How_to_maximize_the_number_of_spots

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Follow up to AD Report: How to maximize the number of spots among the BEST Channels by Daypart

Transcript of How_to_maximize_the_number_of_spots

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Follow up to AD Report:How to maximize the number of spots among

the BEST Channels by Daypart

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Goal

• A previous report detailed an analytic process that identified dominant PRIZM clusters that were used to develop a multivariate target criteria that combined several key dimensions into a single score that calculated the propensity for funded 1st loans.

• Using several estimates of cost-per-spot, a Linear Programming solution was setup.

• Drilling down on the Early Morning day part, we compare several LP solutions against theactual buy for Q1-2007.

Results indicate that we can calculate a solution that will select MORE spots within the SAMEbudget and that these selected channels include stations not previously bought.

While the last statement is fact, this last conclusion need testing, as we further expectthat the suggested media plan will yield a more qualified fund 1st applicant as a direct resultof the building processes detailed in the previous report called AD report.

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Early Morning

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Costs per spot EM 15 second spots.Using recent data for Q1 2007that included competitive Ads, an average cost per spot was calculated for each condition by daypart.

This information is used to access allprevious purchased AND new Ads.To minimize the effect of the a groupnegotiated rate, the competitive ratewas used. This allows a fair evaluation of all spots.

Four Master Channel files were made:

Daypart Channel Competitive Competitive Competitive Ditech Ditech Ditech Cost15Total Cost # of Spots Mean Total Cost # of Spots Mean

EM AEN $5,117 19 $269 $68,696 311 $221 269$ EM AMC $896 1 $896 $34,147 83 $411 896$ EM APL $8,430 10 $843 843$ EM BBCA $10,706 47 $228 228$ EM BIO $848 64 $13 13$ EM BRVO $1,810 5 $362 $16,869 52 $324 362$ EM CMT $8,487 41 $207 207$ EM CNBC $6,075 14 $434 $100,232 167 $600 434$ EM CNN $83,369 45 $1,853 $651,520 300 $2,172 1,853$ EM COUR $729 3 $243 $243 1 $243 243$ EM DHLT $521 6 $87 87$ EM DISC $7,320 9 $813 $1,064 2 $532 813$ EM DTMS $232 3 $77 77$ EM ESP2 $945 5 $189 $4,074 3 $1,358 189$ EM ESPN $18,383 19 $968 968$ EM FOOD $55,251 69 $801 801$ EM FOXN $9,094 6 $1,516 $335,809 219 $1,533 1,516$ EM FUSE $3,298 104 $32 32$ EM FX $42,377 121 $350 350$ EM G4 $150 4 $38 38$ EM GAC $9,035 75 $120 120$ EM GOLF $1,612 8 $202 202$ EM GSN $5,209 7 $744 744$ EM HALL $21,006 44 $477 477$ EM HGTV $217,183 343 $633 633$ EM HI $6 3 $2 2$ EM HIST $3,936 17 $232 $49,479 219 $226 232$ EM HLN $38,854 46 $845 $220,015 246 $894 845$ EM MIL $236 4 $59 $1,408 18 $78 59$ EM MSNB $1,664 2 $832 $168,381 191 $882 832$ EM MTV $19,546 29 $674 674$ EM MTV2 $1,240 17 $73 73$ EM NFLN $1,965 9 $218 218$ EM NGC $605 7 $86 86$ EM OXYG $6,726 17 $396 396$ EM SCFI $1,062 7 $152 $9,998 117 $85 152$ EM SOAP $9,797 22 $445 $27,228 53 $514 445$ EM SPD $201 3 $67 67$ EM SPK $306 1 $306 $15,576 30 $519 306$ EM STYL $9,910 53 $187 187$ EM TBSC $561 1 $561 $78,485 151 $520 561$ EM TNT $21,018 36 $584 584$ EM TRAV $1,029 15 $69 69$ EM TVL $2,079 9 $231 $40,428 165 $245 231$ EM TWC $13,520 29 $466 466$ EM USA $8,499 15 $567 $2,115 5 $423 567$ EM VS $2,709 35 $77 77$

Includes Proper Aliases for each Channel

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Development of an objective function

Target_ Target33_ Total_ DEAD_ Funded_ Total_ Total_Network Dominance Pull Cancels Lead First All Target Cost15

BBCA -0.6996 2.4974 -1.4157 -2.3469 0.0106 5.5709 2.5080 $228FNC 3.7836 0.9056 -0.3449 -0.2798 -0.2783 5.0355 0.6273 $1,516STYL -0.6230 0.8755 -1.0039 -0.5938 1.3264 3.1765 2.2018 $187Soap -0.3003 0.1781 -2.7184 2.3053 2.6371 2.9279 2.8151 $445HI -0.7774 0.4987 -1.4164 -1.4686 0.3069 2.9132 0.8056 $2USA 2.6623 -0.7676 -0.3877 -0.1520 0.0622 2.4965 -0.7054 $567Court -0.4458 1.4198 1.2229 -0.7353 1.8952 2.3816 3.3150 $243TNT 2.2364 -0.9787 0.3564 -0.5048 0.9278 2.3339 -0.0509 $584TBS 0.8172 0.3531 0.1635 -0.2143 0.7997 2.0209 1.1528 $561CNN 1.0321 0.3687 -0.0744 -0.8747 -0.3904 1.9594 -0.0217 $1,853MSNBC 1.6625 0.8647 0.4075 0.3100 0.0585 1.8681 0.9232 $832ESPN 0.9762 1.0575 -0.1068 0.4986 -0.0349 1.6069 1.0226 $968BIO -0.6460 1.0095 -1.1971 -0.4225 -0.5518 1.4312 0.4577 $13DTMS -0.5739 -1.0795 -0.9278 -1.3272 0.7735 1.3751 -0.3061 $77A&E 0.5087 -0.0058 -1.1047 -0.3950 -0.7004 1.3023 -0.7062 $269MTV2 -0.6465 0.3305 -0.2575 0.0970 1.0322 0.8766 1.3627 $73NGC -0.6519 0.5893 1.5367 -0.7628 1.4796 0.6431 2.0689 $86HGTV 0.2954 0.9482 -0.2541 1.0241 -0.3324 0.1412 0.6158 $633HLN -0.0170 -1.1274 0.0914 -1.1451 0.1891 0.0984 -0.9384 $845

A previous report described the use of Total All,( a multivariate composite that discounts targetdefinition by Cancels and Dead Leads), withina specific daypart (this example is EM)

Appending the 15 Second Competitive Rate,the objective function of an LP was defined as

Maximizing the Total All score

If we assume a -1 call to 1 spot- base, the TotalAll score can be used as a multiplier that isexpected to improve the funded 1st closing rate per call. (BBCA will draw 5 times the mean)

Note we can also substitute the Total Target definition and recalibrate to focus on Total Mortgage Market.

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Development of Constraints I

• Current Daypart Cost Distribution of EM Q1 2007 included Length of Spot

• 19,266 15-second spots costing $10,804,934• 10,506 30-second spots costing $ 9,111,289

• EM – Q1 2007 had

• 3,468 15-second spots costing $2,265,383• 1,957 30-second spots costing $1,440,090

• Previous Report suggests a redistribution increasing PR by reducing other day parts

• We discounted the previous by a 49% to follow this recommendation

• New EM spend is now constrained to

• 2,104 15-second spots costing $1,163,305• 1,337 30-second spots costing $ 739,505

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Total Budgetary SHIFT by Day part

Total Spend Q1 2007 was$19,916,223 for 29,772 spots.

A shift in day part is suggestedthat will result in more PR.

Adjustment factors were calculatedthat redistribute dollars and counts toconform to the suggested profile.

Note : This example suggests no ON and LN with a 2.4 + fold increase in PR.

New solutions MUST be at the adjustedbudget total in terms of dollars AND MUSTbe at the previous number of spots or GREATER !

Q1-2007 Suggested Adjustment Original Suggested Original # AdjustedFactor Spend Spend Spots # Spots

EM 18.5 9.5 0.51 $3,705,473 $1,902,810.46 5,425 3,441DT 32.0 30.5 0.95 $6,397,218 $6,097,348.41 12,056 12,146EF 24.5 25.7 1.05 $4,904,117 $5,144,318.65 7,456 8,476PR 14.0 34.0 2.43 $2,800,298 $6,800,723.71 2,216 6,037LN 7.9 0.0 0.00 $1,590,586 $0.00 1,370 0ON 2.8 0.0 0.00 $572,265 $0.00 1,249 0

99.7 99.7 $19,969,957 $19,945,201.23 29,772 30,100

15 19,266 $10,804,93430 10,506 $9,111,289

29,772 $19,916,223

Original Original Adjusted Adjusted# Spots $ Cost $ Cost # Spots

EM 15 3,468 2,265,383 61.14% 1,163,305 2,104EM 30 1,957 1,440,090 38.86% 739,505 1,337

5,425 3,705,473 1,902,810 3,441

DT 15 7,734 3,820,751 59.73% 3,641,653 7,254DT 30 4,322 2,576,467 40.27% 2,455,695 4,892

12,056 6,397,218 6,097,348 12,146

EF 15 5,074 2,910,105 59.53% 3,062,594 5,046EF 30 2,382 1,978,074 40.47% 2,081,724 3,430

7,456 4,888,179 5,144,318 8,476

PR 15 1,267 1,115,543 40.16% 2,731,037 2,424PR 30 949 1,662,339 59.84% 4,069,686 3,613

2,216 2,777,882 6,800,723 6,037

LN 15 817 462,083LN 30 553 1,120,813

1,370

ON 15 906 231,069ON 30 343 333,506

1,249

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Development of Constraints II

• Since the Objective Function ONLY contains those selected channels whose MultivariateTotal All score ranked them high, it was assumed that each should be used at least once aday (this can be easily adjusted based upon feed back).

•Saturation on a channel within daypart was defined as 1 spot each half- hour in that daypart (Maximum 8 spots within EM defined as 4 hours 6:00 to 9:59).(this can be easily adjusted based upon feed back).

•The cost constraint used the competitive rate per channel to set two additional constraints

•The total spend had to be <= then recommended Budget for that daypart and length

•The total spots had to be >= then previous purchased number of spots

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Previous EM 15 Second Spots and Volume

Channel ditech_Total_cost ditech_Number_of_spots Channel ditech_Total_cost ditech_Number_of_spotsAEN $68,696 311 GSN $5,209 7AMC $34,147 83 HALL $21,006 44APL $8,430 10 HGTV $217,183 343BBCA $10,706 47 HI $6 3BIO $848 64 HIST $49,479 219BRVO $16,869 52 HLN $220,015 246CMT $8,487 41 MIL $1,408 18CNBC $100,232 167 MSNB $168,381 191CNN $651,520 300 NFLN $1,965 9COUR $243 1 OXYG $6,726 17DHLT $521 6 SCFI $9,998 117DISC $1,064 2 SOAP $27,228 53DTMS $232 3 SPK $15,576 30ESP2 $4,074 3 STYL $9,910 53FOOD $55,251 69 TBSC $78,485 151FOXN $335,809 219 TNT $21,018 36FUSE $3,298 104 TRAV $1,029 15FX $42,377 121 TVL $40,428 165G4 $150 4 TWC $13,520 29GAC $9,035 75 USA $2,115 5

VS $2,709 35

This totals to 3,468 spots costing $2,265,383. The objective of this report is to compare thislist against an profile-optimized list that was further cost-optimized by reach of each channel

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LP solution for EM 15 second spots

Model:MAX =5.5 * BBCA + 5.03 * FNC + 3.17 * STYL + 2.92 * SOAP + 2.91 * HI+ 2.49 * USA +

2.38 * Court + 2.33 * TNT + 2.02 * TBS + 1.95 * CNN + 1.86 * MSNBC + 1.60 * ESPN + 1.43 * BIO + 1.37 * DTMS + 1.30 * ANE + .87 * MTV2 + .64 * NGC + .14 * HGTV + .09 * HLN + .02 * GSN ;

BBCA >= 90 ;FNC >= 90 ;STYL >=90 ;……..BBCA <= 720;FNC <= 720;STYL <= 720;…………..227 * BBCA + 1515 * FNC + 186 * STYL + 445 * SOAP + 2 * HI + 556 * USA + 243 * Court + 583 * TNT + 561 * TBS + 1852 * CNN+ 832 * MSNBC + 967 * ESPN + 13 * BIO + 77 * DTMS + 269 * ANE+ 72 * MTV2 + 86 * NGC + 633 * HGTV + 844 * HLN + 744 * GSN <= 1,163,305;! <= 2265383 – Unadjusted Actual Spend;

BBCA + FNC + STYL + SOAP + HI + USA + Court + TNT + TBS + CNN + MSNBC + ESPN + BIO + DTMS + ANE + MTV2 + NGC + HGTV + HLN + GSN > = 2,104;!>= 3468 – Unadjusted Actual Number of Spots;

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LP solution for EM 15 second spots

Global optimal solution found.Objective value: 10641.06Total solver iterations: 1

Variable Value Reduced CostBBCA 720.0000 0.000000FNC 90.00000 0.000000STYL 90.00000 0.000000SOAP 90.00000 0.000000HI 720.0000 0.000000USA 90.00000 0.000000

COURT 90.00000 0.000000TNT 90.00000 0.000000TBS 90.00000 0.000000CNN 90.00000 0.000000

MSNBC 90.00000 0.000000ESPN 90.00000 0.000000BIO 720.0000 0.000000DTMS 703.1818 0.000000ANE 90.00000 0.000000MTV2 90.00000 0.000000NGC 90.00000 0.000000HGTV 90.00000 0.000000HLN 90.00000 0.000000GSN 90.00000 0.000000

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LP solution for EM 15 second spots

This solution was bought at a cost of $ 1,163,291 for 4,303 15 second spots

NOTE :

Un Optimized Actual Q1 2007 totals to 3,468 spots costing $2,265,383

We are getting significantly MORE spots for LESS dollars expecting 2.47 calls per spot (versus 1:1 ) AND expecting a better closing Funded 1st rate.

The same approach was repeated for EM 30 second picks

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Previous EM 30 Second Spots and Volume

This totals to 1,957 spots costing $1,440,090. As in the EM 15 cost redistribution, thesenumbers were discounted to 1,337 spots costing $739,505

Channel ditech_Total_cost ditech_Number_of_spots Channel ditech_Total_cost ditech_Number_of_spotsAEN $27,639 25 GSN $22,032 15AMC $5,171 7 HALL $19,551 21APL $32,269 48 HGTV $68,984 19BBCA $6,200 58 HI $439 82BIO $1,247 45 HIST $76,280 122BRVO $11,401 8 HLN $34,509 19CMDY $4,718 14 LMN $2,890 3CNBC $26,058 19 MIL $9,608 60DHLT $19,715 81 MSNB $369,925 209DSCI $964 4 NFLN $12,523 9DTMS $270 2 OXYG $459 1ENN $5,934 73 SCFI $26,601 149ESCL $4,298 56 SOAP $35,062 32ESP2 $55,959 51 STYL $50,160 136ESPN $70,057 27 TBSC $29,777 28FOXN $144,909 46 TNT $17,652 4FX $165,454 263 TRAV $18,038 12G4 $1,916 16 TVL $25,273 47GAC $15,752 65 VS $20,396 81

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Costs per spot EM and Objective Function for 30 second spots.

Total_ Only_Target_ Target33_Total_ DEAD_ Funded_ total_ total_

Network DominancPull Cancels Lead First all target cost30

CNBC 0.2494 0.4252 -1.2375 -2.0985 2.2366 6.2472 2.6618 $901FNC 4.1900 0.8791 -0.4616 -0.3340 -0.4468 5.4179 0.4324 $3,134GSN -0.8472 1.8248 -1.6942 -1.8213 0.5479 5.0409 2.3727 $1,452HGTV 0.2150 1.0366 -0.4705 -0.4267 0.8853 3.0341 1.9219 $2,675ESPN 1.0319 1.1002 -0.2802 -0.0937 0.3759 2.8819 1.4762 $2,752MSNBC 1.9316 0.8869 0.3057 -0.2067 0.0881 2.8076 0.9751 $1,682Soap -0.2057 0.3226 -2.8778 2.8025 2.5459 2.7380 2.8685 $849USA 3.0236 -0.7968 -0.3206 0.2425 -0.0931 2.2119 -0.8899 $880Hall -0.3441 0.8634 0.0052 -2.1801 -0.5533 2.1408 0.3101 $939A&E 0.5963 0.1052 -1.1218 -0.5685 -0.3001 2.0917 -0.1949 $806CNN 1.2802 0.5920 -0.1769 -0.5468 -0.8749 1.7211 -0.2829 $3,879VH-1 -0.0270 1.4922 0.8624 -0.6003 0.5097 1.7129 2.0019 $606BIO -0.6880 1.0626 -1.2469 -0.3705 -0.3244 1.6676 0.7382 $42DHLT -0.6627 0.0813 -0.3618 -1.0289 0.6212 1.4305 0.7025 $257Speed -0.5681 0.7087 1.6632 -2.1987 0.5637 1.2398 1.2724 $523Trav -0.7841 0.5265 0.5612 0.6677 2.4986 1.0121 3.0251 $1,529ENN -0.5079 0.5649 0.9495 0.3018 1.9340 0.7398 2.4989 $71BBCA -0.7300 2.5068 -1.4512 0.2042 -2.2870 0.7368 0.2198 $91ESPN2 0.3851 0.4017 1.5467 -1.5966 -0.1226 0.7142 0.2791 $480AMC 0.8107 -0.9002 -0.1666 -0.3643 0.0415 0.4829 -0.8586 $835VS -0.5507 -0.1820 -0.0013 -0.5098 0.6468 0.4252 0.4648 $422FX 0.0120 -0.0637 -0.0750 -0.5304 -0.4079 0.1459 -0.4716 $921OXYG -0.6339 -1.0008 -0.4544 0.5063 1.7609 0.0744 0.7601 $857Life -0.4581 -0.5192 -1.0435 0.1467 0.1283 0.0478 -0.3909 $2,030

Objective FunctionCosts

Daypart Channel Competitive Competitive Competitive Ditech Ditech Ditech Cost30Total Cost # of Spots Mean Total Cost # of Spots Mean

EM AEN $54,805 68 $806 $27,639 25 $1,106 $806EM AMC $32,553 39 $835 $5,171 7 $739 $835EM APL $1,880 4 $470 $32,269 48 $672 $470EM BBCA $273 3 $91 $6,200 58 $107 $91EM BET $67,676 32 $2,115 $2,115EM BIO $42 1 $42 $1,247 45 $28 $42EM BRVO $12,807 12 $1,067 $11,401 8 $1,425 $1,067EM CMDY $37,371 41 $911 $4,718 14 $337 $911EM CMT $2,968 8 $371 $371EM CNBC $112,622 125 $901 $26,058 19 $1,371 $901EM CNN $155,157 40 $3,879 $3,879EM COUR $1,461 3 $487 $487EM DHLT $25,699 100 $257 $19,715 81 $243 $257EM DISC $53,888 22 $2,449 $2,449EM DSCI $53,793 149 $361 $964 4 $241 $361EM DTMS $270 2 $135 $135EM ENN $5,179 73 $71 $5,934 73 $81 $71EM ENT $14,280 14 $1,020 $1,020EM ESCL $1,020 44 $23 $4,298 56 $77 $23EM ESP2 $21,606 45 $480 $55,959 51 $1,097 $480EM ESPN $192,617 70 $2,752 $70,057 27 $2,595 $2,752EM FAM $11,042 12 $920 $920EM FOOD $28,935 12 $2,411 $2,411EM FOXN $560,933 179 $3,134 $144,909 46 $3,150 $3,134EM FX $69,958 76 $921 $165,454 263 $629 $921EM G4 $779 11 $71 $1,916 16 $120 $71EM GAC $2,448 10 $245 $15,752 65 $242 $245

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LP solution for EM 30 second spotsModel:MAX = 6.24 * CNBC + 5.41 * FNC + 5.04 * GSN + 3.03 * HGTV + 2.88 * ESPN + 2.80 * MSNBC + 2.73 * SOAP + 2.21 * USA + 2.14 * Hall + 2.05 * ANE + 1.72 * CNN + 1.71 * VH-1 + 1.66 * BIO+ 1.43 * DHLT + 1.23 * Speed + 1.01 * TRAV + .73 * ENN + .73 * BBCA + .71 * ESPN2 + .48 * AMC + .42 * VS + .14 * FX + .07 * OXYG + .04 * Life;

CNBC >= 20;FNC > = 20;GSN >= 20;…….CNBC <= 720;FNC <= 720;GSN <= 720;…..

900 * CNBC + 3133 * FNC + 1452 * GSN + 2675 * HGTV + 2751 * ESPN + 1682 * MSNBC + 849 * SOAP + 879 * USA + 938 * Hall + 805 * ANE + 3878 * CNN + 605 * VH-1 + 42 * BIO+ 256 * DHLT + 522 * Speed + 1529 * TRAV + 70 * ENN + 91 * BBCA + 480 * ESPN2 + 834 * AMC + 422 * VS + 920 * FX + 857 * OXYG + 2030 * Life <= 739;505! <= 1440090;

CNBC + FNC + GSN + HGTV + ESPN + MSNBC + SOAP + USA + Hall + ANE + CNN + VH-1 + BIO+ DHLT + Speed + TRAV + ENN + BBCA + ESPN2 + AMC + VS + FX + OXYG + Life >= 1,337;! <= 1957;

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LP solution for EM 30 second spotsGlobal optimal solution found.Objective value: 3288.864Total solver iterations: 1

Variable Value Reduced CostCNBC 47.55667 0.000000FNC 20.00000 0.000000GSN 20.00000 0.000000HGTV 20.00000 0.000000ESPN 20.00000 0.000000MSNBC 20.00000 0.000000SOAP 20.00000 0.000000USA 20.00000 0.000000HALL 20.00000 0.000000ANE 20.00000 0.000000CNN 20.00000 0.000000VH 21.00000 0.000000BIO 720.0000 0.000000DHLT 20.00000 0.000000SPEED 20.00000 0.000000TRAV 20.00000 0.000000ENN 720.0000 0.000000BBCA 720.0000 0.000000ESPN2 20.00000 0.000000AMC 20.00000 0.000000VS 20.00000 0.000000FX 20.00000 0.000000

OXYG 20.00000 0.000000LIFE 20.00000 0.000000

Note : Constraint IIwas lowered to 20per quarter to permita feasible solution

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LP solution for EM 30 second spots

This solution was bought at a cost of $ 740,067 for 2,609 30-second spots

NOTE :

Un Optimized Actual Q1 2007 totals to 1,957 spots costing $ 1,440,090

We are getting significantly MORE spots for LESS dollars expecting 1.26 calls per spot (versus 1:1 ) AND expecting a better closing Funded 1st rate.

The same approach will be repeated for other day parts if approved.

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Conclusions on the EM Daypart

• Two new solutions were created that BOTH significantly INCREASE the number ofspots bought over those recently purchased for MORE budget .

This new solutions included new channels and were selected based upon a Multivariate composite score that sought to maximize Fund 1st applicants.

Combining both the 15 and 30 second suggested buys creates a DOMINANT stake in

BBCA & BIO – in both 15 and 30 second spots

Other strong positions are in ENN for 30 second spots and DTMS for 15 second spots.