HOW DOES RISING RURAL POPULATION DENSITY AFFECT SMALLHOLDER AGRICULTURE?

EVIDENCE FROM ETHIOPIA, KENYA & MALAWI

Milu Muyanga, J. Ricker-Gilbert , D. Headey, A. L. Josephson, T.S. Jayne

Photo: Christiaensen and Demery (2007)

Photo: Christiaensen and Demery (2007)

Presentation at the Food Seminar at IFPRI, September 4, 2014, IFPRI Headquarters , Washington DC, USA

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Motivation• Population densities in many sub-Saharan Africa

are much higher than they were two decades ago

• The rising rural population densities are profoundly

affecting farming systems

• Diminishing land sizes and limited scope of accessing land

• Limited off-farm opportunities

• Are increasing population densities inducing

innovations aimed at intensifying the use of land?

• Consistent with the induced innovation theories of Boserup

(1965) and Ruttan and Hayami (1971)

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Total rural population projections

Source: UN Pop Council, 2013

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Local analysts point to historical

land injustices as the main cause

of the 2007 post-election violence

and the 2014 killings in the coastal

region of Kenya

Increasing land conflicts-Newspaper Headlines

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Effects of population density on smallholder-intensification– analytical

framework

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Data sources• Ethiopia: 6 waves of household-level data from the Ethiopian

Rural Household Surveys covering 1293 households

• Kenya: 5 waves of panel survey data on 1,146 farm

households

• Malawi: 3 waves of rural farm households; only 1375

households were re-interviewed in the last wave

• Geographic Information Systems: Population and land

estimates data came from two GIS databases:

• Global Rural–Urban Mapping Project (GRUMP)

• GlobCover 2009

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RESULTS: ETHIOPIA

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Household landholding /adult equivalent by population density

Kilogram of fertilizer used/ha, by population density

RESULTS: KENYA 3

Figure 1: Fertilizer quantities applied per hectare cultivated 5

01

00

15

02

00

25

0

kg

s/h

a

25% 50% 75% 95%0 250 500 750 1000

persons/sq km

actual simulated

Figure 2: Total value of cash expenditures per ha cultivated

81

01

21

41

61

8

'00

0K

Sh

/ha

25% 50% 75% 95%0 250 500 750 1000

persons/sq km

actual simulated

Figure 4: Net crop income per hectare cultivated

20

40

60

80

'00

0K

Sh

25% 50% 75% 95%0 250 500 750 1000

persons/sq km

actual simulated

Figure 5: Net crop income per family labor (resident adults)

15

20

25

30

35

'00

0K

Sh

25% 50% 75% 95%0 250 500 750 1000

persons/sq km

actual simulated

RESULTS: MALAWI 2

Fertilizer kg/ha, by pop. den. Gross value of crop output/ha, by pop. den.

25th percentile

50th percentile

75th percentile

99th percentile010

00

20

00

30

00

40

00

farm

inco

me p

er

adu

lt eq

uiv

ale

nts

0 200 400 600population / square km of land

Farm Income per Adult Equivalent, by pop. den. Value of assets/adult equivalent, by pop. den.

Summary of findings

• Rural population density is projected to increase by 48% in

sub-Saharan Africa in the next 35 years

• Population density is endogenous- what are the drivers of

population density in sub-Saharan Africa?

• Rising population densities are influencing household behavior

and farming systems in sub-Saharan Africa

• Intensification is not possible beyond some population density

thresholds

• 13% of the rural population in Kenya live in areas beyond the

thresholds

• Our results do not explain the reasons for the decline in

agricultural intensification

• Signs of unsustainable agricultural intensification– reduced fallows;

soil mining, etc.

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Acknowledgements

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