How the Survey was Conducted Nature of the Sample: NBC...
Transcript of How the Survey was Conducted Nature of the Sample: NBC...
How the Survey was Conducted
Nature of the Sample: NBC News/WSJ/Marist South Carolina Poll of 2,508 Adults This survey of 2,508 adults was conducted January 17th through January 23rd, 2016 by The Marist Poll sponsored and funded in partnership with NBC News and The Wall Street Journal. Adults 18 years of age and older residing in the state of South Carolina were interviewed in English by telephone using live interviewers. Landline telephone numbers were randomly selected based upon a list of telephone exchanges from throughout the state of South Carolina from ASDE Survey Sampler, Inc. The exchanges were selected to ensure that each region was represented in proportion to its population. Respondents in the household were randomly selected by first asking for the youngest male. To increase coverage, this landline sample was supplemented by respondents reached through random dialing of cell phone numbers from Survey Sampling International. Both samples were matched by telephone number to a voter registration list for the state. Voter information was appended to each matched case. Assistance was provided by Luce Research for data collection and L2 for voter registration information. After the interviews were completed, the two samples were combined and balanced to reflect the 2013 American Community Survey 5-year estimates for age, gender, income, and region except for race, which is from the 2010 census. Results are statistically significant within ±2.0 percentage points. There are 2,340 registered voters. The results for this subset are statistically significant within ±2.0 percentage points. Among registered voters, 909 had a phone match in the voter file and 1,431 did not. The results for these subsets are statistically significant within ±3.3 percentage points and ±2.6 percentage points, respectively. There are 1,197 voters in the potential Republican primary electorate. The potential Republican primary electorate in South Carolina includes all voters who prefer to vote in the Republican presidential primary and those who identify as Republicans or Republican leaning independents without a primary preference. There are 887 voters in the potential Democratic primary electorate. The potential Democratic primary electorate in South Carolina includes all voters who prefer to vote in the Democratic presidential primary and those who identify as Democrats or Democratic leaning independents without a primary preference. The results for these subsets are statistically significant within ±2.8 percentage points and ±3.3 percentage points, respectively. There are 718 likely Republican primary voters and 446 likely Democratic primary voters defined by a probability turnout model which determines the likelihood respondents will participate in the 2016 South Carolina Republican/Democratic Presidential Primary based upon their chance of vote, interest in the election, and past election participation. The results for these subsets are statistically significant within ±3.7 percentage points and ±4.6 percentage points, respectively. The error margin was not adjusted for sample weights and increases for cross-tabulations.
NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll South Carolina Tables of Adults and Registered Voters
NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll South Carolina January 2016 1
South Carolina Adults South Carolina Registered Voters
Col % Col %
100%
93% 100%
48% 51%
29% 31%
35% 38%
18% 19%
Democrat n/a 30%
Republican n/a 38%
Independent n/a 31%
Other n/a 1%
Very liberal n/a 4%
Liberal n/a 14%
Moderate n/a 31%
Conservative n/a 35%
Very conservative n/a 16%
n/a 26%
Men 48% 48%
Women 52% 52%
Under 45 40% 39%
45 or older 60% 61%
18 to 29 17% 16%
30 to 44 23% 23%
45 to 59 26% 26%
60 or older 33% 34%
White 67% 67%
African American 27% 27%
Latino 4% 4%
Other 2% 2%
Upcountry 25% 24%
Piedmont 13% 13%
Central 26% 26%
Pee Dee/Waccamaw 16% 16%
Low Country 20% 20%
Less than $50,000 55% 53%
$50,000 or more 45% 47%
Not college graduate 66% 64%
College graduate 34% 36%
Married 49% 51%
Not married 51% 49%
Yes 42% 43%
No 58% 57%
29% 30%
Practice a Religion 66% 68%
Does not Practice a Religion 34% 32%
Match n/a 39%
No Match n/a 61%
Landline 51% 52%
Cell Phone 49% 48%
Nature of the Sample - South Carolina
Party Identification
Political Ideology
Tea Party Supporters
South Carolina Adults
South Carolina Registered Voters
South Carolina Potential Republican Electorate
Gender
Age
Age
Race
Region
Religiosity
South Carolina Voter Registration List
Interview Type
Household Income
Education
Marital Status
Evangelical Christian
White Evangelical Christians
South Carolina Likely Republican Primary Voters
South Carolina Potential Democratic Electorate
South Carolina Likely Democratic Primary Voters
NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll South Carolina Adults. Interviews conducted January 17th through January 23rd, 2016, n=2508 MOE +/- 2.0 percentage points. Totals may not add to 100% due to rounding.^South Carolina Registered Voters: n=2340 MOE +/- 2.0 percentage points.
NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll South Carolina Tables of Adults and Registered Voters
NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll South Carolina January 2016 2
South Carolina Potential Republican Electorate
South Carolina Likely Republican Primary Voters
Col % Col %
100%
60% 100%
Democrat 1% 1%
Republican 71% 74%
Independent 26% 23%
Other 1% 2%
Yes 79% 87%
No 21% 13%
Very liberal 1% 1%
Liberal 4% 4%
Moderate 25% 22%
Conservative 48% 50%
Very conservative 23% 24%
40% 43%
Men 53% 52%
Women 47% 48%
Under 45 33% 29%
45 or older 67% 71%
18 to 29 12% 9%
30 to 44 20% 20%
45 to 59 27% 28%
60 or older 40% 43%
White 92% 93%
African American 3% 3%
Latino 3% 2%
Other 2% 1%
Upcountry 28% 30%
Piedmont 14% 13%
Central 23% 23%
Pee Dee/Waccamaw 14% 14%
Low Country 21% 20%
Less than $50,000 42% 40%
$50,000 or more 58% 60%
Not college graduate 59% 57%
College graduate 41% 43%
Married 64% 66%
Not married 36% 34%
Yes 54% 57%
No 46% 43%
48% 51%
Practice a Religion 72% 74%
Does not Practice a Religion 28% 26%
Match 44% 47%
No Match 56% 53%
Landline 55% 58%
Cell Phone 45% 42%
Past Participation*
Political Ideology
Tea Party Supporters
South Carolina Potential Republican Electorate
Party Identification
Gender
Age
Age
Race
Region
Household Income
Education
Marital Status
Evangelical Christian
White Evangelical Christians
South Carolina Likely Republican Primary Voters
Nature of the Sample - South Carolina
NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll South Carolina Potential Republican Electorate. Interviews conducted January 17th through January 23rd, 2016, n=1197 MOE +/- 2.8 percentage points. Totals may not add to 100% due to rounding.^South Carolina Likely Republican Primary Voters: n=718 MOE +/- 3.7 percentage points.
Religiosity
South Carolina Voter Registration List
Interview Type
NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll South Carolina Tables of Adults and Registered Voters
NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll South Carolina January 2016 3
South Carolina Potential Democratic Electorate
South Carolina Likely Democratic Primary Voters
Col % Col %
100%
50% 100%
Democrat 75% 79%
Republican 1% 1%
Independent 25% 21%
Yes 74% 83%
No 26% 17%
Very liberal 9% 10%
Liberal 28% 27%
Moderate 36% 35%
Conservative 20% 19%
Very conservative 8% 9%
12% 11%
Men 42% 41%
Women 58% 59%
Under 45 45% 39%
45 or older 55% 61%
18 to 29 21% 16%
30 to 44 24% 23%
45 to 59 26% 28%
60 or older 29% 32%
White 35% 35%
African American 59% 60%
Latino 4% 3%
Other 2% 2%
Upcountry 18% 20%
Piedmont 11% 12%
Central 32% 31%
Pee Dee/Waccamaw 19% 17%
Low Country 20% 20%
Less than $50,000 64% 62%
$50,000 or more 36% 38%
Not college graduate 67% 65%
College graduate 33% 35%
Married 37% 40%
Not married 63% 60%
Yes 32% 31%
No 68% 69%
8% 6%
Practice a Religion 65% 66%
Does not Practice a Religion 35% 34%
Match 34% 36%
No Match 66% 64%
Landline 49% 51%
Cell Phone 51% 49%
NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll South Carolina Potential Democratic Electorate. Interviews conducted January 17th through January 23rd, 2016, n=887 MOE +/- 3.3 percentage points. Totals may not add to 100% due to rounding.^South Carolina Likely Democratic Primary Voters: n=446 MOE +/- 4.6 percentage points.
South Carolina Likely Democratic Primary Voters
Nature of the Sample - South Carolina
Marital Status
Evangelical Christian
White Evangelical Christians
Religiosity
South Carolina Voter Registration List
Age
Race
Region
Household Income
Education
Tea Party Supporters
Interview Type
Gender
Age
South Carolina Potential Democratic Electorate
Party Identification
Past Participation*
Political Ideology
NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll South Carolina Tables of Adults and Registered Voters
NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll South Carolina January 2016 4
Approve Disapprove Unsure
Adults South Carolina Adults
Registered Voters South Carolina Registered Voters
Potential Republican Electorate South Carolina Potential Republican Electorate
Potential Democratic Electorate South Carolina Potential Democratic Electorate
Party Identification
Democrat
Republican
Independent
Political Ideology
Very liberal-Liberal
Moderate
Conservative-Very conservative
Tea Party Support Tea Party Supporters
Region
Upcountry
Piedmont
Central
Pee Dee/Waccamaw
Low Country
Household IncomeLess than $50,000
$50,000 or more
EducationNot college graduate
College graduate
Race
White
African American
Latino
Age
18 to 29
30 to 44
45 to 59
60 or older
AgeUnder 45
45 or older
GenderMen
Women
Marital StatusMarried
Not married
ReligiosityPractice a Religion
Does not Practice a Religion
Interview TypeLandline
Cell Phone 7%
5%
7%
6%
8%
4%
6%
6%
5%
8%
5%
5%
7%
9%
14%
3%
7%
5%
7%
5%
7%
6%
6%
7%
7%
5%
2%
3%
8%
6%
10%
3%
3%
4%
4%
5%
6%
47%
56%
50%
53%
39%
65%
49%
55%
57%
44%
61%
52%
50%
36%
33%
5%
72%
56%
50%
61%
42%
49%
48%
46%
53%
62%
78%
73%
41%
16%
49%
92%
4%
7%
87%
52%
52%
45%
39%
43%
41%
53%
31%
45%
39%
38%
48%
34%
43%
43%
55%
52%
92%
22%
39%
43%
35%
51%
45%
46%
48%
40%
33%
20%
24%
51%
78%
41%
6%
93%
89%
9%
43%
42%
Do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as president?
NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll South Carolina Adults. Interviews conducted January 17th through January 23rd, 2016, n=2508 MOE +/- 2.0 percentage points. Totals may not add to 100% due to rounding. SouthCarolina Registered Voters: n=2340 MOE +/- 2.0 percentage points. Potential Republican Electorate: n= 1197 MOE +/- 2.8 percentage points. Potential Democratic Electorate: n= 887 MOE +/- 3.3 percentagepoints.
NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll South Carolina Tables of Adults and Registered Voters
NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll South Carolina January 2016 5
Donald Trump Ted Cruz Marco Rubio Ben Carson Jeb Bush Rand Paul MikeHuckabee
Chris Christie John Kasich Carly Fiorina Other Undecided
Potential RepublicanElectorate
South Carolina PotentialRepublican Electorate
Intensity of Support
Strongly support
Somewhat support
Might vote differently
Party IdentificationRepublican
Independent
Political IdeologyModerate
Conservative-Veryconservative
Region
Upcountry
Piedmont
Central
Pee Dee/Waccamaw
Low Country
Household IncomeLess than $50,000
$50,000 or more
EducationNot college graduate
College graduate
Age
18 to 29
30 to 44
45 to 59
60 or older
AgeUnder 45
45 or older
GenderMen
Women
Marital StatusMarried
Not married
White Evangelical ChristiansWhite EvangelicalChristians
ReligiosityPractice a Religion
Does not Practice a Religion
South Carolina VoterRegistration List
Match
No Match
Interview TypeLandline
Cell Phone
7%0%1%1%2%2%2%9%9%13%18%35%
4%
1%
0%
4%
1%
1%
3%
2%
1%
3%
1%
2%
5%
2%
2%
12%
13%
7%
12%
7%
10%
21%
20%
9%
19%
20%
21%
17%
33%
46%
8%
6%
1%
0%
1%
1%
2%
1%
3%
1%
1%
2%
4%
1%
10%
9%
7%
9%
18%
11%
17%
20%
28%
38%
6%
8%
0%
0%
1%
1%
1%
2%
1%
3%
2%
2%
2%
2%
6%
13%
10%
8%
12%
16%
23%
10%
35%
34%
8%
6%
7%
6%
8%
0%
1%
0%
1%
1%
1%
1%
3%
1%
2%
1%
2%
0%
1%
2%
1%
1%
1%
3%
0%
1%
2%
2%
3%
4%
2%
1%
1%
2%
12%
6%
11%
7%
8%
5%
10%
9%
10%
9%
12%
11%
14%
10%
15%
19%
15%
19%
22%
17%
34%
45%
32%
37%
32%
5%
7%
1%
0%
1%
0%
1%
2%
1%
2%
1%
3%
3%
2%
8%
13%
9%
8%
15%
9%
21%
13%
33%
39%
7%
7%
0%
1%
1%
1%
1%
2%
3%
1%
2%
2%
3%
1%
9%
10%
10%
7%
16%
11%
19%
18%
29%
39%
8%
6%
6%
5%
0%
1%
1%
1%
1%
3%
2%
2%
2%
2%
1%
3%
0%
2%
2%
2%
1%
2%
1%
7%
14%
6%
8%
4%
5%
6%
15%
18%
14%
14%
10%
13%
17%
19%
22%
15%
34%
40%
32%
32%
7%
6%
0%
1%
1%
1%
2%
1%
2%
2%
2%
1%
1%
4%
11%
6%
5%
16%
14%
11%
18%
19%
36%
32%
8%
6%
0%
1%
2%
1%
1%
2%
2%
1%
3%
1%
1%
3%
11%
7%
10%
8%
14%
13%
18%
19%
31%
38%
10%
6%
0%
0%
2%
1%
2%
1%
1%
2%
2%
2%
3%
2%
11%
9%
9%
9%
12%
14%
14%
21%
35%
34%
8%0%0%0%1%3%1%8%11%12%24%32%
8%
6%
0%
0%
2%
1%
1%
2%
2%
2%
1%
2%
2%
2%
6%
10%
6%
10%
14%
13%
13%
21%
43%
31%
6%
8%
1%0%
2%
1%
2%
2%
1%
2%
2%
3%
1%
9%
9%
9%
8%
10%
17%
20%
17%
36%
33%
5%
8%
1%
0%
0%
2%
1%
2%
1%
2%
1%
2%
3%
1%
9%
9%
10%
7%
11%
15%
20%
17%
36%
34%
2016 South Carolina Republican presidential primary including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate
NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll South Carolina Potential Republican Electorate. Interviews conducted January 17th through January 23rd, 2016, n=1197 MOE +/- 2.8 percentage points. Totals may not add to 100% due to rounding.
NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll South Carolina Tables of Adults and Registered Voters
NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll South Carolina January 2016 6
Strongly support Somewhat support Might vote differently Unsure
Potential RepublicanElectorate
South Carolina Potential RepublicanElectorate with a Candidate Preference
Primary Support
Donald Trump
Ted Cruz
Marco Rubio
Ben Carson
Jeb Bush
Party Identification
Republican
Independent
Tea Party Support Tea Party Supporters
Region
Upcountry
Piedmont
Central
Pee Dee/Waccamaw
Low Country
Household Income
Less than $50,000
$50,000 or more
Education
Not college graduate
College graduate
Age
18 to 29
30 to 44
45 to 59
60 or older
Age
Under 45
45 or older
Gender
Men
Women
Marital Status
Married
Not married
White Evangelical ChristiansWhite Evangelical Christians
Religiosity
Practice a Religion
Does not Practice a Religion
South Carolina VoterRegistration List
Match
No Match
Interview Type
Cell Phone
Landline
2%14%30%54%
6%
0%
2%
1%
2%
17%
19%
21%
13%
6%
37%
24%
42%
30%
26%
40%
57%
35%
55%
66%
2%
2%
16%
13%
38%
28%
44%
58%
2%12%27%59%
3%
4%
2%
0%
2%
12%
12%
14%
14%
18%
28%
21%
34%
34%
30%
57%
64%
50%
52%
50%
2%
3%
13%
15%
31%
29%
54%
54%
2%
2%
13%
15%
30%
30%
54%
54%
3%
2%
2%
1%
15%
14%
10%
17%
26%
26%
37%
37%
55%
58%
51%
45%
2%
2%
15%
12%
26%
37%
57%
49%
2%
2%
16%
12%
30%
30%
51%
56%
2%
2%
17%
12%
28%
31%
53%
54%
2%14%31%54%
3%
2%
16%
13%
25%
32%
56%
53%
3%
1%
15%
13%
31%
28%
51%
58%
1%
3%
14%
14%
28%
32%
57%
51%
Would you say you strongly support <candidate> somewhat support <candidate>, or do you think you might vote differently on Pri-mary Day?
NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll South Carolina Potential Republican Electorate with a Candidate Preference. Interviews conducted January 17th through January 23rd, 2016, n=1053 MOE +/- 3.0 percentagepoints.Totals may not add to 100% due to rounding.
NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll South Carolina Tables of Adults and Registered Voters
NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll South Carolina January 2016 7
Ted CruzMarco Rubio DonaldTrump
Ben Carson Jeb Bush ChrisChristie
MikeHuckabee
Carly Fiorina John Kasich Rand Paul Other Undecided
Potential RepublicanElectorate
South Carolina Potential RepublicanElectorate with a CandidatePreference
Primary Support
Donald Trump
Ted Cruz
Marco Rubio
Ben Carson
Jeb Bush
Party Identification
Republican
Independent
Political Ideology
Moderate
Conservative-Very conservative
Tea Party Support Tea Party Supporters
Region
Upcountry
Piedmont
Central
Pee Dee/Waccamaw
Low Country
Household Income
Less than $50,000
$50,000 or more
Education
Not college graduate
College graduate
Age
18 to 29
30 to 44
45 to 59
60 or older
Age
Under 45
45 or older
Gender
Men
Women
Marital Status
Married
Not married
White Evangelical ChristiansWhite Evangelical Christians
Religiosity
Practice a Religion
Does not Practice a Religion
South Carolina VoterRegistration List
Match
No Match
Interview Type
Cell Phone
Landline
6%1%2%3%3%5%5%9%13%15%17%21%
7%
6%
5%
2%
9%
2%
1%
1%
4%
3%
3%
11%
7%
0%
2%
7%
2%
6%
2%
1%
5%
3%
3%
5%
5%
11%
7%
2%
6%
9%
10%
5%
11%
9%
15%
16%
16%
11%
31%
18%
33%
22%
28%
31%
13%
16%
20%
26%
35%
7%
6%
0%
1%
5%
1%
5%
2%
3%
3%
3%
5%
7%
4%
7%
10%
14%
13%
13%
15%
18%
17%
18%
22%
6%
7%
0%
1%
2%
3%
2%
4%
3%
1%
4%
4%
4%
8%
8%
12%
13%
13%
16%
13%
19%
13%
22%
21%
3%0%3%1%3%4%3%7%15%18%17%25%
6%
9%
7%
9%
3%
0%
0%
1%
1%
4%
1%
1%
2%
2%
2%
3%
4%
2%
3%
6%
2%
2%
1%
2%
3%
6%
6%
4%
4%
4%
7%
7%
2%
5%
9%
8%
9%
8%
11%
9%
13%
11%
20%
15%
16%
19%
11%
13%
16%
17%
13%
19%
19%
18%
23%
18%
22%
20%
21%
4%
6%
0%
1%
2%
2%
3%
3%
3%
3%
4%
6%
6%
3%
8%
10%
17%
11%
15%
14%
18%
17%
19%
24%
5%
7%
1%
0%
2%
2%
4%
2%
4%
2%
3%
6%
7%
4%
8%
10%
14%
13%
15%
14%
19%
16%
18%
23%
6%
7%
7%
5%
1%
1%
1%
3%
2%
4%
3%
2%
4%
2%
3%
3%
3%
2%
5%
6%
3%
3%
7%
7%
2%
10%
9%
8%
9%
9%
15%
16%
20%
13%
12%
21%
17%
21%
13%
17%
18%
22%
22%
19%
18%
6%
6%
1%2%
3%
3%
3%
3%
3%
5%
3%
7%
1%
9%
8%
11%
17%
12%
19%
17%
17%
22%
19%
8%
4%
1%
0%
1%
3%
2%
4%
4%
2%
7%
3%
6%
4%
9%
9%
14%
13%
11%
18%
19%
16%
18%
23%
6%
6%
1%
0%
3%
2%
4%
2%
3%
3%
4%
5%
5%
5%
10%
8%
12%
14%
14%
16%
17%
18%
20%
22%
5%0%2%2%2%6%4%10%12%16%21%20%
9%
5%
0%
1%
2%
2%
4%
3%
3%
3%
3%
5%
5%
5%
8%
9%
11%
14%
16%
14%
13%
20%
26%
19%
5%
8%
1%
0%
3%
1%
3%
3%
2%
4%
4%
5%
5%
5%
9%
10%
15%
12%
17%
12%
16%
19%
21%
21%
8%
4%
0%
1%
1%
3%
3%
3%
3%
3%
5%
4%
5%
5%
10%
8%
10%
17%
14%
16%
19%
16%
22%
20%
Who is your second choice for the 2016 Republican presidential primary [including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate]?
NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll South Carolina Potential Republican Electorate with a Candidate Preference. Interviews conducted January 17th through January 23rd, 2016, n=1053 MOE +/- 3.0 percentage points.Totals may not add to 100% due to rounding.
NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll South Carolina Tables of Adults and Registered Voters
NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll South Carolina January 2016 8
Hillary Clinton Bernie Sanders Martin O'Malley Other Undecided
Potential DemocraticElectorate
South Carolina Potential DemocraticElectorate
Intensity of Support
Strongly support
Somewhat support
Might vote differently
Party Identification
Democrat
Independent
Political Ideology
Moderate
Very liberal-Liberal
Obama Approval Rating
Approve
Disapprove
Region
Upcountry
Piedmont
Central
Pee Dee/Waccamaw
Low Country
Household Income
Less than $50,000
$50,000 or more
Education
Not college graduate
College graduate
Age
18 to 29
30 to 44
45 to 59
60 or older
Race
White
African American
Age
Under 45
45 or older
Gender
Men
Women
Marital Status
Married
Not married
Religiosity
Practice a Religion
Does not Practice a Religion
South Carolina VoterRegistration List
Match
No Match
Interview Type
Landline
Cell Phone
7%0%2%29%61%
8%
2%
1%
34%
39%
27%
58%
59%
73%
3%
8%0%
4%
1%
46%
24%
47%
66%
4%
8%
0%1%
2%
37%
34%
58%
56%
9%
7%
11%
1%
41%
28%
39%
64%
6%
6%
7%
13%
4%
1%
2%
4%
2%
2%
1%
34%
33%
27%
23%
30%
58%
57%
64%
62%
64%
3%
9%
2%
2%
36%
27%
59%
63%
5%
8%0%
2%
2%
39%
24%
54%
66%
11%
4%
6%
7%
1%
2%
3%
1%
2%
14%
24%
38%
49%
73%
69%
56%
42%
9%
4%0%
1%
3%
20%
42%
70%
50%
7%
6%
0%3%
1%
19%
43%
71%
49%
9%
4%
0%1%
3%
25%
36%
65%
57%
8%
6%
0%2%
3%
29%
28%
62%
62%
4%
9%
0%2%
2%
39%
24%
56%
65%
6%
9%
0%1%
3%
33%
23%
60%
65%
6%
8%
0%1%
3%
36%
23%
57%
66%
2016 South Carolina Democratic presidential primary including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate
NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll South Carolina Potential Democratic Electorate. Interviews conducted January 17th through January 23rd, 2016, n=887 MOE +/- 3.3 percentage points. Totalsmay not add to 100% due to rounding.
NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll South Carolina Tables of Adults and Registered Voters
NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll South Carolina January 2016 9
Strongly support Somewhat support Might vote differently Unsure
Potential DemocraticElectorate
South Carolina Potential DemocraticElectorate with a Candidate Preference
Party Identification
Democrat
Independent
Political Ideology
Moderate
Very liberal-Liberal
Primary Support
Hillary Clinton
Bernie Sanders
Region
Upcountry
Piedmont
Central
Pee Dee/Waccamaw
Low Country
Household Income
Less than $50,000
$50,000 or more
Education
Not college graduate
College graduate
Race
White
African American
Age
18 to 29
30 to 44
45 to 59
60 or older
Age
Under 45
45 or older
Gender
Men
Women
Marital Status
Married
Not married
Religiosity
Practice a Religion
Does not Practice a Religion
South Carolina VoterRegistration List
Match
No Match
Interview Type
Landline
Cell Phone
1%13%27%59%
1%
1%
17%
12%
31%
25%
50%
63%
1%
1%
4%
18%
30%
29%
65%
52%
1%
1%
14%
11%
34%
24%
51%
64%
2%
1%
2%
1%
17%
15%
8%
13%
16%
30%
29%
24%
19%
30%
54%
55%
67%
66%
53%
1%
1%
11%
15%
29%
23%
59%
61%
1%
1%
11%
15%
30%
25%
58%
59%
1%
1%
13%
13%
25%
32%
61%
54%
3%
1%
1%
10%
17%
15%
11%
16%
25%
30%
41%
72%
58%
55%
49%
2%
0%
13%
13%
20%
35%
65%
52%
1%
1%
14%
12%
25%
29%
60%
58%
1%
1%
15%
10%
26%
28%
58%
61%
1%
1%
10%
16%
26%
27%
64%
56%
1%
1%
13%
13%
30%
21%
56%
65%
0%
2%
13%
13%
31%
22%
55%
63%
Would you say you strongly support <candidate> somewhat support <candidate>, or do you think you might vote differently onPrimary Day?
NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll South Carolina Potential Democratic Electorate with a Candidate Preference. Interviews conducted January 17th through January 23rd, 2016, n=760 MOE +/- 3.6 percent-age points.Totals may not add to 100% due to rounding.
NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll South Carolina Tables of Adults and Registered Voters
NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll South Carolina January 2016 10
Job creation andeconomic growth
National securityand terrorism
Health careThe deficit andgovernmentspending
Religious andmoral values
Immigration Climate change All equally None of these Other Unsure
Adults South Carolina Adults
Registered VotersSouth Carolina RegisteredVoters
Potential Republican ElectorateSouth Carolina PotentialRepublican Electorate
Potential Democratic ElectorateSouth Carolina PotentialDemocratic Electorate
Party Identification
Democrat
Republican
Independent
Political Ideology
Very liberal-Liberal
Moderate
Conservative-Veryconservative
Tea Party Support Tea Party Supporters
Region
Upcountry
Piedmont
Central
Pee Dee/Waccamaw
Low Country
Household Income
Less than $50,000
$50,000 or more
Education
Not college graduate
College graduate
Race
White
African American
Latino
Age
18 to 29
30 to 44
45 to 59
60 or older
Age
Under 45
45 or older
Gender
Men
Women
Marital Status
Married
Not married
Religiosity
Practice a Religion
Does not Practice aReligion
Interview Type
Landline
Cell Phone 0%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
0%
1%
0%
1%
1%
1%
0%
1%
0%
1%
0%
1%
2%
0%
1%
1%
0%
1%
1%
1%
0%
1%
1%
0%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
2%
1%
1%
1%
3%
4%
1%
1%
2%
1%
2%
1%
2%
2%
1%
0%
1%
1%
1%
1%
2%
1%
1%
2%
2%
1%
1%
1%
0%
0%
1%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
1%
0%
1%
1%
0%
0%
0%
0%
1%
1%
1%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
4%
6%
5%
5%
6%
5%
5%
5%
7%
3%
8%
5%
3%
3%
6%
5%
5%
4%
6%
3%
6%
6%
5%
6%
5%
5%
3%
5%
5%
5%
4%
4%
6%
5%
5%
5%
5%
2%
3%
3%
1%
2%
2%
2%
2%
2%
3%
2%
2%
3%
3%
2%
2%
3%
2%
3%
2%
2%
2%
2%
1%
3%
1%
1%
2%
6%
4%
0%
3%
5%
0%
2%
2%
6%
5%
6%
5%
6%
5%
4%
7%
5%
6%
5%
5%
4%
8%
15%
2%
6%
5%
6%
6%
5%
5%
6%
4%
7%
6%
7%
6%
5%
5%
5%
8%
2%
2%
8%
5%
5%
11%
10%
5%
14%
9%
12%
13%
8%
10%
11%
9%
11%
12%
10%
7%
7%
12%
10%
10%
12%
10%
4%
8%
11%
12%
15%
15%
15%
7%
3%
8%
17%
5%
5%
15%
10%
10%
11%
11%
11%
10%
9%
13%
9%
13%
11%
11%
10%
11%
14%
8%
13%
5%
13%
13%
10%
15%
8%
12%
10%
9%
12%
11%
12%
13%
11%
6%
12%
15%
6%
6%
15%
11%
11%
13%
13%
13%
13%
16%
10%
15%
10%
15%
10%
15%
15%
9%
11%
13%
18%
11%
9%
15%
8%
17%
11%
16%
14%
16%
10%
10%
11%
10%
22%
13%
7%
19%
19%
8%
13%
13%
21%
27%
23%
24%
19%
29%
23%
25%
27%
19%
29%
24%
19%
19%
16%
16%
27%
25%
24%
28%
19%
30%
17%
24%
23%
24%
31%
29%
25%
11%
25%
32%
15%
14%
32%
24%
24%
30%
23%
30%
25%
31%
22%
26%
27%
21%
35%
18%
26%
34%
36%
26%
41%
21%
28%
26%
24%
30%
28%
31%
26%
24%
26%
20%
19%
34%
38%
27%
15%
42%
42%
16%
27%
27%
Which one of the following issues is most important to you for the 2016 presidential election?
NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll South Carolina Adults. Interviews conducted January 17th through January 23rd, 2016, n=2508 MOE +/- 2.0 percentage points. Totals may not add to 100% due to rounding. South Carolina Registered Voters: n=2340 MOE +/- 2.0 percentage points. Potential Republican Electorate: n= 1197 MOE +/- 2.8 percentage points. PotentialDemocratic Electorate: n= 887 MOE +/- 3.3 percentage points.
NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll South Carolina Tables of Adults and Registered Voters
NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll South Carolina January 2016 11
Support Oppose Unsure
Adults South Carolina Adults
Registered Voters South Carolina Registered Voters
Potential Republican Electorate South Carolina Potential RepublicanElectorate
Potential Democratic Electorate South Carolina Potential DemocraticElectorate
Party Identification
Democrat
Republican
Independent
Political Ideology
Very liberal-Liberal
Moderate
Conservative-Very conservative
Tea Party Support Tea Party Supporters
Region
Upcountry
Piedmont
Central
Pee Dee/Waccamaw
Low Country
Household IncomeLess than $50,000
$50,000 or more
EducationNot college graduate
College graduate
RaceWhite
African American
Age
18 to 29
30 to 44
45 to 59
60 or older
AgeUnder 45
45 or older
GenderMen
Women
Marital StatusMarried
Not married
ReligiosityPractice a Religion
Does not Practice a Religion
Interview TypeLandline
Cell Phone 3%
6%
3%
5%
5%
4%
4%
4%
4%
5%
5%
2%
6%
3%
5%
4%
4%
4%
3%
5%
4%
4%
5%
5%
4%
2%
3%
3%
2%
2%
5%
3%
2%
4%
4%
4%
47%
44%
47%
45%
40%
51%
39%
53%
47%
44%
46%
48%
46%
42%
17%
55%
41%
48%
51%
41%
41%
46%
43%
50%
50%
69%
59%
39%
21%
51%
66%
15%
18%
66%
46%
46%
50%
51%
49%
50%
55%
45%
57%
43%
49%
51%
49%
49%
48%
55%
78%
41%
55%
48%
47%
54%
55%
50%
53%
45%
46%
30%
38%
58%
77%
47%
29%
83%
80%
30%
50%
50%
Do you support or oppose making laws covering the sale of firearms more strict?
NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll South Carolina Adults Split Sample. Interviews conducted January 17th through January 23rd, 2016, n=1244 MOE +/- 2.8 percentage points. South Caroli-na Registered Voters Split Sample: n=1154 MOE +/- 2.9 percentage points. Potential Republican Electorate Split Sample: n= 610 MOE +/- 4.0 percentage points. Potential DemocraticElectorate Split Sample: n= 417 MOE +/- 4.8 percentage points. Totals may not add to 100% due to rounding.
NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll South Carolina Tables of Adults and Registered Voters
NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll South Carolina January 2016 12
Support Oppose Unsure
Adults South Carolina Adults
Registered Voters South Carolina Registered Voters
Potential Republican Electorate South Carolina Potential RepublicanElectorate
Potential Democratic Electorate South Carolina Potential DemocraticElectorate
Party Identification
Democrat
Republican
Independent
Political Ideology
Very liberal-Liberal
Moderate
Conservative-Very conservative
Tea Party Support Tea Party Supporters
Region
Upcountry
Piedmont
Central
Pee Dee/Waccamaw
Low Country
Household Income
Less than $50,000
$50,000 or more
Education
Not college graduate
College graduate
Race
White
African American
Age
18 to 29
30 to 44
45 to 59
60 or older
Age
Under 45
45 or older
Gender
Men
Women
Marital Status
Married
Not married
Religiosity
Practice a Religion
Does not Practice a Religion
Interview Type
Landline
Cell Phone 11%
14%
14%
12%
13%
12%
16%
9%
12%
14%
14%
9%
17%
9%
13%
12%
13%
12%
7%
14%
12%
15%
12%
8%
15%
8%
12%
10%
10%
9%
12%
14%
12%
10%
12%
13%
28%
28%
26%
30%
33%
24%
26%
30%
30%
25%
28%
34%
25%
24%
31%
28%
16%
35%
24%
32%
21%
35%
28%
35%
26%
32%
31%
27%
23%
32%
29%
23%
26%
29%
28%
28%
60%
58%
60%
59%
55%
64%
57%
61%
58%
61%
58%
58%
57%
67%
56%
59%
71%
53%
70%
54%
67%
50%
60%
56%
59%
60%
57%
63%
67%
60%
58%
63%
61%
61%
59%
59%
Do you support or oppose free trade with foreign countries?
NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll South Carolina Adults Split Sample. Interviews conducted January 17th through January 23rd, 2016, n=1244 MOE +/- 2.8 percentage points. South Car-olina Registered Voters Split Sample: n=1154 MOE +/- 2.9 percentage points. Potential Republican Electorate Split Sample: n= 610 MOE +/- 4.0 percentage points. Potential Demo-cratic Electorate Split Sample: n= 417 MOE +/- 4.8 percentage points. Totals may not add to 100% due to rounding.
NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll South Carolina Tables of Adults and Registered Voters
NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll South Carolina January 2016 13
Support Oppose Unsure
Adults South Carolina Adults
Registered Voters South Carolina Registered Voters
Potential Republican ElectorateSouth Carolina Potential RepublicanElectorate
Potential Democratic ElectorateSouth Carolina Potential DemocraticElectorate
Party Identification
Democrat
Republican
Independent
Political Ideology
Very liberal-Liberal
Moderate
Conservative-Very conservative
Tea Party Support Tea Party Supporters
Region
Upcountry
Piedmont
Central
Pee Dee/Waccamaw
Low Country
Household Income
Less than $50,000
$50,000 or more
Education
Not college graduate
College graduate
Race
White
African American
Age
18 to 29
30 to 44
45 to 59
60 or older
Age
Under 45
45 or older
Gender
Men
Women
Marital Status
Married
Not married
Religiosity
Practice a Religion
Does not Practice a Religion
Interview Type
Landline
Cell Phone 8%
10%
8%
10%
11%
7%
10%
9%
9%
9%
10%
8%
11%
7%
13%
8%
10%
9%
6%
10%
8%
5%
10%
11%
11%
7%
8%
8%
4%
10%
6%
10%
10%
7%
9%
9%
43%
48%
43%
47%
45%
46%
44%
47%
53%
34%
54%
52%
33%
36%
38%
49%
33%
53%
44%
46%
42%
49%
44%
49%
47%
55%
56%
40%
26%
37%
62%
34%
32%
57%
45%
46%
48%
42%
49%
43%
44%
47%
46%
44%
38%
56%
37%
40%
56%
57%
49%
43%
57%
38%
50%
44%
50%
46%
47%
40%
42%
37%
35%
52%
71%
53%
33%
56%
59%
36%
46%
45%
Do you support or oppose immigration policies which include a pathway to citizenship for undocumented or illegal immigrants?
NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll South Carolina Adults Split Sample. Interviews conducted January 17th through January 23rd, 2016, n=1244 MOE +/- 2.8 percentage points. South Carolina Registered Voters Split Sample: n=1154 MOE +/-2.9 percentage points. Potential Republican Electorate Split Sample: n= 610 MOE +/- 4.0 percentage points. Potential Democratic Electorate Split Sample: n= 417 MOE +/- 4.8 percentage points. Totals may not add to 100% due torounding.
NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll South Carolina Tables of Adults and Registered Voters
NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll South Carolina January 2016 14
Support Oppose Unsure
Adults South Carolina Adults
Registered Voters South Carolina Registered Voters
Potential Republican ElectorateSouth Carolina Potential RepublicanElectorate
Potential Democratic ElectorateSouth Carolina Potential DemocraticElectorate
Party Identification
Democrat
Republican
Independent
Political Ideology
Very liberal-Liberal
Moderate
Conservative-Very conservative
Tea Party Support Tea Party Supporters
Region
Upcountry
Piedmont
Central
Pee Dee/Waccamaw
Low Country
Household IncomeLess than $50,000
$50,000 or more
EducationNot college graduate
College graduate
RaceWhite
African American
Age
18 to 29
30 to 44
45 to 59
60 or older
AgeUnder 45
45 or older
GenderMen
Women
Marital StatusMarried
Not married
ReligiosityPractice a Religion
Does not Practice a Religion
Interview TypeLandline
Cell Phone 7%
10%
7%
9%
9%
8%
11%
5%
9%
7%
11%
6%
7%
7%
10%
8%
11%
7%
7%
8%
10%
5%
9%
8%
9%
5%
7%
9%
6%
8%
7%
12%
10%
7%
9%
9%
39%
39%
39%
39%
42%
35%
43%
34%
37%
42%
37%
37%
43%
40%
58%
33%
39%
39%
36%
42%
36%
39%
43%
35%
38%
27%
29%
44%
54%
41%
23%
57%
56%
26%
38%
39%
55%
50%
54%
52%
49%
57%
45%
60%
54%
51%
51%
57%
50%
52%
31%
60%
50%
54%
57%
50%
54%
56%
48%
56%
53%
68%
64%
47%
40%
52%
70%
32%
34%
67%
53%
53%
Do you support or oppose sending U.S. combat troops to Iraq and Syria to fight ISIS?
NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll South Carolina Adults Split Sample. Interviews conducted January 17th through January 23rd, 2016, n=1244 MOE +/- 2.8 percentage points. South Carolina RegisteredVoters Split Sample: n=1154 MOE +/- 2.9 percentage points. Potential Republican Electorate Split Sample: n= 610 MOE +/- 4.0 percentage points. Potential Democratic Electorate Split Sample: n= 417MOE +/- 4.8 percentage points. Totals may not add to 100% due to rounding.
NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll South Carolina Tables of Adults and Registered Voters
NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll South Carolina January 2016 15
Support Oppose Unsure
Adults South Carolina Adults
Registered Voters South Carolina Registered Voters
Potential Republican Electorate South Carolina Potential RepublicanElectorate
Potential Democratic Electorate South Carolina Potential DemocraticElectorate
Party Identification
Democrat
Republican
Independent
Political Ideology
Very liberal-Liberal
Moderate
Conservative-Very conservative
Tea Party Support Tea Party Supporters
Region
Upcountry
Piedmont
Central
Pee Dee/Waccamaw
Low Country
Household IncomeLess than $50,000
$50,000 or more
EducationNot college graduate
College graduate
RaceWhite
African American
Age
18 to 29
30 to 44
45 to 59
60 or older
AgeUnder 45
45 or older
GenderMen
Women
Marital StatusMarried
Not married
ReligiosityPractice a Religion
Does not Practice a Religion
Interview TypeLandline
Cell Phone 4%
6%
7%
4%
6%
4%
4%
6%
6%
4%
6%
7%
3%
4%
7%
4%
4%
6%
4%
6%
5%
3%
5%
5%
7%
3%
4%
8%
3%
7%
5%
3%
5%
5%
5%
5%
49%
60%
32%
67%
47%
62%
53%
56%
63%
43%
67%
58%
49%
36%
54%
56%
51%
56%
53%
53%
48%
59%
50%
56%
61%
74%
73%
45%
23%
45%
73%
43%
39%
70%
55%
55%
47%
34%
60%
29%
47%
33%
43%
38%
31%
53%
27%
36%
47%
60%
39%
40%
45%
38%
43%
41%
47%
38%
44%
39%
33%
24%
23%
48%
74%
48%
21%
54%
56%
25%
40%
40%
Do you support or oppose same-sex marriage, that is, allowing gay or lesbian couples to legally marry?
NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll South Carolina Adults Split Sample. Interviews conducted January 17th through January 23rd, 2016, n=1264 MOE +/- 2.8 percentage points.South Carolina Registered Voters Split Sample: n=1186 MOE +/- 2.8 percentage points. Potential Republican Electorate Split Sample: n= 587 MOE +/- 4.0 percentage points.Potential Democratic Electorate Split Sample: n= 470 MOE +/- 4.5 percentage points. Totals may not add to 100% due to rounding.
NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll South Carolina Tables of Adults and Registered Voters
NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll South Carolina January 2016 16
Support Oppose Unsure
Adults South Carolina Adults
Registered Voters South Carolina Registered Voters
Potential Republican ElectorateSouth Carolina Potential RepublicanElectorate
Potential Democratic ElectorateSouth Carolina Potential DemocraticElectorate
Party Identification
Democrat
Republican
Independent
Political Ideology
Very liberal-Liberal
Moderate
Conservative-Very conservative
Tea Party Support Tea Party Supporters
Region
Upcountry
Piedmont
Central
Pee Dee/Waccamaw
Low Country
Household IncomeLess than $50,000
$50,000 or more
EducationNot college graduate
College graduate
RaceWhite
African American
Age
18 to 29
30 to 44
45 to 59
60 or older
AgeUnder 45
45 or older
GenderMen
Women
Marital StatusMarried
Not married
ReligiosityPractice a Religion
Does not Practice a Religion
Interview TypeLandline
Cell Phone 9%
14%
9%
13%
14%
9%
16%
7%
12%
11%
15%
8%
10%
12%
17%
10%
7%
14%
5%
15%
6%
18%
13%
11%
11%
11%
9%
12%
8%
11%
8%
13%
12%
8%
11%
12%
35%
38%
32%
39%
31%
42%
33%
41%
41%
30%
44%
38%
35%
23%
24%
42%
35%
37%
39%
33%
44%
32%
34%
37%
36%
58%
53%
26%
16%
33%
56%
17%
19%
55%
37%
36%
56%
48%
59%
48%
56%
48%
51%
53%
47%
60%
41%
54%
55%
66%
59%
48%
58%
49%
56%
52%
50%
51%
54%
52%
53%
31%
37%
62%
76%
56%
36%
70%
69%
37%
52%
52%
Do you support or oppose the government taking action to combat climate change?
NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll South Carolina Adults Split Sample. Interviews conducted January 17th through January 23rd, 2016, n=1264 MOE +/- 2.8 percentage points.South Carolina Registered Voters Split Sample: n=1186 MOE +/- 2.8 percentage points. Potential Republican Electorate Split Sample: n= 587 MOE +/- 4.0 percentage points.Potential Democratic Electorate Split Sample: n= 470 MOE +/- 4.5 percentage points. Totals may not add to 100% due to rounding.
NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll South Carolina Tables of Adults and Registered Voters
NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll South Carolina January 2016 17
Support Oppose Unsure
Adults South Carolina Adults
Registered Voters South Carolina Registered Voters
Potential Republican ElectorateSouth Carolina Potential RepublicanElectorate
Potential Democratic ElectorateSouth Carolina Potential DemocraticElectorate
Party Identification
Democrat
Republican
Independent
Political Ideology
Very liberal-Liberal
Moderate
Conservative-Very conservative
Tea Party Support Tea Party Supporters
Region
Upcountry
Piedmont
Central
Pee Dee/Waccamaw
Low Country
Household IncomeLess than $50,000
$50,000 or more
EducationNot college graduate
College graduate
RaceWhite
African American
Age
18 to 29
30 to 44
45 to 59
60 or older
AgeUnder 45
45 or older
GenderMen
Women
Marital StatusMarried
Not married
ReligiosityPractice a Religion
Does not Practice a Religion
Interview TypeLandline
Cell Phone 9%
11%
9%
11%
8%
13%
11%
9%
14%
6%
16%
11%
6%
5%
11%
10%
9%
11%
9%
9%
6%
12%
11%
10%
11%
11%
10%
10%
8%
10%
9%
10%
9%
10%
10%
10%
61%
54%
59%
56%
65%
50%
58%
57%
50%
67%
47%
52%
65%
71%
70%
50%
62%
55%
57%
61%
62%
53%
61%
57%
52%
38%
47%
62%
77%
58%
42%
75%
75%
44%
58%
57%
30%
35%
32%
33%
28%
38%
31%
34%
37%
27%
37%
37%
30%
24%
20%
40%
29%
34%
34%
30%
32%
35%
28%
32%
37%
52%
43%
28%
15%
32%
49%
15%
16%
47%
32%
33%
Do you support or oppose banning Muslims from entering the United States?
NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll South Carolina Adults Split Sample. Interviews conducted January 17th through January 23rd, 2016, n=1264 MOE +/- 2.8 percentage points. South Carolina Registered Vot-ers Split Sample: n=1186 MOE +/- 2.8 percentage points. Potential Republican Electorate Split Sample: n= 587 MOE +/- 4.0 percentage points. Potential Democratic Electorate Split Sample: n= 470 MOE+/- 4.5 percentage points. Totals may not add to 100% due to rounding.
NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll South Carolina Tables of Adults and Registered Voters
NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll South Carolina January 2016 18