GSS Press - Raiffeisen Bank International · 2020-04-14 · GSS Press August 2015 3 TALKING POINT...

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GSS Press | August 2015 1 August 2015 GSS Press Group Securities Services Monthly The Serbian government has taken the gloves off. A deal with the IMF stipulates that public finances are to be straightened out, heavy cuts in government spending in- cluded. Privatizations of state-owned com- panies are one side effect of this ambitious program. What I find truly remarkable is the new, friendly stance that Serbian leaders, sup- ported by the prospect of a future EU mem- bership, have taken up toward the neigh- boring countries in this conflict-ridden part of Europe. I am very pleased to observe how the EU’s founding idea of a peace project is being revoked and applied on the Balkans. This issue of GSS Press gives a profound overview over the fast moving develop- ments in Serbia. The capital market may expect a boost from the upcoming land- mark privatizations, as both Mr. Siniša Krneta, the new CEO of the Belgrade Stock Exchange, and Mr. Zoran Petrovic, CEO of Raiffeisen banka in Belgrade, explained. Ms. Ana Jovanovic, CEO of CRHOV, told us that her organization is busy adopting EU standards for CSDs. The will for reform is evident. Kind regards, Attila Szalay-Berzeviczy Executive Director Head of Group Securities Services ´ ´ In this issue This document is intended for institutional investors only. AT A GLANCE Serbia: A vibrant scene 2 TALKING POINT Zoran Petrovic (CEO of Raiffeisen banka) 3 Ana Jovanovic (CEO of CRHOV) 5 Siniša Krneta (CEO of the Belgrade Stock Exchange) 6 RESEARCH REPORT Preparing for the second IMF review 7 MARKET ROUNDUP 8 CITY BREAK Belgrade 12 HAVE YOU MET Ivana Novakovic 13 CONTACT US 14 IMPRINT & DISCLAIMER 15 ATTILA‘S PHOTO BLOG EVENTS 16 ´ ´ ´ New thinking, new opportunities Serbia Serbia

Transcript of GSS Press - Raiffeisen Bank International · 2020-04-14 · GSS Press August 2015 3 TALKING POINT...

GSS Press | August 2015 1

August 2015

GSS PressGroup Securities Services Monthly

The Serbian government has taken the gloves off. A deal with the IMF stipulates that public finances are to be straightened out, heavy cuts in government spending in-cluded. Privatizations of state-owned com-panies are one side effect of this ambitious program. What I find truly remarkable is the new, friendly stance that Serbian leaders, sup-ported by the prospect of a future EU mem-bership, have taken up toward the neigh-boring countries in this conflict-ridden part of Europe. I am very pleased to observe how the EU’s founding idea of a peace project is being revoked and applied on the Balkans.

This issue of GSS Press gives a profound overview over the fast moving develop-ments in Serbia. The capital market may expect a boost from the upcoming land-mark privatizations, as both Mr. Siniša Krneta, the new CEO of the Belgrade Stock Exchange, and Mr. Zoran Petrovic, CEO of Raiffeisen banka in Belgrade, explained. Ms. Ana Jovanovic, CEO of CRHOV, told us that her organization is busy adopting EU standards for CSDs. The will for reform is evident. Kind regards,

Attila Szalay-Berzeviczy Executive DirectorHead of Group Securities Services

´

´

In this issue

This document is intended forinstitutional investors only.

AT A GLANCE Serbia: A vibrant scene 2 TALKING POINTZoran Petrovic (CEO of Raiffeisen banka) 3 Ana Jovanovic (CEO of CRHOV) 5 Siniša Krneta (CEO of the Belgrade Stock Exchange) 6

RESEARCH REPORT Preparing for the second IMF review 7

MARKET ROUNDUP 8

CITY BREAK Belgrade 12

HAVE YOU MET Ivana Novakovic 13

CONTACT US 14 IMPRINT & DISCLAIMER 15

ATTILA‘S PHOTO BLOG EVENTS 16

´

´

´

New thinking, new opportunities

SerbiaSerbia

GSS Press | August 2015 2

A number of considerable developments both on the political and economic side, have characterized the year 2015 in Ser-bia so far.

After officially launching EU accession talks in January 2014, the authorities were engaged in negotiations to open the talks on the first chapter, which might occur already in 2015. Furthermore, the authorities launched public sector re-forms that include wage and pension cuts in the public sector, privatization (or li-quidation) of state-owned enterprises and streamlining of the public administration under the auspices of the IMF.

The cabinet signed a 3-year IMF stand-by precautionary arrangement worth EUR 1 bn. Despite public reforms being the main obstacle for economic recovery, we be-lieve the local economy will benefit from the ongoing monetary policy easing, low energy prices on the global markets and a recovery in the economy of the euro zone, the country’s key foreign partner.

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Serbia was stable in the first quarter of 2015 (-1.8% yoy), compared to the fourth quar-ter of 2014, supported by the implemen-tation of public cost saving measures. However, the upbeat drift came from ex-ports, imports and investments.

A more encouraging sign came from an upswing in export of all types of machine-ry. Main export products encompass cars and other products from the automotive sector. The country is still struggling with high unemployment, fueled by redundan-cy programs in the public administration

and in state-owned enterprises that will boost the unemployment rate to 23% by the end of 2015.

The key rate cut to a historical low of 6% (compared to 8% in the second quarter of 2014) was bolstered by weak infla-tion (June 2015: 1.9% yoy) but also by a strong EUR/RSD and the expectation that this scenario would revive the credit cycle.

Privatization has set off

The Privatization of the majority state-owned company Telekom is under way and, according to the Prime Minister, the company will not be sold “unless it gets a good price and guarantees that the company, once privatized, will improve operations”. Furthermore, according to a restructuring plan jointly prepared by the World Bank and the Government, state-owned Elektroprivreda Srbije will rather look for a strategic partner that acquires a minority stake.

The national airline, Jat Airways, has teamed up with Etihad Airways. Under a strategic partnership agreement, Eti-had acquired a 49% stake in the Serbian carrier, together with management rights for a period of five years. The rebranding of Jat Airways to Air Serbia came along with a fleet modernization and an expan-sion of the network.

Serbia’s main challenge in the coming period is to fully execute the public sec-tor reform agenda. Also, the government will be busy seeking alternatives for the South Stream gas pipeline project after its cancellation and will have to identify a solution in accordance with the countries in the region.

Ivana NovakovicHead of GSS Serbia

and

Ljiljana Grubic Economic Research

AT A GLANCE

SERBIA A vibrant scene

´

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GSS Press | August 2015 3

TALKING POINT

Mr. Petrovic, could you please share with us your view on the challenges for players on the Serbian capital market? Serbia, as a small and open economy, is making efforts to follow through the imple-mentation of necessary economic reforms, which are designed to ensure stable econo-mic growth, better efficiency and producti-vity and lower unemployment. The fact that these reforms were not implemented earlier has certainly, to a great extent, reflected onto the local capital market.

The Belgrade Stock Exchange is still wai-ting for its first IPO…The majority of participants on the Serbi-an financial market traditionally do not regard the stock exchange as an efficient instrument of capital allocation. The gre-atest number of companies whose stocks are being traded on the stock exchange are there practically by force of law, not by their own free will, which opens a range of open issues relating to business transparen-cy, relationship with investors, information distribution, etc. The preceding period did show some significant changes concerning these topics, but this is still a “forced share-holder market”.

Apart from this, the most valuable sta-te companies are not represented on the stock market. Their expected privatization will be performed by tender and direct negotiations with potential buyers, which implies that the state does not trust in the efficiency of the domestic market.

The Serbian stock exchange is characte-rized by an absence of domestic institutio-nal demand. Total assets of local investment

funds amount to approx. EUR 100 mn, only 1.5% of which pertains to funds that invest into local shares. Banks, pension funds and insurance companies in practice generally do not invest in shares because of strict regu-lations and a conservative attitude. The only remaining source of demand is individual investors, who possess significant foreign currency savings (exceeding EUR 8 bn), but prefer the most conservative investment model – banking deposits. All this is the af-termath of an economic system and cultu-ral pattern that lasted for several decades, with no efficient investment mechanisms of channeling excess funds into securities, and this cannot be rectified overnight. It will take time and constant education at all levels.

On the other hand, the state debt market, as the main pillar of the local financial market, has been characterized by intense development in the recent years. The needs of the state for financing and attractive in-terest rates caught the attention of both lo-cal and international institutional investors. Serbia today has a revenue curve in both RSD and EUR, regular auctions with signi-ficant volumes that attract big institutional names and a Public Debt Administration which strives to further improve and pro-mote the local market through publications and analyses, in accordance with other market participants.

We are proud that Raiffeisen banka has made an invaluable contribution to the development of this market, being one of the most important participants and a re-gular and reliable partner to international financial institutions. Together, great impro-vements were made in the functionality of the market and its transparency. The tasks ahead concern increasing liquidity on the secondary market and in the future, intro-ducing market makers.

What are your expectations regarding the Serbian economy in the medium term?Serious challenges still lie ahead. Serbia must decisively start the reform of the pu-blic sector, of state administration which is too numerous and inefficient and public enterprises that are, to a large extent, not profit-oriented, but perform a social wel-fare function. Moreover, although certain legal improvements were made, especially in the domain of labor law, the overall re-gulatory framework should be made more efficient and business in Serbia should be simplified.

Intense development The CEO of Belgrade-based Raiffeisen banka, Zoran Petrović, concedes that a lot is being done to increase the attractiveness of the local market, but there is still a long way to go, as he explained to GSS Press

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GSS Press | August 2015 4

TALKING POINT

What is your long-term view on the Serbi-an banking industry?The banking industry will, quite likely, also be subject to changes. Serbia’s market is too small for the 29 banks that are doing business here, all the more so because only about ten of them are profitable. We expect that certain commercial banks will re-examine their business philosophy in the forthcoming period and that there will be consolidations.

What are the administrative hurdles for foreign investors compared to other coun-tries in the region?If we intend to reduce administrative barri-ers for non-residents in Serbia, we should enable more efficient tax collection, and, on the other hand, simplified procedures at the Tax Administration. The local mar-ket is less attractive to investors than the markets of neighboring countries, among other things because of the tax treatment of securities.

One prerequisite for starting to cooperate with foreign investors is a mandatory tax attorney, both for obtaining a tax identifica-

tion number, as well as for other tax duties. But a tax attorney means additional costs for foreign investors.

I would like to add that, at the moment, the most attractive instruments for foreign investors are debt securities issued by the Republic of Serbia – and they are exempt from all tax duties.

How does Raiffeisen banka in Serbia support the further development of GSS?The fact that developing the GSS segment is an important and long-term strategic goal of RBI on all the 15 markets where it conducts business is a significant ad-vantage for the development of this seg-ment locally as well. Standardization on a group level from the very beginning was one of the business priorities of GSS products and I have to say that we were working intensively to overcome the limita-tions and shortcomings of the local market and to enable quality service.

We are glad that our efforts on the constant improvement of this service have been re-cognized by both clients and the professio-

nal public, so that we received the highest marks in prestigious industry magazines, where service users voice their opinion.

Our plan is to continue with this strategy. Our team of professionals, one of the best in our market, who are devoted to develo-ping the GSS business, is our greatest com-petitive advantage.

Apart from this, further development and implementation of solutions for foreign and local investors depends also on the imple-mentation of relevant legal stipulations and movements in the local market, but also in the regional markets.

We are pleased to see how some neighbo-ring markets are forming the GSS service into a completely new banking product. We believe these positive trends will spill over into our market. This way, after all the necessary prerequisites are met, its full im-plementation will be possible here as well.

GSS Press | August 2015 5

TALKING POINT

Ms. Jovanovic, what keeps the market participants busy at the moment? Developments on the capital market large-ly depend on the general macroeconomic situation. In this context, I expect that im-plementing structural reforms, as well as the stand-by arrangement with the IMF, will contribute to the growth of foreign investment and thus improve the develop-ment of the capital market. Furthermore, the privatization process is expected to be completed by the end of the year; and the privatization of large companies will be carried out by means of public auctions as stipulated in the Decree of the Govern-ment of the Republic of Serbia.

We also expect further development of financing local governments through mu-nicipal bonds as one of more favorable methods of financing. Following the ad-option of the relevant law, Serbia’s public debt arising from unpaid foreign currency savings to the citizens of the republics of the former SFR Yugoslavia will be regulated through the issue of tradable government bonds. Considering the fact that the market of agricultural products shows the need for the issuance and trading with commodity derivatives, I think that introducing this type of financial instruments will be one of the novelties on the capital market of the Repu-blic of Serbia in the coming period. We are curious to learn about the most recent major developments at Central Depository.To ensure harmonization with the requi-rements of the regulations governing the central depositories (CSDR), the Central Securities Registry plans a shift to a shor-tened settlement cycle (T+2) by the end of this year.

In this respect I would like to mention in particular that even in its current opera-tions the Central Registry may conduct, upon request of the member in terms of stock exchange transactions, clearing and settlement in the period from T+0 to T+2, whereas for OTC transactions the prevai-ling settlement cycle is T+1. The adequa-te normative acts and program solutions, which will allow this change, are present-ly being prepared.

Furthermore, in the coming period I expect inter-bank repo agreements to materialize after the NBS harmonized the text of the framework agreement on inter-bank repo transactions with the Association of Serbi-an Banks last year. The Central Securities Registry was actively involved and crea-ted the technical conditions for conducting such transactions. The Central Securities Registry also signed a new cooperation agreement with the Belgrade Stock Ex-change at the end of the last year, setting the conditions for further improvement of the so far successful cooperation between these two very important institutions of the capital market.

How do you see the CSD’s key role in further preparing the Serbian capital market for the challenges ahead?One of the major novelties on the capital market will certainly be the introduction of the central counterparty concept (CCP) for clearing and settlement of financial in-struments. At present, the legislation of the Republic of Serbia is not harmonized with the European regulations in this field.

Practice shows that there is huge justifica-tion for establishing and developing this element within the current Central Securiti-

es Registry among the countries in the re-gion. In this context, the Central Securities Registry is ready to provide, in terms of staff as well as organizationally and tech-nically (IT Infrastructure), the necessary conditions for the functioning of the CCP. I specially stress that clearing and settle-ment of OTC derivatives represents a very complex and demanding process which requires creating the relevant conditions prior to EU accession.

What is your expectation regarding Euroclearing? As a country in the wings to join the Euro-pean Union, the Republic of Serbia is ob-liged to harmonize its regulations with the acquis communautaire. In this respect, I expect that the conditions for cooperating with other clearing houses and joining the Euroclearing system will be created in the coming period.

New initiativesThe Central Securities Depository and Clearing House of Serbia (CRHOV) is prepared to adopt EU standards, as GSS Press found out from talking to its CEO, Ana Jovanović.

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GSS Press | August 2015 6

TALKING POINT

Mr. Krneta, how would you describe the current state of the securities market in Serbia?Objectively, the situation in the Serbian ca-pital market is very difficult. I dare say that this is the most difficult period for the local market in the last 15 years, i.e., from the beginning of the so-called market reforms. I make this statement due to the fact that the Serbian capital market has not been put to any economic function or equation, neither as a variable nor a constant. So far the capital market has only been assigned crumbs remaining after the privatization of dominantly unattractive business entities. Privatizations of possible blue chips have occurred far away from the capital market, and until a few years ago, even an IPO was unenforceable in a way it is understood by modern societies and economies. If the above said alone is taken as true, then with respect for the readers of this pu-blication, not many words should be spent in reaching the conclusion that, under such circumstances, it would not be possible to develop the capital market to levels above those currently achieved. Comparative to the region, the level of development is solid. For those with a lack of ambition, or socie-ties and economies with no need for finan-cing the growth with non-debt capital, that level could be nourished for a certain period of time, but not for too long.

Which shortcomings have you identified?The key flaw of the Serbian capital market is its modest range of quality investment alter-natives. The Stock Exchange can affect the quality of its own infrastructure, from regula-tion to IT support. In terms of infrastructure, the Belgrade Stock Exchange has done what it could do, and I believe that has been re-cognized. Furthermore, the Stock Exchange has significantly contributed to the increase in quality of information for the investment

public, to the electronization of business procedures as well as to the perception of the relation quality of reporting vs. listing. However, the current concept of the Serbian capital market is reaching its limits. As such, it is unsustainable in the medium term. In this respect, I could say that the ambitions of the Belgrade Stock Exchange are great today because it has an ambition to become an essential element of the financial market, the economic system and ultimately the society in Serbia. A prerequisite in an attempt to achieve this is trust. The Belgrade Stock Exchange, per se, has built a reputation of a reliable insti-tution. Over the past 15 years it has never been involved in any activities that could have impaired the trust in stock market pro-cedures, strictly implementing the written rules, even when it could see the need for amendments, with an emphasis on equidi-stance to absolutely all market participants. Therefore, trust gives the Belgrade Stock Ex-change the right to have great ambitions for the future.

What could be done, in your view, to strengthen the Belgrade Stock Exchange?What I like about this question is that I understand it as: what could be done to strengthen Serbia, or the Serbian economy? The Serbian economy and its capital market have come to a point of exhaustion with re-spect to the existing concept. The expiration of two concepts which are “not on speaking terms” with each other should produce a new and unique one. And if that new sche-me has no room for the capital market, this would prove the new concept of the Serbian economy wrong. So, why do I take pleasure in this question? Because the Belgrade Stock Exchange will no longer be a lonely Don Quixote fighting for its place in the Serbian financial market. When you are not alone in striving for so-

mething better, the struggle will be easier and the outcome better than expected.

What does the Belgrade Stock Exchange need? First of all, it needs a series of IPOs. I believe that at first there has to be an IPO of a large, currently majority state-owned or semi-state company. If not Telekom Srbija then EPS, Komercijalna banka or Dunav osiguranje, maybe Putevi Srbije. The state should be first in order to present the IPO as a model and what it serves for. Above all, this could showcase a counterpart to debt financing. Also, the government of a country is the only body which could, at an acceptable speed, alter regulations which might prevent com-panies from going public. Once that happens, everything else requi-red for strengthening the stock exchange will come by itself and will only depend on the ability of those managing the relevant stock exchange.

What is your forecast for the Serbian capi-tal market over a medium term?The business environment of the Belgrade Stock Exchange makes every forecast un-grateful. My job, as is the job of each in-dividual employed in the Belgrade Stock Exchange, is to make a series of small steps which would lead us, in the medium term, to the first victories in the fight for a new stock exchange. Each new listing will be conside-red a success. Great victories would include the listing of government bonds, finally. The Belgrade Stock Exchange is now at a cross-roads. We have just opted for a new direc-tion. If the choice was good, the Belgrade Stock Exchange will be mirroring the new Serbian economy within 5 to 7 years. In this context, I see the Belgrade Stock Exchange as a desirable investment destination.

Great ambitionsGSS Press had the opportunity to talk to the newly appointed CEO of the Belgrade Stock Exchange, Mr. Siniša Krneta

GSS Press | August 2015 7

RESEARCH REPORT

Preparing for the second IMF reviewprovided by Raiffeisen bank a.d., Belgrade

29Please note the risk noti cations and explanations at the end of this document

Preparing for the second IMF review

Serbia

First IMF review demanded stricter reform agenda implementation Low in ation and strong EUR/RSD supported aggressive monetary policy easing in H1 Investments reviving and Belgrade Waterfront Project to back GDP recovery Yields on the downside supported by the IMF deal

112

114

116

118

120

122

124

126

128

Jun-13 Dec-13 Jun-14 Dec-14 Jun-15 Dec-15

EUR/RSD (eop)

Real GDP (% yoy)

Source: Thomson Reuters, RBI/Raiffeisen RESEARCH

Exchange rate development

EUR/RSD: 5y high 123.67, 5y low 96.6Source: Bloomberg, Raiffeisen RESEARCH

Forecast

Fore

cast

-12

-8

-4

0

4

8

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

e

2016

f

Real GDP (% yoy)Industrial output (% yoy, r.h.s.)

Key economic gures and forecasts

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015e 2016f

Nominal GDP (EUR bn) 29.8 33.4 31.7 34.3 33.2 33.7 35.6

Real GDP (% yoy) 1.0 1.4 -1.0 2.6 -1.8 0.0 2.5

Industrial output (% yoy) 2.5 2.1 -2.9 5.5 -6.5 1.5 3.5

Unemployment rate (avg, %) 19.2 23.0 23.9 22.1 22.0 23.0 22.0

Nominal industrial wages (% yoy) 10.0 5.0 1.5 1.5 4.0 5.0 4.0

Producer prices (avg, % yoy) 12.7 14.2 5.6 3.6 1.3 2.0 3.0

Consumer prices (avg, % yoy) 6.3 11.3 7.8 7.8 2.9 2.0 4.0

Consumer prices (eop, % yoy) 10.3 7.0 12.2 2.2 1.7 3.5 4.5

General budget balance (% of GDP) -4.9 -4.8 -6.8 -5.5 -6.6 -6.0 -4.8

Public debt (% of GDP) 43.5 44.2 55.9 58.8 68.8 75.3 78.5

Current account balance (% of GDP) -6.3 -8.6 -11.5 -6.1 -6.0 -5.9 -5.6

Official FX reserves (EUR bn) 10.0 12.1 10.9 11.2 9.9 11.4 12.0

Gross foreign debt (% of GDP) 79.8 72.2 81.1 75.3 78.3 78.3 75.6

EUR/RSD (avg) 103.0 102.0 113.0 113.1 117.3 122.2 125.8

USD/RSD (avg) 77.8 73.3 88.0 85.2 88.5 110.1 115.4

Source: Thomson Reuters, RBI/Raiffeisen RESEARCH

The recovery in investment stemming from the modernisation of railways and coal mine plants, together with the start of the United Arab Emirates and government joint investments in the EUR 3.5 bn Belgrade Waterfront project construction, will be supportive for the economic recovery from H2 2015. FIAT vehicle exports might also positively contribute to GDP once the EUR/RSD starts to weaken. The latter we expect to see from late summer after the US Fed shifts its monetary pol-icy and the NBS allows the dinar to weaken, amidst significant widening of the foreign trade deficit. Following the aggressive rate cut in H1 the NBS will take a more cautious stance after in ation resumes following the 12% electricity price hike on 1 August and the EUR/RSD exchange rate starts to depreciate.Given that the primary non-consolidated budget surplus in Jan-Apr/2015 is a function of the implementation of measures which are limited in terms of their duration, we view the plans of the Prime Minister to raise public sector wages in 2015 as being premature. The tough measures are yet to come i.e. a redun-dancy programme in public administration and creating the working group for the three largest state-owned chemical firms, which are the major debtors to the state-held natural gas company Srbijagas. The IMF was strict in the first review, as the cabinet missed out on complying with two requirements that will be met during summer ahead of the second review. The Public Debt Management is well prepared for the shift in the US Fed’s monetary policy and succeeded in refinancing 73.1% of the outstanding portfolio (EUR 2.8 bn) by mid-June. How-ever, the incredible downward move in yields supported by non-residents’ com-fort zone after the IMF deal was struck, and the RSD liquidity of huge local play-ers makes the yield curve overvalued, given the still high scal risks. We believe that the room for further yield declines has narrowed, although the bonds still of-fer a nice risk-reward profile in a zero interest rate environment.

Financial analyst: Ljiljana Grubic, Raiffeisenbank a.d., Belgrade

29Please note the risk noti cations and explanations at the end of this document

Preparing for the second IMF review

Serbia

First IMF review demanded stricter reform agenda implementation Low in ation and strong EUR/RSD supported aggressive monetary policy easing in H1 Investments reviving and Belgrade Waterfront Project to back GDP recovery Yields on the downside supported by the IMF deal

112

114

116

118

120

122

124

126

128

Jun-13 Dec-13 Jun-14 Dec-14 Jun-15 Dec-15

EUR/RSD (eop)

Real GDP (% yoy)

Source: Thomson Reuters, RBI/Raiffeisen RESEARCH

Exchange rate development

EUR/RSD: 5y high 123.67, 5y low 96.6Source: Bloomberg, Raiffeisen RESEARCH

Forecast

Fore

cast

-12

-8

-4

0

4

8

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

e

2016

f

Real GDP (% yoy)Industrial output (% yoy, r.h.s.)

Key economic gures and forecasts

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015e 2016f

Nominal GDP (EUR bn) 29.8 33.4 31.7 34.3 33.2 33.7 35.6

Real GDP (% yoy) 1.0 1.4 -1.0 2.6 -1.8 0.0 2.5

Industrial output (% yoy) 2.5 2.1 -2.9 5.5 -6.5 1.5 3.5

Unemployment rate (avg, %) 19.2 23.0 23.9 22.1 22.0 23.0 22.0

Nominal industrial wages (% yoy) 10.0 5.0 1.5 1.5 4.0 5.0 4.0

Producer prices (avg, % yoy) 12.7 14.2 5.6 3.6 1.3 2.0 3.0

Consumer prices (avg, % yoy) 6.3 11.3 7.8 7.8 2.9 2.0 4.0

Consumer prices (eop, % yoy) 10.3 7.0 12.2 2.2 1.7 3.5 4.5

General budget balance (% of GDP) -4.9 -4.8 -6.8 -5.5 -6.6 -6.0 -4.8

Public debt (% of GDP) 43.5 44.2 55.9 58.8 68.8 75.3 78.5

Current account balance (% of GDP) -6.3 -8.6 -11.5 -6.1 -6.0 -5.9 -5.6

Official FX reserves (EUR bn) 10.0 12.1 10.9 11.2 9.9 11.4 12.0

Gross foreign debt (% of GDP) 79.8 72.2 81.1 75.3 78.3 78.3 75.6

EUR/RSD (avg) 103.0 102.0 113.0 113.1 117.3 122.2 125.8

USD/RSD (avg) 77.8 73.3 88.0 85.2 88.5 110.1 115.4

Source: Thomson Reuters, RBI/Raiffeisen RESEARCH

The recovery in investment stemming from the modernisation of railways and coal mine plants, together with the start of the United Arab Emirates and government joint investments in the EUR 3.5 bn Belgrade Waterfront project construction, will be supportive for the economic recovery from H2 2015. FIAT vehicle exports might also positively contribute to GDP once the EUR/RSD starts to weaken. The latter we expect to see from late summer after the US Fed shifts its monetary pol-icy and the NBS allows the dinar to weaken, amidst significant widening of the foreign trade deficit. Following the aggressive rate cut in H1 the NBS will take a more cautious stance after in ation resumes following the 12% electricity price hike on 1 August and the EUR/RSD exchange rate starts to depreciate.Given that the primary non-consolidated budget surplus in Jan-Apr/2015 is a function of the implementation of measures which are limited in terms of their duration, we view the plans of the Prime Minister to raise public sector wages in 2015 as being premature. The tough measures are yet to come i.e. a redun-dancy programme in public administration and creating the working group for the three largest state-owned chemical firms, which are the major debtors to the state-held natural gas company Srbijagas. The IMF was strict in the first review, as the cabinet missed out on complying with two requirements that will be met during summer ahead of the second review. The Public Debt Management is well prepared for the shift in the US Fed’s monetary policy and succeeded in refinancing 73.1% of the outstanding portfolio (EUR 2.8 bn) by mid-June. How-ever, the incredible downward move in yields supported by non-residents’ com-fort zone after the IMF deal was struck, and the RSD liquidity of huge local play-ers makes the yield curve overvalued, given the still high scal risks. We believe that the room for further yield declines has narrowed, although the bonds still of-fer a nice risk-reward profile in a zero interest rate environment.

Financial analyst: Ljiljana Grubic, Raiffeisenbank a.d., Belgrade

SERBIA

Raiffeisen bank a.d. Belgrade

Financial analyst: Ljiljana Grubic, Raiffeisen bank a.d., Belgrade

Raiffeisen BANK d.d.Bosna i Hercegovina

GSS Press | August 2015 8

CDCP launched DVP settlement of primary auctions

In line with the harmonization of settlement cycles in primary auctions within the EU, the Czech bond market has adopted T+2 beginning 2015. With the July auction, the CDCP has introdu-ced a new amendment: The CDCP, together with the Ministry of Finance, have agreed on a more efficient settlement process, adopting the DVP principle in replacement to previously applied one-sided instructions.

Whilst previously all primary auctions of government and corpo-rate bonds had to be settled separately via special paper forms, CDCP members, from now on, can settle their instructions of the primary auctions deals on a DVP basis in the same way as other instructions. The Czech National Bank enters the settlement process as the primary auction administrator and matches instructions with dealers or their cus-todians in the CDCP. Thus, manual inputs and operational risks have been significantly mitigated without any major system impacts or additional costs for market participants.

Our viewDVP settlement for primary auctions is a smart and simple solution to increase market efficiency.

Vit Cermák, Head of GSS Czech Republic CZECH REPUBLICˇ

MARKET ROUNDUP

Spotlight news

OTC clearing in Poland

The first OTC derivatives transaction cleared through a CCP in the Polish market was executed at the end of May this year and clearing volumes in this asset class have been steadily growing ever since.

Central clearing of OTC transactions was one of the objectives discussed by the G20 in 2009, aiming to increase transparency and limit credit risk in the OTC derivatives markets. The agreed resolutions were then converted into new regulations, Dodd

Frank in the US and the European Market Infrastructure Regulation (EMIR) in the EU. One of the requirements of EMIR was to lay additional requirements on Central Counterparties in order to ensure the safety of OTC transactions clearing. KDPW_CCPs was the third CCP that received authorization from ESMA, confirming its readiness to offer such clearing services.

Currently, contracts denominated in Polish zloty are not subject to the clearing obligation, however, they are among the contracts that are recognized as systemically important. On 15 July, ESMA closed yet another consultation on the draft regulatory technical standards

POLANDRadek Ignatowicz, Head of GSS Poland

CZ: Historical CDCP recordsThe Czech Central Securities Re-gistry (CDCP), a subsidiary of the Prague Stock Exchange, has an-nounced that effective 1 July only historical data not older than 1 Ja-nuary 2003 can be provided. This measure is in line with the Capital Markets Act 256/2004, which stipu-lates duty of the central depository to keep historical data on its records for a period of 12 years after the end of the year, in which the ori-ginal record had been made. The same Act stipulates a duty to report from the database upon request of authorized entities.

All historical data older than 2010 has been taken over from the state-owned SCP (Stredisko cennych pa-piru), which was the central databa-se of securities before the launch of the CDCP. The SCP database was acquired by the UNIVYC, a subsidi-ary of the Prague Stock Exchange, which was previously covering functions of settlement and clearing house in the Czech market.

GSS Press | August 2015 9

MARKET ROUNDUP

Spotlight newsestablishing a clearing obligation on additional classes of OTC interest rate derivatives that were not included in the first RTS on the clearing obligation for interest rate swaps. The additional contracts include other currency-denominated instruments which, among others, include fixed-to-float interest rate swaps and forward rate agreements denominated in PLN. Although PLN contracts are not yet required to be centrally cleared by ESMA, earlier this year the Polish FSA (PFSA) issued a recommendation to market participants encouraging them to start clearing OTC transactions through the CCP as of 1 July 2015.

So far, 13 out of 15 clearing participants are active in OTC clearing. The contracts deno-minated in Polish zloty and cleared by KDPW_CCP are: Overnight Index Swaps (OIS), Forward Rate Agreements (FRA), Interest Rate Swaps (IRS) and since its commencement there have been no issues with the service. The CCP also offers clearing Basis Swaps, REPOs and sell/buy-back transactions on Polish Treasury bonds and other services such as addi-tional reports, trade repository reporting (as a standard). Currently, OTC transactions are offered in PLN only, however, clearing in EUR has also been developed and is currently pending for regulatory approval.

Our viewUntil now, interest in OTC derivatives clearing conducted via KDPW_CCP has been shown by local banks solely, however, if the service achieves a critical mass, foreign participants may also express their interest, which would generate further volumes. Recent informa-tion on a possible regulatory solution regarding interoperability between CCPs in this area may also prove supportive in terms of volumes in the long run.

Moreover, what is purely a large banks’ game as of now, may also evolve to include smaller banks and non-banking players. In their project, the KDPW_CCP team have fore-seen, and developed, a client clearing solution, which allows a clearing member to open additional segregated or omnibus accounts for its clients who are no direct participants of the CCP. Despite the fact that no clearing member has used this service thus far, it is going to be an interesting option for banks willing to offer client clearing in the OTC space. This would take banks’ clearing services to a new, unexplored territory.

ROMANIAAndrei Mezdrea, Head of GSS Romania

Flexible settlement cycle on BSE

The Romanian Central Securities Depository, Depozitarul Central S.A. (CSD), has announced the implementation of a more flexible settlement cycle with respect to trades performed on Bucharest Stock Exchange’s (BSE) DEAL segment. Starting 10 July, market participants can opt for T+0, T+1, or T+2 settlement cycles.The DEAL market is an auxiliary market of the regular BSE market, where transactions can be freely negotiated by the parties. DEAL is intended for trading in large volume of securities as BSE estab-

lishes a minimum transaction value for this market.

RO: Debate over Fiscal CodeEarlier this year, the Romanian Government has published an upda-ted version of the Fiscal Code, int-roducing several reductions of taxes and social contributions, for public consultation.

The law stipulates, among other things, an ambitious reduction of the VAT (from currently 24% to 20% in 2016 and 18% in 2018), of the general tax rate (from 16% to 14% starting 2019) and of the social se-curity contributions (from 10.5% for employees, to 7.5% and from 15.8% for employers to 13.5%, starting 2016). It has been approved by the Parliament in June and was sent to the President for promulgation. The President of Romania, Mr. Klaus Iohannis, and the main opposition party, the Liberals, have criticised the new Fiscal Code on the grounds that the proposed fiscal relaxation measures are not counterbalanced by a proper identification of financi-al sources to offset the impact on the forthcoming budgets.

The President’s decision to return the Fiscal Code to the Parliament for re-examination can delay the promulgation of the new law but cannot stop it. We do not foresee major changes being adopted by the ruling majority following to the re-examination process.

GSS Press | August 2015 10

MARKET ROUNDUP

The main characteristics of these types of trades are the following:- For DEAL trades with the same settlement date as the trade date (T+0), the trades shall be confirmed within same date, but no later than 14:45 pm*;

- For DEAL trades with settlement date T+1 and T+2, participants shall change the implicit gross settlement session (1st gross settlement session, S1), the latest on Settlement Day - 1, 8:15* pm for 2nd (S2), 3rd (S3) and 4th (S4) gross settlement session;

- For DEAL trades with settlement date T+0, participants shall change the implicit gross sett-lement session (S1), the latest on settlement date, 1:05* pm for S3 and S4;

- All DEAL trades with settlement date registered at DC after 1:05 pm*, shall be settled in S4.*local time – EET hours

Participants could either operate themselves the change of gross settlement session or send instructions to DC, requesting DC to perform the change in their name.

The cut-off times for sending instructions to CSD are:- For DEAL trades with settlement date T+1 and T+2, the latest on D-1, 8:15 pm;- For DEAL trades with settlement date T, the latest on D, 12:55 pm.

The DC’s risk management rules do not apply for DEAL trades settled on gross basis.

Our viewFlexible settlement cycles could boost the trading volumes shortly, while they function as additional instruments for CSD‘s settlement risk management alternatively.

Implementation of AIFMD

With a delay of over two years from the EU transposition deadline (22 July 2013), the Alternative Investment Fund Managers Directive (AIFMD) no. 2011/61/EU has been finally transposed into Romanian legislation with the publication of Law No. 74/2015.

The Romanian Financial Supervision Authority (FSA) is the designated competent authority for AIFM supervision and it is the FSA’s responsibility to issue secondary legislation detailing the requirements for both alternative investment funds and their managers. In mid-July, the FSA has approved Regulation no. 10/2015, addressing the functioning of alternative investment funds’ managers, while the rules for alternative investment funds authorization and functioning are still missing. Local investment managers and professional associations are intensively lobbying for the completion of the secondary legislation, as the industry is impacted by new rules which need to be absorbed by the market in an even shorter period due to local authorities’ delay in transposition of European obligation into national laws.

Please be advised that the most important issuers on the Romanian market (e.g. Fondul Pro-prietatea and the five SIFs) are also impacted by AIFMD’s strict regulations.

Our viewAlong with changes imposed by the AIFM Directive, Romanian firms have been given an important opportunity to keep up with European competitors. While the delay is significant in the Romanian case, the winners will not just be those who meet the deadline, but those who have efficiently planned for the changes in order to operate in a more competitive and profitable way.

Spotlight news

HR: EU family member since 2 yearsBy accessing the EU and integrating into the single European market, Croatia has made strong progress. During the first two years of mem-bership, there have been obvious changes in almost all segments of the economy.

With foreign direct investments of around HRK 3 bn, the investment climate has improved while tourism and industrial production have indi-cated great results against the pre-vious year. Citizens’ personal con-sumption has been growing for nine months in a row, which has not been registered since 2007.

The positive effects are reflected in the ESI (European Stability Initiative) index, which scores 121.8 points and confirms the improving trend over the last few months.

GSS Press | August 2015 11

MARKET ROUNDUP

Privatization: ready for take-off

In 2015- 2017, the Cabinet of Ministers plans to sell 302 state-owned entities. The main targets include Centerenergo (energy-distributing company), the Odessa port plant, 6 regional energy companies and other corporations covering energy, oil, agricul-ture, transportation, stevedoring, gas, construction, chemicals.Minority stakes (below 50%) will be sold through the local stock exchanges, while buyers of the controlling holdings will be ap-proached exclusively through open auctions. The State Property Fund plans to invite investment banks for advisory in an effort to

extend the list of potential buyers as well as to facilitate the process.

Currently, the companies on the list shall undergo the process of pre-sale preparation. Where necessary, the entities will be converted into joint-stock companies. According to the government’s strategic plan, all state-owned companies will be transformed within 3 years: the process shall begin with the companies identified for privatization and those with considerable fiscal risks.

Referring to government officials, Ukraine has not seen such a large-scale privatization in 10 years. The idea is to attract high-quality foreign investment to the public sector, rather than selling the assets at dumping prices to former Ukrainian oligarchs. Companies registered in off-shore zones, prosecuted by FATF, belonging to persons and entities from sanction lists, as well as companies with a government stake of 25% and above, will not be admitted to the privatization process. Disclosure of final beneficiaries of a potential buyer will be another important pre-condition for participation.

Our viewPrivatization will attract investors. The state-owned strategic enterprises badly need modernization of their fixed assets and new technologies – something the government has no resources for. Transferring the entities into private ownership should cover these necessities and help the enterprises strengthen their competitiveness against the global economy.

UKRAINEBogdana Yefremova, Head of GSS Ukraine

GSS Press | August 2015 12

Not many cities can boast of being situa-ted on the confluence of two great rivers, the Danube and the Sava. This unique geo-graphic location provided the backdrop to a place that has been alive for several thousand years, witnessing rampaging and destruction on a large scale throughout its history, but always vital enough to rise from its ashes like Phoenix.

Following its fate, from the medieval indepen-dent Serbian state through several centuries of Ottoman rule, bordering on the Austro-Hungarian Empire, up to the latest unfolding of events in recent history, it is no wonder Belgrade is considered to be the European gateway where the East meets the West.

The city can trace its roots back to the anci-ent Scordisc tribes that settled in this area well before Roman times and called the place Sin-didun, the earliest recorded name of the settle-ment that was to become Belgrade.

Pobednik – The Victorious Kalemegdan fortress represents the heart of the military compound from where the city slowly spread through centuries. The monument of “The Victorious“ is the perfect spot where you can see an aerial view of the confluence. Today, Kalemegdan hosts the Military Museum, contemporary art gallery “Cvijeta Zuzorić“, the Belgrade Zoo, a small natural history museum, as well as sports courts and a beautiful park.

Some of the landmarks of downtown Bel-grade include the busy Knez Mihajlova Street, the central pedestrian area lined with shops, cafes and galleries, the Cathe-dral Church of St. Michael the Archangel, the National Theater and the National Museum.

Skadarlija, a charming cobbled street that is the former bohemian quarter where fa-mous Serbian poets and artists used to gather regularly, is now the place to visit some of the more traditional Serbian res-taurants. The imposing Temple of St. Sava is a hallmark of Belgrade’s skyline, as it is the largest Orthodox temple in this part of the world.

Ada Ciganlija lake, perfect for a day out, has a huge park providing various sports opportunities. Alternatively, you can enga-ge in lazy sunbathing and peoplewatching in the many cafes.

Witness to the eclectic mix that makes up modern-day Belgrade, Zemun municipality shows a different historical background. As the former southernmost tip of the Austro-Hungarian Empire, it was officially added to Belgrade city area only in 1918, after the First World War. With its unique charm and the picturesque Danube waterfront li-ned with lounge cafes and exclusive res-taurants, it gives off a special chillout vibe, attracting both locals and tourists.

The cultural hub of this part of EuropeBelgrade has a very rich and varied cultu-ral scene throughout the year, showcasing a number of festivals. In recent years, the city made its name with the exceptionally vibrant night life scene that had some of the most prominent international media highlight it as a place not to be missed by clubbers. Both the Danube and the Sava river banks are lined with popular boat re-staurants that add a special attraction to nights out.

Katarina GaborovicHead of Marketing and PR Department

Raiffeisen banka a.d.

CITY BREAK

Belgrade: Where the Sava meets the Danube

Some of my top picks for a decent business lunch:

Kalemegdanska terasa Kalemegdan

Franš Bulevar oslobođenja 18a

Dijagonala Skerlićeva 6

GandolfiniNikola Tesla Boulevard 3 (Zemun)

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GSS Press | August 2015 13

Where did you start your professional career?My first employment as an apprentice banker was at the National Bank of Yu-goslavia in 1999. I moved on to the Nati-onal Savings Bank Belgrade (today: Euro-bank Serbia), where I had the opportunity to get acquainted with the world of securi-ties. Custody was a completely new ban-king service then, introduced by the Law on Financial Market in November 2003.

My colleagues at Raiffeisen a.d. Serbia were the first on the market to obtain a cus-tody license in 2004 and built the custody operation from scratch. I was lucky enough to join a professional team and to learn all about the custody business, about treasury sales and investment banking.

What do you like about your job? And what do you find difficult?I really like everything about the securities services business, particularly being in contact with clients and striving for the best solutions in their interest. I believe that where there is a will there is a way, even when this means to overcome occa-sional local administration gaps. Experi-enced international and local teams are our key to success.

What are the biggest potentials you see for your market?Foreign capital inflow plays a significant role in the financing of the Serbian econo-my. After 2000 this inflow has notably in-tensified. Major growth in foreign capital was recorded in 2006/2007, mainly trig-gered by the privatization process, after which it started to decrease, except for the year 2011. On the Regulated Market

HAVE YOU MET

the average share turnover more than tri-pled in 2011 while the average number of trades was nearly 7 times bigger.

I like to remember when we launched the ToB for Nis a.d. Novi Sad for our client Gazpromneft in early 2011. This deal was specific due to the fact that, for the first time, shares of a public company were subject of a ToB and at the same time a huge number of shareholders (4.5 mn) was qualified for this ToB, which is unique in the Serbian market. In the same year we were mandated to organize four ToBs simultaneously for our client Delta Maxi. These four ToBs came as a result of the purchase of 100% of Delta Maxi by Belgi-an Delhaize Group, which was one of the most important investments in the Serbian economy in 2011. In fact, we have done all major take overs (Telenor, Stada, Stra-bag...).

The current privatization process will be finished with a tender for privatization of the state-owned Telekom Serbia. Given the experience with the shares of NIS, an upward trend can be expected, along with positive impulses for the Serbian ca-pital market.

How do you spend your spare time?People say that you cannot see the top of the mountain as long as you are in the valley, so I like climbing up the mountains for skiing with my family and friends. And I try to visit a new city every year. Doubt-lessly, the best investment is traveling and learning more about different cultures, ha-bits and mentalities, which opens up new perspectives.

It’s all about the team

What is your favourite place in your city?Hard to decide whether I prefer the streets on Dorćol with their historic heritage or the ancient Savamala area, where you can watch open air theatre plays, visit de-signer markets, go in for ice-skating, have a nice dinner, or listen to stand-up come-dy at Ban Akiba. Also, I really enjoy cyc-ling near the two rivers Danube and Sava all the way to Ada Lake.

Overall, Belgrade offers a variety of choices for everyone, from the beautiful Kalemegdan fortress via downtown’s Knez Mihajlova main street to the char-ming Kosančićev Venac and Dorćol neigh-borhoods.

Not to forget, Belgrade’s hedonist quarter, Skadarlija was a hot spot for poets and ar-tists in the late 19th and early 20th century. It connects the Republic square with the Ska-darlija (Bajloni) market, one of the largest in the city centre. Indeed, a fine place to try local food and feel the atmosphere.

Ivana Novaković, Head of GSS Serbia, provides an insight into her profession

GSS Press | August 2015 14

CONTACT US

GSS Central TeamRaiffeisen Bank International AGAm Stadtpark 91030 Vienna, Austriawww.rbinternational.comAttila Szalay-BerzeviczyHead of [email protected]: +43 1 71707-8252Jürgen SattlerHead of GSS Regional [email protected]: +43 1 71707-1882Bettina JanoschekHead of GSS Sales & Relationship [email protected]: +43 1 71707-1820

AustriaRaiffeisen Bank International AGAm Stadtpark 91030 Vienna, AustriaAnita FröchHead of GSS [email protected]: +43 1 71707-3040www.rbinternational.com

AlbaniaRaiffeisen Bank Sh.a.“European Trade Center”Bulevardi “Bajram Curri” TiranaMirela BoriciHead of GSS [email protected]: +355 4 2381000-1074www.raiffeisen.al

BelarusPriorbank JSC31-A, V. Khoruzhey Str.220002 MinskYury DorofeyHead of GSS [email protected]: +375 17 2899102www.priorbank.by

Bosnia and HerzegovinaRaiffeisen BANK d.d.Bosna i HercegovinaZmaja od Bosne bb71000 SarajevoDraženko BobašHead of GSS [email protected]: +387 33 287-153www.raiffeisenbank.ba

BulgariaRaiffeisenbank (Bulgaria) EAD55, Nicola Vaptzarov Blvd., Business Center Expo 2000, 1407 SofiaMaria LazovaHead of GSS [email protected]: +359 2 91985-463www.rbb.bg

CroatiaRaiffeisenbank Austria d.d.Petrinjska 5910000 ZagrebMensur HodžicHead of GSS [email protected]: +385 1 6174-327www.rba.hr

Czech RepublicRaiffeisenbank a.s.Hvezdova 1716/2b14078 Prague 4Vit Cermák Head of GSS Czech [email protected]: +420 234 40-1481www.rb.cz

HungaryRaiffeisen Bank Zrt.Akadémia utca 61054 BudapestZsuzsanna HarasztiHead of GSS [email protected]: +361 484 4362www.raiffeisen.hu

PolandRaiffeisen Bank Polska S.A.(Raiffeisen Polbank)Piękna 20 Str.00-549 WarsawRadek IgnatowiczHead of GSS [email protected]: +48 22 585-2000www.raiffeisen.pl

RomaniaRaiffeisen Bank S.A.246C Calea Floreasca 014476 Bucharest 1Andrei MezdreaHead of GSS [email protected]: +40 21 30612-89www.raiffeisen.ro

RussiaAO RaiffeisenbankSmolenskaya-Sennaya Sq. 28119020 MoscowEvgenia KlimovaHead of GSS [email protected]: +7-495-721 9900www.raiffeisen.ru

SerbiaRaiffeisen banka a.d.Djordja Stanojevica 1611070 Novi BeogradIvana NovakovicHead of GSS [email protected]: +381 11 2207572www.raiffeisenbank.rs

SlovakiaTatra banka, a.s.Hodžovo námestie 381106 BratislavaPeter Uhrin Head of GSS [email protected] Phone: +421-2-5919 2134www.tatrabanka.sk

SloveniaRaiffeisen Banka d.d.Zagrebška cesta 762000 MariborPrimož KovacicHead of GSS [email protected]: +386 22293119www.raiffeisen.si

UkraineRaiffeisen Bank Aval JSC9, Leskova Str.01011 KievBogdana YefremovaHead of GSS [email protected] Phone: +380 44 49879 32 www.aval.ua

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GSS Press | August 2015 15

Imprint

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Raiffeisen Bank International AG, Registered Office: Am Stadtpark 9, 1030 Vienna. Postal address: 1010 Vienna, POB 50Phone: +43-1-71707-0, Fax: + 43-1-71707-1715Company Register Number: FN 122119m at the Commercial Court of ViennaVAT Identification Number: UID ATU 57531200Austrian Data Processing Register: Data processing register number (DVR): 4002771S.W.I.F.T.-Code: RZBA AT WW

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Publisher of GSS Press: Raiffeisen Bank International AG, Am Stadtpark 9, A-1030 ViennaMedia Owner of GSS Press: Zentrale Raiffeisenwerbung, Am Stadtpark 9, 1030 WienProducer: Marketing, Raiffeisen Bank International AG, Am Stadtpark 9, A-1030 ViennaEditors: Jürgen Sattler, Raiffeisen Bank International AG, Am Stadtpark 9, A-1030 Vienna

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Basic tendency of the content of GSS Press: GSS Press presents services and products of the Group Securities Services unit of Raiffeisen Bank International AG and its subsidiaries. Aiming at a professional audience, GSS Press reports about developments in the financial markets, with a particular focus on post-trade infrastructure. The publication is available free of charge.

Images: Photographs and illustrations provided by Raiffeisen Bank International, Attila Szalay-Berzeviczy and the organizations featured in this issue.

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This document has been published by Raiffeisen Bank International AG. This document is for information purposes and may not be reproduced or distributed to other persons. This document shall not be considered as financial, investment, legal or tax advice. This document constitutes neither a solicitation of an offer nor a prospectus in the sense of the Austrian Capital Market Act (KMG) or the Stock Exchange Act or any other comparable foreign law. An investment decision in respect of a security, financial product or investment must be made on the basis of an approved, published prospectus or the complete documentation for the security, financial product or investment in question, and not on the basis of this document. This document does not constitute a personal recommendation to buy or sell financial instruments in the sense of the Austrian Securities Supervision Act or any other comparable foreign law. Neither this document nor any of its components shall form the basis for any kind of contract or commitment whatsoever. This document is not a substitute for legal or tax advice or the necessary advice on the purchase or sale of a security, investment or other financial product. In respect of the sale or purchase of securities, investments or financial products, your banking advisor can provide individualised advice which is suitable for investments and financial products. This analysis is fundamentally based on generally available information and not on confidential information which the party preparing the document has obtained exclusively on the basis of his/her client relationship with a person. Unless otherwise expressly stated in this publication, the publisher deems all of the information to be reliable, but does not make any assurances regarding its accuracy and completeness. The publisher shall not have any liability for any representations (expressed or implied) regarding information contained in, or for any omissions from, this document or any other written or oral communications transmitted to the recipient in the course of its preparation. The information in this publication is current, as of the creation date of the document. It may be outdated by future developments, without the publication being changed. The data and statements contained in this document are strictly limited to the matters stated herein and shall not to be read as extending by implication to any other matter.

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IMPRINT & DISCLAIMER

GSS Press | August 2015

PHOTO OF THE MONTH by Attila Szalay-Berzeviczy Novak Djokovic (vs. Roger Federer) at the US Open semi finalFlushing Meadows, September 2011

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