HowHow to prioritize to prioritize climate change climate change

adaptation measures?adaptation measures?

Yeora Chae

ContentsContentsIntroductionIntroduction

Climate change adaptation Climate change adaptation

Prioritizing adaptation optionsPrioritizing adaptation options

Identifying evaluation criteriaIdentifying evaluation criteria

Further stepsFurther steps

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• Even if stringent global GHG emissions reductions prove to be successful, further climate change seems to be inevitable (IPCC 2007)

• Climate change impacts will be unevenly distributed and put additional pressure on social-ecological functions and structures.

11. Research needs. Research needs

. Introduction. Introduction

structures.

• Policy makers at national and local levels have begun to initiated dedicated adaptation practices to counter adverse impacts.

• Formal planning for climate change adaptation is emerging rapidly

• To maximize the benefit of adaptation, prioritizing adaptation options are essential

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2. Research tasks2. Research tasks2. Research tasks2. Research tasks2. Research tasks2. Research tasks2. Research tasks2. Research tasks

• To investigate adaptation measures and plan

• To categorizes adaptation options

• To analyze methodologies for evaluating

adaptation optionsadaptation options

• Multi-criteria analysis, cost-benefit analysis, etc.

• To develop a methodology for prioritizing

adaptation options

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1.1. Objective of adaptation: Objective of adaptation: What is successful adaptation?What is successful adaptation?

. Climate change adaptation. Climate change adaptation

• To maintain climate-related risks at present level• To reduce risks from present level if current risks are

unacceptableunacceptable• To minimize exposure of most vulnerable population

• cost effectiveness• equity: distribution of benefit• sustainability

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22. . Classification adaptation strategiesClassification adaptation strategies

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33. The percentage of adaptation strategies. The percentage of adaptation strategies

Benjamin L. Preston(2011)

The ‘percentage of plans incorporating the specified strategy’ representsthe proportion of the 57 adaptation plans that had at least one adaptationoption consistent with a given adaptation strategy (UKCIP 2008).

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4. The Current Situation of Korea adaptation 4. The Current Situation of Korea adaptation strategies (group)strategies (group)

80

100

120

140

Exploiting new opportunities

Avoiding or reducing the risks

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0

20

40

60

Avoiding or reducing the risks

Sharing or spreading the risks

Gathering and sharing information

Creating a supportive institutional frameworkCreating supportive social structures

Bearing the risks

Public Relations, Education, and International Cooperation

55. The Current Situation of Korea adaptation . The Current Situation of Korea adaptation strategies (type)strategies (type)

Exploiting new opportunities

Avoiding or reducing the risks

Sharing or spreading the risks

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Bearing the risks

Creating a supportive institutional framework

Creating supportive social structures

Gathering and sharing information

1. The process of evaluation in adaptation1. The process of evaluation in adaptation1. The process of evaluation in adaptation1. The process of evaluation in adaptation1. The process of evaluation in adaptation1. The process of evaluation in adaptation1. The process of evaluation in adaptation1. The process of evaluation in adaptation

1) Identification of core stages in adaptation planning from the decision science and development evaluation literature

2) Identification of critical planning processes associated

. . Prioritizing adaptation optionsPrioritizing adaptation options

2) Identification of critical planning processes associated with each planning stage that can be used as evaluation criteria

3) Selection of adaptation plans for evaluation

4) Scoring of plans against evaluation criteria

5) Categorization of adaptation options embodied within plans

Benjamin L. Preston et al.(2011)10

1) Organizing stakeholder group

2) Listening stakeholder s opinion in pre-assessment

3) Building adaptation assessment framework through legal,

social, political process

22222222. The process of evaluation in adaptation . The process of evaluation in adaptation . The process of evaluation in adaptation . The process of evaluation in adaptation . The process of evaluation in adaptation . The process of evaluation in adaptation . The process of evaluation in adaptation . The process of evaluation in adaptation (Han, (Han, (Han, (Han, (Han, (Han, (Han, (Han, 20072007200720072007200720072007))))))))

social, political process

4) Vulnerability assessment

5) Identification of priority option through stakeholder s

agreement

6) Public hearing

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1) Benefits of adaptation occurs far future and uncertain.

2) Hard to measure benefits of adaptation

3) Benefits of adaptation may be realized by combination of

options: hard to measure each option s individual benefit

33333333. The feature of evaluation in adaptation. The feature of evaluation in adaptation. The feature of evaluation in adaptation. The feature of evaluation in adaptation. The feature of evaluation in adaptation. The feature of evaluation in adaptation. The feature of evaluation in adaptation. The feature of evaluation in adaptation

options: hard to measure each option s individual benefit

4) Climate change impacts would differ depending on

physical, economic, social condition: regional, sectoral

analysis required.

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• Climate change impacts &

risk

• physical, economic, social

condition

• feature of adaptation options

Cos-benefit analysis

44444444. The criterion of evaluation in adaptation. The criterion of evaluation in adaptation. The criterion of evaluation in adaptation. The criterion of evaluation in adaptation. The criterion of evaluation in adaptation. The criterion of evaluation in adaptation. The criterion of evaluation in adaptation. The criterion of evaluation in adaptation

• Cos-benefit analysis

• main-streaming

• Environmental aspect

• legal aspect

• Policy aspect

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Sergio Margulis et al.(2008)

55555555. Relevant criteria for adaptation assessment. Relevant criteria for adaptation assessment. Relevant criteria for adaptation assessment. Relevant criteria for adaptation assessment. Relevant criteria for adaptation assessment. Relevant criteria for adaptation assessment. Relevant criteria for adaptation assessment. Relevant criteria for adaptation assessment

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66666666. Summary of Assessment methods. Summary of Assessment methods. Summary of Assessment methods. Summary of Assessment methods. Summary of Assessment methods. Summary of Assessment methods. Summary of Assessment methods. Summary of Assessment methods

Lead Authors(1998) Adaptation to Climate Change: Theory and Assessment” 21p.

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1) Ensuring reduction in societal and ecological vulnerability:

One of the key aims of climate adaptation is to reduce the vulnerability of

human and natural systems to the effects of climate variability and

change.(or, in other words, the avoidance of ‘dangerous’ climate change)

2) Learning and adaptive management:

77777777. Role of adaptation evaluation . Role of adaptation evaluation . Role of adaptation evaluation . Role of adaptation evaluation . Role of adaptation evaluation . Role of adaptation evaluation . Role of adaptation evaluation . Role of adaptation evaluation

2) Learning and adaptive management:

Climate adaptation is fundamentally a process of social learning.

3) Need for accountability in an evidence-based policy environment:

From a governance perspective, investments in adaptation and the

outcomes they achieve must be transparent.

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8. 8. Progress Progress Progress Progress Progress Progress Progress Progress on Adaptation on Adaptation on Adaptation on Adaptation on Adaptation on Adaptation on Adaptation on Adaptation

Fréedéeric Gagnon-Lebrun and Shardul Agrawala(2006), "Progress on Adaptation to Climate Change in Deveoped Countries", OECD

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1010101010101010. Multi. Multi. Multi. Multi. Multi. Multi. Multi. Multi--------criteria Analysis for Adaptation Optioncriteria Analysis for Adaptation Optioncriteria Analysis for Adaptation Optioncriteria Analysis for Adaptation Optioncriteria Analysis for Adaptation Optioncriteria Analysis for Adaptation Optioncriteria Analysis for Adaptation Optioncriteria Analysis for Adaptation Option

ICAS(2011). “International Symposium Promoting Synergies Among Adaptation Networks in the Asia-Pacific Region”. 19

1111111111111111. . . . . . . . Selection criteria for adaptation options (Klein et al. 1997)

• # of countries, or population affected by climate change impacts

• probability of climate change risk

• Irreversible higher cost impacts

• Tendency on mal-adaptation• Tendency on mal-adaptation

• Long-term projects like infrastructure

- Urgency- No-regret characteristics of options- Co-benefits of other sectors and domains- Mitigation effect

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� Previous studies

� Recommendation from other institutions, organizations

. . Identifying evaluation criteriaIdentifying evaluation criteria

11. . Selection of evaluation criteriaSelection of evaluation criteria

organizations

� Expert survey

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� Experts: adaptation scientist ( ), Policy analysits ( ), policy makers ( )

� Evaluation criteria, concepts, assessment concepts, assessment methodology, etc.

� Selection among criteria

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22. Evaluation criteria. Evaluation criteria

Evaluation criteriaconcept

Climate기change기risk

Climate change risks Climate change risks (Probability)

Climate change impacts # of people, area affected by clima te change

Timing Timing of climate change impacts occur

Intensity of climate change # of mortality, morbidity, d amage cost ($)

Equity Consideration of vulnerable group

Policy

Equity Consideration of vulnerable group

Democracy Consensus on stakeholders’ opinion

main-streaming

- Identification of ways in adaptation can be

institutionalized or embedded into existing or new policie s

and plans

Effectiveness

Economic efficiency Cost, effectiveness, benefits

Co-benefits Exploitation of synergies

Propagating effect Communication and outreach

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22. Evaluation criteria. Evaluation criteria

Evaluation criteriaAnalysis methodology

Climate기change기risk

Climate change risksQuantitative analysis:

Vulnerability analysis

Climate change impact assessment

Climate change impacts

Timing

Intensity of climate change

Equity

Policy

Equity

Qualitative analysis:

Multi criteria analysis, AHP, BAP

Democracy

main-streaming

Effectiveness

Economic efficiency Quantitative analysis: cost benefit analysis

Co-benefits Quantitative analysis

Propagating effect Qualitative analysis

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66666666. . . . . . . . Prioritization of climate change Prioritization of climate change Prioritization of climate change Prioritization of climate change Prioritization of climate change Prioritization of climate change Prioritization of climate change Prioritization of climate change adaptation measuresadaptation measuresadaptation measuresadaptation measuresadaptation measuresadaptation measuresadaptation measuresadaptation measures

Assessment of adaptation measuresAssessment of adaptation measuresAssessment of adaptation measuresAssessment of adaptation measuresAssessment of adaptation measuresAssessment of adaptation measuresAssessment of adaptation measuresAssessment of adaptation measures

PolicyClimate changerisks

Effectiveness

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Quantitative assessment

Qualitative assessment

Policyrisks

• Timing• Risks (probability)• Intensity

• Economic efficiency• Co-benefits (win-win measures)• Propagation effects

• Equity• Democracy• main streaming

77777777. Assessment steps. Assessment steps. Assessment steps. Assessment steps. Assessment steps. Assessment steps. Assessment steps. Assessment steps

11stst StepStep(Screening)

22ndnd StepStep

· No regret :measures with no cost· Existing measures· Non-reversible impacts

Climate change impacts and vulnerability assessment

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22ndnd StepStep

33rdrd StepStep

assessment

Multi-criteria analysis

Effectiveness Policy

88888888. Climate change impacts and . Climate change impacts and . Climate change impacts and . Climate change impacts and . Climate change impacts and . Climate change impacts and . Climate change impacts and . Climate change impacts and vulnerability assessmentvulnerability assessmentvulnerability assessmentvulnerability assessmentvulnerability assessmentvulnerability assessmentvulnerability assessmentvulnerability assessment

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Inten

PriorityPriorityNear futureNear future

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ensity

Risk

(probability)

2011

Timing

PriorityNear futureNear future

� Expert survey on evaluation criteria, relative weight, assessment scale

� Pre-test on adaptation plan

� To build a prioritizing framework for sectoral adaptation options

. . Further stepsFurther steps

adaptation options

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THANK YOU!THANK YOU!

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