hina’s role in the world - institute.global · abetted hina’s actions. Those days are over. _...
Transcript of hina’s role in the world - institute.global · abetted hina’s actions. Those days are over. _...
China’s role in the world
JUNE 2020
2
• Economic ties surged• China joined WTO in 2001• Co-operation on Global Financial Crisis
• Increased tensions on:o South China Seao New Chinese institutions (e.g. AIIB)
• Strengthen ties with other Asian countries (e.g. Japan, Vietnam) to contain Beijing
• Trade/tech war• Increased military competition in Asia• Pushback against BRI
4766
2017 2020
Public opinion
Bi-partisan consensus
Econ. challenges
Xi position
• First time China’s growth turned negative in 40 years
• CCP could increase nationalism to shore up legitimacy (particularly as feeling isolated globally)
% of Americans who hold unfavourable view of China
• Stoking nationalism also in Xi’s interest• Leadership changes/anti-corruption
campaign alienated powerful interests• Vulnerable to criticism for Covid
handling/BRI setbacks
Recent US-China relations Domestic pressure on bilateral ties
StrongWeak
US-China relations have sharply deteriorated in the past decade, with little prospect of rebounding
“Previous administrations ignored or abetted China’s actions. Those days are over.”
Vice President Pence
Pivot to Asia2011-2016
New Cold War?
2017 –present
Responsible Stakeholder 2001-2010
“We need to confront China’s abusive behaviours and human rights violations.”
Joe BidenFormer Vice President
Polling: Public opinion towards China in Britain, the US, France and
Germany will also make it harder for politicians to not act
4
Nationally representative surveys conducted for YouGov on behalf of the Tony Blair Institute
Great Britain
2,033 adults(4 – 15 June 2020)
United States
2,418 adults(8 – 11 June 2020)
Germany
2,020 adults(9 – 12 June 2020)
France
2,023 adults(9 – 11 June 2020)
China is generally seen as a “force for bad” in the world in Britain, the US and France
55
28
6
46
38
6
54
27
8
60
30
2
0 20 40 60 80
Worsened
No difference
Improved
%
Attitudes towards the Chinese government have hardened during the pandemic
Great Britain US Germany France
5Question: Please say whether you think each of the following is generally a force for good or a force for bad in the world, or neither?
Question: Has your opinion of each of the following improved or worsened since the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic, or has it made no difference?
A majority of people in Britain, the US and France and a plurality in Germany actively see the Chinese government as a force for bad in the world and their opinion has worsened through the pandemic
19 1729
13
3 54
5
6056 47 60
19 22 19 22
Force for good
Neither
Force for bad
Don't know
40
32
13
36
25 3 4
49 48
4044
12
22
1419
3 3 48
4
10 8
17
4 4 5 4
14
8
27
13
0
10
20
30
40
50
Great Britain US Germany France
%
In Britain, the US, Germany and France, people hold their own governments less responsible than
the Chinese government
My government
My local/regional government
The Chinese government
The World Health Organisation
Scientists in my country
The healthcare system in my country
Other
No one is really to blame
There are some differences in opinion by age
• Younger people in Britain are more likely to blame the
British government than they are the Chinese
government for the severity of the pandemic. (52% of
UK 18-24s think Britain’s government is most to blame,
compared to 31% of 55-64s.)
• In the US, older people are more definitive about
blame resting with the Chinese government with 63%
of those aged 65 and above saying it is most
responsible. US 25-34s are the only generation to place
more responsibility with their own national
government than with the Chinese government.
• In Germany, the Chinese government is blamed the
most across generations. Older people are more likely
to say no one is to blame (21% for 18-24s compared to
35% of 65+).
• In France, 18-24s place almost equal responsibility with
the Chinese government and their own national
government (32% and 34%) whereas older people are
more likely to blame the Chinese government.
6Question: Which one or two, if any, of the following would you say is MOST responsible for the severity of the
coronavirus pandemic?
The Chinese government is consistently seen as the most responsible for the severity of the pandemic
6
13
47
40
54
11
11
61
52
66
10
45
44
46
51
6
11
53
59
70
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
The Chinese government
The US Government
The European Union
The United Nations
The World Health Organisation
%
The WHO is the most trusted out of the international institutions and the
superpowers
Great Britain US Germany France
7
There is extremely low trust in the Chinese and US governments to tell the truth about the coronavirus pandemic
While opinions on geopolitical questions are highly
polarised on political lines, there is widespread
non-partisan distrust of China
• In all demographics and regions in the four countries
we polled there was majority, and often
overwhelming, distrust in the Chinese government.
• For example, 95% of Conservative voters in Britain do
not trust the Chinese government.
• In the US, 2016 Clinton and Trump voters have very
different views on all of the international institutions
and superpowers we asked about. But there is little
difference in positive sentiment towards China, with
only around 4% of 2016 Trump or Clinton voters
polled believing that China is a force for good in the
world.
Question: How much, if at all, do you trust each of the following to tell the truth about the coronavirus pandemic?
6
32
50
37
3741
4
9
17
60
66
30 31
19
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Generallyfriendly
Generallyhostile
Mix of both Neither
%
People in the US are more likely to view China as hostile
Great Britain US Germany France
8Question: Generally speaking, do you think China is friendly or hostile to the West, or a mix of both, or neither?
Many have mixed feelings about whether China is friendly or hostile to the West, but few think it is generally friendly
13 13
42
31
1511
3934
12
21
39
28
18
12
36 34
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Working tooclose together
The current levelof cooperationbetween the
West and China isabout right
Should beworking more
closely together
Don’t know
Great Britain US Germany France
Questions: Generally speaking, do you think the West and China are working too closely together or should be working more closely together on [scientific research/economic policy] to tackle the
coronavirus pandemic, or is the current level of cooperation between the West and China about right on this issue?
There is support for greater cooperation on scientific research and, to a lesser degree, on economic policy around the pandemic, but also a high degree of uncertainty
Cooperating on ECONOMIC POLICY to tackle the coronavirus pandemic
Cooperating on SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH to tackle the coronavirus pandemic
912
50
29
14 13
43
30
11
20
46
24
13 14
43
30
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1 2 3 4
Series1 Series2 Series3 Series4
17
21
33
45
49
61
52
63
14
20
26
39
44
54
46
53
14
22
25
34
56
62
63
9
16
20
30
39
59
66
65
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
Canada
Italy
Japan
India
US
Saudi Arabia
Russia
China
% oppose
Co
unt
ries
wit
h p
ote
nti
al r
ole
s in
ma
jor
infr
ast
ruct
ure
A majority of people in all countries surveyed opposed China having a major role in national
infrastructure projects
Great Britain US Germany France
• Younger people in the countries we surveyed are
likely to be more supportive of companies from
foreign nations having a major role in national
infrastructure projects.
• People we surveyed are more certain about whether
they support Chinese companies having a major role,
than they are about whether the Chinese government
is a force for good or bad in the world (10% of people
in the UK didn’t know what they thought about China’s
role in infrastructure, compared to 19% who didn’t
know whether they thought China was a force for good
or bad).
• Politics is a likely driver for opposition to Chinese and
other countries’ investment in the US, but is less of a
driver for other countries.
10Question: Generally speaking, to what extent would you support or oppose allowing international companies from each of the following countries to have a major role in infrastructure projects in
Britain?
When asked about international companies having a major role in national infrastructure projects, there is high suspicion of China
15
3338
14
25 27 2621
24
52
12 12
43
32
8
18
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
My country shouldbe doing more to acton its own and less
to coordinate itsresponse with othercountries in tackling
the pandemic
The current balanceis about right for mycountry acting on its
own andcoordinating its
response with othercountries
My country shouldbe doing less to act
on its own and moreto coordinate its
response with othercountries in tackling
the pandemic
Don’t know
Britain and the US are more keen on greater coordination with other countries
Great Britain US Germany France
11Question: People have different views on whether your country should be doing more to act on its own or more to coordinate its response with other countries in tackling the coronavirus pandemic, or whether the current balance is about right. Which of the following
statements best describes your view?
In response to the coronavirus pandemic, people have different views on whether your country should become more independent from the global economy or more integrated with the global economy, or should generally keep the balance it has now between economic
independence and integration with the global economy. Which of the following statements best describes your view? In response to the coronavirus pandemic…
There is no consistent view when it comes to coordination between countries on the pandemic, and less than a quarter of people surveyed want more integration with the global economy
17
40
22 20
28 30
21 22
35
42
915
52
30
612
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1 2 3 4
France has more isolationist views when it comes to the global economy
Series1 Series2 Series3 Series4
14 18 18 17
6044 43 40
19
1827
22
720
1221
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Great Britain US Germany France
Out of the countries we surveyed, only in Britain did a majority of people
perceive the UN as a force for good
Don’t know Generally a force for good
Neither a force for good nor bad Generally a force for bad
11
13
13
13
1
6
2
2
6
11
11
7
69
48
56
47
7
9
11
18
5
13
8
14
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
Great Britain
US
Germany
France
Views on how opinion of the UN has changed since the beginning of the
pandemic
Significantly worsened Slightly worsened
No difference Slightly improved
Significantly improved Don’t know
12Question: Please say whether you think each of the following is generally a force for good or a force for bad in the world, or neither?
Has your opinion of each of the following improved or worsened since the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic, or has it made no difference?
There is majority support in Britain for the UN as a force for good in the world, but the pandemic has changed few opinions
China’s role in the world is changing
14Sources: TBI analysis; IMF Direction of Trade Statistics; The Diplomat; Washington Post; The Globe and Mail; East Asia Forum
China’s economic rise over the past two decades is translating into greater strategic influence
US-China global presence by exports
2019
Larger source of exports
USChinaNo data
2000
Larger source of exports
USChinaNo data
60138
2017 2019
1.3X
Belt and Road InitiativeBRI presence, by # of countries
“China’s geoeconomic offensive across the Eurasian continent through BRI could threaten the very foundations of the United States’ post-WWII hegemony”
New institutions
2016
2014
“… the global governance system has not embraced these new changes and is inadequate in terms of representation”
Pres. Xi Jinping, 2017
Military bases
• China opened 1st overseas base in Djibouti in 2017
• Currently hosts 2K PLA personnel, but reportedly could deploy up to 10K troops (vs 4.5K troops at US Djibouti base)
15
Although China is forecast to become the world’s largest economy, the balance of global power will likely continue favouring the US
Note: SCO military spending also does not include India due to its non-aligned posture, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan due to lack of data. Source: TBI Analysis; PwC, The World in 2050; SIPRI
GDP (MER) in USD TN, 2020 and 2050 (Projected)
16
50
20
34
4
28
20
37
2020 2050
OthersUS
China India ‘Others’ includes Japan, Germany, France, UK, Russia, Australia, Canada, South Korea
30
NATO
8
SCO
Key alliances with current number of Members States
Military spending comparison in USD BN, 2019
261
732
USChina
77
261
SCO (exc. China)*
NATO (exc. US)*
16
China has also significantly deepened and strengthened its economic relationship with Africa
Sources: China-Africa Research Initiative; UN Comtrade
China’s FDI stock in African countries in BN, 2003-2018
46
43
40
35
32
26
22
16
13
9
8
5
3
2
1
0
2011
2007
2018
2013
2016
2017
2015
2014
2009
2012
2010
2008
2006
2005
2004
2003
+35%
US-Africa and China-Africa Trade in USD BN, 2002-2018
0
50
100
150
200
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
US
China
Breakdown of China’s trade with Africa in USD BN, 2002-2018
0
50
100
150
200
20
07
20
03
20
02
20
04
20
09
20
05
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
15
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
16
20
17
20
18
Imports
Exports
17
China is integral to global supply chains and manufacturing, and accounts for an increasingly significant share of global output
Sources: World Integrated Trade Solutions Database; McKinsey Global Institute
Select countries’ share of global exports in %, 2000-2017
4
11
7
4
8
4
12
8
43
7
2
0
5
10
15
UKChina Japan GermanyUS France
2000
2017
Select countries’ share of global imports in %, 2000-2017
3
17
54
75
9
12
3 3
6
3
0
5
10
15
20
China FranceUS Japan Germany UK
2000
2017
Industries with high exposure to Chinese exports
Industries with high exposure to Chinese imports in %, 2013-2017
28 2717
4026 22 19 13
FurnitureElectronics MachineryElectrical
equipment
Textiles and
apparel
Rubber and
plastics
Nonmetallic
minerals
Basic metals
China Rest
16 9 921
12 12 19
ChemicalsMachineryElectronics Electrical
equipment
Mining and
quarrying
Paper and
paper products
Agriculture and
allied sectors
China Rest
China’s share of global exports by industry between 2013 and 2017 (in %)
China’s share of global imports by industry between 2013 and 2017 (in %)
18
China is rising as a leading source of digital innovation, most notably in emerging technologies
Sources: World Intellectual Property Organization; Nikkei Asian Review
Top sources for patent applications, 2012-2019 (in 000’s)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
30
0
60
10
20
40
50
35
5
15
25
45
55
65
US
China
Japan
Germany
South Korea
Top 5 countries for patent applications in select technologies, 2017
AI
Quantum computing
Regenerative medicine
Autonomous driving
Blockchain
Cybersecurity
Drones
Lithium-ion batteries
Virtual reality
Conductive polymers
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5thChina accounted for 49% of total applications while the US
accounted for 20%
19
China seeks to become a global leader in advanced and emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence
Sources: Paulson Institute; Stanford Human-Centred Artificial Intelligence Institute; World Intellectual Property Organization
China’s AI goals under its AI Development Plan Investment in AI
2017
2020
2025
2030
• China’s State Council issues the New Generation Artificial Intelligence Development Plan
• Seeks to make China “the world’s primary AI innovation centre” by 2030
• China among most advanced countries in AI tech• RMB 1.15 TN (~USD 162 BN) in total output from
core AI and AI-related industries• AI market with several globally competitive firms• Pushing breakthroughs in key areas (e.g. intelligent
big data, swarm intelligence)
• China is a leader in some AI tech and achieving key breakthroughs in fundamental AI theories
• RMB 5.4 TN (~USD 762 BN) in total output from core AI and AI-related industries
• AI marketplace for smart cities, manufacturing, health care, agriculture and national defence
• China leads in all AI theories, tech & applications• RMB 11 TN (~USD 1.5 TN) in total output from core
AI and AI-related industries• Domestic marketplace with integrated application
in production segments, social governance and national security and defence
2030
0
5
10
15
20
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
US China IsraelUK Canada
Private investment in AI, (USD BN) “The US and China obviously have stolen a lead. They’re out in-front in Artificial Intelligence, in terms of numbers of applications, and in scientific publications.”
Francis GurryDirector GeneralWorld Intellectual Property Organization
US-China comparison of AI patents in key sectors
14,47213,407
Security
ChinaUS
1,820
1,221
Military
2,562
2,158
Computing in
Government
Number of patents, by AI application fields, 2018
20
Note: Domestic issues: Xinjiang and Uyghurs, Tibet, Hong Kong, and human rights issues; Territorial
disputes: South China Sea, Taiwan, Indo-China border disputes; Trade: China’s trade relationship with
the United States; Technology: Huawei and the competition for technological leadership between the
US and China; BRI: BRI-related expansion of commercial and industrial ties globally
The two most likely scenarios for US-China relations are a “light Cold War” or “great power rivalry” that falls just short of this
Scenario Prob. Description
Cooperation
• Close economic engagement• Some cooperation on global issues• Similar to ~15-20 years ago
Great power rivalry
• US tries to contain China’s rise• But does this on select issues (e.g.
South China Sea/technology)• Cooperation in some areas
Light Cold War
• Continuation/intensification of status quo
• Geo-political contest in Asia• Geo-economic contest worldwide
Full Cold War
• Similar to US-Soviet contest• World split into rival camps• Arms race/economic influence wars• Unlikely given more integrated
diplomatic/econ. structures
Military conflict
War breaks out (probably in East Asia)
Scenario-based assessment of key focus of tensionDomestic
issuesTerritorial disputes
Trade Technology BRI
Legend for Probability
(Prob.)Most likely
Limited impact on issue Greater impact
HighLow .
21
Despite the Cold War analogy’s appeal, China is significantly different from the Soviet Union and will have to be engaged thus
Sources: U.S. Library of Congress; Foreign Affairs; United Nations Statistics Division; US Census Bureau
Economically stronger and better integrated Implications of China’s rise as a global power
• China effectively converts its economic strength into strategic influence, usually at the cost of the United States
• China has deepened economic ties and become the top trading partner with more than two-thirds of world, most notably among emerging economies
• China is emerging as a global leader in several emerging and key sectors, such as advanced technology
A challenging geopolitical environment?
• China’s rise is central to the continued prosperity of the United States and its partners
• Chinese factories are the backbone of the global economy and deeply intertwined with global supply chains and manufacturing
• China’s role as a leading source of digital innovation could play an integral role in the global advancement of key technologies, such as AI
An indispensable partner?
1
16
Soviet Union (1979)
China (2018)
Trade as a share of US total trade, %
In GDP (PPP) terms, China overtook the
US in 201743
66
China (2018)Soviet Union (1973)
GDP (current US$) as a share of US GDP, %
A more stable country
China is one state with common history and civilisational values while the Soviet Union was a group of states held together by force and power
“Soviet power, like the capitalist world of its conception, bears within it the seeds of its own decay”
George Kennan
A distinct competition
• No emergence of an arms race• Lack of proxy conflict between the US and China• No ideological delineation of country blocs
(Peak year) (Peak year)
22
Going forward, the West should adopt a strategic framework to effectively engage with China
Sources: Foreign Affairs; Foreign Affairs
Cooperate Compete Confront
Reserve space to cooperate with China to benefit the global commons and ensure long-term stability• China is likely to be a major power
and a key decision-maker in global affairs
• Cooperating with China is critical to addressing key transnational challenges:
• Be willing and prepared to protect the international community’s norms, interests and values
• Speak out against China’s human rights violations as well as its undermining of civil liberties within China (e.g. Hong Kong, Uyghurs)
• Call out China’s aggressive actions against neighbouring states as well as against Western allies and partners
Preserving the West’s competitive edge in technology and innovation must be prioritised• Ambitious and focused public
investments in R&D• Greater government support to
incentivise innovation • Attract the best and the brightest
minds from around the world• Collaborate with like-minded
partners:• Synergise R&D efforts• Agree global standards and
norms on sensitive use of tech• Reduce dependencies on China
Illustrative examples• Framework to combat future
pandemics• Sharing data on diseases for faster
cures• Coordinating economic policy