HAS Individual Assignment Asuka

8/8/2019 HAS Individual Assignment Asuka

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Month Year End of Month Date VN_Index10 2010 29 10/29/2010 452.6

9 2010 30 9/30/2010 454.58 2010 31 8/31/2010 455.17 2010 30 7/30/2010 493.96 2010 30 6/30/2010 507.15 2010 31 5/31/2010 507.44 2010 29 4/29/2010 542.43 2010 31 3/31/2010 499.22 2010 26 2/26/2010 496.91 2010 29 1/29/2010 482

12 2009 31 12/31/2009 494.811 2009 30 11/30/2009 504.110 2009 30 10/30/2009 587.1

9 2009 30 9/30/2009 580.98 2009 31 8/31/2009 546.87 2009 31 7/31/2009 466.86 2009 30 6/30/2009 448.35 2009 29 5/29/2009 411.64 2009 29 4/29/2009 321.63 2009 31 3/31/2009 280.72 2009 27 2/27/2009 245.71 2009 23 1/23/2009 303.2

12 2008 31 12/31/2008 315.611 2008 28 11/28/2008 314.7

10 2008 31 10/31/2008 347.19 2008 30 9/30/2008 456.78 2008 29 8/29/2008 539.17 2008 31 7/31/2008 451.46 2008 30 6/30/2008 399.45 2008 30 5/30/2008 414.14 2008 29 4/29/2008 522.43 2008 31 3/31/2008 516.92 2008 29 2/29/2008 663.31 2008 31 1/31/2008 844.1

12 2007 28 12/28/2007 92711 2007 30 11/30/2007 972.410 2007 31 10/31/2007 1065.1

9 2007 28 9/28/2007 1046.98 2007 31 8/31/2007 908.47 2007 31 7/31/2007 9086 2007 29 6/29/2007 1024.75 2007 31 5/31/2007 1081.5


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4 2007 25 4/25/2007 923.93 2007 30 3/30/2007 1071.32 2007 28 2/28/2007 1137.71 2007 31 1/31/2007 1041.3

12 2006 29 12/29/2006 751.811 2006 30 11/30/2006 633.110 2006 31 10/31/2006 511.5

9 2006 29 9/29/2006 526.78 2006 31 8/31/2006 491.27 2006 31 7/31/2006 422.46 2006 30 6/30/2006 515.65 2006 31 5/31/2006 538.94 2006 28 4/28/2006 595.53 2006 31 3/31/2006 503.62 2006 28 2/28/2006 390.71 2006 27 1/27/2006 312.3

12 2005 30 12/30/2005 307.511 2005 30 11/30/2005 311.310 2005 31 10/31/2005 307.4

9 2005 30 9/30/2005 289.38 2005 31 8/31/2005 254.57 2005 29 7/29/2005 245.56 2005 30 6/30/2005 246.85 2005 31 5/31/2005 244.24 2005 29 4/29/2005 246.3

3 2005 31 3/31/2005 246.52 2005 28 2/28/2005 235.11 2005 31 1/31/2005 233.3

12 2004 31 12/31/2004 239.311 2004 30 11/30/2004 229.610 2004 29 10/29/2004 232.6

9 2004 30 9/30/2004 233.28 2004 31 8/31/2004 232.47 2004 30 7/30/2004 238.46 2004 30 6/30/2004 249.7

5 2004 31 5/31/2004 2524 2004 29 4/29/2004 264.43 2004 31 3/31/2004 277.42 2004 27 2/27/2004 260.61 2004 30 1/30/2004 214.3

12 2003 31 12/31/2003 166.911 2003 28 11/28/2003 163.910 2003 31 10/31/2003 136.2


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9 2003 30 9/30/2003 139.38 2003 29 8/29/2003 142.77 2003 31 7/31/2003 146.36 2003 30 6/30/2003 152.35 2003 30 5/30/2003 152.24 2003 29 4/29/2003 152.53 2003 31 3/31/2003 145.42 2003 28 2/28/2003 164.61 2003 28 1/28/2003 172.4

12 2002 31 12/31/2002 183.3

Problem 1: Market rate of return = [(HNX-Index t / HNX-Index t-1) - 1]*100Beta of HAS = Covariance(R-VN_Index, R-HAS) / (Standard deviation of R-VN_Inde

Standard deviationVariance

CovarianceCorrelation

BetaSlope

Problem 2: Required rate of return when I plant to buy HAS (denoted: Rj)Based on Capital asset pricing model (CAPM), I can compute RjRj = Rf + (Rm - Rf)*Beta_j with Rf = 11%

Rm-Rf = Mark Market risk premium 13.30%Risk-free rate 11.00% by Analysis and

Beta_j 0.95 Pablo FernandeRequired rate of return (HAS) 0.13

Problem 3: Valuate common stock_HAS

1. Use Discounted Dividend Model

Market selling price of HAS is VND

Year 2005 2006 2007Dividend 1500 1500 1500Growth 0.00% 0.00%

* I have a plan that I will sell HAS after 5 years (2010 - 2014)

[*]: sources fro

Assumption :


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* As we see the historical dividend growth of HAS, I can exp+ First phase lasts 2 years (2010 - 2011)

- Growth rate of first year - Growth rate of second year

+ Second phase lasts 3 years (2012 - 2014)- Growth rate of third year - Growth rate of fourth year - Growth rate of fifth year

Solution:

Time 2009 2010 2011Dividend growth 0.05 0.05

Dividend 1,000 1,050.00 1,102.50Required rate of return 0.13

Dividend 1,050.00 1,102.50Dividend growth g = 0.06

Cash flows 1,050.00 1,102.50Price of common stock (HAS) VND 14,867

2. Use Free Cash Flows ModelMarket selling price of HAS is VND

* I have a plan that I will sell HAS after 5 years (2010 - 2014)* HAS do not pay dividend for shareholders.

Solution:

Time 2010 2011 2012FCF 1,727 1,935 2,167

Required rate of return 0.13Residual value

Cash flows 1,727.43 1,934.72 2,166.89Value of firm (HAS) VND 172,743

Market value of Firm 172,743,000,000Market value of Debt 78,555,000,000

Market value of Equity 94,188,000,000Total shares outstanding 8,000,000

Value of stock (HAS) 11,774

Problem 4:

Assumption :


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I compare present value with market selling price of HAS :DDM: 14,867 > 10,900FCF: 11,774 > 10,900I conclude that I should buy this stock (HAS).


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R-VN_Index HAS R-HAS-0.42 10.9 -11.38-0.13 12.3 -0.81-7.86 12.4 -18.95-2.60 15.3 -3.77-0.06 15.9 6.71-6.45 14.9 -6.888.65 16 22.140.46 13.1 6.503.09 12.3 -3.15

-2.59 12.7 -4.51-1.84 13.3 -7.64

-14.14 14.4 -15.791.07 17.1 3.016.24 16.6 -11.23

17.14 18.7 16.154.13 16.1 -28.768.92 22.6 -0.44

27.99 22.7 55.4814.57 14.6 32.7314.25 11 5.77

-18.96 10.4 -13.33-3.93 12 12.150.29 10.7 -7.76

-9.33 11.6 -10.77

-24.00 13 -10.96-15.28 14.6 -16.0919.43 17.4 1.7513.02 17.1 5.56-3.55 16.2 13.29

-20.73 14.3 -24.341.06 18.9 -10.43

-22.07 21.1 -38.66-21.42 34.4 -29.80

-8.94 49 -15.52

-4.67 58 -36.26-8.70 91 1.111.74 90 9.76

15.25 82 -15.900.04 97.5 10.80

-11.39 88 -14.56-5.25 103 -6.3617.06 110 44.74


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-13.76 76 -19.15-5.84 94 3.879.26 90.5 28.37

38.51 70.5 29.3618.75 54.5 4.8123.77 52 0.97-2.89 51.5 4.257.23 49.4 17.06

16.29 42.2 21.97-18.08 34.6 -35.33

-4.32 53.5 -1.83-9.50 54.5 -14.8418.25 64 11.3028.90 57.5 29.2125.10 44.5 19.30

1.56 37.3 13.72-1.22 32.8 -0.301.27 32.9 3.136.26 31.9 7.77

13.67 29.6 10.043.67 26.9 2.28

-0.53 26.3 1.941.06 25.8 -0.77

-0.85 26 -1.14-0.08 26.3 -2.23

4.85 26.9 4.260.77 25.8 -0.77-2.51 26 -0.764.22 26.2 -8.07

-1.29 28.5 -1.72-0.26 29 0.350.34 28.9 4.33

-2.52 27.7 -5.46-4.53 29.3 -1.01-0.91 29.6 -0.67

-4.69 29.8 2.76-4.69 29 -3.976.45 30.2 -13.71

21.61 35 33.5928.40 26.2 21.86

1.83 21.5 2.8720.34 20.9 10.58-2.23 18.9 -0.53


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-2.38 19 -2.06-2.46 19.4 0.00-3.94 19.4 -1.020.07 19.6 1.55

-0.20 19.3 3.214.88 18.7 -4.10

-11.66 19.5 -2.99-4.52 20.1 -1.47-5.95 20.4 -3.77

21.2

)^2

12.03 15.89144.76 252.64

137.820.730.950.96

t risk premium = 13.3% [*]

Company:a survey with 2,400 answers;_Professor of Corporate Finance

10,900

2008 20091500 1000

0.00% -33.33%

Market Risk Premium used in 2010

-30.00 -20.00-60.00

-40.00

-20.00

0.00

20.00

40.00

60.00

80.00

f(x) = 0.96x - 1.0R = 0.53

Returno

n HAS


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ct its growth as follows:

5%5%

6%6%6%

2012 2013 20140.06 0.06 0.06

1,168.65 1,238.77 1,313.10

1,168.65 1,238.77 1,313.1018,758.50

1,168.65 19,997.27

10,900SalesOperating profitsTaxes

After-tax profitsIncrease in assets

2013 2014 Free Cash Flows2,427 2,718 Sales Growth

Operating profits Growth271,815 Increase in assets Growth

274,241.56 From

Growth of salesSalesOperating profit marginOperating profitsTaxes (25%)


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After-tax profitsAssets-to-sales ratioIncrease in assetsFree Cash Flows


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-10.00 0.00 10.00 20.00 30.00 40.00 50.00

5

R-HASLinear Regression forR-HAS

Return on market


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HASFree Cash Flow Statement

Year 2005 2006 2007 2008

107,224 160,307 152,022 113,1569,523 19,955 19,259 14,2491,201 2,484 5,401 4,079

8,322 17,471 13,858 10,17042,100 (4,228) (16,535)

8,322 (24,629) 18,086 26,7050.50 (0.05) (0.26)1.10 (0.03) (0.26)

(1.10) 2.91the historical FCF and above items growth, I can estimate FCF in the future as follows:

HASFree Cash Flow Statement

Year 2010 2011 2012 2013

0.12 0.12 0.12 0.1294,839 106,220 118,966 133,2420.10 0.10 0.10 0.109,484 10,622 11,897 13,3242,371 2,656 2,974 3,331


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7,113 7,967 8,922 9,9930.53 0.53 0.53 0.535,386 6,032 6,756 7,566

1,727 1,935 2,167 2,427


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nit: million VND2009

84,6787,7961,081

6,715(10,004)

16,719(0.25)(0.45)(0.39)

nit: million VND20140.12

149,2320.1014,9233,731


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11,1920.538,474

2,718

HAS Individual Assignment Asuka

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