business travellers save by using high speed rail is valued at £54 per hour yet the time commuters save getting to and from work is only valued at £7 per hour.

It is difficult to see how this can be justified.”

Margaret Hodge MPChair, House of Commons Public Accounts Committee

HS2AA Political Party Conference Presentation

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