IS THE SCRAMBLE FOR LAND FORECLOSING A SMALLHOLDER AGRICULTURAL EXPANSION STRATEGY?

T.S. Jayne, Antony Chapoto, Nicholas Sitko, Milu Muyanga, Chewe Nkonde and Jordan Chamberlin

Photo: Christiaensen and Demery (2007)

Presentation at the World Bank Land and Poverty Conference

Washington, DC 26 March, 2014

16

Selected newspaper headlines -- Kenya 27 28

Motivation

Do African governments have an accurate understanding of:

• how much good agricultural land remains?

• how rapidly this remaining land is being purchased/acquired?

• by whom?

• Implications for their own agricultural / rural dev plans?

62% < 25 years old

]

Age pyramids, rural SSA, 2015

Source: UN Pop Council, 2013

[0-4]

[5-9]

[10-14]

[15-19]

[20-24]

[25-29]

[30-34]

[35-39]

[40-44]

[45-49]

[50-54]

[55-59]

[60-64]

[65-69]

[70-74]

[75-79]

[80+]

-10% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10%

Rural

Male Female

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 20500

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

China

India

Other South Asia

South-East Asia

SSA

Total Rural Population (millions)

Source: UN Pop Council, 2013

Data

1. Area transferred to large-scale investors: Schoneveld (2014)

• only since 2005

• > 2000 ha

2. Existing LS farmland: Ministries of Agriculture

3. SS (0-5 ha) and MS (5-100 ha) farmland: nationally-representative farm surveys from Ministries of Ag

Conclusion 1

Rapid rise of medium-scale farmers (5-100 ha)

Table 2: Changes in farm structure among small- and medium-scale farmers in Zambia (2009 - 2012)

Landholding size Category

Number of farms % change

(2001-2012)

% of total farmland

Share of landholding

2001* 2009 2012 2009 2012 cultivated (2012)

0 – 2 ha 638,118 916,787 748,771 17.3% 24.1% 16.2% 91.2%

2 – 5 ha 159,039 366,628 418,544 163.2% 33.8% 31.7% 66.4%

5 – 10 ha 20,832 110,436 165,129 692.6% 20.3% 25.0% 49.5%

10 – 20 ha 2,352 35,898 53,454 2272.7% 12.3% 15.0% 36.7%

20 – 100 ha -- 9,030 13,839 53.3%** 9.5% 12.0% 10.9%

Total 820,341 1,438,779 1,399,737 70.6% 100.0% 100.0%

Source: Ministry of Agriculture Crop Forecast Surveys, 2009, 2012. *2001 figures are land under cultivation. ** Growth rate computed from 2009-2012 only. “na” means not available.

Table 2: Changes in farm structure among small- and medium-scale farmers in Zambia (2009 - 2012)

Landholding size Category

Number of farms % change

(2001-2012)

% of total farmland

Share of landholding

2001* 2009 2012 2009 2012 cultivated (2012)

0 – 2 ha 638,118 916,787 748,771 17.3% 24.1% 16.2% 91.2%

2 – 5 ha 159,039 366,628 418,544 163.2% 33.8% 31.7% 66.4%

5 – 10 ha 20,832 110,436 165,129 692.6% 20.3% 25.0% 49.5%

10 – 20 ha 2,352 35,898 53,454 2272.7% 12.3% 15.0% 36.7%

20 – 100 ha -- 9,030 13,839 53.3%** 9.5% 12.0% 10.9%

Total 820,341 1,438,779 1,399,737 70.6% 100.0% 100.0%

Source: Ministry of Agriculture Crop Forecast Surveys, 2009, 2012. *2001 figures are land under cultivation. ** Growth rate computed from 2009-2012 only. “na” means not available.

Table 2: Changes in farm structure among small- and medium-scale farmers in Zambia (2009 - 2012)

Landholding size Category

Number of farms % change

(2001-2012)

% of total farmland

Share of landholding

2001* 2009 2012 2009 2012 cultivated (2012)

0 – 2 ha 638,118 916,787 748,771 17.3% 24.1% 16.2% 91.2%

2 – 5 ha 159,039 366,628 418,544 163.2% 33.8% 31.7% 66.4%

5 – 10 ha 20,832 110,436 165,129 692.6% 20.3% 25.0% 49.5%

10 – 20 ha 2,352 35,898 53,454 2272.7% 12.3% 15.0% 36.7%

20 – 100 ha -- 9,030 13,839 53.3%** 9.5% 12.0% 10.9%

Total 820,341 1,438,779 1,399,737 70.6% 100.0% 100.0%

Source: Ministry of Agriculture Crop Forecast Surveys, 2009, 2012. *2001 figures are land under cultivation. ** Growth rate computed from 2009-2012 only. “na” means not available.

Conclusion 2

Land under control of MS farms exceeds that of LS (foreign + domestic)

More land cultivated/owned by MS than by large-scale, including LS foreign investors

Large scale (foreign+domestic)

Medium scale (5-100 ha)

Million hectares

Ghana (cultivated) 3.08 4.21

Kenya (cultivated) 0.69 0.84

Zambia (owned) 2.11 2.47

Medium-scale farmers’ characteristics: Kenya (n=300)

  Farm-led growth

strategy (n=82)

Non-farm led growth

strategy (n=118)

Heads had non-farm job 42% 58%

_civil servant 71% 68%

_private sector 29% 32%

Heads had business 52% 42%

Heads level of education:    

_informal 12% 7%

_primary 43% 24%

_secondary 27% 22%

_post-secondary 18% 47%

Father to household head:    

_landholding owned (ha) 94.7 45.1

_non-farm job 33% 38%

_some formal education 35% 40%

Medium-scale farmers’ characteristics: Kenya (n=300)

  Farm-led growth

strategy (n=82)

Non-farm led growth

strategy (n=118)

Heads had non-farm job 42% 58%

_civil servant 71% 68%

_private sector 29% 32%

Heads had business 52% 42%

Heads level of education:    

_informal 12% 7%

_primary 43% 24%

_secondary 27% 22%

_post-secondary 18% 47%

Father to household head:    

_landholding owned (ha) 94.7 45.1

_non-farm job 33% 38%

_some formal education 35% 40%

Medium-scale farmers’ characteristics: Kenya (n=300)

  Farm-led growth

strategy (n=82)

Non-farm led growth

strategy (n=118)

Heads had non-farm job 42% 58%

_civil servant 71% 68%

_private sector 29% 32%

Heads had business 52% 42%

Heads level of education:    

_informal 12% 7%

_primary 43% 24%

_secondary 27% 22%

_post-secondary 18% 47%

Father to household head:    

_landholding owned (ha) 94.7 45.1

_non-farm job 33% 38%

_some formal education 35% 40%

Conclusion 3

Medium-scale farmers control more land than small-scale farmers (0-5 ha) in Zambia and most likely in Ghana as well

Large scale Medium-scale

(5-100 ha)

Small-scale (0-5 ha)

Total land controlled

Million hectares

Ghana (2005) 3.08 4.21 5.08 = 12.37

Kenya (2006) 0.69 0.84 2.63 = 4.16

Zambia (2012) 2.11 2.47 2.09 = 6.67

Large scale

Medium-scale

(5-100 ha)

Small-scale

(0-5 ha)

Total land controlled

PAC remaining (arable +

grasslands)

Million hectares

Ghana 3.08 4.21 5.08 = 12.37 3.56

Kenya 0.69 0.84 2.63 = 4.16 1.01

Zambia 2.11 2.47 2.09 = 6.67 3.35

Conclusion 4

Potentially available cropland (PAC) is 25% or less in relation to land already utilized in Kenya and Ghana

Conclusion 4: PAC is sizeable in Zambia, but small as proportion of land already utilized in Kenya and

Ghana

PAC including forest land / (PAC +

already utilized)

PAC excluding forest land /

(PAC + already utilized)

Million hectares

Ghana (cultivated) 26.8% 22.4%

Kenya (cultivated) 21.5% 19.5%

Zambia (owned) 43.1% 33.4%

Conclusion 5

Rising concentration of landholdings and cultivated area

Gini coefficients of landholding

Period Movement in Gini coefficient:

Ghana (cult. area) 1992 2005 0.54 0.65

Kenya (cult. area) 1994 2006 0.51 0.55

Zambia (landholding) 2001 2012 0.42 0.49

Conclusions

1. Rate of growth of medium-scale farms (MS: 5-100 ha) 10 times faster than small-scale (SS: 0-5 ha) farms

2. Despite major focus on large-scale “land grabs”, more farm land is owned by MS farmers than by LS farms

3. Land controlled by MS farmers > that of SS farmers (0-5 ha) in at least 1 of the 3 countries examined (probably 2/3 by 2014)

4. Mean farm size rising in some countries even while holdings are gradually shrinking for most farm hhs

5. Rising Gini coefficients over time in landholdings / cultivated area

6. Potentially available cropland as % of total utilized + unutilized arable land: ranges from 43.1% (Zambia) to 21.5% (Kenya)

Implications

1. Revolutionary changes in farm structure in Africa

2. Lack of clarity about the potential for smallholder land expansion

3. While productivity growth on existing farmland is most desirable path, area expansion will be required for employment of the rapidly growing labor force

4. Elite take-over of land? Potential for area expansion for smallholder farmers / indigenous rural communities?

Stylized fact:

A stylized fact is often a broad generalization that summarizes some complicated statistical relationship, which although essentially true, may have inaccuracies in the detail.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stylized_fact

Table 3. Changes in farm structure in Kenya, 1994-2006.

Total Size of landholding (hectares)

1994

0.01-0.59 0.6-0.99 1.0-1.99 2.0-2.99 3.0-3.99 4.0-4.9 5.0-7.99 8.0+

Number of farm households 2,404,076 547,165 530,124 615,054 310,202 95,964 119,197 70,747 115,622 % of hhs 22.8% 22.1% 25.6% 12.9% 4.0% 5.0% 2.9% 4.8%

mean landholding size (ha) 0.3 0.8 1.5 2.5 3.5 4.5 6.5 13.2

total land in size category (ha) 164,149 424,100 922,581 775,506 335,873 536,388 459,858 1,525,728

% of total landholdings 3.1% 8.3% 17.8% 15.5% 6.7% 10.1% 9.0% 29.5%

2006 0.01-0.59 0.6-0.99 1.0-1.99 2.0-2.99 3.0-3.99 4.0-4.9 5.0-7.99 8.0+

Number of farm households 3,008,975 1,342,987 677,704 619,329 233,783 59,050 39,178 12,578 24,366

% of hhs 44.6% 22.5% 20.6% 7.8% 2.0% 1.3% 0.4% 0.8%

mean landholding size (ha) 0.29 0.74 1.33 2.32 3.39 4.39 6.25 31.12

total land in size category (ha) 388,392 499,942 826,433 542,821 200,315 172,050 78,674 758,280

% of total landholdings 10.9% 14.2% 24.3% 16.0% 5.7% 4.8% 2.1% 22.0%

Source: 1994 Welfare Monitoring Survey; 2006 Kenya Income and Household Budget Survey.