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Climate Change Adaptation Sector Strategy for Rural Human Settlements Department of Rural Development and Land Affairs

June 2013

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Draft Climate Change Adaptation Sector Plan for Rural Settlement

Contents1. Background......................................................................................... 14

1.1. Policy context and regulatory framework............................................................14

1.2. Rural Human Settlements....................................................................................16

1.3. South Africa’s Rural People..................................................................................17

2. Climate Change Risks and Vulnerabilities.............................................19

2.1. Conceptual Framework........................................................................................19

2.1.1. Climate Science and Uncertainty.......................................................................................20

2.2. Environmental risk...............................................................................................21

2.2.1. Hazard Exposure................................................................................................................21

2.2.2. Sensitivity..........................................................................................................................24

2.2.3. Climate disasters...............................................................................................................25

2.3. Social vulnerability and adaptive capacity............................................................27

2.3.1. Infrastructure and Services................................................................................................27

2.3.2. Health................................................................................................................................29

2.3.3. Economic vulnerability......................................................................................................30

2.3.4. Mapping social vulnerability..............................................................................................32

3. The need for adaptation......................................................................33

3.1. The links between adaptation and development.................................................34

3.2. Adaptation responses..........................................................................................36

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4. Strategic Framework............................................................................41

4.1. Guiding principles................................................................................................41

4.1.1. Climate change related vulnerability must be understood in the local context................41

4.1.2. Adaptation planning must be shaped by local participation..............................................41

4.1.3. Adaptation must build on local capabilities.......................................................................42

4.1.4. Acknowledging climate justice..........................................................................................42

4.1.5. Evidence based planning...................................................................................................43

4.2. Goals and objectives............................................................................................43

5. Implementation Plan...........................................................................50

5.1. Instruments.........................................................................................................50

5.1.1. Local adaption planning.....................................................................................................50

5.1.2. Sustainable rural livelihoods..............................................................................................51

5.1.3. Sustainable land management..........................................................................................51

5.1.4. Sustainable eco-system services........................................................................................52

5.1.5. Climate resilient infrastructure and services.....................................................................53

5.1.6. Disaster Risk Management................................................................................................53

5.1.7. Research to support rural resilience..................................................................................54

5.2. Institutional Arrangements..................................................................................54

5.3. Financing Adaptation...........................................................................................56

5.4. Priority programmes and projects........................................................................57

5.4.1. Integration of climate change responses into the CRDP....................................................57

Local adaptation planning................................................................................................58

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Sustainable livelihoods and protection of eco-system services.........................................58

Delivery of climate resilient services and infrastructure...................................................59

5.4.2. Climate resilient land use management and spatial planning...........................................59

5.4.3. Disaster risk management and planning...........................................................................60

5.4.4. Research programme to support climate resilient rural human settlements....................61

5.5. Monitoring and Evaluation Framework................................................................61

5.5.1. Guidelines for the monitoring and evaluation of projects.................................................70

6. References...........................................................................................72

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Definitions of Key TermsAdaptationinvolves adjustments to enhance the viability of rural development and to reduce its vulnerability to climate, including its current variability and extreme events as well as longer term climate change (Smit 2005)

Adaptive Capacity refers to the financial, physical, cultural and political ability of societies to make the required changes needed to survive the adverse effects of climate change. Adaptive capacity is defined by how people experience and survive the exposure to hazards.

Climate refers to the average weather over time for a specific region (FAO 2007).

Climate change refers to any change in climate over time, whether due to natural variability or anthropogenic forces (FAO 2007).

Climate-resilient society is one that has taken measures to adapt and respond to climate change (UNDP 2010).

Climate variability refers to variations in the mean state of the given climate for a specific region over time (FAO 2007).

Climate Change Vulnerability is a result of a combination between the environmental risks that society’s face and their abilities to cope with those risks.

Rural Human Settlements are places in which people live and work that lie outside of the urban edge (DRDLR 2013).

Weather is the current atmospheric condition in a specific area. The weather includes variables such as temperature, rainfall and wind. Weather happens currently or in the very near future (FAO 2007).

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List of AbbreviationsACCCA Advancing Capacity to Support Climate Change Adaptation

ANC African National Congress

ARC Agricultural Research Council

CBO Community Based Organization

CO2 Carbon Dioxide

CRDP Comprehensive Rural Development Programme

CSAG Climate Systems Analysis Group

CSDI Communication for Sustainable Development Initiative

CSIR Centre for Scientific and Industrial Research

DAFF Department of Agriculture and Forestry

DEA Department of Environmental Affairs

DRDLR Department of Rural Development and Land Reform

DRM Disaster Risk Management

DRR Disaster Risk Reduction

DST Department of Science and Technology

DWA Department of Water Affairs

EWS Early Warning Systems

FAO Food and Agriculture Organization

GAP Geo Spatial Analysis Platform

GCM Global Circulation model

GEAR Growth, Employment and Redistribution

GHG Green House Gas

IPCC International Panel on Climate Change

ISRDS Integrated Sustainable Rural Development Strategy

NARYSEC National Rural Youth Service Corp

NCCR National Climate Change Response

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NDP National Development Plan

NDMC National Disaster Risk Management Centre

NRF National research Foundation

NGO Non-Governmental Organization

NPC National Planning commission

NT National Treasury

RDP Reconstruction and Development Plan

REID Rural Infrastructure Enterprise Development

RID Rural Infrastructure Development

SADC Southern African Development Community

SARVA South African Risk and Vulnerability Atlas

SANBI South African National Biodiversity Institute

SAWS South African Weather Services

SLF Sustainable Livelihoods Framework

UCT University of Cape Town

UN United Nations

UNESCAP United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific

UNFCCC United Nations FrameworkConvention on Climate Change

UNISDRUnited Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction

WRC Water Research Commission

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List of tables and figuresFigure 1: Employment in agriculture, first quarter 2001 - 2013...................................................18

Figure 2: Conceptual Model for Climate Change Vulnerability.....................................................19

Table 1: Potential impacts of projected temperature increases..................................................21

Table 2: Potential impacts of projected changes in precipitation patterns..................................22

Table 3: Potential impacts of projected changes in oceanic systems...........................................24

Figure 3: Composite mapping of social vulnerability indicators...................................................32

Table 4: Adaptation Responses....................................................................................................36

Figure 4: CRDP Programme Phases..............................................................................................51

Figure 5: Institutional Arrangements............................................................................................55

Figure 6: Phases for incorporating adaptation into CRDP sites....................................................58

Table 5: Logical Framework for Adaptation Plan..........................................................................62

Figure 7: Steps in the monitoring and evaluation process...........................................................70

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARYThe Climate Change Adaptation Sector Plan for Rural Human Settlements has been prepared by DRDLR in fulfilment of its mandate to coordinate delivery of Outcome 7: Vibrant, equitable and sustainable rural communities and food security for all. Further, the development of sector based climate change adaptation plans by national departments is mandated by the National Climate Change Response White Paper (NCCR), adopted by Cabinet in 2011.This adaptation plan is guided by the National Development Plan (NDP), which encapsulates the overarching vision of the country until 2030 and aims to eliminate poverty and reduce inequality by 2030. The NDP recognizes that government attempts to reduce rural poverty since 1994 have shown that there is no simple answer to this challenge.

Climate Change is associated with increased variability in weather and a heightened risk of extreme weather events that may result in climate-related disasters, which include:

Droughts,which caused damage estimated at R1 150 million between 2000 and 2009.

Floods and storms, which caused damage estimated at R4 700 million, and have resulted in 140 deaths between 2000 and 2009.

Veld fires caused damage estimated at R1,750 million, and 34 deaths during the 2000 – 2009 period.

The table below summarises the key impacts of the changes to temperature, rainfall and oceanic systems that result from climate change:

Bio-physical changes in climate Potential Impacts

Increased number of warm and very hot days and increased maximum daily temperatures

Increased evaporation impacting on the availability of surface water

Soil degradation due to increased acidity, nutrient depletion, declining microbiological diversity, lower water retention and increased runoff.

Positive or negative impacts on crops and growing season length depending on local topography, precipitation and crop types. Some crops, particularly deciduous fruits, require a chill factor during winter to be productive.

Increased incidence of heat waves and associated risks for human and livestock health from heat stress, particularly for the very old and young, and those already suffering from illness.

Increase in the concentration and range of pests and pathogens that comprise human and livestock disease vectors, such as malaria and ticks.

Increased risk of wild fires and associated damage to crops, property and infrastructure.

Increased number of consecutive dry days

Decreases in runoff and stream flow and an increased risk of drought, affecting crop production, food security and rural livelihoods.

Reduced stream flow is a particular threat for rural communities that are

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directly dependant on surface water resources.

Loss of soil moisture affecting crops and increasing the risk of soil erosion due to wind.

Increased risk of veldfires and resultant damage to property, grazing, and crops.

Increase in number of consecutive wet days and/or increase in extreme precipitation events

Increased risk of floods, with consequent risks of damage to crops, property and loss of life.

Water logging of soil affecting crops.

Increased risk from water borne diseases such as cholera.

Damage to bulk water infrastructure, irrigation systems and water reticulation.

Damage to property and crops from winds associated with violent storms.

Extreme precipitation events are often preceded by lightening, which is responsible for a significant number of fatalities in rural areas every year

Changes in the variability and timing of precipitation

Farmers rely on predictable rains for timing the planting of crops, and subsistence farmers practicing rain-fed agriculture are particularly at risk.

Increased variability and unpredictable timing of rainfall impacts directly on the management of catchments and bulk water infrastructure, threatening the availability of water.

Sea level rise Salinisation of water sources provided by coastal aquifers on which some coastal communities depend

Damages to infrastructure and property located in coastal areas with a low elevation, aggravated by storm surges associated with extreme weather.

Oceanic warming Changes to the distribution and ranges of estuarine and marine species important to livelihoods in rural fishing communities.

Ocean acidification Impacts on the development and reproduction of estuarine and marine species important to livelihoods in rural fishing communities.

Because of the high levels of poverty and low levels of service delivery and infrastructure experienced by many rural communities, they are particularly vulnerable to such disasters. Drivers of social vulnerability to climate change include:

Inadequate access to basic services such as water, sanitation, electricity, and waste management

Inadequate access to health care facilities

Inadequate access to infrastructure such as housing, roads and communications.

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Infants and the old are more physiologically vulnerable to the effects of climate change on human health, and communities with a low number of economically active adults are socio-economically vulnerable.

Households with low income levels are less able to cope with and respond to the environmental stresses and shocks associated with climate change. Similarly, lack of access to land and insecure tenure increases social vulnerability.

The scope of this plan embraces human settlements whichlocated outside of the urban edge, as defined in spatial development plans. This may include

Urban Fringe: settlements on the periphery of metropolitan areas and towns, which may include informal settlements, low cost housing and high-income low density settlements.

Dense Rural Settlements: consisting of “betterment settlements” as a legacy of apartheid planning in the former homelands and informal settlements.

Rural villages: these can be unplanned traditional settlements, or planned settlements that service farms.

Dispersed and scattered settlements: these consist of unplanned traditional homesteads and settlements in commercial farming areas.

Within each of these typologies, and even within particular rural communities, there is a large degree of diversity in settlement patterns, socio-economic status, and access to services of households.South Africa has experienced a long-term and ongoing trend of urbanisation. Currently almost 39 percent of the population resides in the rural areas, and on current trends this will decrease to 20 percent by the year 2050. For many in the rural areas, particularly the densely populated former homelands, life is beset with struggles around access to basic necessities such as potable water, sanitation, fuel for cooking and high levels of poverty and food insecurity. One in two rural households is dependent on social grants, compared with one in five houses in urban centres.

The Climate Change Adaptation Sector Plan for Rural Human Settlements is founded on the following guiding principles, which will be used to inform adaptation responses in the sector:

Climate change related vulnerability must be understood in the local context – climate change risks and vulnerabilities are location specific.

Adaptation planning must be shaped by local participation – community driven adaptation responses must place control and resources in the hands of local communities and view rural people as partners and assets in development.

Adaptation must build on local capabilities – responses should leverage the resources, efforts and capabilities of local areas.

Acknowledging climate justice – adaptation responses must seek to allocate resources in the context of disproportionate needs and historical inequalities, with the rural poor most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, despite have contributed least to the causes.

Evidence based planning – climate change responses should be based on scientific evidence and should initially focus on delivering outcomes that are known to be intrinsically beneficial to rural communities.

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The overarching goal of the Climate Change Adaptation Sector Plan for Rural Human Settlements is to create sustainable livelihoods that are resilient to the shocks and stresses caused by climate change and do not adversely affect the environment for present and future generations. To achieve this, the adaptation plan has been structured around the following strategic objectives:

1. Support the development of community and local climate adaptation plans – climate change vulnerability is best understood in terms of the particular environmental risks and socio-economic conditions pertaining to particular rural human settlements, and adaptation responses need to be tailored to local needs and build on local capabilities.

2. Build local adaptive capacity through supporting sustainable livelihoods – diversifying income sources for poor rural households, many of whom depend on government grants and subsistence agriculture for survival, is necessary to reduce their risks and combat rural poverty.

3. Support sustainable land management that promotes climate resilience– land use management and land reform processes need to not only protect and enhance productivity and transformation in the agricultural sector, but also to build resilience to the environmental impacts of climate change and protect natural assets by reducing land degradation and soil erosion.

4. Protect ecosystem services to rural communities– ecosystems provide critical services to rural communities such as clean water, air, biodiversity and productive soils. Protecting ecosystems not only builds the resilience of rural communities to climate change, but is also essential to the sustainability of urban centres.

5. Promote access to climate resilient services and infrastructure – lack of access or inadequate access to basic services and infrastructure increases the exposure and vulnerability of rural communities to the impacts of climate change.

6. Strengthen disaster preparedness and response – Rural human settlements are in many cases particularly vulnerable to climate related disasters as a consequence of the increased reliance of many rural households on natural resources, a high incidence of poverty, as well as issues of access as a result of remoteness and inadequate transport and communications infrastructure.

7. Invest in long term research on more effective ways to supports rural household climate resilience – akey goal of climate research is to reduce the uncertainty associated with climate change and provide timely, relevant information to inform planning processes and develop appropriate adaptation responses.

Designing and implementing climate change adaptation responses will require multi-sectoral coordination and cooperative governance across different government departments and spheres of governance, as well as coordination with non-governmental stakeholders. For this reason, the adaptation leverages a broad range of instruments for implementation, including partnerships with other government departments and agencies. Local adaptation responses can be supported by planning instruments such as IDPs and associated planning instruments for local government. The Spatial Planning and Land Use Management Act, Act No.16 of 2013 gives legal effect to National, Provincial, Regional and Municipal Spatial Development Frameworks,land use schemes and Municipal Planning Tribunals.

Four priority programmes for the implementation of the plan have been identified:

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1. Integration of climate change responses into the CRDP – this forms the core of the plan and consists of undertaking adaptation planning process in CRDP sites in partnership with the relevant local municipalities, piloting adaptation responses and strategies at these sites, and building on success to take adaptation response to scale while learning from failures.

2. Climate resilient land use management and spatial planning – this involves developing norms and standards for incorporating climate change risk and vulnerability into spatial development frameworks, land use schemes, and environmental impact assessments.

3. Disaster risk management and planning – this involves partnering with the National Disaster Risk Management Centre to improve early warning systems, develop climate-related disaster response strategies for rural areas, and undertaking local disaster risk and vulnerability assessments to inform local government planning.

4. Research programme to support climate resilient rural human settlements – the key research areas in this programme include climate resilient agriculture relevant to small-scale and subsistence farmers, technology innovation in service delivery to rural human settlements, and an audit of indigenous agricultural knowledge and practices.

The monitoring and evaluation framework for the plan is based on a logical framework for the adaptation plan itself, and monitoring and evaluation of adaptation projects.

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1. Background

This section of the Climate Change Adaption Sector Plan for the Rural Human Settlements (referred to as “the adaptation plan” in this document) sets out the mandate of the Department of Rural Development and Land Reform (DRDLR) in developing the plan, by describing the institutional scope of the plan and the social context in which it is framed.

1.1. Policy context and regulatory framework

The DRDLR was established as a result of the ruling party’s Polokwane resolutions in 2009 and replaces the previous Department of Land Affairs (DLA). The mandate of the DLA in relation to reform of apartheid patterns of land ownership is taken up by the DRDLR within the context of an integrated strategy for sustainable agrarian transformation to support socio-economic development of rural areas. The central programme of the DRDLR is the Comprehensive Rural Development Programme (CRDP).

The DRDLR is responsible for coordinating delivery in terms of the presidential outcome 7: Vibrant, equitable and sustainable rural communities and food security for all. The 6 outputs which contribute to this outcome are defined as:

Sustainable agrarian reform with a thriving farming sector

Improved access to affordable and diverse food

Improved services to support livelihoods

Rural job creation and promoting economic livelihoods

Enabling institutional environment for sustainable and inclusive growth

Cross cutting/Institutional Support

The DRDLR coordinates delivery of these outputs through the Implementation Forum chaired by the Minister of Rural Development and Land Reform and on which the provincial MECs for the relevant provincial departments and District Mayors are represented as well as ministers of the core participating departments, which include the Departments of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, Co-operative Governance and Traditional Affairs, Trade and Industry, Water and Environmental Affairs, Energy, Public Works and Public Enterprise (amongst others).

The technical forum is chaired by the Director General of the DRDLR, and includes the Director Generals of the core participating national departments, Heads of Department of the provincial departments and District Mayors.

The DRDLR and its delivery partners also contribute to the following presidential outcomes that are directly relevant to the climate change adaptation plan:

Outcome 4: strengthening employment, economic growth and equality in line with the job creation model

Outcome 8: Sustainable human settlements and improved quality of household life

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Outcome 9: meeting basic needs of communities and promoting appropriate service delivery models in rural areas

Outcome 10: sustainable natural resource management

The outputs of Outcome 10, for which the DRDLR is a core partner, are particularly relevant to the adaptation plan:

Enhanced quality and quantity of water resources;

Reduced greenhouse gas emissions, climate change impacts and improved atmospheric quality;

Sustainable environmental management; and

Protected biodiversity.

The development of sector based climate change adaptation plans by national departments is mandated by the National Climate Change Response White Paper (NCCR), adopted by Cabinet in 2011. Section 5.7 of the NCCR is devoted to rural human settlements and notes the vulnerability of rural communities with high dependence on natural resources to climate change, particularly in relation to agricultural production. The guidelines for adaptation in rural human settlements provided in the NCCR are to:

Educate subsistence and small-scale farmers on the potential risks of climate change, and support them to develop adaptation strategies with on-farm demonstration and experimentation. Adaptation strategies will include conservation agriculture practices including water harvesting and crop rotation, and will prioritise indigenous knowledge and local adaptive responses.

Empower local communities, particularly women who are often primary producers, in the process of designing and implementing adaptation strategies.

Design and implement economic and livelihood diversification programmes in rural areas.

Within the country’s research and development system, prioritise technologies for climate change adaptation within rural areas, including low water-use irrigation systems, improved roll-out of rainwater harvesting strategies, and drought resistant seed varieties.

Target adaptation programmes to build resilience among the most vulnerable sections of the rural population and ensure that disaster management architecture includes the provision of safety nets for rural communities most vulnerable to theimpacts of climate change. This includes enhancing their knowledge of sustainable environmental conditions and optimising the ecosystem services that these provide. (NCCR, 2011)

The National Development Plan (NDP) (2012) encapsulates the overarching vision of the country until 2030 and aims to eliminate poverty and reduce inequality by 2030. The NDP recognizes that government attempts to reduce rural poverty since 1994 have shown that there is no simple answer to this challenge. Both climate change and rural development present a complex and multi-dimensional set of challenges for the state that require cross cutting sectoral approaches involving horizontal departmental coordination and vertical alignment between national, provincial and local government, traditional authorities, development agencies and civil society.

The NDP puts forward three possible solutions to rural poverty alleviation which are not exclusive:

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Enabling the poor to migrate to cities where livelihoods may be more accessible;

Diversifying rural livelihoods;

Retaining and reviving rural agriculture.

Particularly important to the implementation of the adaptation plan in the context of rural communities and land reform is the role of traditional authorities as defined in the Constitution, Act No. 108 of 1996, and the Traditional Leadership and Governance Framework Amendment Act, Act No.41 of 2003 and the Communal Land Rights Act, Act No.11 of 2004. These establish the role of traditional councils in the administration of communal land and are particularly relevant to the former homelands, in which some of the most socially vulnerable rural settlements are located. The Restitution of Land Rights Act, Act No. 22 of 1994 (and subsequent amendments) establish the legal basis for land reform through land restitution, and provide the legislative mandate for the Commission on Restitution of Land Rights.

South African local government consists of district, local and metropolitan municipalities. In general, district municipalities are not directly responsible for service delivery, but instead are responsible for district wide planning, coordination and strategic economic development of the local municipalities which fall within their jurisdiction. The powers and responsibilities of local government institutions are established in the constitution and the Municipal Structures Act of 1998. Of particular importance in relation to the adaptation plan is the Spatial Planning and Land Use Management Bill, introduced to parliament in 2012, which describes the national, provincial and local government framework for spatial planning and land use management.The bill explicitly stipulates that spatial planning and land use management should conform to:

“the principle of spatial resilience, whereby flexibility in spatial plans, policies and land use management systems are accommodated to ensure sustainable livelihoods in communities most likely to suffer the impacts of economic and environmental shocks;”

1.2. Rural Human Settlements

The Comprehensive Plan for the Development of Sustainable Human Settlements adopted by Cabinet in 2004 represented a shift in government focus from the delivery of housing to an integrated approach to human settlements. Building on the comprehensive plan, the presidential delivery agreement for Outcome 8 defines sustainable human settlements and improved quality of household life as:

Access to adequate accommodation that is suitable, relevant, appropriately located, affordable and fiscally sustainable.

Access to basic services (water, sanitation, refuse removal and electricity).

Security of tenure irrespective of ownership or rental, formal or informal structures.

Access to social services and economic opportunity within reasonable distance.

The Department of Rural Development and Land Reform (DRDLR) considers areaslying outside of the urban edge, as defined in spatial development plans, to be rural. The 1998 White Paper on Local Government included a typology of human settlements which includes the following settlement types that may fall outside the formal urban edge:

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Urban Fringe: referring to settlements outside the urban core, particularly on the periphery of metropolitan areas that often include informal settlements and middle-order low income settlements, as well as high-income low density settlements.

Dense Rural Settlements:consisting of “betterment settlements” as a legacy of apartheid planning in the former homelands and informal settlements.

Rural villages: these can be unplanned traditional settlements, or planned settlements that service farms.

Dispersed and scattered settlements: these consist of unplanned traditional homesteads and settlements in commercial farming areas.

In addition, there are many small towns and villages in which the majority of households fall within the urban edge, but which nevertheless have close links to surrounding rural areas and farms.Within each of these typologies, and even within particular rural communities, there is a large degree of diversity in settlement patterns, socio-economic status, and access to servicesof households.The National Development Plan (NDP) indicates that research is required into understanding the spatial variation of rural areas so that development interventions can adequately address the unique challenges which particular rural areas face.

Access to land and land ownership within rural human settlements is mediated through a continuum of legal and extra-legal tenure arrangements. While most commercial farms are privately owned, and ownership patterns continue to reflect historical patterns of racial inequality, the Land Reform (Labour Tenants) Act, Act No.3 of 1996 provides labour tenants living on farms with a measure of tenure security that is separate from their status as employees. Within informal settlements, which in many cases are located on state land, extra-legal tenure arrangements which by definition provide little formal tenure security to households are often in force.

Particularly in the former homelands, but also in the case of communal land claims, much land is communally owned and land use rights, which may be overlapping, have been allocated through customary practice. The Communal Lands Rights Act, Act No. 11 of 2004, sought to regulate and establish the role of traditional authorities and traditional councils in relation to communal lands, but significant portions of the Act were found to be unconstitutional in a 2010 ruling, and it has not been implemented. In practice, land use rights for rural land in the former homelands and rural land that has been restituted are very often allocated through traditional authorities.

The weakness of rural institutions meant to provide communication channels to government is a challenge for many rural communities. The factors leading to these weakened institutions include contested indigenous institutions, weak democratic structures, local governments that lack capacity, lack of alignment and coordination between government and the non- governmental sector in pursuing development initiatives, corruption in local government and contestation between traditional leadership structures and democratic institutions.

1.3. South Africa’s Rural People

The people of South Africa’s rural areas are characterised by considerable diversity between and within rural communities, both in terms of culture and socio-economic status. AlthoughSouth Africa has experienced a long-term and ongoing trend of urbanisation, almost39 per cent of our population currently reside in the rural areas.Based on current trends, thisis expected to decrease to 20 per cent by the year 2050 (National Planning Commission 2013).

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The legacy of colonialism and apartheid is deeply etched in patterns of unequal land distribution and wealth in South Africa’s rural communities. This is reflected in the fact that 72 percent of the rural population reside in the former homelands on 22% of the country’s land (Department of Agriculture 2011). Most commercial agriculture happens on the remaining 88 percent of rural land, carried out by a mere 28% of the rural population, which includes farm workers and commercial farmers. The division of ownership and labour in the commercial farming sector continues to reflect the racial and economic inequalities of apartheid.

For many in the rural areas, particularly the densely populated former homelands, life is beset with struggles around access to basic necessities such as potable water, sanitation, fuel for cooking and high levels of poverty and food insecurity. The overwhelming majority of the rural population is poor and reliant on social grants, remittances from the urban areas and subsistence farming. One in two households in rural areas is dependent on social grants, compared with one in five houses in urban centres.

In the densely settled former homelands, agriculture is compromised by degradation and overuse of land (DEA 2011). The increased reliance in rural areas on social grants and wage incomes is both a cause and effect of the disintegration of traditional networks and community structures, with households and wage earners having to move in search of work. Rural households attempt to diversify incomes through participation in both formal and informal markets. However, for many rural households the erratic nature of household income means that subsistence agriculture remains an important source of food security.

The commercial agricultural sector has struggled to adjust to the structural reforms and deregulation that accompanied the democratic transition. This has resulted in declines in agricultural productivity and employment, and general underinvestment in the sector.

Figure 1: Employment in agriculture, first quarter 2001 - 2013

Source: StatsSA - Quarterly Labour Force Survey (1st quarter 2007 – 2013) and Labour Force Survey, (revised figures for March, 2001 – 2008)

Much of the economic growth that does take place in rural areas is happening along major transport lines, in major tourism hubs and along the national borders and is contributing to a densification and urbanisation of affected rural communities that informs the followingprojections for the rural population of South Africa:

In the future the size of the South African rural population will reduce and then stabilize.

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Migration to urban areas and within the rural area itself will increase in the near future resulting in a densification of rural informal settlements.

Rural households which are the most poverty stricken are likely to be those that migrate towards urban centres (NPC 2013).

Given the potential of agriculture to alleviate household poverty, government is attempting to raise the profile of agriculture in rural communities. The current and future impacts of climate change on food production and food security, both in the local and international context, are significant. Since 2003 the global long term trend of lower food prices that has held since the green revolution of the 1960’s has been replaced by a trend of price increases and increased price volatility (FAO,2011). Since food is often the single biggest expense for poor rural households, increased prices may translate directly into reduced food security. At the same time a sustained increase in food prices may represent a market opportunity for food producers in rural areas. The role of agriculture in releasing the poverty cycle in South Africa should be more intensely investigated (NPC 2013).

2. Climate Change Risks and Vulnerabilities

This section of the adaptation plan summarises the main findings contained in the report on the Climate Change Risk and Vulnerability Assessment that accompanies this plan, and which contains details of the modelling and reports used as well as full referencing of the different sources used. The report describes a conceptual framework for understanding climate change risks and vulnerabilities and draws from current scientific modelling of the future impacts of climate change to provide a spatial overview of environmental risks and social vulnerabilities in relation to climate change.

While climate change is a global phenomenon, the impacts are specific to local contexts. For this reason, local risk and vulnerability assessments are critical to responding effectively to climate change. It is suggested that the general approach to understanding vulnerability adopted in the national assessment should be adapted and applied to local adaptation planning processes.

2.1. Conceptual Framework

The conceptual framework used by the UNDP to determining climate change vulnerabilityis summarised as:

Vulnerability = exposure to climate hazards and perturbations x sensitivity – adaptive capacity (UNDP 2010)

Figure 2: Conceptual Model for Climate Change Vulnerability

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In this approach:

Climate hazards are defined as the direct impacts of climate change such as changes in temperature and precipitation.

Climate sensitivity refers to the manner in which living systems respond to climate change, such as changes in the distribution and incidence of plant and animal species.

Adaptive capacity refers to human, material, financial, natural and political capabilities which people possess that will allow them to make the required adjustments enabling them to cope with climate change. Adaptive capacity is dependent on the level of social vulnerability which people face and is therefore high when social vulnerability is low and vice versa.

Hazard exposure and sensitivity can be understood as encompassing environmental risk. It is not practical to directly assess adaptive capacity at a national scale, since this can only be determined by a detailed assessment of subjective factors determined at the scale of particular communities and even households. There is however a number of pertinent indicators of social vulnerability that can be used to identify settlement characteristics that lead to reduced adaptive capacity. Overall vulnerability to climate change becomes then an outcome of the interaction between social vulnerability and environmental risk.

2.1.1. Climate Science and Uncertainty

Climate projections are developed through combining climate models that are continuously being updated, refined and improved with scenarios that estimate the future forcing effects of greenhouse gas emissions on the climate. The resulting climate change projectionsdo not predict the future, but rather define a range of possible futures in terms of probabilities, and help climate scientists understand current trends.Which projections will most closely approximate the real world depend not only on improvements in modelling climate, but also on future trends in term of economic growth, population growth and the impacts of internationallytreaties to restrict emissions. As a result, climate change presents a difficult challenge for policy makers, who need to make decisions that may have far reaching implications based on uncertain information. The use of terms and concepts such as the ‘precautionary principle’ and ‘least-regret options’ in adaptation discourse is a reflection of the accepted degree of uncertainty associated with climate science.

In order to overcome uncertainty, policy makers must both seek to reduce uncertainty by supporting efforts to improve capacity in data collection, research, modelling and simulation; and they must manage uncertainty that is intrinsic to climate projections by integrating it into decision making.

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2.2. Environmental risk

Due to its geographical location and characteristics, South Africa experiences an unusually wide range of weather conditions and a high degree of natural climate variability. Climate change is reflected in long term changes to the trends in averages for climate variables such as surface temperature and annual rainfall.

Climate change refers to changes in the long-term average of weather conditions. There is a growing body of evidence that climate change is also linked to increases in the variability of weather, including an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events and extreme climate events. This variability represents an immediate challenge in relation to disaster risk management.

Extreme weather events refer to extremes in atmospheric conditions such as temperature, rainfall and wind experienced over a day or a few weeks and may have disastrous consequences for human settlements. Extreme climate events are an accumulation of extreme weather events over a period of years or decades, such as anincrease in multi-year droughts. Collectively, extreme weather and extreme climate events are referred to as climate extremes.

Climate extremes can have cumulative impacts. For instance, a combination of below average rainfall and above average temperature can result in an elevated risk of veld-fires. South African rural human settlements are at particular risk from climate extremes such as floods or droughts due to a variety of social vulnerabilities, such as poor infrastructure and services. An example of this is the difficulty in providing relief services to dispersed settlements where access by road is poor.

2.2.1. Hazard Exposure

Hazard exposure can be understood as the extent to which changes in atmospheric conditions due to climate change are experienced in a particular location. These changes include average increases in temperature over time, increases in the frequency and intensity of storms, and changes in precipitation patterns, and seal level rise.

Hazard exposure can result in both gradual impacts such as declines in crop yields over many years or sudden impacts resulting from an increased exposure to extreme weather events such as floods, droughts and storms.

Hazard exposure is not experienced the same way everywhere. Sea level rise obviously has no direct impact on inland rural communities, but is relevant to coastal rural human settlements where assets may be vulnerable to beach erosion caused by storm surges. Key determinants of hazard exposure and the impacts with which they are associated are discussed below.

Changes in Temperature

In the future the temperature for South Africa, as for the rest of Africa and much of the world, is expected to rise. The extent of increase is uncertain and dependant on, amongst other factors, the effectiveness of international efforts to curb the emissions of greenhouse gas responsible for human-induced climate change. Based on current projections, the average temperature increase for South Africa is expected to be between 2 and 6 degrees Celsius by the end of the century, although this increase will not be uniform across the country.Due to the moderating influence of the ocean, temperature is likely to increase less over the coastal regions than the interior. Temperature maximums will however, increase and new record temperatures can be expected.

Table 1: Potential impacts of projected temperature increases

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Temperature change Impact

Increased number of warm and very hot days and increased maximum daily temperatures

Increased evaporation impacting on the availability of surface water

Soil degradation due to increased acidity, nutrient depletion, declining microbiological diversity, lower water retention and increased runoff.

Positive or negative impacts on crops and growing season length depending on local topography, precipitation and crop types. Some crops, particularly deciduous fruits, require a chill factor during winter to be productive.

Increased incidence of heat waves and associated risks for human and livestock health from heat stress, particularly for the very old and young, and those already suffering from illness.

Increase in the concentration and range of pests and pathogens that comprise human and livestock disease vectors, such as malaria and ticks.

Increased risk of wild fires and associated damage to crops, property and infrastructure.

Changes in Precipitation Patterns

Although South Africa is regarded as semi-arid, the country experiences marked regional differences in rainfall patterns in terms of the timing, intensity and quantity of rainfall and these differences are projected to increase in the near and in the long term:

The west of the country is drier than the east. Areas which border Namibia (the Richtersveld) may only receive less than 50 mm of annual rainfall while the mountains of the south west Cape can receive more than 600 mm of rainfall. (Palmer & Ainslee 2013).

There are three major rainfall zones in South Africa: the winter rainfall region of the western, south western and southern Cape; the bimodal rainfall region of the Eastern Cape, and the summer rainfall region of the Highveld and KwaZulu Natal.

Downscaled climate change models suggest that in the near term (2021 – 2050) there is a likelihoodof increased drying and associated risk of drought in the western and north eastern parts of the country, becoming more pronounced in the long term (2071 – 2100). Climate models indicate a range of possible scenarios, and there is significant uncertainty as to whether the southern and eastern cape is likely to become wetter or drier. It is also possible that the direction of change (wetter or drier) may alter when comparing long term scenarios to near term scenarios.

Climate models suggest that there will be an overall increase in the annual variability of rainfall, and an increased risk of rainfall arriving in the form of intense precipitation events. An increase in the projected number of dry days for any particular region is not incompatible, therefore, with an increase in the projected number of consecutive wet days but rather indicates a future in which rainfall is more erratic.

Table 2:Potential impacts of projected changes in precipitation patterns

Change in precipitation patterns Potential Impacts

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Increased number of consecutive dry days

Decreases in runoff and stream flow and an increased risk of drought, affecting crop production, food security and rural livelihoods.

Reduced stream flow is a particular threat for rural communities that are directly dependant on surface water resources.

Loss of soil moisture affecting crops and increasing the risk of soil erosion due to wind.

Increased risk of veld-fires and resultant damage to property, grazing, and crops.

Increase in number of consecutive wet days and/or increase in extreme precipitation events

Increased risk of floods, with consequent risks of damage to crops, property and loss of life.

Water logging of soil affecting crops.

Increased risk from water borne diseases such as cholera.

Damage to bulk water infrastructure, irrigation systems and water reticulation.

Damage to property and crops from winds associated with violent storms.

Extreme precipitation events are often preceded by lightening, which is responsible for a significant number of fatalities in rural areas every year

Changes in the variability and timing of precipitation

Farmers rely on predictable rains for timing the planting of crops, and subsistence farmers practicing rain-fed agriculture are particularly at risk.

Increased variability and unpredictable timing of rainfall impacts directly on the management of catchments and bulk water infrastructure, threatening the availability of water.

Sea level rise, oceanic warming and ocean acidification

Sea level rise stems from both the thermal expansion of water and the melting of glaciers and land-based ice sheets at the poles. Currently most sea level rise is a result of warming sea-water, but it is expected that this will be out-stripped by melting in future. The current rate of sea-level rise shows some regional differences across the South African coastline, with the west coast rising 1.87 mm per year, the south coast by 1.47 mm per year and the east coast by about 2.74mm per year. The rate of sea level rise is very likely to increase in future, but there is a high degree of uncertainty over the time scales and extent of change.

The ocean reduces the impact of man-made GHG emissions by absorbing CO2, but this results in ocean acidification. This will be detrimental to many marine species, particularly those relying on calcification to develop skeletons or shells, such as molluscs, corals and plankton.

Increases in sea surface temperatures have already been observed in South African waters and are expected to continue. Increased temperatures in our coastal and estuarine waters impact on the ranges of marine and estuary species, and an increasing southwards penetration of tropical fish species has been observed.

While sea level rise and ocean acidification are incremental phenomena, sea-level rise can exacerbate the impact of coastal storm surges, threatening urban infrastructure that breaches or is close to current coastal setback lines.

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Table 3: Potential impacts of projected changes in oceanic systems

Changes in oceanic systems Potential Impacts

Sea level rise Salinisation of water sources provided by coastal aquifers on which some coastal communities depend

Damages to infrastructure and property located in coastal areas with a low elevation, aggravated by storm surges associated with extreme weather.

Oceanic warming Changes to the distribution and ranges of estuarine and marine species important to livelihoods in rural fishing communities.

Ocean acidification Impacts on the development and reproduction of estuarine and marine species important to livelihoods in rural fishing communities.

2.2.2. Sensitivity

Sensitivity refers to the reactions of ecological systems to exposure to climate change. For instance, a 2°C increase in temperature may affect the geographical extent of a particular ecosystem (such as savannah). Although ecological systems are complex, and their sensitivity to climate change is imperfectly understood, this is becoming an increasingly important focus of adaptation research.

Biodiversity

South Africa has a rich natural heritage of biodiversity. The IPCC 4th Assessment Report concluded that climate change will have, and is already having, significant impacts on biodiversity in terms of the distribution and incidence of species and therefore on the spatial extent of ecosystems.

Many indigenous species have intrinsic commercial value (such as rooibos), cultural value and medicinal value and biodiversity is an important aspect of the countries value proposition as a tourist destination. As a consequence, biodiversity contributes directly to rural livelihoods and the adaptive capacity of rural communities.

Examples of the impacts of climate change on ecosystems include:

Bush encroachment on grasslands due to elevated CO2 levels favouring woody plant species.

Changes in the composition of dominant plant and animal species as a result of differences in the sensitivity of species to increases in temperature, changes in rainfall, and frequency of veld-fires – these often favour pioneer species (weeds) and invasive aliens.

Studies of indigenous plant and animal species estimate that the area of land currently optimal for supporting the countries existing biomes could be reduced by between 38% and 55% by 2050 as a result of climate change. The most substantial losses are likely to be incurred in the western, central and northern regions of the country and include negative impacts on commercially significant species such as the rooibos plant.Changes to ecosystems as a result of climate change are initially most marked at the boundaries between different biomes.

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Invasive alien species

Invasion by alien plant species poses a significant threat to indigenous biodiversity and alien species consume scarce water resources leading to reduced runoff. The economic impact of alien plant and insect species on grazing potential and crop losses is estimated at approximately US$ 3.5 billion per year.

Climate change may expand the range and incidence of some invasive pathogens and pests. It is likely that woody alien plants will benefit from climate related bush encroachment, altering ecosystem functioning in relation to stream flow, nutrient cycling, fire regimes, and incidence and behaviour of animal species amongst others. These changes almost invariably negatively impact on the ability of ecosystems to deliver goods and services that are important to rural communities.

Land use and agriculture

Human activities resulting in land use changes as a result of increased human population densities and increases in land under cultivation or grazing have a significant influence on the resilience of the environment to climate change. Apart from increases in human population density being directly correlated with declines in biodiversity, land use changes contribute indirectly to carbon dioxide levels through loss of sequestration potential and directly through carbon emissions associated with agricultural production. Land use changes also affect stream flow characteristics, exacerbating the impact of climate extremes such as flooding and drought.

Unsound agricultural practices can amplify the impact of climate change on desertification and land degradation. South Africa has fragile soils and large areas of the country are susceptible to soil erosion as a consequence of semi arid climate conditions, high rainfall intensity, and limited or degraded land cover.High sediment loads in stream flow as a result of soil erosion threaten the storage capacity and lifespan of water infrastructure such as dams and irrigation systems. This can have negative impacts on the quality and quantity of water available to rural communities.

At the same time, agriculture is of great importance for the climate resilience of the country in general and rural human settlements in particular as a source of employment, livelihoods, and food security and as a sector is particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The impacts of climate change on agriculture are direct and specific to particular crops and agricultural techniques.

Projected changes in the variability of rainfall and in terms of long term trends for its timing, duration, and intensity are of great significance to farmers, with subsistence farmers relying on rain-fed agriculture at particular risk. Modelling of rainfall seasonality indicates that the timing of rain in the summer rainfall regions, which tends to fall later towards the west, will in general be delayed as a result of climate change. There is considerable uncertainty about the modelling on rainfall at the boundaries between the summer and winter rainfall regions, and a heightened risk of increased variability in these areas, implying both very wet and very dry periods.

2.2.3. Climate disasters

Climate disasters are the result of the disruptive physical impact or environmental effects of extreme weather events on socially vulnerable communities. Increases in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events constitute an immediate and damaging impact of climate change that is already resulting in significant economic losses.

The level of environmental risk and social vulnerability of rural human settlements varies in relation to the specific nature of the climate related events to which they are exposed. Climate related

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events which can assume disastrous proportions and are of particular relevance to South African rural human settlements include drought, storms and flooding, and veld fires.

Climate related disasters can have either a sudden impact, as in the case of flash floods, or can have a more gradual onset that is the result of an incremental accumulation of environmental impacts, as is often the case with drought.

Drought

Droughts are defined in South Africa as a season’s rainfall of 70% less than normal, and are considered progressive or ‘slow onset’ disasters that are usually widespread rather than localised. Droughts caused damage estimated at R1 150 million between 2000 and 2009 in South Africa’s Second National Communication to the IPCC.

Drought should be thought of not only as a meteorological phenomenon relating to rainfall but also as a hydrological phenomenon reflected in changes to stream flow which is sensitive to factors such as evaporation rates, groundwater availability and recharge rates, geology, soil characteristics and land cover. Even when a meteorological drought is technically broken as a result of rainfall, it is possible for the amount of rainfall to have been insufficient to break a hydrological drought.

Floods and storms

Historical data indicates that floods are responsible for a greater number of human fatalities and cause greater damage to assets than droughts, and this is likely to be the case in the future as well. In South Africa between 2000 and 2009 floods, associated with high and often concentrated rainfall events, have caused damage estimated at R4 700 million, and have resulted in 140 deaths.

Although floods typically have a sudden impact, they can also have a gradual onset resulting from an accumulation of rainfall over several days or weeks. In these cases, flooding is typically preceded by water logging, in which soil becomes saturated and is unable to absorb additional rainfall. Water logging can cause extensive crop losses and the sensitivity of particular locations is determined by soil types and depth, as well as the geological sub-strata. Water logging is not typically a problem in the arid Northern Cape, but can be a problem in the eastern third of the country.

Key factors in determining the sensitivity of particular areas to flooding include slope, soil types, and land cover, as well as the presence of bulk water infrastructure such as dams capable of accumulating stream flow. Human settlements and infrastructure tend to significantly increase the runoff rate due to reductions in vegetative land cover and degradation of wetlands.

Storms are sudden events most commonly associated with severe thunderstorms and cold fronts.Storms are often associated with heavy precipitation, high winds, and flash floods, resulting in coastal and landslide damage. Each component has the ability to cause extensive damage.

Veld fires

Veld fires are a natural phenomenon in many of South Africa’s ecosystems, but a higher frequency of veld fires disrupts natural plant cycles, exposes soil to erosion and degrades ecosystems. Veld fires also can cause damage to human settlements and deaths, and are particularly damaging to the plantation forest industry. During the 2008 – 2009 period, wildfires caused damage estimated at R1,750 million, and 34 deaths.

Climate change is expected to result in an increased number of consecutive dry days and an increase in annual average temperatures. These climate changes, coupled with land use changes such as

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afforestation due to commercial plantations and the presence of invasive alien species, are associated with an increased in the incidence and destructive impact of veld fires.

2.3. Social vulnerability and adaptive capacity

As has been noted in Section 1.2, the concept of “rural human settlements” includes a wide range of settlement types, from small towns that are strongly linked to rural agricultural economies, to densely populated rural areas in which agriculture is of very little economic significance and only makes a marginal contribution to subsistence requirements. These different human settlement typologies experience vulnerability to climate change in different ways. The previous section looked at environmental risks that can be spatially differentiated to determine the exposure of particular communities to climate change, but adaptation planning also needs to respond to the social determinants of vulnerability.

Adaptive capacity refers to the ability of people to make the required changes that will enable them to adjust to a changing climate. Adaptive capacity is therefore defined by the resources, infrastructure and services available to people to respond to the risks of climate change. Further, adaptive capacity is defined by how people will experience hazard exposure; therefore it reflects the multiple stressors which people experience such as poverty, ill-health or unemployment. Adaptive capacity is inversely related to social vulnerability – a community with high adaptive capacity will have low levels of social vulnerability to climate change and vice versa.

The Climate Change Risk and Vulnerability Assessment that accompanies this plan includes spatial maps of key indicators of social vulnerability and adaptive capacity. This section of the plan summarises the approach to understanding and mapping the social determinants of vulnerability to climate change.

2.3.1. Infrastructure and Services

From the perspective of spatial development, one of the characteristics of urbanisation is that the concentration of people in densely populated urban environments reduces the costs of providing bulk utilities such water and sanitation, electricity, and waste management services. Similarly, infrastructure and related services such as roads, public transport, housing, and telecommunications can be more cost effectively delivered in urban environments than in rural environments. Whilst the sustainability of urban environments is ultimately dependent on the integrity of ecosystem services, access to these services and infrastructure greatly reduces the direct dependence of urban people on natural resources and their exposure to environmental risks associated with climate change.

Since the advent of democracy, significant progress has been made in extending access to basic services, as reported by StatsSA in the outcomes from national surveys and the census:

More households are using electricity for lighting (85% in 2011 compared to70% in 2001), and fewer households are using paraffin, wood or coal for cooking or heating.

In the last ten years, at the same time as the population grew by 7 million:

o Thenumber of people without access to water fell from 16% to 9%.

o The number of peoplewithout access to sanitation fell from 14% to 5%.

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The number of households who get a weekly waste service has increased from 52% in 1996 to 62% in 2011. At the same time the number of households who don’t have any waste service at all has dropped from 10% to 5%.

Policy directives and fiscal provisions have been made to support the extension of free basic services to indigent households

At the same time, progress in the delivery of basic services has been both a cause and effect of the long term trend to urbanisation experienced in South Africa and the rest of the world. In the context of scarce resources, government has inevitably concentrated its efforts where they can be most cost-effectively expended.

Basic Services

One of the consequences of the logistical difficulties associated with the rollout of basic services to rural areas is that a disproportionate amount of the backlog in access to services, and particularly in the extension of free basic services, is located in rural areas:

Rural households are much less likely to have access to a supply of piped water close to their dwellings. Not only does this result in household activities being centred on the collection of water (which is often a strenuous and time-consuming task), but it also means that rural households may have to rely on unclean water sources that are a vector for diseases such as cholera and may be much more vulnerable to the impact of climate change on water availability than urban households. The lack of access to bulk waste infrastructure and irrigation schemes in some rural areas may also constrain the opportunities for both subsistence and commercial agriculture in the context of climate-related environmental risks to food security and rural livelihoods.

Rural communities are much less likely to have access to hygienic sanitation than urban households. Improved sanitation is vital in protecting the health of communities and safeguarding communities from infectious diseases of which the incidence will increase as a consequence of climate change.

The backlog in electrification is concentrated in rural areas. As a result, many rural households rely on other sources of energy such as wood, gas, dung, or paraffin. A reliable source of energy within dwellings is an important component of well-being and contributes to rural livelihoods by making income diversification more possible. Access to energy within the household for lighting, cooking and heating is especially beneficial for women as they are most often tasked with the unpaid work of sourcing energy, which detracts from other activities such as food production. Moreover, households which are reliant on wood as a primary energy source may contribute to deforestation and land degradation.

Although the removal of solid waste from close proximity to human dwellings is a mandated function of local municipalities, it is usually prohibitively expensive to extend the same level of service enjoyed by urban households to rural households, and those households with no access to waste removal services at all are overwhelmingly concentrated in rural areas. Not only is the dumping of solid waste a climate change hazard because of the release of methane; but the build-up of waste near human settlements also presents serious threats to human health and may present a fire risk.

Infrastructure

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The environmental risks presented by climate change have significant implications for infrastructure such as housing, clinics, schools, roads and telecommunications, particularly as a consequence of shocks and stresses associated with extreme events such as floods, storms and droughts.These risks need to inform the design and geo-spatial positioning of infrastructure.

Buildings that are deemed resilient may have some of the following features: flood and lightning protection, efficient water systems for drought protection, cool spaces, heat reflective surfaces, damp proofing and appropriate north/south orientation. Furthermore buildings should be strategically placed to avoid flood plains, green spaces and coastal setback lines.

For similar reasons to those already identified in relation to basic services, government low-cost housing programmes and other forms infrastructural upgrades tend to take place within the urban edge, or constitute an expansion of the urban edge. As a consequence, rural human settlements outside the urban edge may be particularly vulnerable:

There is a relative lack of housing programmes that specifically target people living in rural areas. Of the 1,139,916 households living in traditional housing as reported in Census 2011, the overwhelming majority live in rural areas (1,047,797). While traditional housing is not necessarily less resilient than a poorly built low cost housing, these houses are less likely to have access to basic services and it may be undesirable or difficult to safely provide such services in the conventional manner.

As of 2011, approximately 296,357 households in rural areas (defined as tribal/traditional areas or farms in Census 2011) lived in informal housing, or shacks. While informal settlements are not specifically a rural problem, informal settlements often develop on marginalized land that may be particularly exposed to, for instance, flooding. Informal housing isconstructed with inferior building materials that offer little protection against the environmental risks associated with climate change. In many cases, informal housing presents significant health risks for their inhabitants, such as a lack of air circulation inside the dwelling.

Government spending on roads and public transport tends to focus on the routes connecting major urban centres. As a consequence, many rural settlements can only be accessed by dirt roads or even footpaths. These roads are particularly vulnerable to degradation during rains, which can compound the difficulties associated with providing disaster relief services to remote rural communities. Furthermore, the difficulty and expense in accessing urban markets experienced by remote rural communities constrains rural livelihoods and income diversification opportunities.

Public infrastructure such as schools and health clinics in rural areas tend to be less accessible, more poorly equipped and less structurally resilient than in urban areas. They are also much more likely to lack basic services such as electricity, water and sanitation – greatly constraining their functionality.

2.3.2. Health

As has already been noted, inadequate access to basic services and infrastructure can increase exposure to health risks associated with climate change. Poor health, in itself, is a source of vulnerability that exacerbates the impact of climate change on individuals by making by making them more vulnerable to heat stress or diseases and pathogens,such as cholera and malaria, with vectors influenced by climate change.

Population age profile

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Census data shows that 28.4% of the population of South Africa is between the ages of 0 and 14 years and 21% of the population is between the ages of 15 and 24 years, rendering the population of South Africa extremely young. The median age of the South African population is 25 years (Indexmundi 2013).

Many rural areas are populated by high numbers of children and the elderly due to working age people migrating to urban areas to find employment or further education, as well as the impact of HIV / AIDS epidemic, which has particularly affected economically active people. This is particularly true of the former homelands, which tend to have a lower than proportion of women, children and the elderly. Not only are the elderly and children, particularly infants, constitutionally more vulnerable to the effects malnutrition and extremes in temperature, but they are less likely to be economically active, resulting in higher rates of poverty in communities whose demographics are distorted towards the young and elderly. The links between poverty and ill-health have been well established, and the role of poverty as a factor in discussed later in the context of economic vulnerability.

Malnutrition in children

One of the most socially impactful links between poverty and ill-health is that of childhood malnutrition, which can results in physical stunting and intellectual impairment. Due to the high rates of poverty in many of South Africa’s rural areas, there is also anincreased incidence of childhood malnutrition. This is particularly the case in the rural areas of the Eastern Cape and the Northern Cape, which experience the highest levels of poverty in the country and the highest rates of childhood malnutrition. Incidence of childhood malnutrition is also positively correlated with social inequality, and is disproportionately experienced by the poorest black and coloured communities.1

Communities with high levels of malnutrition are particularly vulnerable to the impact of climate change on food security, both in terms of its impact on households with some reliance on subsistence agriculture, and its impact on food prices in the context of rural poverty.

Access to primary health care

South Africa is currently aiming for a target of 3.5 PHC visits per person per year. The Primary Health Care Utilization rate provides an indication of areas in which people have or do not have regular and easy access to medical care from medical facilities and therefore serves as an indication of the amount and location of people that are more vulnerable to climate change because of inadequate health services.

In rural areas, medical facilities are often far apart and ill-equipped. Since climate change is likely bring new environmental stressors to bear upon the health of communities such as heat stress, waterborne diseases and increased malnutrition, access to regular and quality medical care will enhances the adaptive capacity of rural settlements.

2.3.3. Economic vulnerability

The socio-economic status of households and profile of communities is a key driver of vulnerability to climate change. One of the most constructive ways of determining local vulnerability of climate

1Eyob Zere, Diane McIntyre. 2003. Inequities in under-five child malnutrition in South Africa. Int J Equity Health. 2003; 2: 7. Published online 2003 September 11. doi: 10.1186/1475-9276-2-7

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change for rural people is by analysing the sensitivity of rural livelihoods to climate-related environmental risks. A ‘livelihood’ is considered to consist of the assets, activities and entitlements that enable people to make a living. Rural livelihoods tend to be much more dependent on natural resources and therefore more directly vulnerable to climate change than is the case in urban environments. Much of the rural economy is linked to agriculture, for instance, with subsistence farming forming an important component of many rural livelihoods.

Employment and income

Employment is very often a key component of livelihoods in that it provides income and access to social networks and communication, and is often a determinant of the ability to take out and repay loans. There has been a steady increase in rural unemployment in the past decade, to the point at which it had reached an estimated level of 52% in 2012, as reported in a briefing to Parliament's public service and administration portfolio committeeby the Director General of the Performance Monitoring and Evaluation Department. This is well above the national average and has contributed to a situation in which the levels of household incomeare substantially lower in rural communities than in the metropoles.

Poverty, with lack of accumulated wealth, inadequate access to basic services and unreliable and insufficient income being important determinants of poverty, affects the ability of rural households to respond to environmental stresses and shocks. For instance, poor people spend proportionately more of their income on food and may depend on subsistence agriculture to supplement their nutritional requirements. In the absence of accumulated wealth, increases in food prices or loss of household crops due to flooding or drought can result in a nutritional crisis.Similarly, it is may be difficult for poor households to replace assets lost due to extreme weather events. Furthermore, in the absence of savings and the ability to take out loans, it may be difficult for poor households to make financial investments required to adjust to changing climate conditions – such as investments in climate-resilient crops and agricultural techniques.

Land tenureand land use

Land tenure in rural areas tend to be less secure than in urban environments, and as a result inhibits investment of capital in rural development. This in turn affects land use regimes, and has resulted in a large amount of underutilisation and inefficient use of land. The two main sources of insecurity are the land restitution process and the status of land under traditional authorities:

Currently, there is neither a legislative mechanism nor a coherent resourcing strategy to ensure that environmental concerns, including the implications of climate change, are taking into consideration during or after the process of deciding on land claims.

The uncertain status of individual land ownership in “tribal” lands and the legislative challenges around communal land ownership makes it difficult to leverage finance against these properties.

At the same time, customary arrangements around land use, which may involve overlapping but distinct rights to the different natural resources attached to a particular piece of land being held by a variety of different people, may also in some cases provide a basis for innovative adaptive responses that promote access to land by poor rural people who would struggle to secure such access in an open property market.

Gender

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Gender inequalities exist in South Africa and these inequalities are often more pronounced in rural areas. In South Africa women already experience multiple stressors; such as unpaid and lowly paid work, child rearing, and insufficient access to basic services. Further it may be challenging for women to gain access to land under the governance of traditional leadership. Climate change is expected to make already existing development challenges worse; specifically for female headed households.

2.3.4. Mapping social vulnerability

In general, it is possible to say with a high level of confidence that rural human settlements are particularly vulnerable to climate change as a result of their elevated exposure to environmental risks, and the social vulnerabilities that exist as a result of the urban focus of service delivery and the socio-economic vulnerability of a large proportion of rural households. On its own, this warrants national government redirecting national resources to supporting climate change adaptation in rural communities. At the same time, this should support the many linkages and dependencies that exist between urban and rural communities that are vital to the long term sustainability of our cities.

The challenge lies in determining how and where national resources to support adaptation should be allocated. A common theme of the preceding analysis has been the large degree of differentiation that exists between rural communities. Not all rural communities experience the same vulnerabilities to climate change, nor can all rural communities be considered equally vulnerable. Furthermore, within particular communities, not all households experience the same level or types of vulnerability.

Figure 3, drawn from the Climate Change Risk and Vulnerability for Rural Human Settlements, provides an overview of the spatial distribution of social vulnerability to climate change, based on a composite mapping of indicators relating to the dimensions of social vulnerability discussed in the preceding analysis.

Figure 3: Composite mapping of social vulnerability indicators

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What Figure 3cannot reflect, are the environmental risks, social conditions and human potential that pertain for particular rural communities. Nor does it reflect the economic significance of the environmental risks attached to climate change. For instance, while social vulnerability appears relative low in the Western Cape, the impact of climate change on deciduous fruit and wine farming could have devastating economic consequences for the rural economy of the province.

For this reason, support for local and community-level adaptation planning, leveraging community experiences and indigenous knowledge as well as detailed studies of downscaled climate projections and environmental sensitivity provided by climate scientists, must form a central part of the national adaptation response for rural human settlements.

3. The need for adaptation

Even if climate change mitigation activities are implemented, science indicates that carbon dioxide concentration will continue to rise for some time into the future, temperatures will continue to rise and that the sea level will also continue to rise. While mitigation efforts are crucial to limiting the extent of these changes, a certain amount of change is now inevitable and failure to plan for these changes could have catastrophic effects for societies the world over. The following quote by Smith and Lenhart (1996) encapsulates the need for climate change adaptation and specifically within Africa.

“Africa is one of the regions of the world potentially most vulnerable to climate change. Warming of the globe due to increased atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases appears to be inevitable. Therefore, it is imperative that policy makers in regions such as Africa begin to consider what measures they should take to adapt to the potential consequences of climate change.”

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In the absence of strategies to improve to develop climate resilience, climate change threatens the sustainable development goals of the country, and particularly the goal expressed in presidential outcome 7 of: “Vibrant, equitable and sustainable rural communities with food security for all”.

The vulnerability to climate change of any particular rural human settlement is determined by the degree to which it is exposed to the environmental risks caused by climate stresses and shocks and this susceptibility is affected by the ability of individuals within the affected community to cope, recover and adapt:

Coping involves the ability to engage in practises and access resources in order to live with the impacts of climate change. For instance, buying food to replace subsistence crops destroyed in a flood is a coping strategy.

Recovery involves the ability to restore or replace that which was lost or damaged as a result of climate change. For instance, replanting crops after a flood is a recovery strategy.

Adaptation involves making changes that lowers susceptibility to harm from the impacts of climate change. For instance, rehabilitating a wetland to reduce the impact of future floods on nearby land under cultivation is an adaptation strategy.

Improving the resilience of rural human settlements to the stresses and shocks associated with climate change therefore involves more than simply improving their ability to “bounce back” in the sense of returning to a previous state in response to a climate event. It also involves making progressive changes to the base status and capacities of human settlements that reduce their susceptibility to the environmental risks associated with climate change.

3.1. The links between adaptation and development

In 2008 the Department of Environmental Affairs published the National Framework for Sustainable Development. The Framework spells out a clear vision for sustainable development in South Africa:

“South Africa aspires to be a sustainable, economically prosperous and self-reliant nation state that safeguards its democracy by meeting the fundamental human needs of its people, by managing its limited ecological resources responsibly for current and future generations, and by advancing efficient and effective integrated planning and governance through national, regional and global collaboration.”

The national vision is underpinned by a set of principles that guide all decisions and actions taken to achieve the vision. These principles underscore a cyclical and systems approach to achieving sustainable development and are as follows:

Efficient and sustainable use of natural resources

Socio-economic systems are embedded within, and dependent upon, eco-systems

Basic human needs must be met to ensure resources necessary for long-term survival are not destroyed for short term gain.

The sustainable livelihoods approach to rural development is based around the concept of capital assets (human, physical, financial, natural and social assets) upon which people draw for their livelihoods. These assets are a precondition and complement to social and economic development. Within the sustainable livelihoods approach poverty is seen as more than income poverty or a lack of

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wealth, and rather as a condition of insecurity or vulnerability to shocks and stresses. Sustainable livelihood is a way of living that is resilient to shocks and stresses and does not adversely affect the environment for present and future generations. Poverty is therefore seen as a dynamic rather than static condition, and the poor move in and out of relative poverty as they respond to the opportunities, shocks and stresses that they experience.

The five assets classes that are used in sustainable livelihoods approach are:

Natural, including natural resource stocks, environmental sustainability, energy efficiency

Social resources (networks of support, membership of groups, relationships of family and trust)

Physical, including shelter, basic infrastructure, transport, power supply and means of production

Human capital, including good health, skills and knowledge

Financial resources, such as savings, availability of affordable credit, remittances and pensions

There is a strong alignment between the sustainable livelihoods approach to development outlined above, and the requirements for climate change adaptation planning. Adaptation planning should therefore focus on strengthening the resilience of the assets upon which rural livelihoods depend.

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3.2. Adaptation responses

Drawing on the risk and vulnerability assessment, the table below provides a list of potential adaptation responses that should be considered during local adaptation planning processes based on relevance as determined by local assessments of risks, vulnerability and adaptive capacity.

Table 4: Adaptation Responses

Climate change environmental risks Drivers of Rural Social Vulnerability Potential Climate Change Adaptation Responses

Decreased availability of surface water:

Increased temperatures leading to higher evaporation rates

Reduction in annual precipitation and seasonal droughts

Alien infestation

Impacts on runoff from human settlements and agriculture

Lack of access to reticulated water supply and dependence on open water sources such as rivers, ponds, and dams for drinking and sanitation.

Dependence on open water sources for irrigation agriculture.

Conflicts between agriculture and rural settlements for access to water

Strengthen water resource planning and infrastructure

Rainwater harvesting

Alien-clearing programmes

Sustainable use of groundwater resources

Environmentally-friendly and socially acceptable sanitation solutions

Catchment management informed by modelling of climate vulnerability

Water-wise crop cultivation and irrigation practices e.g. drip irrigation

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Reduced agricultural yields

Changes in the timing, duration and intensity of rainfall, drought, flooding and waterlogging

Increased surface temperatures and loss of chill units, heat waves

Veld fires

Soil degradation and erosion

Increase in alien infestations and agricultural pests and pathogens

Dependence on agriculture for employment and wealth creation

Subsistence farming and dependence on small-scale agriculture for food security

Vulnerability to food price increases due to poverty

Lack of access to capital for investment in agriculture due to insecure tenure

Lack of access to agriculturally productive land

Agricultural extension programmes to promote climate-sensitive agriculture (water and soil conservation, crop selection)

Research and innovation in crops and livestock farming

Composting of organic waste linked to community food gardens and commercial food production

Technical and financial support to small-scale and subsistence farmers, agricultural co-operatives and improved access to markets

Communications strategy and early warning systems for food producers (commercial and subsistence)

Audit of indigenous agricultural knowledge and traditional agricultural practices, to build on existing climate resilient capabilities

National standards for organic produce to promote organic farming

Development to support income diversification

Land use management, land reform and reform of legislative framework for communal lands informed by modelling of climate change vulnerability

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Loss of Biodiversity

Changes to temperature and precipitation patterns

Changes to the natural fire regime

Bush encroachment and alien species infestation

Land degradation due to population pressure and over-grazing

Direct dependence on natural resources and eco-system services for food, water, energy, shelter, medicines due to culture, poverty and lack of access to basic services.

Pollution and inadequate waste management services.

Dependence on terrestrial and aquatic species for food security, employment and wealth creation

Dependence on intact ecosystems for tourism

Vulnerability to climate extremes that are mitigated by intact eco-systems e.g. floods

Development of the “wild-life economy” – tourism, sustainable hunting, game farming, payment for eco-system services, carbon sequestration

Alien clearing programmes and bio-energy recovery projects

Fire-risk management programmes

Land rehabilitation programmes – working for wetlands, grasslands etc

Estuarine, marine and coastal management programmes

Support to small-scale fisheries

Expansion of protected areas programme

Financing of biodiversity through environmental offset requirements for development

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Environmental Health Risks

Water quality and availability

Heat waves

Extreme weather events

Food security

Vector borne diseases, malaria, cholera

Lack of access to appropriate health services, waste management services and infrastructure, electricity, transport and communications infrastructure

Lack of access to reticulated water services and hot water, poorly maintained or inadequately specified bulk water infrastructure and treatment facilities

Inadequate housing and sanitation infrastructure

Prevalence of HIV, tuberculosis, malnutrition

Poverty and unemployment

Age – infants and the elderly vulnerable to heat stress

Improved delivery of services to rural human settlements:

Improved and more accessible primary health care facilities

HIV treatment and prevention programmes

Job creation through upgrades and maintenance of rural roads

Renewable energy electrification and Internet access in remote rural clinics


Climate resilient rural housing programme including solar water heaters and off-grid/mini grid electrification

School feeding programmes and sanitation infrastructure, planting of trees for shelter

Rural waste management strategies focusing on challenges facing rural communities

Technological innovation and research in service delivery to rural communities, focusing on appropriate green technologies

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Extreme weather events

Floods, storms and coastal storm surges

Droughts

Lightening

Heat waves

Veld fires

Inadequate disaster preparedness and management

Lack of access to appropriate health services, waste management services and infrastructure, electricity, transport and communications infrastructure

Lack of access to reticulated water services and hot water, poorly maintained or inadequately specified bulk water infrastructure and treatment facilities

Inadequate housing and sanitation infrastructure

Vulnerable demographic profiles in terms of age, income, employment and health status

Rural Disaster Relief Fund

Rural Disaster Management Strategies for climate-related disasters

Local risk and vulnerability assessments to inform disaster risk management plans and spatial development plans in terms of zoning

Improved delivery of service to rural communities (see adaptation responses for environmental health risks)

Communications and awareness strategy, including early warning systems

Rehabilitation of ecosystems such as wetlands that provide protection against extreme weather events, working for fire programme

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4. Strategic Framework

The strategic framework for the climate change adaptation plan for rural human settlements outlines:

The principles that inform adaptation planning and the allocation of resources in terms of this plan – both in terms of this national plan, as well as local planning processes informed by this plan.

The goals and objectives of the climate change adaptation plan.

A logical framework for the implementation of the adaptation plan.

4.1. Guiding principles

The climate change adaptation strategy for rural human settlements is guided by the planning principles outlined in the National Development Plan; and in particular that of spatial resilience, the guiding principles for an equitable transition to an environmentally sustainable low carbon economy, and the vision of an inclusive rural economy and sustainable human settlements. It is also guided by the principles of the National Strategy for Sustainable Development.

The strategy further provides a set of guiding principles for delivery ofpresidential outcome 7: “Vibrant, equitable and sustainable rural communities and food security for all” in the context of the needfor rural human settlements to adapt to climate change. These guiding principles are explained below.

4.1.1. Climate change related vulnerability must be understood in the local context

Climate change risks and vulnerabilities are unique to specific locations and to specific groups of people:

The positioning of communities in relation to local topographical features such as mountains, forests, or rivers can significantly affect their exposure to climate change related threats. Communities on either side of a mountain range, for instance, may experience very different rainfall patterns despite their geographical proximity to one another.

Similarly communities, and even households within a community, may experience very different levels of vulnerability. The levels of vulnerability, motives and interests in relation to adaptation responses of farm workers and owners within the same rural community may be different. Similarly, communities within the same municipality may rely on different livelihood strategies and have very different access to resources and political representation.

Because it is the combination of the different climate related risks and unique social vulnerabilities which people face that determine their ability to adapt to climate change, climate change risk and vulnerability assessments and adaptation planning should be performed in the interests of specific communities and groups of people and should take place at the most localized level possible.

4.1.2. Adaptation planning must be shaped by local participation

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As with other development initiatives, adaptation interventions where communities are not involved in deciding the outcomes of their own development futures and where their real needs are not catered for are likely to fail. Adaptation responses should be premised on placing the community at the heart of the development process. Community-driven adaptation responses need to:

place control and resources in the hands of the community

view rural people themselves as assets and partners in development

build on existing institutions.

Communities understand their own risks best and therefore should be at the forefront in determining climate change adaptation options. While the concept of climate change adaptation may be new, the practice is not. Climate varies on inter-annual, inter-decadal and longer timescales, and rural communities have always had to adapt to changes in the climate system in order to survive. Rural communities in South Africa have experienced dramatic weather events and climate changes before. Community participation in assessments of risk and vulnerabilityand in the planning of adaptation responses makes it possible to leverage indigenous knowledge, experience and coping strategies that may otherwise not be accessible.

4.1.3. Adaptation must build on local capabilities

Climate change adaptation, should build on the resources, efforts and capabilities of local areas. Building on what is already in place will result in supporting communities in processes and systems that they themselves had already begun and maintain and will in the long term result in more sustainable outputs for communities and for national government.

The Sustainable Livelihoods Framework (SLF) provides a useful description of the assets communities can leverage for adaptation. Assets may consist of natural resources, abilities, knowledge, skills, and employment opportunities. But they also can include social, political and human dimensions, such as a sense of community, family and social networks. These assets enable income generating and wealth creating activities, for example using land for agricultural income and barter, or knowledge and creativity for the production of artistic goods. The assets of communities are further complemented by entitlements derived from legal or customary rights. Entitlements can include access to commonage for grazing, or the benefits of mutual care derived from an extended family arrangement, or collective arrangements for burial derived from burial societies.

4.1.4. Acknowledging climate justice

The National Climate Change Response White Paper (NCCR) outlines key principles that serve to frame the concept of climate justice:

Equity – ensuring a fair allocation of effort, cost and benefits in the context of the need to address disproportionate vulnerabilities, responsibilities, capabilities, disparities and inequalities.

Special needs and circumstances – considering the special needs and circumstances of localities and people that are particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change, including vulnerable groups such as women, and especially poor and/or rural women; children, especially infants and child headed families; the aged; the sick; and the physically challenged.

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Uplifting the poor and vulnerable – climate change policies and measures should address the needs of the poor and vulnerable and ensure human dignity, whilst endeavouring to attain environmental, social and economic sustainability

The Polluter Pays Principle – those responsible for harming the environment paying the costs of remedying pollution and environmental degradation and supporting any consequent adaptive response that may be required.

It is widely acknowledged that the rural poor have contributed least to the problem of climate change, but are most vulnerable to its effects. In keeping with the principles outlined in the NCCR, and bearing in mind the fact that government resources are limited, the focus of this adaptation plan must be on the rural poor. At the same time, it is recognised that the sustainability of the commercial agricultural sector in the face of the environmental risks posed by climate change is directly relevant to rural livelihoods.

4.1.5. Evidence based planning

The adaptation planning for rural human settlements must be based on scientific evidence. In allocating scarce resources to invest in rural infrastructure and development, government is forced to make decisions that may have long terms consequences in local contexts. It is therefore important that these decisions are informed by the best available historical data on weather and climate trends, and scientifically credible extrapolation of these trends into the future that takes into account the impacts of climate change, and that this information can be meaningfully downscaled and communicated at the level needed to inform local adaptation planning. Similarly, local adaptation planning also needs to be informed by the best available data on social demographics and economic activity and opportunities. In many cases, this means engaging with local communities themselves.

There are intrinsic uncertainties associated with climate change that need to inform planning. On the one hand, uncertainty exists about the extent of future change and, in some areas, even the direction. On the other hand, there is a high level of confidence in the scientific community that climate change will result in increased variability and therefore an increase in the incidence and severity of extreme weather events.

The implication of this is that rural adaptation planning needs to be informed by the following:

Ongoing research into climate change and its social impacts, which should include direct engagement with rural communities.

Investments in infrastructure and services should cater for uncertainty and variability by building resilience to a wide range of environmental risks.

Adaptation responses should focus first on delivering outcomes that are known to be intrinsically beneficial to rural communities, and which we should be doing anyway, such as improving access to healthcare, providing access to basic services and diversifying rural incomes.

4.2. Goals and objectives

The overarching goal of the adaptation plan is to:

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Create sustainable livelihoods that are resilient to the shocks and stresses caused by climate change and do not adversely affect the environment for present and future generations.

The purpose of the adaptation plan is to provide a co-ordinated people-centred response to the risks and vulnerabilities posed by climate change that promotes the well-being of the population as a whole, and of households and vulnerable individuals and groups within it.The plan focuses on securing and enhancing rural livelihoods because the current reliance of many poor rural communities on government grants, while necessary in the short term, is neither financially sustainable in the long term, nor socially desirable. The central adaptive dimensions of the plan consist of:

1. Ensuring that the sensitivity to climate change of natural systems on which rural livelihoods depend is taken into account.

2. In so doing, developingnatural resources in a sustainable manner to maximise their contribution to rural livelihoods while preserving and protecting ecosystem services for current and future generations.

3. Supporting rural livelihoods and climate resilience in rural settlements by pursuing innovative, cost-effective and environmentally sustainable solutions for extending services to rural communities which are currently under-serviced.

The National Climate Change Adaptation Plan for Rural Human Settlements is intended to inform local adaptation planning and support interventions that respond to the climate change related risks and the social vulnerabilities experienced by particular rural communities.

The objectives that will be pursued to achieve this goal are described below. Central to these objectives is the assumption that effective climate change adaptation leverages local knowledge and resources, and builds local capabilities.

Objective 1: Support the development of community and local climate adaptation plans

As established in the guiding principles for the adaptation plan, climate change vulnerability is best understood in terms of the particular environmental risks and socio-economic conditions pertaining to particular rural human settlements, and adaptation responses need to be tailored to local needs and build on local capabilities.Participatory rural appraisal is an effective way of mobilising community resources to cope with climate change.While the national adaptation plan provides a menu of adaptation options and strategies, their application to particular rural human settlements needs to be determined through local adaptation planning processes in which rural communities are active participants. Furthermore, local adaptation planning can provide scope for incorporating local indigenous knowledge and innovation in adaptation responses in a manner in which the national plan cannot.

Local adaptation planning must be a cooperative project between local municipalities and district municipalities and the communities they serve; with related provincial and national government departments such as the Department of Human Settlements (DHS), Department of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (DAFF), Department of Water Affairs (DWA) and Department of Environmental Affairs (DEA) providing policy guidance and resources to support implementation.

The primary level of planning should be that of the community, and to ensure community adaptation plans are monitored and properly resourced, they must be included in IDP’s, Environmental Management Frameworks and Spatial Development Frameworks at the level of local and district municipalities. Local authorities may also choose to develop strategic plans for climate

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adaptation. At the provincial level, growth and development strategies and provincial spatial development frameworks must be explicitly informed by the climate change adaptation requirements for rural human settlements, as set out in existing community-based adaptation plans, this national plan, and subsequent guidance on rural adaptation that may be provided from the LTAS process and land reform processes, including revision of the legislative framework for communal lands.

To support this process, the DRDLR, in partnership with SARVA and the LTAS, willsupport a country-wide roll out of adaptation plans. The following technical support will be provided:

Provide guidelines, toolkits and financial support for participatory rural appraisals to incorporate traditional knowledge and existing coping strategies into community-based risk and vulnerability assessments and adaptation planning processes.

Provide communication tools to assist in communicating climate science to rural communities, including an online database of the latest climate science and social vulnerability data and appropriately tailored research products.

Provide guidelines at assists municipalities in incorporating climate change risk and vulnerability assessments and adaptation plans for rural human settlements into existing planning instruments, including Integrated Development Plans and Spatial Development frameworks

Training workshops with community organisations, traditional authorities, and local government officials and councillors from rural wards in relation to environmental risks associated with climate change and the implications for rural development and planning.

Objective 2: Build local adaptive capacity through supporting sustainable livelihoods

Poverty and a lack of economic opportunities are the most important source of vulnerability to climate change in rural communities. A lack of sufficient accumulated wealth makes it difficult for poor rural households to recover from and cope with the impact of climate-related disasters. A lack of adequate and reliable income makes it difficult for these households to accumulate savings and makes these households particularly vulnerable to increases in food insecurity and health impacts linked to climate change.

Diversifying income sources for poor rural households, many of whom depend on government grants and subsistence agriculture for survival, is necessary to reduce their risks and combat rural poverty. At the same time, health threats that particularly affect certain rural communities, such as HIV/AIDS, can have a significant impact on potentially economically productive adults and the strengthening of existing programmes to extend and improve health services to rural communities enhances their adaptive capabilities.

Initiatives to strengthen the adaptive capacity of rural communities through enhancing rural livelihoods must build and extend existing capabilities and assets in rural communities, which include natural resources, physical and financial resources, social and human resources. Agriculture is of particular importance to rural communities, both as a source of income and employment, and as a source of food security. At the same time, many rural communities are densely populated and/or located on land with limited agricultural potential, and strategies that promote income diversification are an essential component of securing rural livelihoods.

To build the climate resilience of rural communities the DRDLR will, in partnership with the Department of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries and other relevant government departments and

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agencies, as well as community organisations and non government organisations (NGOs) will pursue the following strategies to enhance rural livelihoods:

Technical and financial support for adaptation and resilience in agriculture and food production, targeting both commercial and subsistence farming, including climate communications and early warning systems for food producers and agricultural extension programmes to promote climate-sensitive agriculture.

Technical and financial support for initiatives to support poverty alleviation and income diversificationin rural households, including job creation through upgrades and maintenance of rural roads, support to small-scale fisheries and development of the “wild-life economy” – tourism, sustainable hunting, game farming, payment for eco-system services, and carbon sequestration.

Improve quality and access to healthcare facilities in rural communities, including ensuring rural penetration of HIV treatment and prevention programmes.

Objective 3: Support sustainable land management that promotes climate resilience

Sustainable land use management that takes into account the environmental risks posed by climate change is essential in order to improve land productivity and build climate resilience in rural communities. Apartheid patterns of spatial development continue to scar our landscapes, and have led to dense rural populations in the former homelands creating unsustainable pressures on land. While traditionally white-owned commercial agriculture has often not been undertaken in an environmentally or socially sustainable manner, job and productivity losses in the sector are a concern both in terms of the rural economy and food security. Land use management and land reform processes need to not only protect and enhance productivity and transformation in the agricultural sector, but also to build resilience to the environmental impacts of climate change and protect natural assets by reducing land degradation and soil erosion.

Land ownership provides rural households with an important asset that can be used to raise finance and diversify household income, and there is an urgent need to:

Clarify the legislative and policy framework for communal lands and land reform to ensure access to land for the rural poor as well as financial investment in rural development and economically effective, environmentally sustainable land use management.

There are context-specific environmental risks associated with climate change involving both managing the risks of shocks from extreme weather events such as floods and managing stresses from long term trends, particularly in relation to water availability, that need to be incorporated into land use planning at a local level by:

Ensuring effective spatial planning and enforcement of floodlines to protect communities from devastating impact of floods and other disasters

Protecting water resources for rural communities by ensuring the requirements for climate-sensitive sustainable catchment management informs land use decisions and practices.

Objective 4: Protect ecosystem services to rural communities

Ecosystems provide critical services to rural communities such as clean water, air, biodiversity and productive soils. Protecting ecosystems not only buildsthe resilience of rural communities to climate change, but is also essential to the sustainability of urban centres. Biodiversity offsets for

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development provide a potentially cost-effective way of promoting ecosystem protection and ensuring no net loss of biodiversity assets that can be used to fund eco-system based adaptation programmes that create and enhance rural livelihoods.

Expanding protected areas to include critical ecosystems in ways that do not compete with other land uses is an important strategy for securing ecosystem resilience and provide a range of opportunities for rural livelihoods linked to natural resource management. Natural resource management is an important aspect of climate change adaptation strategies and includes:

Responding to bush encroachment and alien infestation as a means of managing biodiversity, reducing fire risks, conserving grasslands and grazing potential, and improving surface water availability.

Protecting and rehabilitating wetlands to improve water quality, and reduce the impact of floods and droughts.

Protecting and conserving marine, coastal and estuarine habitats to ensure the integrity of commercially important species that are also important to the subsistence strategies of rural coastal communities.

Preserving and rehabilitating the carbon sequestration function of intact, functioning eco-systems to mitigate the impacts of human carbon emissions.

As such, there is a compelling case to be made for social investment in rural programmes that protect ecosystem services, including:

Strengthening of water resource planning and infrastructure, including sustainable use of groundwater resources

Scaling-up of land rehabilitation and estuarine, marine and coastal management programmes that create rural jobs, protect natural resource assets, and provide protection against extreme weather events such as working for wetlands, grasslands, coasts, fires etc

Objective 5: Promote access to climate resilient services and infrastructure

Lack of access or inadequate access to basic services and infrastructure increases the exposure and vulnerability of rural communities to the impacts of climate change. Lack of access to water and electricity constrains rural livelihoods by reducing the opportunities for rural women to earn income due to the amount of time spent in fetching and carrying water and fuel, for instance. As another example, inadequate sanitation and waste management in dense rural settlements can exacerbate the impacts of climate change on water quality and disease. Inadequate access to basic services may also lead to unsustainable pressure on the natural environment, such as deforestation due to reliance on firewood for cooking.

Extending access to basic surfaces and improving infrastructure not only improves the health and well-being of communities, but also creates jobs and promotes income diversification by creating new economic opportunities in rural areas. It provides an opportunity to stimulate the green economy by encouraging innovation that addresses the logistical, economic and climate-related challenges associated with service delivery in rural areas.

A strategic priority for the adaptation plan in pursuing this objective is to pilot and take to scale innovative, environmentally sustainable solutions for the delivery of basic services to rural

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communities that address the logistical challenges which have hindered delivery in the first place, including:

Climate resilient rural housing programmes that include rainwater harvesting, solar water heaters and off-grid/mini grid electrification, environmentally-friendly and socially acceptable sanitation solutions

Improved and more accessible primary health care facilities, involving renewable energy electrification and Internet access in remote rural clinics

Rural waste management strategies focusing on challenges facing rural communities, including the composting of organic waste linked to community food gardens and commercial food production

Objective 6: Strengthen disaster preparedness and response

Climate related disasters arising from an increase in the severity and intensity of extreme weather such as violent storms, and climate events such as an increase in the frequency and duration of droughts, represent a significant threat to rural human settlements. Rural human settlements are in many cases particularly vulnerable to climate related disasters as a consequence of the increased reliance of many rural households on natural resources, a high incidence of poverty, as well as issues of access as a result of remoteness and inadequate transport and communications infrastructure.

The National Disaster Management Centre, established in terms of the South African Disaster Management Act (2002), is the key partner in achieving this goal. To develop and implement climate-related disaster risk management strategies for rural human settlements, the following strategies will be pursued:

Identification of rural communities that are particularly at risk and vulnerable to climate-related disasters based on an analysis of historical data and climate change projections. These disasters include:

o Floods, including those associated with ocean front storm surges and sea-level rise.

o Storms

o Droughts

o Veld Fires

Develop and implement climate-related disaster risk reduction and management strategies for rural human settlements, including the expansion of rural fire-risk management programmes.

Due to the particular risks faced by remote rural communities which may not be effectively represented in local and provincial government institutions, there is a need for a Rural Disaster Relief Fund that can be used to rapidly respond to disasters in rural communities as they arise.

Objective 7: Invest in long term research on more effective ways to supports rural household climate resilience

While coping with uncertainty and risk by adopting a “least-regret” approach is an underlying principle in adaptation planning, a key goal of climate research is to reduce the uncertainty

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associated with climate change and provide timely, relevant information to inform planning processes and develop appropriate adaptation responses.

Current models of the global climate system and downscaling of those models will continue to be refined and will more closely approximate observed climate change over time as improvements are made to the models and the observations base. The ongoing improvement of techniques for downscaling climate projections is of strategic importance to the country’s adaptation plans.

Linked to improvements in the downscaling of climate change models of atmospheric conditions and surface temperatures, it is vitally important to progress in our understanding of the impacts of these changes on the country’s bio-physical systems and the social vulnerabilities that are exposed and exacerbated as a consequence.

The Department of Science and Technology, National Research Foundation, SAWS, CSIR, SANBI, SARVA and ARC are key partners in achieving this goal.This goal needs to be accomplished within the context provided by the Long Term Adaptation Scenarios planning process undertaken by the Department of Environmental Affairs, and sector-based adaptation planning processes such as those undertaken for the water sector by the Water Research Commission and by the Department of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries.

To strengthen adaptation plans and responses in rural human settlements through research, the following key research objectives will be pursued:

Projections from up-to-date downscaling of climate change models willbe combined with models of environmental sensitivity and social vulnerability at an appropriate resolution to meaningfully identify local risks and vulnerabilities.In particular, impacts in terms of health, agriculture, water resources and biodiversity are of key importance for biodiversity.

A survey of indigenous knowledge of climate variability and customary cultural practices and agricultural techniques that affect adaptive capability in rural human settlements.

Research to develop and identify technological and social innovation opportunities in rural human settlements, particularly with respect to environmentally and socially sustainable models for delivering housing, basic services and infrastructure to under-serviced rural human settlements.

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5. Implementation Plan

The DRDLR provides strategic direction and coordinates rural development, but rural development is a cross-cutting mandate that relates to a number of other government departments and institutions. The implementation component of the adaptation sector plan for rural human settlementsidentifies and seeks to leverage areas of alignment with the programmes of other government departments and agencies, but ultimately focuses on a set of actions for which the department can be held accountable.

The approach adopted in the implementation plan is to initially focus on identifying available instruments to support adaptation responses in rural human settlements. Such instruments include national strategies, policies, regulatory frameworks, programmes and planning tools.

The implementation plan then specifies the institutional arrangements for its implementation in terms of responsibilities for execution, reporting and accountability, as well as strategies for financing adaptation responses in rural human settlements.

Finally, the plan identifies specific programmes and projects to achieve its strategic objectives, and provides a monitoring and evaluation framework with indicators and timeframes in relation to the plan as a whole, as well as a conceptual framework for detailed monitoring and evaluation of particular adaptation projects.

5.1. Instruments

The available instruments for supporting adaptation responses are examined in relation to each of the strategic objectives identified for the sector adaptation plan in section 4.

5.1.1. Local adaption planning

The central planning tool for local development is the Integrated Development Plan (IDP), which is implemented by District, Local and Metropolitan Municipalities, all of which are likely to include rural human settlements within their boundaries. IDPs include and reference a number of more specific planning tools, including:

Integrated Waste Management Plans (IWMPs)

Spatial Development Frameworks (SDFs)

Bioregional Management Plans

IDPs should be drawn up to align with Provincial Growth and Development Strategies and Spatial Development Frameworks. Statutory requirements for public participation in local government planning processes exist, and the DRDLR will develop guidelines and tools for local government and rural communities that empower their participation in these processes.

Taking into account the capacity constraints already experienced by many municipalities, and particularly those with large rural populations, it is not suggested that adaptation plans for rural human settlements should be required as an additional, separate planning tool to be integrated into IDPs. Instead, the DRDLR will provide financial and technical support to districts in undertaking district-level assessments of risk and vulnerability in relation to rural human settlements, and

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provide guidelines to local municipalities for incorporating adaptation responses for rural human settlements into IDPs.

5.1.2. Sustainable rural livelihoods

The DRDLR’s Comprehensive Rural Development Programme (CRDP) forms the core of its strategy for promoting sustainable rural livelihoods, with the creation of decent work and sustainable livelihoods being a central objective of the programme.The CRDP programme focuses on a three stage strategy implemented in rural wards identified as appropriate targets for becoming CRDP sites. The three phases of the CRDP Programme are outlined below:

Figure 4: CRDP Programme Phases

The CRDP job creation and skills training strategy is linked to the EPWP programme, and the objective is for one member of every household in a CRDP site to be employed for a 2-year period, with contractual obligations to share at least 50% of their income with the household during the incubation phase of the programme. The DRDLR has entered into strategic partnership with the Department of Higher Education to facilitate education of rural youths to equip them with the skills needed to run their own enterprises in rural areas.

During phase 2 and 3 of the CRDP programme, the focus is initially on the creation of entrepreneurial opportunities around infrastructure development and agriculture, which is then expanded into the development of Small, Medium and Micro Enterprises by skilling rural people, building village economies and markets, strengthening public and social services, and providing access to credit finances.

The CRDP programme has potential alignment with DAFF strategies for agrarian renewal, as well as green economy initiatives outlined in the New Growth Path and the DTI’s Industrial Policy Action Plan for the agro-processing sector, such as development of the organic food sector, food processing and beneficiation industries, and aquaculture. The renewable energy sector, including wind, solar and bio-fuels, will also create jobs and catalyse investment in rural areas.

5.1.3. Sustainable land management

With the promulgation of the Spatial Planning and Land Use Management Act, Act No.16 of 2013 in August 2013, proper legal effect is given to instruments for national spatial planning and land use management, which include standards for:

National, Provincial, Regional and Municipal Spatial Development Frameworks.

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Incubation

Meeting basic needs is the driver

Entrepeneurship

Infrastructure development is the driver

Enterprise Development

SMME's and village markets are the drivers


Land use schemes, which must be developed by municipalities with the participation of traditional councils, and must provide for land use zoning.

Municipal Planning Tribunals, which consist of municipal officials and technical advisors (but exclude municipal councillors), which are responsible for determining land use and development applications within a municipality.

The Act provides for the Minister of Rural Development and Land Reform to issue regulations in terms of the act that include “... national norms and standards, policies and directives pertaining to spatial development planning, land use management and land development ...”. The principles that should apply to spatial planning and land use management include:

Spatial justice, which includes redressing historical imbalances and exclusions in terms of access to land, as well providing for security of tenure and the incremental upgrading of informal settlements.

Spatial sustainability, which includes fiscal sustainability, the protection of agricultural lands, sound environmental management and effective and equitable land markets.

Spatial resilience, which includes flexibility to ensure sustainable livelihoods in communities most vulnerable to economic and environmental shocks.

The Act clearly provides scope for the Minister to issue norms and standardsfor incorporating climate change risks and adaptation priorities in spatial development frameworks and land use management procedures, including the consideration of Environmental Impact Assessments (EIAs) associated with land development application procedures.

EIAs provide a potentially useful instrument both for land use management and planning, as they provide a mechanism through which climate change risk and vulnerability assessments can be performed at the scale of local development, and the EIA process includes provisions to ensure public participation.

A key instrument with respect to the principle of spatial justice is the Land Claims Commission. In the interests of ensuring that the land restitution process enhances rather than detracts from the resilience of rural communities, community land claims should include an EIA process to determine the implications of restitution settlements in relation to the principles outlined in the Act.

5.1.4. Sustainable eco-system services

Rural communities are directly dependant on eco-system services, and protecting the integrity of these services and the ecosystems that support them is therefore an important part of the Adaptation Plan.The Department of Environmental Affairs is a key institutional partner, providing the following frameworks and instruments to support biodiversity and eco-system services:

National Protected Area Expansion Strategy, which has as its overall goal cost-effective expansion for ecological sustainability and adaptation to climate change. The DEA is currently in the process of developing a programme for the implementation of the strategy, which seeks to contribute to job creation through community involvement in protected areas.

The Department’s Environmental Programmes Branch coordinates a raft of environmental Extended Public Works Programmes, including the Working for Water, Working on Fire, and

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Working for Wetlands. As well as contributing to climate change adaptation and mitigation, these programmes create jobs and provide skills and training in rural communities

Bio-regional plans are a mechanism established in terms of the Biodiversity Act, Act No. 10 of 2004, to provide for the incorporation of land-use guidelines for conserving natural habitat in critical biodiversity areas into multi-sectoral planning instruments such as Environmental Management Frameworks, IDPs, EIAs, and Spatial Development Frameworks.

5.1.5. Climate resilient infrastructure and services

Delivery of climate resilient infrastructure and services is central to enhancing sustainable rural livelihoods. While the DRDLR is not directly responsible for the delivery of services and infrastructure, it can partner with the relevant government departments and agencies to pilot innovative and sustainable solutions to the delivery of services and infrastructure in CRDP sites in which these services are currently not adequately delivered, often due to the logistical challenges encountered in remote rural areas. Opportunities for such partnerships include:

Off-grid and mini-grid solutions for renewable energy solutions as part of the National Electrification Programme in partnership with the Department of Energy, provincial and local municipalities.

Rural Household Infrastructure Programme, in partnership with the Department of Human Settlements, Provincial Governments, and service providers such as the Mvula Trust and Independent Development Trust. The programme seeks to improve sanitation services in rural areas.

Strategies for providing waste management services to rural communities in partnership with the Department of Environmental Affairs and rural municipalities as part of Integrated Waste Management Planning processes.

Rollout of rainwater harvesting systems to rural communities in partnership with the Department of Water Affairs, who have an existing programme.

Labour intensive programmes to maintain and upgrade rural roads, in partnership with SANRAL.

Partnerships with the Departments of Health and Basic Education to upgrade rural clinics and schools.

Collaboration with the Department of Human Settlements and local municipalities around rural densification and environmentally sustainable standards for rural low cost housing that is resilient to climate extremes.

5.1.6. Disaster Risk Management

The National Disaster Management Centre (NDMC) has been established under the Department of Cooperative Governance in terms of the Disaster Management Act, No.57 of 2002. The NDMC is responsible for the implementation of the National Disaster Management Framework, which emphasises disaster risk reduction and mitigation strategies. The four key performance areas (KPAs) of the NDMC are:

1. Establishing integrated institutional capacity within the national sphere to enable the effective implementation of disaster risk management policy and legislation.

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2. Establishing a uniform approach to assessing and monitoring disaster risks that will inform disaster risk management planning and disaster risk reduction undertaken by organs of state and other role players.

3. Ensuring all disaster risk management stakeholders develop and implement integrated disaster risk management plans and risk reduction programmes in accordance with approved frameworks.

4. Ensuring effective and appropriate disaster response and recovery by implementing early warning systems; mitigating the risks of personal injury, health, loss of life, property, infrastructure, environments and government services; implementing timely response and relief measures; and implementing rehabilitation and reconstruction strategies following disasters.

As has been documented in the Risk and Vulnerability Assessment that accompanies this plan, many rural communities are particularly vulnerable to climate-related disasters, and the DRDLR should therefore partner with NDMC in implementing the National Disaster Management Framework.

5.1.7. Research to support rural resilience

The central coordination mechanism for adaptation research is the Long Term Adaptation Scenario (LTAS) research programme that has been established by the Department of Environmental Affairs. The LTAS process develops adaptation scenarios through projecting climate change impacts for key sectors and examining the socioeconomic impacts at a national and sub-regional level. The first phase of the scenario planning process was completed in June 2013 and was targeted at:

Developing a consensus view of climate trends and projections for South Africa

Identifying key impacts and responses for the water, agriculture and forestry, human health, marine fisheries and biodiversity.

During the next phase of the process the scenario planning for rural, urban and coastal human settlements will be a key focus, as well as modelling of the economic impacts of climate change.

The LTAS is informed by research and adaptation planning that happens at a sector level, including research undertaken by the Water Research Commission and Agricultural Research Council, which is of particular relevance to rural human settlements. Other research institutions that contribute to and benefit from the LTAS include the Climate Systems Analysis Group (CSAG), the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) and the Human Sciences Research Council (HSRC). The CSIR maintains the South African Risk and Vulnerability Assessment (SARVA) on behalf of the Department of Science and Technology (DST). Climate Change is a key cross-cutting theme within SARVA.

The DST also hosts the National Research Foundation, which includes the South African Environmental Observation Network (SAEON) as a research facility. SAEON is key to developing the countries capacity to monitor climate and ecosystems.

To ensure that the relevance, quality and depth of scientific evidence available to support adaptation planning and responses for rural areas continues to improve, it is essential for the DRDLR to be an active participant in the LTAS process and actively engage research institutions to address research needs for rural human settlements.

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5.2. Institutional Arrangements

While accountability for implementation of the Climate Change Sector Adaptation Plan for Rural Human Settlements ultimately rests with the Minister for Rural Development and Land Reform, the DEA is responsible for the overall coordination of the NCCR, of which the Adaptation Plan for Rural Human Settlements is a directive. It is important for the adaptation plan to be integrated into the institutional arrangements envisaged for the implementation of the white paper to ensure policy coherence and promote intergovernmental cooperation. The diagram below describes the key institutional arrangements for implementation of the Adaptation Plan in terms of accountability, line functions, and stakeholder arrangements.

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Figure 5: Institutional Arrangements

Within the DRDLR, the Chief Directorate for Spatial Planning and Information is the owner of the plan, reporting to the Spatial Planning and Land Use Management Branch. The Director General: DRDLR is responsible for ensuring effective coordination of the plan across the various branches within the department, and in ensuring effective coordination through the Technical Implementation Forum for Presidential Outcome 7 with Director Generals from other core departments, provincial Heads of Department and local government officials. The Director General is accountable to the Minister of Rural Development, and ensuring that the Technical Implementation Forum provides effective support to the Minister in implementing the executive outcomes determined in the

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Ministerial Implementation Forum, which is coordinated by the Minister and includes the Ministers of core departments and relevant provincial MECs.

The Chief Directorate for Spatial Planning and Information will also report on the plan and refine implementation of the plan through participation in the LTAS, which will ensure that the adaptation responses that comprise the plan and the climate scenarios and impact assessments continue to be informed by research emerging from the broad range of stakeholders involved in the plan.

The Chief Directorate for Spatial Planning and Information will also report on the plan and coordinate its implementation with other national departments, provincial and local government spheres through participation in the Inter-governmental Committee on Climate Change and technical working committees established under this structure.

It is proposed that the Reference Group established to review the drafting of the plan be formalised in consultation with other Outcome 7 stakeholders and its scope of work extended to encompass oversight and coordination of the implementation of the plan.

To ensure that dedicated capacity exists to drive implementation of the plan, effective learning of lessons from implementation takes place, and thatpractical and robust systems for monitoring and evaluation are in place, the Chief Directorate will establish a Programme Management Unit (PMU) for the plan.

5.3. FinancingAdaptation

Maximising the impact of the Adaptation Plan depends on effectively leveraging the cross-cutting synergies that exist with the mandates and work of other government departments, spheres of government, and government agencies. The central implementation mechanism for the plan is the Comprehensive Rural Development Programme (CRDP), which is already included in the Medium Term Expenditure Framework of the Department. This funding will need to be supplemented with additional finance to support the implementation of Adaptation responses that go beyond what was envisaged in the initial design of the CRDP.

A range of programmes with existing funding in place have already been identified in the previous sectiondescribing instruments for implementation. The categories of funding these draw on include:

The Extended Public Works Programme

Local government budgets for integrated planning and capacity building.

Intergovernmental transfers which include direct and indirect transfers to local government such as the Integrated National Electrification Programme grant, Municipal disaster management grant, and Rural households infrastructure grant

Conditional grants to provinces, such as the Land Care Programme, Comprehensive agricultural support programme and provincial roads maintenance grant

Expenditure by national departments in terms of their existing mandates in relation to rural areas.

Furthermore, there is scope to leverage other sources of funding that include funding windows for adaptation, such as:

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The Green Fund, administered by the DBSA.

The Adaptation Fund which is a climate finance initiative established in terms of the Kyoto Protocol, and for which SANBI is the local implementing agent.

Donor agencies, such as GiZ and Oxfam, that have a history of funding climate change adaptation initiatives in rural areas.

5.4. Priority programmes and projects

In order to build momentum and ensure rapid delivery on the Climate Change Adaptation Sector Plan for Rural Human Settlements, four priority programmes have been identified. These four programmes target all the strategic objectives for the sector and support the overarching goal of sustainable rural livelihoods that are resilient to climate shocks and stresses through the coordination of people-centred responses to the risks and vulnerabilities posed by climate change. These programmes are:

1. Integration of climate change responses into the CRDP

2. Climate resilient land use management and spatial planning

3. Disaster risk management and planning

4. Research programme to support climate resilient rural human settlements

Each of the programmes are described below in terms of the strategic objectives they are designed to fulfil, the implementation strategy, and the component sub-programmes and/or projects.

5.4.1. Integration of climate change responses into the CRDP

The integration of adaptation planning and responses into the CRDP programme represents the core of the Climate Change Adaptation Sector Plan for Rural Human Settlements. Rural development and the design and implementation of climate change adaptation responses require multi-sectoral coordination and cooperative governance across government departments and spheres of government. The Comprehensive Rural Development Programme (CRDP) is a key mechanism for piloting and show-casing adaptation responses and climate resilient solutions to the delivery of services and infrastructure that can then be taken to scale through coordination with the relevant national departments and development agencies, as well as local government and traditional authorities.

The programme consists of the following components, or sub-programmes, structured around the strategic objectives for climate change adaptation in rural human settlements:

Local Adaptation Planning

Sustainable Livelihoods and Protection of eco-system services

Delivery of climate resilient services and infrastructure

The programme aims to build on, strengthen and extend the existing features of the CRDP programme that reduce social vulnerability and build adaptive capacity in rural communities. The following phased approach to integrating climate change into CRDP sites will be adopted:

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Figure 6: Phases for incorporating adaptation into CRDP sites

Local adaptation planning

So as to ensure learning based on regional differences in the environmental risks that climate change presents, as well as regional differences in social vulnerability, during the first year in the first year of implementation of the adaptation programme, each province will identify at least one new CRDP site in which local adaptation planning processes will be undertaken.

The department will appoint local service providers in each province to undertake community-based risk and vulnerability assessments and adaptation planning processes at the selected CRDP site. An Adaptation Learning Network for Rural Human Settlements will be created to facilitate the development and exchange of approaches and communications tools to support participatory adaptation planning and the leveraging of indigenous knowledge. The local municipalities in which the CRDP sites are located will be engaged as stakeholders in the process to ensure that the outcomes from the adaptation planning processes are incorporated into their Integrated Development Plans and build their capacity to plan for climate change.

Sustainable livelihoods and protection of eco-system services

To strengthen rural livelihoods while at the same time protecting the integrity of eco-system services, the following set of flagship programmes will be developed through the CRDP:

A climate resilient agriculture flagship programme to be established, based on strengthening the capacity of agricultural extension workers to support the needs of small-scale and subsistence farmers, agricultural co-operatives and improved access to markets. The Department of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries and the Agricultural Research Council will be key partners in this programme.

A programme to develop the “wild-life economy” in partnerships with SANParks and the DEA as part of the Protected Areas Expansion Strategy– including tourism, sustainable hunting, game farming, payment for eco-system services, carbon sequestration.

In partnership with DAFF, support to small-scale fisheries in the sustainable harvesting of natural resources and in reducing pressure on marine resources through promoting environmentally sustainable aquaculture projects in which small-scale fishing communities are stakeholders.

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Local Adaptation Planning

Identification of CRDP sitesRisk and Vulnerability AssessmentsParticipatory Adaptation Planning

Piloting of Adaptation Responses

Sustainable rural livelihoodsProtection of eco-system servicesClimate resilient services and infrastructure

Taking to scale

Evaluation and impact assessmentCost-benefit analysisBuild on success, learn from failure


A rainwater harvesting flagship programme to be taken to scale and linked to communal, small-scale and subsistence agricultural programmes. The Departments of Water Affairs and Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries will be key partners in this programme.

As key components of the CRDP rural livelihoods programme, in partnership with the DEA, scale up EPWP programmes such as working for wetlands, grasslands, and working for water rehabilitate critical ecosystems, especially those that provide protection against extreme weather events and sequester carbon..

In partnership with DEA, develop CRDP projects that finance biodiversity through environmental offset requirements for development.

Delivery of climate resilient services and infrastructure

To strengthen adaptive capacity in rural human settlements through improved access to basic services and infrastructure, the following set of flagship programmes will be developed through the CRDP:

A programme to test, pilot and take to scale environmentally sustainable and socially acceptable sanitation and housing solutions. The Departments of Human Settlements and Science and Technology will be key partners in this programme.

Mini-grid and off-grid renewable-energy electrification flagship programmes established and taken to scale, showcasing solutions for households, schools and clinics. The Department of Energy and SANEDI will be key partners in this programme.

A labour-intensive rural road maintenance and upgrade programme to be taken to scale, building on existing programmes that empower rural women and communities. The Department of Public Works and SANRAL will be key partners in this programme.

A waste services and recycling flagship programme targeting densely populated rural communities to be established. The Department of Environmental Affairs, REDISA, ROSE Foundation and PPRASA will be key partners in this programme.

5.4.2. Climate resilient land use management and spatial planning

This programme addresses the strategic objective of supporting sustainable land management that promotes climate resilience, with the implementation of the Spatial Planning and Land Use Management Act promulgated in August 2013 being the central implementation strategy.

The key projects within this programme are:

Researching and drafting norms and standards to support the integration of climate change risks and vulnerability assessments into:

o Spatial Development Frameworks

o Land Use Schema

o The Environmental Impact Assessment requirements for land development applications submitted to Municipal Planning Tribunals

Research and drafting amendments to or a replacement of the Communal Lands Rights Act, No. 11 of 2004, substantial portions of which have been rendered unenforceable by the

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constitutional court. Particularly to the rural populations in the former homelands who are highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, land tenure rights and customary practices in relation to land use rights are complex issues that require careful research and a flexible regulatory framework.

Developing procedures, potentially as an amendment to the Restitution of Land Rights Act, No. 22 of 1994, to ensure that the environmental implications of restitution of communal land are considered and that, without comprising the need to address historical distortions in land ownership and speed the pace of land reform, measures and finance are in place to ensure the land restitution reduces rather than enhances the vulnerability of poor rural communities to climate change.

Developing policy guidelines and analytical tools to assist municipalities in assessing climate change risks and vulnerabilities in the course of integrated planning processes that affect land use management in rural areas, particularly with respect to prohibiting development in high risk areas such as floodplains.

Land reform and land use management have a critical role to play in rural livelihoods, and the LTAS scenario planning process needs to unpack the environmental, economic and social implications of the current regulatory framework in relation to climate change risks and vulnerabilities for rural human settlements and guide proposed changes. Key issues that need to be considered include the need to enforce appropriate flood-lines in spatial planning and understand the implications of changes in land use management for runoff regimes and water catchment management.

5.4.3. Disaster risk management and planning

This programme addresses the strategic objective for climate change adaptation planning for rural human settlements to strengthen disaster preparedness and responses. The key partner in this programme is the National Disaster Management Centre (NDMC). The implementation strategy involves working with the NDMC and South African Weather Service in:

Conducting local climate change risk and vulnerability assessments to inform disaster risk management plans and spatial development plans in terms of zoning and identifying actions to reduce risks, such as rehabilitation of wetlands to reduce flood risks and alien clearing to reduce fire risks.

Capitalising aNational Rural Disaster Relief Fund to ensure swift responses to disasters in remote rural areas.

Establishing Disaster Management Strategies for climate-related disasters, such as veld fires, droughts and floods, that are sensitive to the particular circumstances and logistical challenges that may pertain in rural areas, such as lack of infrastructure such as roads and telecommunications and have a spatial and temporal scope that is sensitive to the daily, weekly and annual movement patterns of rural communities.

Strengthening early warning systems to ensure they are appropriate and accessible to rural areas, both in terms of the medium and the message.

5.4.4. Research programme to support climate resilient rural human settlements

This programme addresses the strategic objective ofinvesting in long term research on more effective ways to supports rural household climate resilience. The LTAS is currently playing a central position in developing consensus positions within the scientific community on key issues in relation

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to climate scenarios and adaptation responses. At the same time, institutions such as the ARC and CSIR produce more sector specific research that has a vital role to play in determining adaptation responses. The following areas of research are particularly critical to rural human settlements and the department should be contributing to and informing research agendas on these topics:

Research and innovation in climate resilient crops and livestock farming, with a particular focus on crops that are practical options for small-scale and subsistence farmers with little or no access to mechanised agricultural techniques. While this type of information may not be as commercially valuable as research targeting industrial agricultural applications, it is crucial to the livelihoods of the rural poor.

The department should commission an audit of indigenous agricultural knowledge and traditional agricultural practices, to build on existing climate resilient capabilities and identify maladaptive practices.

Technological innovation and research in service delivery to rural communities, focusing on appropriate green technologies, represents a key research activity that the department should be promoting and financially supporting.

5.5. Monitoring and Evaluation Framework

The monitoring and evaluation framework for the Climate Change Adaptation Plan as a whole is presented in the form of a logical framework in Table 5.

For each of the objectives in the plan, activities, indicators and means of verification have been provided. The assumptions that provided the rationale for identifying the activities intended to achieve each objective is also provided.

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Table 5: Logical Framework for Adaptation Plan

ADAPTATION PLAN FOR RURAL HUMAN SETTLEMENTS - LOGFRAME

DESCRIPTION ACTIVITIES INDICATORS MEANS OF VERIFICATION ASSUMPTIONS

GOAL Sustainable rural livelihoods that are resilient to climate shocks and stresses

Access to water and sanitation, energy, and waste collection.

Household Income

Unemployment

No. of new cases of children who weigh below 60% of their expected weight-for-age per 1000 children under the age of five.

Primary health care utilisation rate

StatsSA – Census 2011 & 2016



The District Health Barometer of the Health Systems Trust of South Africa.

The District Health Barometer of the Health Systems Trust of South Africa.

A coordinated country wide response built on local adaptation plans will result in sustainable livelihoods that are climate resilient

PURPOSE A co-ordinated people-centred response to the risks and vulnerabilities posed by climate change

The percentage and number of rural districts and local authorities with effective adaptation plans in place

The extent to which rural communities are informed and mobilised around climate adaptation

Mid-term (2.5 yrs) and end of programme (5yrs) evaluative survey and assessment of the implementation of the adaptation strategy for rural human settlements

Responding to the risks posed by climate change requires a coordinated country wide response, with decentralised processes of adaptation planning

Involving communities in the process of adaptation planning is the most effective way of unlocking local knowledge and resources and ensuring buy in to the plan

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OBJECTIVE 1 Support the development of community and local climate adaptation plans

Develop guidelines and tools for risk and vulnerability assessments and adaptation plans

Establish on-line database of latest climate science and social vulnerability data

Provide financial and technical support for participatory rural appraisal as cornerstone of adaptation planning

Incorporate adaptation plans into Integrated Development Plans and Spatial Development frameworks

Incorporate traditional knowledge and existing coping strategies into adaptation plans.

Train community workers, traditional leaders, local government officials and councillors from rural wards in

Number of community level adaptation plans prepared per annum

Number of local level adaptation plans prepared per annum

Number of participatory rural appraisals completed per annum

Number of IDPs which have incorporated adaptation plans

Number of community workers, traditional leaders, local government officials and councillors from rural wards trained in adaptation planning

DRDLR annual reports



COGTA assessment of IDP effectiveness


Participatory rural appraisal is an effective way of mobilising community resources to cope with climate change

Local adaptation plans will assist communities to develop long term risk management strategies to cope with climate change

Incorporating adaptation plans into IDPs will mainstream adaptation issues into municipal planning and decision making

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OBJECTIVE 2 Build local adaptive capacity through supporting sustainable livelihoods

Regular climate communications and early warning systems for food producers (commercial and subsistence)

Technical and financial support to small-scale and subsistence farmers, agricultural co-operatives and improved access to markets

Agricultural extension programmes to promote climate-sensitive agriculture (water and soil conservation, crop selection)

Rural household support initiatives to support income diversification

Job creation through upgrades and maintenance of rural roads

Development of the “wild-life economy” – tourism, sustainable hunting, game farming, payment for eco-system services, carbon sequestration

Support to small-scale fisheries

HIV treatment and prevention programmes

Effectiveness of climate communications to rural households

Number of small scale and subsistence farmers supported and quantum of financial support provided per annum

Household Income

Unemployment


Gender of head of household.

Annual assessment of climate communications strategy

DRDLR Annual Reports





Sustainable livelihoods and diversified household income provides the most effective climate risk mitigation

Technical and financial support to small-scale and subsistence farmers, improved access to markets and agricultural extension programmes will promote income diversification and sustainable livelihoods

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OBJECTIVE 3 Support sustainable land management that promotes climate resilience

Promote sustainable land use management, water-wise crop cultivation and irrigation practices e.g. drip irrigation

Accelerate land reform programme

Reform legislative framework for communal lands

Promote spatial planning and enforce 1:50 year flood lines

Catchment management informed by modelling of climate vulnerability

% of Degraded Land

Mean Annual Gross Irrigation demand

Land ownership (% of land owned privately)

Soil susceptibility to water erosion

% households living in flood plains

SARVA (DAFF)

SARVA (Schulze, 2008)

Surveyor General reports

DAFF

Surveyor General reports

Sustainable land use will improve land productivity and build resilience of rural communities to climate change

Land ownership provides rural households with an important asset that can be used to raise finance and diversify household income

Effective spatial planning and enforcement of floodlines will protect communities from devastating impact of floods and other disasters

Sustainable land use practices in catchments will protect water resources for rural communities

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OBJECTIVE 4 Protect ecosystem services to rural communities

Strengthen water resource planning and infrastructure

Ensure sustainable use of groundwater resources

Scale up land rehabilitation programmes – working for wetlands, grasslands, alien-clearing etc

Estuarine, marine and coastal management programmes

Expansion of protected areas and community based natural resources management programmes

Rehabilitation of ecosystems such as wetlands that provide protection against extreme weather events, working for fire programme

Financing of biodiversity through environmental offset requirements for development

Ecosystem Protection Level

Availability of Ground Water

Invasive Plant Survey (average density all species)

% of land under protected areas

Hectares of wetlands /other ecosystems rehabilitated

Quantum of investment into biodiversity offsets per annum

SANBI BGIS

SARVA

ARC reports

SANBI BGIS and DEA Annual Reports

SANBI BGIS and DEA Annual Reports

Ecosystems provide critical services to rural communities such as clean water, air, biodiversity and soils, and protecting ecosystems will build resilience of rural communities to climate change

Expanding protected areas to include critical ecosystems in ways that do not compete with other land uses will contribute to ecosystem resilience

Biodiversity offsets are a cost effective way of promoting ecosystem protection and ensuring no net loss of biodiversity assets

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OBJECTIVE 5 Promote access to climate resilient services and infrastructure

Improved delivery of services to rural human settlements

Improved and more accessible primary health care facilities

Renewable energy electrification and Internet access in remote rural clinics


Climate resilient rural housing programme including solar water heaters and off-grid/mini grid electrification

Rural waste management strategies focusing on challenges facing rural communities

Composting of organic waste linked to community food gardens and commercial food production

Rainwater harvesting

Access to water and sanitation, energy, and waste collection.


Dwelling type (% of informal dwellings)

% of rural households with rain water harvesting tanks


The District Health Barometer 2010/11 by the Health Systems Trust of South Africa. Data obtained from DHIS (2011 & 2016)


Stats SA: Census 2011 & 2016

Greater access to infrastructure services, health facilities and formal housing is a critical indicator of household adaptive capacity in rural areas

Infrastructure can be effectively designed and delivered in ways that lessen its impact on the environment and which increase its effectiveness in withstanding climate shocks and disasters

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Objective 6 Strengthen disaster preparedness and response

Expand rural fire-risk management programmes

Capitalise Rural Disaster Relief Fund

Establish Rural Disaster Management Strategies for climate-related disasters

Conduct local risk and vulnerability assessments to inform disaster risk management plans and spatial development plans in terms of zoning

% of rural districts covered by rural fire-risk management programmes

Annual capitalisation of Rural Disaster Relief Fund

% of rural districts with Disaster Management Strategies for climate-related disasters

No. of local risk and vulnerability assessments conducted


National Treasury Annual Reports

National Disaster Management Centre Annual Reports


Strengthening disaster management response capability will lessen the impact of extreme weather evens and fires, and is a crucial adjunct to building climate resilience in rural communities

Disaster risk management is location specific, and local risk and vulnerability assessments are essential to inform disaster risk management plans

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Objective 7 Invest in long term research on more effective ways to supports rural household climate resilience

Research and innovation in climate resilient crops and livestock farming

Audit of indigenous agricultural knowledge and traditional agricultural practices, to build on existing climate resilient capabilities


Technological innovation and research in service delivery to rural communities, focusing on appropriate green technologies

Improved delivery of service to rural communities (see adaptation responses for environmental health risks)

Number of research papers published on climate resilient crops and livestock farming

Report on audit of indigenous agricultural knowledge and traditional agricultural practices


ARC Annual Reports

Report on audit of indigenous agricultural knowledge and traditional agricultural practices

DAFF Annual Reports

Investment in long term climate related research will mitigate the risks associated with the high degree of uncertainty related to climate change

Indigenous agricultural knowledge and traditional agricultural practices are important assets that local communities have at their disposal in dealing with the risks of climate change

There are important gaps in our knowledge regarding climate resilient crops and livestock farming, appropriate green technologies and climate resilient services to rural communities that merit greater research investment.

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5.5.1. Guidelines for the monitoring and evaluation of projects

Careful and detailed monitoring and evaluation (M&E) of climate change adaptation projects within the overall framework of the Adaptation Plan is essential to ensure that scarce resources are allocated as effectively and as efficiently as possible. Effective M&E also facilitates the integration of learning from previous adaptation interventions into emerging planning and implementation.

Effective M&E of adaptation activities should allow for flexibility to address unexpected challenges, compare institutional structures and results across different interventions and locations, and promote learning and debate between stakeholders. A key step in implementing M&E frameworks that specifically target climate change adaptation is to clearly defineboth the particular climate change related risk that the intervention is responding to and the climate change adaptation outcome.

The M&E system for adaptation projects in rural human settlements described here is based on the six step M&E system put forward by Spearman & McGraw (2011) and outlined Figure 7below.

Figure 7: Steps in the monitoring and evaluation process

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Step 1: Describe the Adaptation Context

The first step is to describe the adaptation through a comprehensive assessment of risks and vulnerabilities. This assists in identifying factors that can influence an adaptation intervention both directly and indirectly, in better describing the needs of the stakeholders, in identifying opportunities, and in maintaining flexibility. When making use of vulnerability assessments it is vital that data used in setting baselines is adequate and accurate, that the key obstacles and enabling factors are identified, and that gaps in the vulnerability assessment are identified.

Step 2: Identify the Contribution to Adaptation

The second step in designing an M&E system for adaptation is to identify the contribution to adaptation that the intervention is designed to deliver. Identifying the contribution to adaptation can be challenging because of the diversity of activities which have relevance for adaptation. There is no blanket solution for adaptation activities since each intervention must be context specific. A climate change adaptation intervention is best described by the nature of its objectives.

Step 3: Form an Adaptation Hypothesis

Step three is to form an adaptation hypothesis. This is done only once it is clear how the adaptation intervention contributes to one of the dimensions of climate change adaptation. An adaptation hypothesis is a testable statement that describes how each outcome addresses specific risks or vulnerabilities.

Step 4: Create a Theory of Change

The fourth step, once the adaptation hypothesis for each intervention is drafted, is to create a consistent theory of change that links the adaptation activities to the adaptation outcomes. The theory of change tracks the conditions needed to reach the adaptation objective by breaking them down into achievable steps. Establishing the desired chain of events is useful for understanding the function of an intervention and monitoring its intervention.

Step 5: Choose Indicators and Set a Baseline

The fifth step is to choose indicators and set a baseline. The climate change adaptation impact must be reflected in the indicators. Indicators should be informed by the vulnerability assessment and should target the objectives of the adaptation intervention. M&E for climate change adaptation often requires more qualitative assessment than is the case for mitigation interventions, which can be technically challenging.

Step 6: Use the Adaptation M&E System

The final step is to use the adaptation M&E system.It is important is to ensure that the indicators are monitored consistently and frequently, that the data is being collected from the relevant sources, and that there are clearly designated roles for the process which are understood by the relevant parties.

5.5.2.

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6. References

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Archer, E., et al (2010). “South African risk and vulnerability atlas”. Department of Science and Technology. Available online at http://www.sarva.org.za/download/sarva_atlas.pdf

Campbell, A., et al. (2009). “Review of the Literature on the Links between Biodiversity and Climate Change: Impacts, Adaptation and Mitigation”. Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity, Montreal. Technical Series No. 42

CCSP, 2008. “Climate Models: An Assessment of Strengths and Limitations”. A Report by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research [Bader D.C., C. Covey, W.J. Gutowski, I.M. Held, K.E.Kunkel, R.L. Miller, R.T. Tokmakian and M.H. Zhang (Authors)]. Department of Energy, Office of Biological andEnvironmental Research, Washington, D.C., USA.

Chartered Institute of Environmental Health. (2013). “Climate Change and Hosing”. Available online at http://www.cieh.org/policy/climate_change_and_housing.html.

DEA (2011). “South Africa’s Second National Communication under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change”. Department of Environmental Affairs, Republic of South Africa, Pretoria.

Department of Health. (2012). “The National Antenatal Sentinel HIV and Syphilis Prevalence Survey, South Africa, 2011”.Department of Health, Republic of South Africa, Pretoria

Department of International Relations and Cooperation-COP17. (2011). “The effects of Climate Change on South Africa”. Available online at http://www.cop17-cmp7durban.com/en/south-africa-on-climate-change/effects-of-climate-change-on-south-africa.html.

Department of Rural Development and Land Reform. (2013). “About us”. Available online at http://www.dla.gov.za/about-us/programmes/rural-development#.UbdFoeenA8E.

Environmental Monitoring Group. (2013). “Land Degradation”. Available online at http://www.botany.uwc.ac.za/inforeep/land1.htm.

EPA (United States Environmental Protection Agency). (2013). “Introduction to Global Issues). Available online at http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/impacts-adaptation/international.html.

Gbetibouo & Ringler. (2009). “Mapping South African Farming Sector to Climate Change & Variability”. IFPRI Discussion Paper. Available online at http://www.ifpri.org/sites/default/files/publications/ifpridp00885.pdf.

Ground water Division. (2012). Groundwater in South Africa. Available online at http://gwd.org.za/books/groundwater-south-africa.

FAO. (2007). “Climate variability and change: adaptation to drought in Bangladesh. A resource book and training guide”. Available online at ftp://ftp.fao.org/docrep/fao/010/a1247e/a1247e00.pdf

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