Growing Knowledge about Globalization (GKG)ina/gkg/confs/chicago.pdfGrowing Knowledge about...
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Growing Knowledge about Growing Knowledge about Globalization (GKG) Globalization (GKG) Observing Trade, 1980-2001 Kellogg Institute for International Studies Kellogg Institute for International Studies University of Notre Dame University of Notre Dame October 6, 2005 October 6, 2005 Miguel Centeno, Sara R. Curran, John Galloway, Paulette Lloyd & Suresh Sood Princeton University, University of Washington, University of Technology Sydney & NetMap Analytics
Transcript of Growing Knowledge about Globalization (GKG)ina/gkg/confs/chicago.pdfGrowing Knowledge about...
Growing Knowledge about Growing Knowledge about Globalization (GKG)Globalization (GKG)Observing Trade, 1980-2001
Kellogg Institute for International StudiesKellogg Institute for International Studies
University of Notre DameUniversity of Notre Dame
October 6, 2005October 6, 2005
Miguel Centeno, Sara R. Curran, John Galloway, Paulette Lloyd & Suresh SoodPrinceton University, University of Washington, University of Technology Sydney & NetMap Analytics
Globalization is everywhereGlobalization is everywhere……..Articles on Globalization
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1990 1995 1999 2001 2003 2004
Scholarly
Mass Media
Globalization is a Globalization is a processprocess leading to leading to greater greater interdependenceinterdependence and mutual and mutual awareness (reflexivity) among awareness (reflexivity) among economic, political, and socialeconomic, political, and social units in units in the world, and among actors in general.the world, and among actors in general.
Mauro GuillMauro Guilléén 2001n 2001
Globalization is a Black BoxGlobalization is a Black Box
Theory raced ahead of evidenceTheory raced ahead of evidenceEntrenched theoretical and public policy Entrenched theoretical and public policy debates: debates: Is it good or bad?Is it good or bad?Empirical evidence is unevenEmpirical evidence is uneven
Consequences of theConsequences of the……..Failure to understand the structure of Failure to understand the structure of globalizationglobalizationFailure to analyze interaction dynamicsFailure to analyze interaction dynamicsFailure to foresee unintended Failure to foresee unintended consequences, crises, consequences, crises, ““normal accidentsnormal accidents””, , systemic malfunctionssystemic malfunctions
Contents of the Black Box: Contents of the Black Box: TransactionsTransactions
Link disparate actors (nodes) around Link disparate actors (nodes) around the globethe globeActors can be people, cities, countries, Actors can be people, cities, countries, or organizations or organizations Measured as trade, capital transfers, Measured as trade, capital transfers, treaties, travel, collaborations, and treaties, travel, collaborations, and communicationcommunication
Black Box of Globalization:Black Box of Globalization:Network AnalysisNetwork Analysis
Reveals the structure of social relationsReveals winners and losers of globalization processes Illustrates change over time and potentially reveals mechanisms of change
Map the Pattern of Transactions:Map the Pattern of Transactions:Reveal Globalization NetworkReveal Globalization Network
Build database on transactionsBuild database on transactionsDevelop tools for visualizing transactions Develop tools for visualizing transactions statically and dynamicallystatically and dynamicallyCreate open access data and tools for Create open access data and tools for scholarly and public policy investigatorsscholarly and public policy investigators
Models of GlobalizationModels of Globalization
Growing Knowledge about Growing Knowledge about GlobalizationGlobalization
Who? Who? A crossA cross--national, multinational, multi--institutional collaborationinstitutional collaboration
What? What? Database, webDatabase, web--based interface for public access, and based interface for public access, and development of visualization toolsdevelopment of visualization tools
How?How?Research, descriptive publications, teaching tools, Research, descriptive publications, teaching tools, and open access websiteand open access website
When?When?FiveFive--year effort from 2005year effort from 2005--20102010
GKG Projects and ProductsGKG Projects and Products
Observing TradeObserving TradeTracking PeopleTracking PeopleFollowing the MoneyFollowing the MoneyTransmitting CultureTransmitting CultureSurveying InstitutionsSurveying Institutions
Reference VolumesReference VolumesConferences Conferences Case StudiesCase StudiesWebsite Website Statistical and Data Statistical and Data ProductsProducts
Observing TradeObserving TradeW o r ld w id e E x p o r t s
- 5
0
5
1 0
1 5
2 0
2 5
3 0
1 9 7 0 1 9 7 5 1 9 8 0 1 9 8 5 1 9 9 0 1 9 9 5 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 5
Perc
ent
Exports as % of GDP
Annual % Change in Trade Volume
Significant Moments of ObservationSignificant Moments of Observation
YearYear Characterization of EraCharacterization of Era
19801980 ““Crisis in the Global SystemCrisis in the Global System””Post OPEC, UNCTAD, collapse of Post OPEC, UNCTAD, collapse of Import Substitution, onset of debt crisisImport Substitution, onset of debt crisis
19901990 ““Victory of the MarketVictory of the Market””Establishment of EC, End of Cold War, Establishment of EC, End of Cold War, GATT, Structural Adjustment Policies, GATT, Structural Adjustment Policies, Container ShippingContainer Shipping
20012001 ““North versus SouthNorth versus South””WTO, Internet WTO, Internet
Data and MethodsData and MethodsTrade DataTrade Data
World Trade AnalyzerWorld Trade Analyzer1980, 1990, 20011980, 1990, 2001$ Amount of $ Amount of exports/imports exports/imports between every countrybetween every countryIncluding an aggregate Including an aggregate of all commodities and of all commodities and 93 of those related to 93 of those related to food, shelter, clothing, food, shelter, clothing, energy, machinery and energy, machinery and engines.engines.
Network MapsNetwork MapsApply Apply NetMap NetMap VisualizerVisualizer softwaresoftwareAnalyze country and Analyze country and regional trade patternsregional trade patternsObserve emergent Observe emergent groupsgroupsDisplay Cartesian Display Cartesian mapsmapsFollow step links from Follow step links from central nodescentral nodes
Too Much Information?Too Much Information?Randomness or Chaos?Randomness or Chaos?
1980
World Trade
All commodities
No thresholds
Domestic or International?Domestic or International?
1980 Trade Structure with links >=0.3% of Total Trade 1980 Trade Structure with links >=0.3% of Total Trade Value: EuroValue: Euro--1212
AfricaLatin America
CIS & Baltics
Europe
Middle EastUnknown Destinations
E. Asia
S.E. Asia
N. America
US
Euro-12
UKJapan
Canada
1990
N. America
S.E. Asia
E. Asia
Middle East
Europe
CIS & Baltics
Latin America
AfricaOceania
US
Euro-12
Japan
20012001
N. America
S.E. Asia
E. Asia
Unknown Destinations
Middle East
Europe
CIS & Baltics
Latin America
USEuro-12
Mexico
Emergent Group AnalysisEmergent Group AnalysisNetMapNetMap creates several types of analyses, creates several types of analyses, including:including:
PrePre--defined groups based on some attribute such as defined groups based on some attribute such as regions or civilizationsregions or civilizationsEmergent groupsEmergent groups
Emergent groups represent countries which Emergent groups represent countries which trade more with each other than with any other trade more with each other than with any other countries.countries.
Composed of at least 3 countriesComposed of at least 3 countriesWhich share at least 50% of the same trade tiesWhich share at least 50% of the same trade ties
2001 Emergent Group Analysis2001 Emergent Group Analysis
US
Euro-12
Mexico
UKCanada
Emergent Group Members:
USJapanBrazilCanadaChinaUKHong KongS. KoreaMexicoMalaysiaSaudi ArabiaSingaporeThailandTaiwanEuro-12
2001 Cartesian Map Analysis2001 Cartesian Map Analysis
US
Euro-12China
Unknown Destination
Japan
Step Link AnalysisStep Link Analysis
US
Euro-12Canada
JapanMexico
20012001
Concentration of World Trade Concentration of World Trade Links >= 0.3% of Total ValueLinks >= 0.3% of Total Value
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
1980 1990 20010.00E+00
2.00E+09
4.00E+09
6.00E+09
8.00E+09
1.00E+10
1.20E+10
1.40E+10Percent of World Trade in Top 0.1% of Links World Trade Value
Value of Trade in Top 0.1% ofLinks
Issue: Global EqualityIssue: Global Equality
Rich get Richer?Rich get Richer?80/20 Rule?80/20 Rule?Power DistributionPower Distribution
Distribution of Links:Distribution of Links:Total Trade at $Million ThresholdTotal Trade at $Million Threshold
2001
01234567
0 8 16 24 32 40 48 56 64 72 80 88 96 104
112
120
128
136
144
152
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168
Number of LinksN
umbe
r of C
ount
ries
1980
0
1
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0 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 66 72 78 84 90 96 102
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Number of Links
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ber o
f Cou
ntrie
s
Distribution of Links:Distribution of Links:Total Trade at 0.03% ThresholdTotal Trade at 0.03% Threshold
2001
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20
30
40
50
60
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0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40 44 48 52 56 60 64 68
Number of Links
Num
ber
of C
ount
ries
1980
0
10
20
30
40
50
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70
80
90
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58 61 64
Number of Links
Num
ber
of C
ount
ries
Distribution of Links:Distribution of Links:Total Trade at 0.3% ThresholdTotal Trade at 0.3% Threshold
2001
020406080
100120140160
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
Number of LinksN
umbe
r of C
ount
ries
1980
020406080
100120140160
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Number of Links
Num
ber o
f Cou
ntrie
s
ThresholdThreshold 19801980 20012001$Million$Million 22 220.03%0.03% 8383 7979
Number of Number of IsolatesIsolates
Average Average Number of Number of
Links without Links without IsolatesIsolates
Degrees of Degrees of Separation Separation
without Isolateswithout Isolates
0.3%0.3% 3.13.1 2.62.6
0.3%0.3% 136136 149149$Million$Million 45.445.4 63.963.90.03%0.03% 6.36.3 6.26.20.3%0.3% 2.82.8 3.63.6
$Million$Million 1.31.3 1.21.20.03%0.03% 2.32.3 2.52.5
Concentration of Concentration of World TradeWorld TradeTop 25% in 1980Top 25% in 1980
N. America
E. Asia
Unknown Destinations
Middle East
EuropeCIS & Baltics
Africa
Concentration of World Trade Concentration of World Trade Top 25% in 1990Top 25% in 1990
USCanada
Japan
UKEuro-12
Concentration of World Trade Concentration of World Trade Top 25% in 2001Top 25% in 2001
USCanada
Japan
UKEuro-12
Mexico
Concentration of Concentration of World Trade World Trade Top 50% in 2001Top 50% in 2001
N. America
E. Asia
Saudi Arabia
Europe
Russia
Mexico
Malaysia
Concentration of World Trade Concentration of World Trade Top 75% in 2001Top 75% in 2001
N. America
S.E. Asia
E. Asia
Unknown Destinations
Middle East
Europe
CIS & Baltics
Latin America
India
AfricaAustralia
Issue #2: Regional EffectsIssue #2: Regional Effects
AmericasAmericasNAFTANAFTAAfricaAfricaSouth Africa (Fractal?)South Africa (Fractal?)
The Americas: The Americas: 19801980Fifty Largest Fifty Largest Unidirectional Unidirectional Trade LinksTrade Links
Canada
US
Brazil
Argentina
Neth. Antilles
Mexico
Canada
US
Brazil
Argentina
Neth. Antilles
Mexico
The Americas: The Americas: 20012001
The AmericasThe Americasw/o NAFTA:w/o NAFTA:1980 1980
Brazil
Argentina
Neth. Antilles
Venezuela
Chile
The Americas The Americas w/o NAFTA:w/o NAFTA:2001 2001
Brazil
Argentina
Neth. Antilles
Venezuela
Chile
Peru
Ecuador
Americas in World TradeAmericas in World TradeThe Americas and World Trade
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
1980 1990 2001
% o
f Wor
ld T
rade
0.E+001.E+082.E+083.E+084.E+085.E+086.E+087.E+088.E+089.E+081.E+09
Volu
me
(100
0USD
)
% of World Total wo NAFTA
% of World Total with NAFTA
Inter-American wo NAFTA
Inter-American with NAFTA
The Americas: The Americas: Food in 2001Food in 2001
Canada
US
Brazil
Venezuela
Mexico
Chile
The Americas: The Americas: Textile Fibers in 2001Textile Fibers in 2001 Canada
US
Brazil
Venezuela
Mexico
ChileColombia
Argentina
The Americas:The Americas:Apparel in 2001Apparel in 2001
Canada
US
Brazil
Mexico
ChileColombia
Argentina
The Americas:The Americas:Fuel in 2001Fuel in 2001
Canada
US
Brazil
Venezuela
Mexico
Argentina
Neth. Antilles
The Americas: The Americas: Machinery in 2001Machinery in 2001
Canada
US
Brazil
Venezuela
Mexico
ChileColombia
Argentina
Africa, US & Africa, US & EuroEuro--12121980All Commodities 50 Largest Links
These links represent:
88.90% of Africa trade discounting trade between US & Euro-12
Euro-12
US
Africa, US & Africa, US & EuroEuro--12122001All Commodities 50 Largest Links
These links represent:
84.65% of Africa trade discounting trade between US & Euro-12
Euro-12
USS. Africa
IntraIntra--African African TradeTrade1980All Commodities50 Largest Links
These links represent:
77.52% of All Intra-African Trade
Ghana
Uganda
S. Africa
Cote D’Ivoire
AlgeriaKenya
Mali
Nigeria
IntraIntra--African African TradeTrade2001All Commodities 50 Largest Links
These links represent:
75.83% of All Intra-African Trade
Ghana
Uganda
S. Africa
Cote D’Ivoire
AlgeriaKenya
Mali
Nigeria
Tunisia
Libya
Zimbabwe
Africa in World TradeAfrica in World TradePercent of Percent of
World Trade for:World Trade for: 19801980 20012001
IntraIntra--Africa Africa TradeTrade 0.11% 0.13%
Africa Trade Africa Trade including Trade including Trade
with US and with US and EuroEuro--1212
5.48% 1.92%
Summary and Next StepsSummary and Next StepsNodes: Additional characteristicsNodes: Additional characteristics
Empire and Empire and ““CivilizationCivilization””World Development Indicators and Economic SystemWorld Development Indicators and Economic SystemEtc.Etc.
Links: Additional transactionsLinks: Additional transactionsTourism and Air TravelTourism and Air TravelInternet usage and Phone callsInternet usage and Phone callsMigrationMigration
Layering StructuresLayering StructuresE.g., Combining trade linkages and cultural E.g., Combining trade linkages and cultural informationinformation
Dynamic ModelingDynamic ModelingE.g., Visualizing change over time or thresholdsE.g., Visualizing change over time or thresholds
Telephone Calls 1995by World Bank Estimated Income Levels•Classic display of the relationships predicted by dependency theory.
• Richest countries and even semi-rich (Socialist economies): internally and globally integrated.
• Poorer regions: not well integrated with each other and links only to the rich.
SocialistEconomies
High-mid
Low-mid
High
Low
ScheduleSchedule20052005--0606
Data uploaded to Data uploaded to www.princeton.edu/~inawww.princeton.edu/~inaInteractive production of NetmapInteractive production of NetmapConference March 2006Conference March 2006Publication of Observing Trade Fall 2006Publication of Observing Trade Fall 2006Expansion of data and further pubs, 2006Expansion of data and further pubs, 2006--2010.2010.
www.princeton.edu/~ina/gkgwww.princeton.edu/~ina/gkg
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