Groundwater Management Policy Evaluation with a Spatial ...ย ยท Stage 2: Groundwater Pumping...
Transcript of Groundwater Management Policy Evaluation with a Spatial ...ย ยท Stage 2: Groundwater Pumping...
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Groundwater Management Policy Evaluation with a Spatial-
Dynamic Hydro-Economic Modeling Framework
Presented by Aaron Hrozencik
Dr. Dale Manning
Dr. Jordan Suter
Dr. Chris Goemans
Dr. Ryan Bailey
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Motivation
Challenges associated with managing spatial and temporal dynamics in common pool resources
โข Fisheries
โข Ecosystem Biodiversity
โข Wildlife
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Research Question:What is the value of spatially differentiated
policies to reach common groundwater
conservation goals?
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Contribution to literature
โข Nested governance, spatially explicit policies
Dietz, Ostrom & Stern, 2003; Sanchirico & Wilen, 2005; Edwards, 2016
โข Economic literature assessing gains to groundwater management
Gisser & Sanchez, 1980; Feinerman & Knapp, 1983; Brill & Burness, 1994; Rubio & Casino, 2001
โข Economics of spatially explicit groundwater utilizing insights from hydrology
Saak and Peterson, 2007; Brozovic et al., 2010; Pfeiffer and Lin, 2012; Guilfoos et al., 2013, Foster et al., 2014
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Groundwater Terminology
Saturated thickness โvertical distance of aquifer permeated by water
Hydraulic conductivity โpotential velocity of lateral groundwater
Well capacity (yield) โmax flow rate that a well can sustain over a period of time (gallons per minute)
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Microeconomic Foundations
Stage 1: Planting Decision
max๐ด๐๐๐ธ ๐=1
๐ฝ๐๐๐ด๐๐๐๐ ๐ค๐๐; ๐๐๐ก , ๐๐๐ก , ๐๐ , ๐=1
๐ฝ๐ด๐๐ โ ๐ด๐๐๐๐ด๐ โ ๐ด๐๐๐ค๐๐๐๐ค
Stage 2: Groundwater Pumping Decision
max๐ค๐๐ ๐โ๐ ๐๐ ๐ด๐๐๐๐ ๐ค๐๐; ๐๐๐ก , ๐๐๐ก , ๐๐ , ๐ด๐๐ โ ๐ด๐๐๐ค๐๐๐๐ค
๐๐๐ก ~ (๐, ๐2)
Assumes inter-seasonal myopic behavior (Foster et al. 2014)
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Microeconomic Foundations: Policy Options
Stage 1:
max๐ด๐๐๐ธ ๐=1
๐ฝ๐๐๐ด๐๐๐๐ ๐ค๐๐; ๐๐๐ก , ๐๐๐ก, ๐๐ , ๐ด๐๐ โ ๐ด๐๐(๐๐ด๐+๐๐ด) โ ๐ด๐๐๐ค๐๐(๐๐ค+ ๐๐ค)
subject to ๐=1๐ฝ๐ค๐๐ โค ๐
โข Planting Tax
โข Pumping Tax
โข Quota
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Hydro-Economic Model
Agronomic
Model
(Aquacrop)
Economic
Model
Hydrologic
Model
(RRCA
MODFLOW)
Hydrologic Model for RRCA designed by Slattery and Hendrix Engineering, downloaded from www.republicanrivercompact.org
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Dynamic Linking
Groundwater levels
Well capacity
Pumping quantity
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Results: Profit Path for 25% Reduction in Groundwater Pumping
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Results: Uniform Policy Costs and Benefits after 50 years
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Results: Spatially Differentiated Policy Costs and Benefits after 50 years
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GWMD Results
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Sand Hills Frenchman Plains Arikaree
Po
licy C
ost
s (m
illi
on
s o
f $)
Uniform Policy Spatially Differentiated Policy
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Discussion
How do results inform management strategies for spatially dynamic common pool resources?
โข Hydraulic conductivity and initial average well capacity define which GWMDs are targeted in spatially differentiated policy
โข Incentives and disincentives for cooperation among GWMDs
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Future Work
โข Distributional impacts of spatially differentiated policies.
โข Utilize survey instrument to elicit groundwater user preferences over management policies.
โข Efficiency of voting mechanisms in groundwater management policy selection.
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Questions?
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โข Appendix
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Pumping by well capacity bins
300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 11000
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
Well Capacity (GPM)
Ac.
ft.
pum
ped
Reported Pumping
Simulated Pumping
300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 11000
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Well Capacity (GPM)
Ac.
ft.
pum
ped
Reported Pumping
Simulated Pumping
Sandy Soil in North Region Sandy Soil in South Region
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Agronomic Model (AquaCrop)
Generates water-crop yield production functions for
heterogeneous groundwater users accounting for variation
in:
โข Soil Type
โข Climate Zone
โข Weather Realization
โข Well Capactiy
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Well Capacity
โข Maximum flow rate (gpm) that can be sustained over a period of time
Source: United States Geological Survey
Return
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The Case for Spatially Differentiated Policies
Homogeneous Aquifer Saturated Thickness
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Microeconomic Foundations: Policy Options
Stage 1:
max๐ด๐๐๐ธ ๐=1
๐ฝ๐๐๐ด๐๐๐๐ ๐ค๐๐; ๐๐๐ก , ๐๐๐ก, ๐๐ , ๐ด๐๐ โ ๐ด๐๐(๐๐ด๐+๐๐ด) โ ๐ด๐๐๐ค๐๐(๐๐ค+ ๐๐ค)
subject to ๐=1๐ฝ๐ค๐๐ โค ๐
โข Planting Tax
โข Pumping Tax
โข Quota
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Three management policies to address over-pumping of aquifer
โข Qty restrict
โข Uniform pumping tax
โข Irrigated acreage fee
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Table of policy type and levels
โข What do the spatially differentiated policies look like?
โข How did we characterize the heterogeneity of the spatial externality of pumping across GWMDs to inform the creation of the spatially differentiated policies
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