HISTORY REPEATS ITSELF - San Diego County, California › fg3 › media › econ2010... · HISTORY...
Transcript of HISTORY REPEATS ITSELF - San Diego County, California › fg3 › media › econ2010... · HISTORY...
HISTORY REPEATS ITSELF
HISTORY REPEATS HISTORY REPEATS ITSELFITSELF
Drawing on the past to Drawing on the past to determine the futuredetermine the future
Sharon Hanley, Partner Sharon Hanley, Partner Hanley GroupHanley Group
THE NEW AXIOMFOR SALES SUCCESS
• FINANCING – Land
• FINANCING – Construction
• FINANCING – Take-Out
LAND FINANCING
• 30+ land parcels back to bank/seller • Foreclosed lots held to stay “healthy”• Financing non-existent for land• Sellers unable to cover land draws
CONSTRUCTION FINANCING
• Unavailable to most builders• Some out-of-pocket building• Private financing on small projects• TARP not loosening builder finance
TAKE-OUT FINANCING
• Difficult to qualify• Ratios need careful revamp• Appraisals low even with comps• AITD’s and 2nd’s not acceptable• Agents frustrated by delays
Interesting Facts
• Price Reductions– Range from 13% to 25% of median– Decreases do not include incentives
• Conversions – 87 active in 2005 – 4 in 2009– About 50% now leasing
And Now For A History
• Active Tracts• Sales• Cancels• Inventory• Traffic
256302 280
229 207 222 214 202 189 213 240 257 238 245 245289
350299
226
138
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
SAN DIEGO COUNTY - All InventoryActive Tracts
Average For Year 1990 Through 2009
New To Market• 2005 - 200• 2006 – 159• 2007 - 76• 2008 - 14• 2009 - 20 – 50 % in 4th Qtr• 2010 - 6 – Confirmed for 1st Qtr• 2010 - 31 – Possible 2010 Openings
Inventory Available for 2010
• 1,897 - For Sale Now• 2,462 - Planned/Unreleased Active Tracts• 307 - Confirmed Openings• 2,769 – Available Inventory 2010
• 2,683 – Total Sales 2009
New Home Sales Rates
• Total Annual Sales• Average Annual Sales Per Month• Total Monthly Sales• Average Monthly Sales• Cancellation Rates
6826 72286179 5688 6439 5764
6296 8526 8374 8719
112709633
11245
13296
1510214541
9073
5864
2641 2683
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
SAN DIEGO COUNTY - All InventoryTotal Annual Net SalesYear End Total 1990 Through 2009
2.2 2.0 1.8 2.12.6
2.22.5
3.5 3.7 3.43.9
3.1
3.9
4.5
5.14.1
2.21.6
1.0 1.6
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
SAN DIEGO COUNTY - All InventoryAverage Net Sales Per Tract Per Month
Year End Average Per Month 1990 Through 2009
SAN DIEGO COUNTY - All InventoryAverage Sales Per Month Per Tract
January 2004 through December 2009 By Month
4 . 3
7 . 2
6 . 45 . 9
2 . 52 . 8
2 . 1
1. 10 . 6
1. 3 1. 40 . 8
1. 6 1. 51. 0
2 . 1
1. 1 1. 7
2 . 12 . 1
1. 91. 8
2 . 3
0 . 90 . 70 . 9
0 . 9
1. 2
0 . 70 . 9
3 . 3
5 . 5
2 . 2
2 . 2
1. 8
3 . 3
3 . 5
4 . 2
5 . 9
2 . 6
1. 82 . 7
6 . 9
5 . 4
5 . 5
5 . 3
4 . 9
4 . 2
2 . 8
2 . 5
2 . 5
2 . 3
1. 7 1. 8
2 . 21. 8
2 . 11. 9
2 . 4
2 . 3
1. 9
1. 3
0 . 8
1. 6
0 . 70 . 6
1. 3
1. 72 . 0
7 . 2
5 . 0
7 . 2
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
3.2 2.92.4 2.6 2.9 2.5
2.84.0
5.4 5.55.9 5.3
5.2
7.1 7.9
5.8
2.82.1
1.0
2.3
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
SAN DIEGO COUNTY - AttachedAverage Net Sales Per Tract Per MonthYear End Average Per Month 1990 Through 2009
2.0 1.7 1.6 1.82.5
2.02.4
3.4 3.5 3.33.7
2.7
3.7
3.6
3.5
2.5 1.51.2
0.9 1.3
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
SAN DIEGO COUNTY - Detached OnlyAverage Net Sales Per Tract Per Month
Year End Average Per Month 1990 Through 2009
37.1%35.0% 34.5%
29.4%26.1% 26.1%
23.6%
19.0% 19.4% 18.5% 17.2%22.6%
16.4% 13.0%13.7%
23.0%
31.4%
30.1%
33.3%
17.2%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
SAN DIEGO COUNTY - All InventoryAverage Cancellation Rate
Year End Average 1990 Through 2009
SAN DIEGO COUNTY - All InventoryMonthly Cancellation Rate
January 2004 through December 2009 By Month
12 %8 % 7 %
16 %
2 2 %
2 8 % 2 9 % 3 0 %
3 7 %
2 8 %
3 5 %
2 5 %2 3 %
5 2 %
3 3 %
4 2 %
3 3 %2 9 %
3 9 %4 1%
3 6 %
2 4 %
3 0 %
17 %
2 5 %
17 %19 %
16 %2 0 %
16 %2 0 %
13 %12 %
2 6 %
3 8 %
2 3 %2 2 %
2 6 %
10 %
3 0 %
3 5 %
3 4 %
18 %18 %
18 %
19 %19 %
2 0 %
2 5 %
2 9 %
3 1%
3 1%
3 6 %
3 0 %
2 8 %
3 4 %
2 7 %
2 7 %
2 6 %
2 3 %
2 2 %
4 0 %5 0 %
2 6 %
4 2 %4 4 %
19 %14 %
3 7 %
7 %
11%7 %
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
3602
13851803
1506 1389849 560
420 254800
1240 879945
1242
3148
4758
4540
29552001
1821
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
SAN DIEGO COUNTY - All InventoryAvailable For Sale - Released & UnsoldYear End Total 1990 Through 2009
13.3
4.76.9 7.6
6.7
4.0 2.62.2 1.2
3.45.0 3.3 4.1
5.3
11.6
14.8 14.1
10.711.4
16.7
0123456789
101112131415161718
SAN DIEGO COUNTY - All InventoryAverage Available Per Tract
Year End Average Per Month 1990 Through 2009
11.7
6.1
9.1 9.5 9.6
5.13.3
2.41.5
4.0
7.6
5.5
6.75.2
4.5
5.8
6.5
6.86.1
5.0
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
SAN DIEGO COUNTY - DetachedAverage Available Per Tract
Year End Average Per Month 1990 Through 2009
52 4538 36
44 38 4259
7060 56 50
61 61 6650
32 27 20 190
25
50
75
100
SAN DIEGO COUNTY - All InventoryAverage Traffic Per Active Tract
Average For Year 1990 Through 2009
101 98 8876 74 76 74 72 82 77
62 70 67 59 56 5365 70
90
51
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
SAN DIEGO COUNTY - All InventoryTraffic To Generate One Net Sale
Average For Year 1990 Through 2009
SAN DIEGO COUNTY BUILDER SALES 2009
Total Sales 2683Shea Homes , 238
Pacifica Companies , 199
Pardee Construction , 159
Standard Pacific , 123
Bosa Development , 114
William Lyon Homes , 114
K Hovnanian Companies , 107
Brookfield Homes , 106
Builders 11-20 Totals, 591
Builders 21-30 Totals, 337
Builders 31-40 Totals, 143
Builders 41-101 Totals, 253
D R Horton Company , 99 Cornerstone Homes, 100
Projections 2010
• Price increases of estimated 5%• Sales increase of estimated 10-15%• Dependent upon
– Available Inventory– Take-out Financing– Construction Loan Financing