Holiday Spend Analysis SPEND ANALYSIS | JANUARY 2018 | ©FIRST DATA CORPORATION. ALL RIGHTS...

HOLIDAY SPEND ANALYSIS | JANUARY 2018 | ©FIRST DATA CORPORATION. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.

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Holiday Spend

Analysis 2017 Full Season Recap

Information and Analytics

January 2018


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Executive Summary – Full Season Update

Overall growth for the 2017 Full Holiday Shopping Season was the

strongest of the last 4 years, at 6.2%

Retail growth was 5.4%, more than 28% ahead of last year’s retail

growth of 3.6%

Retail eCommerce sales growth continues to out-pace brick and

mortar growth, ending at 10.4% vs.4.0% for Brick & Mortar.

eCommerce overall sales growth slowed in General Merchandise for

the Full Season, suggesting that Brick & Mortar activity still dominates

as consumers draw closer to Christmas.

Specialty Retailer was the only Retail category to show any

significant increase in eCommerce sales growth over 2016.

For the Full Season, eCommerce average ticket exceed brick and

mortar average ticket across all Retail categories, except in

Electronics and Appliances, where in-store average ticket is 37%

higher than eCommerce.

Houston won the Holiday Season, with 10.9% overall spending

growth, no doubt aided by aggressive hurricane recovery. The most

growth was seen in Building Materials (31%) and Furniture (22%)

Southwest and New England Regions had the strongest US growth

for Full Season, while Mid-Atlantic had the weakest performance.

Los Angeles (4.0%), San Francisco (4.1%) and Seattle (6.1%) drove

retail sales growth for the West region, while Houston (15.7%),

Phoenix (4.8%), and San Antonio (1.0%) drove the Southwest region

growth for Full Season.

Among the largest metro areas in the US, the highest Retail average

ticket growth (brick & mortar) for Full Season was in Houston at

8.0%, driven by Building Materials/DIY; Columbus, OH had the lowest

average ticket growth at -0.9%, driven by Department Stores.

Total US Level Observations State & MSA Level Observations


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Spending Growth: Pre-Holiday, Thanksgiving + Black Friday, Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday, MidSeason, Full Season

We saw an impressive pickup in 2017 across pre-holiday, TH+BF, Cyber Monday, and a strong holiday season finish

Total Spend

YoY Growth

4.9%

2.8% 3.4%

5.7% 5.2%

10.6%

7.8%

11.9%

7.9% 7.5%

5.6%

11.3%

2.7% 2.7%

3.7%

9.2%

1.8%

4.7%

6.2%

0%

5%

10%

15%

2014 2015 2016 2017

Pre-Holiday TH + BF TH to CM MIDSEASON Full Season

Note: Figures exclude gasoline stations. Pre-Holiday defined as the approximate 3-week period, starting November 1 and continuing through to the day before Thanksgiving.

Source: First Data aggregated data.

The 2017 Full Holiday Shopping Season was the strongest of the last 4 years.


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3.4%

1.7% 1.6%

5.9%

3.5%

9.4% 9.0% 9.3%

5.3%

6.3% 5.8%

8.0%

1.8% 2.4%

2.0%

6.6%

3.2% 3.3% 3.6%

5.4%

0%

5%

10%

15%

2014 2015 2016 2017

Pre-Holiday TH + BF TH to CM MIDSEASON Full Season

Spending Growth: Pre-Holiday, Thanksgiving + Black Friday, Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday, MidSeason, Full Season

We saw an impressive pickup in 2017 across pre-holiday, TH+BF, Cyber Monday, and continuing through the Full Season

Note: Figures exclude gasoline stations. Pre-Holiday defined as the approximate 3-week period, starting November 1 and continuing through to the day before Thanksgiving.


Retail Spend

YoY Growth

2017 Full Season Holiday Growth out-paced 2016 Full Season Growth by 28%.


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Transactions, Average Ticket and Sales: Full Season Holiday Spending eCommerce spending appears to be trickling down to include more everyday items

Note: Figures exclude gasoline stations.


Retail Sector – Transactions, Average Ticket and Sales Trends

YoY Growth

2.0%

12.8%

3.6% 1.9%

-2.1%

1.7%

4.0%

10.4%

5.4%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

Full Season 2017Brick & Mortar

Full Season 2017eCommerce

Full Season 2017Total

Transactions Average Ticket Sales• The season ended with a healthy

overall retail growth rate of 5.4%.

• eCommerce transactions grew at

a pace more than 6x faster than

brick & mortar for the full season.

• The slower growth in average

ticket size at eCommerce

suggests that consumers are

replenishing lower-priced

everyday items with higher

frequency, along with holiday

shopping.

Key Takeaways


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Total Spend Growth by Category: Full Season Electronics & Appliances was the strongest growth category throughout the holiday season



Growth Breakdown by Retail Category

8.3% 6.9%

6.1%

2.8% 2.8% 2.4%

-0.6%

Electronics &Appliances

Building Materials& DIY

SpecialtyRetailers

Furniture &Home Furnishings

Clothing &Accessories

GeneralMerchandise

Sporting Goods/Hobby/Books/Music

YoY Growth

Total Retail 5.4%


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Average Ticket Size by Category: Full Season Building Materials/DIY remained the strongest average ticket growth versus all other retail industries, most of

which remained flat



5.0%

1.4%

0.8% 0.7% 0.7% 0.6%

-0.4%

BuildingMaterials/DIY


SpecialtyRetailers

Furniture/Home Furnishings


GeneralMerchandise


Ticket Growth by Retail Category

YoY Growth

Total Retail 1.7%


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Average Ticket Size by Category: Full Season Electronics and Appliance stores’ higher average ticket in Brick and Mortar stores suggests that shoppers still

prefer to ‘test the merchandise’ before buying



$84.11 $79.04

$219.40

$37.53

$56.70

$152.44

$80.63

$192.65

$113.17

$263.61

$100.58 $107.29

$96.58 $89.39

BuildingMaterials/DIY


Furniture/Home Furnishings

GeneralMerchandise

SpecialtyRetailers



Brick & Mortar

eCommerce

Average Ticket Size by Retail Category


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Total Spending by Channel: Full Season eCommerce ended up at 29% of total sales



Brick & Mortar vs. eCommerce

75% 76% 73% 74% 71% 72% 70% 71%

25% 24% 27% 26% 29% 28% 30% 29%

2016TH+BF

2016TH to CM

2016MIDSEASON

2016FULL SEASON

2017TH+BF

2017TH to CM

2017MIDSEASON

2017FULL SEASON

Brick & Mortar eCommerce

Percent of Spending by Channel


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Spend Growth by Category: Full Season



Brick & Mortar vs. eCommerce – Selected Categories

YoY Growth

Brick & Mortar eCommerce Total

2016 2017 2016 2017 2016 2017

Building Materials & DIY 9.8% 6.1% 17.0% 12.9% 10.7% 6.9%

Clothing & Accessories -0.8% 2.1% 5.4% 6.0% 0.1% 2.8%

Electronics & Appliances 7.1% 7.9% 13.2% 10.6% 8.5% 8.3%

Furniture & Home Furnishings 0.5% 0.6% 7.8% 8.3% 2.2% 2.8%

General Merchandise -2.8% 2.2% 29.0% 6.5% -0.3% 2.4%

Specialty Retailers 2.1% 4.4% 8.0% 10.7% 3.3% 6.1%

Sporting Goods/Hobby/Books/Music -6.9% -1.1% 19.0% 3.1% -0.7% -0.6%

Total Retail 0.1% 5.4% 9.0% 11.0% 2.0% 5.4%

Notable acceleration Notable deceleration


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Regional

Spending


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Regional Retail Sales Growth: Full Season The Southwest led all regions, perhaps a halo effect of hurricane recovery

Note: Brick & Mortar only. Figures exclude gasoline stations.


Total Retail Growth

4.0% (2017)

1.6% (2016)

5.0% (2017)

1.4% (2016)

4.0% (2017)

0.9% (2016)

5.7% (2017)

-0.6% (2016)

4.2% (2017)

4.8% (2016)

5.5% (2017)

0.9% (2016)

0.7% (2017)

0.4% (2016)


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Top MSA Retail Sales Growth: Full Season Among the largest US cities, Houston and Miami lead in brick & mortar retail sales growth

Note: Brick & Mortar only. Figures exclude gasoline stations.


Total Retail Growth

4.0% (2017)

1.6% (2016)

Ttl Midwest: 5.0%

Chicago: -0.4%

Minneapolis: 2.4%

Ttl South: 4.0%

Atlanta: 2.9%

Miami: 7.5% Ttl Southwest: 5.7%

Houston: 15.7%

Dallas: 0.4%

Ttl West: 4.2%

LA: 4.0%

SF: 4.1%

Ttl New England: 5.5%

Boston: 5.3%

Providence: 6.5%

Ttl Mid Atlantic: 0.7%

New York: 2.6%

Philadelphia: 3.7%

Washington DC: 1.0%


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Methodology

All data is proprietary transaction data from First Data’s systems

Our analysis includes all card-based forms of payment and is based

on actual, same-store sales activity

We have selected 1.3MM merchants’ POS activity as a

representative sample:

― 1.1MM Brick & Mortar

― 200K eCommerce

Selection criteria included all merchants with 13 months of consecutive

activity since October 2016

Additional filtering parameters were applied to exclude merchants

disproportionately impacted by non-economic activities (i.e. natural

disaster)

All growth rates reflect a year-over-year basis

Pre-Holiday dates include 11/02–11/23/2016 (prior year) and

11/01–11/22/2017 (current year)

Thanksgiving and Black Friday comparisons covered 11/24–11/25/2016

(prior year) and 11/23–11/24/2017 (current year)

Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday comparisons covered 11/24-11/28/2016

(prior year) and 11/23-11/27/2017 (current year)

MidSeason comparisons covered 10/28-12/18/2017 (current year) and

10/29-12/19/2016 (prior year)

Full Season comparisons covered 10/28-01/01/2018 (current year) and

10/29-01/02/2017 (prior year)

Holiday Spend Analysis SPEND ANALYSIS | JANUARY 2018 | ©FIRST DATA CORPORATION. ALL RIGHTS...

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Transcript of Holiday Spend Analysis SPEND ANALYSIS | JANUARY 2018 | ©FIRST DATA CORPORATION. ALL RIGHTS...