Gross Domestic Product · 13 hours ago · Q1 2013 Q2 2014 Q3 2015 Q4 2016 Q1 2018 Q2 2019 Q3 2020...
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Transcript of Gross Domestic Product · 13 hours ago · Q1 2013 Q2 2014 Q3 2015 Q4 2016 Q1 2018 Q2 2019 Q3 2020...
1
2
Source: Datastream, Turkstat
Gross Domestic Product 6
83
,02
0
78
2,8
65
65
1,5
43
77
7,4
61
83
7,9
24
87
7,6
76
95
8,1
25
93
9,9
23
86
7,0
71
86
9,2
41
85
9,0
55
79
7,1
24
76
0,7
78
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
GDP (billion USD)
9,7
35
11
,01
8
9,0
44
10
,62
9
11
,28
9
11
,67
5
12
,58
2
12
,17
8
11
,08
5
10
,96
4
10
,69
6
9,7
92
9,2
13
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
Per capita GDP (USD)
3
Source: Datastream, Turkstat
Economic Growth 0
.8
-4.8
8.4
11
.2
4.8
8.5
4.9
6.1
3.3
7.5
3.0
0.9
-3.1
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 H1-20
Annual Real GDP Growth (%)
-18
-12
-6
0
6
12
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Contributions to Growth (2009=100 chain linked volume index % points)
Stock Change Net ExportsInvestment ConsumptionGDP
4
Leading Indicators
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
Aug 16 Aug 17 Aug 18 Aug 19 Aug 20
Confidence Indices
Real sector confidence index
Economic confidence index
Consumer confidence index
5 (*) As of July 2020. Source: Datastream, Turkstat
4.4*
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
Q12013
Q22014
Q32015
Q42016
Q12018
Q22019
Q32020
Calendar Adjusted Industrial Production
(yoy, % change)
8.9 9.2
12.0 11.9
10.0
8.5 8.8 9.1
10.3 10.2
12.0
9.9
12.8 13.1
14.3
45 44 45 47 47 47 49 49 51 52 52 53 53 52
49
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Labor Market Indicators* (%)
Unemployment
Labor Participation Rate
(*) Seasonally adjusted figures. Latest figure as of June 2020. Source: Datastream, Turkstat
Labor Market
6
20 20 20 21 23 23
24 25 26 27 27 29 28 28
26
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Employment* (million persons)
Source: Turkstat, Ministry of Treasury and Finance
Fiscal Discipline
32.7 31.4
28.8 27.6 28.3 28.3
30.4 33.1
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
General Government Debt Stock (% GDP)
Maastricht criterion: 60%
7
1.9
1.0 1.1
1.0 1.1
1.5
2.0
2.9
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Budget Deficit (% GDP)
Maastricht criterion: 3%
Exports
8
16
1
16
7
15
1
14
9 16
4 17
7
18
1
16
7
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020*
Exports (billion USD)
3.8
3.8
3.9
4.0
4.0
4.8
5.2
5.5
9.8
13.3
Non knitted and crocheted goods
Articles of iron and steel
Mineral fuels and oils
Plastic and articles
Precious stones
Knitted and crocheted goods
Iron and steel
Electrical machinery andequipment
Boilers and machineries
Motor vehicles
Exports* (% of total)
(*) 12-month cumulative, as of July 2020
Source: Datastream, Turkstat
Exports
2007 % of
total
1. Germany
2. UK
3. Italy
4. France
5. Russia
6. Spain
7. US
8. Romania
9. UAE
10. Netherlands
11.2
8.0
7.0
5.6
4.4
4.3
3.9
3.4
3.0
2.8
The share of first 10 53.6
2020* % of
total
1. Germany
2. UK
3. Iraq
4. USA
5. Italy
6. France
7. Spain
8. Netherlands
9. Israel
10. Russia
9.3
6.2
5.7
5.6
5.0
4.1
4.0
3.2
2.6
2.6
The share of first 10 48.3
Top 10 Export Markets
48.3
39.7
13.2
17.8
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020*
Exports (% of total)
EU
Near and Middle East
9 (*) 12-month cumulative, as of July 2020
Source: Datastream, Turkstat
Imports 2
61
25
1
21
4
20
2
23
9
23
1
21
0
20
6
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020*
Imports (billion USD)
2.2
2.4
2.7
5.5
5.5
7.1
7.5
9.2
10.9
16.4
Optical products
Pharmaceuticalproducts
Organic chemicals
Motor vehicles
Plastic and articles
Iron and steel
Electrical machineryand equipment
Precious Stones
Boilers and machineries
Mineral fuels and oils
Imports* (% of total)
10 (*) 12-month cumulative, as of July 2020
Source: Datastream, Turkstat
Imports
2007 % of total
1. Russia
2. Germany
3. China
4. Italy
5. US
6. France
7. Iran
8. UK
9. Switzerland
10. Ukraine
13.8
10.3
7.8
5.7
4.8
4.6
3.9
3.2
3.1
2.7
The share of first 10 59.9
2020* % of
total
1. China
2. Russia
3. Germany
4. US
5. Italy
6. France
7. Iraq
8. South Korea
9. India
10. UK
10.1
9.8
9.4
5.8
4.2
3.1
3.0
2.7
2.7
2.6
The share of first 10 53.3
Top 10 Import Markets
15.9
72.7
11.0
2007
Capital Goods
Intermediate Goods
Consumption Goods
13.3
75.9
10.5
2020*
Composition of Imports (%)
11 (*) 12-month cumulative, as of July 2020
Source: Datastream, Turkstat
(*) 12-month cumulative, as of July 2020.
Source: CBRT, Ministry of Culture and Tourism
Tourism
17 19
23 23 23
25 25
28 30
27
19
22
25
30
19*
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Tourism Revenues (USD bn)
12
0.6
0.6
0.8
0.9
1.2
1.3
1.3
1.7
3.0
3.6
Azerbaijan
Netherlands
Ukraine
Iraq
Iran
Georgia
UK
Bulgaria
Germany
Russia
Number of Tourists (million persons)
2020*
2019
2018
Number of Tourists
2017: 32.4 mn
2018: 39.5 mn
2019: 45.1 mn
2020*: 25.8 mn
Source: Turkstat, New Economic Program (2020-2022)
Savings & Investments
1.7
5.7
8.8
5.5 6.6
4.6 3.6 3.8
5.6
3.4
-0.2
1.1 0.7
-0.1
21.4 21.3 22.5 22.8 23.2
24.4 24.8 24.5 25.4 26.2 27.0 27.0
28.5 30.6
23.0
27.0
31.3
28.3 29.8 29.0 28.3 28.3
31.0 29.6
26.8 28.1
29.2 30.5
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Investments and Savings (% of GDP)
Saving Gap
Savings
Investments
New Economic Program
Forecasts
13
(*) Long term capital movements are sum of banking and real sectors’ long term net credit and bonds issued by banks and the Treasury
(**) Short-term capital movements are sum of banking and real sectors' short term net credits and deposits in banks.
Source: CBRT, Turkstat
Current Account Balance
-5.7 -5.5 -5.1
-1.8
-5.8
-8.9
-5.5 -5.9
-4.2
-3.2 -3.1
-4.8
-2.6
1.2
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Current Account Balance (% of GDP)
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Financing of CAD (12-month cumulative, billion USD)
Foreign Direct and Long Term Investments*
Portfolio and Short Term Investments**
Current Account Deficit
14
Source: CBRT
Capital Flows
15
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Jul 17 Jan 18 Jul 18 Jan 19 Jul 19 Jan 20 Jul 20B
inle
r
Foreign Direct Investment Inflows (12- month cumulative, billion USD)
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
Jul 17 Jan 18 Jul 18 Jan 19 Jul 19 Jan 20 Jul 20
Portfolio Inflows (12-month cumulative, billion USD)
Debt Securities
Equity Securities
(*) Latest figure as of August 2020.
Source: CBRT, Datastream
Monetary Policy
11.77
4
8
12
16
20
24
28
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Annual CPI Inflation* (%)
4
8
12
16
20
24
28
Mar 19 Sep 19 Mar 20 Sep 20
Interest Rates (%)
Interest Rate Corridor
One Week Repo Rate
Late Liquidity Window
CBRT Weighted Average Cost of Funding
16
(*) Latest figure as of September 15, 2020.
Source: Datastream
Financial Markets
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
Jan 19 May 19 Sep 19 Jan 20 May 20 Sep 20
USD vs Local Currencies (Dec. 31, 2018 = 100)
Turkey
Brazil
Russia
Indonesia
South Africa
60
80
100
120
140
160
Jan 19 May 19 Sep 19 Jan 20 May 20 Sep 20
Equity Indices (Dec. 31, 2018 = 100)
Turkey Brazil
Russia Indonesia
South Africa
no
min
al d
ep
recia
tio
n in
lo
ca
l cu
rre
ncy
17
(*) Latest figure as of September 15, 2020.
Source: Datastream
Financial Markets
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Jan 19 May 19 Sep 19 Jan 20 May 20 Sep 20
5Y CDS Spreads (bps)
Turkey Brazil
Russia Indonesia
South Africa
18
0
5
10
15
20
25
Jan 19 May 19 Sep 19 Jan 20 May 20 Sep 20
5Y Government Bond Yields (%)
Turkey Brazil
Russia Indonesia
South Africa
19
(*) Excluding the banks under the administration of the SDIF
Source: BRSA
Basic Indicators
8 10
15
28
25
14
2004 July 2020
Number of Banks*
Public
Foreign
Domestic Private
52 48
58
31
3
25
38 44
2004 July 2020
Share in Total Assets (%)
Public
Foreign
Domestic Private
20
Source: BRSA
Basic Indicators
12
7,3
91
13
8,1
69
15
0,4
62
16
7,2
12
18
2,1
00
18
3,6
14
19
0,5
86
19
4,6
17
20
0,7
45
21
3,4
31
21
6,0
63
21
6,7
22
21
0,1
12
20
7,5
32
20
6,9
74
20
3,8
39
20
2,3
20
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 July2020
Number of Domestic Staff
21
6,1
77
6,5
21
7,2
56
8,0
71
9,2
50
9,5
26
10
,00
0
10
,44
0
10
,98
1
11
,90
3
12
,12
5
12
,18
5
11
,66
4
11
,50
8
11
,49
3
11
,30
0
11
,23
6
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 July2020
Number of Domestic Branches
Source: BRSA, Turkstat
Basic Indicators
23 17 17
12 13 0 16
20
13 15 13 14 12 19 20
15
50
57
40
30 29
7
34 30
16
32
19 20 17 21
14 11
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Nominal GDP Growth (%)
Loan Growth (%)
228
809
2004 July 2020
Assets (bn USD)
X3.5
74
486
2004 July 2020
Loans (bn USD)
X6.6
143
462
2004 July 2020
Deposits (bn USD)
X3.2
34
81
2004 July 2020
Equity (bn USD)
X2.4
22
Source: BRSA
Balance Sheet Items
23
32
60
40
17
15 13
12 10
2004 July 2020
Asset Composition (%)
Other Assets
Cash+Banks
Securities
Loans
62 57
11 11
0 4
15 10
11 18
2004 July 2020
Liability Composition (%)
Other Liabilities
Shareholder's Equity
Securities Issued
Banks
Deposits
Latest figure as of September 11, 2020.
Source: BRSA
Deposits
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Deposit Volume (annual % change)
TL Deposits
FX Deposits in USD Terms
Total Deposits (exchange rate adjusted)
46.4
40
45
50
55
60
65
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Share of TL Deposits in Total (%)
24
Latest figure as of September 11, 2020.
Source: BRSA
Loans
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Loan Volume (annual % change)
TL Loans
FX Loans in USD Terms
Total Loans (exchange rate adjusted)
64.6
55
59
63
67
71
75
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Share of TL Loans in Total (%)
25
Source: BRSA, EBA
Non-Performing Loans 6
.0
4.7
3.7
3.5
3.7
5.3
3.7
2.7
2.9
2.8
2.9
3.1
3.2
3.0
3.9
5.4
4.3
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 July
2020
Non-performing Loan Ratio (%)
0.5 0.9 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.3 2.5 2.7 3.0 3.2 3.3 3.7 4.1 4.5 4.8 5.4
6.5 6.7 7.2
19.4 35.2
SwedenLuxembourg
NorwayGermany
UKFinland
DenmarkLatvia
NetherlandsBelgiumAustriaFrance
EU AverageMaltaSpain
IrelandSloveniaRomaniaHungary
PolandTurkey
PortugalItaly
BulgariaS. Cyprus
Greece
NPL Ratio (%, 2019)
26
(*) As of July 2020.
Source: BRSA
Loans by Sectors
0.2
0.3
4.4
6.3
5.3
2.3
6.1
8.5
5.5
3.8
1.7
2.1
3.5
3.6
5.6
6.0
6.8
8.2
12.8
21.2
Defense and Public Administration
Financial Intermediation
Agriculture, Hunting and Forestry
Tourism
Real Estate Brokerage, Renting and Business Act.
Transportation, Storage and Communication
Electricity, Gas and Water Resources
Construction
Wholesale and Retail Trade
Manufacturing industry
Loans by Main Industry Groups*
Share (%)
NPL (%)
27
Source: CBRT
Net FX Position of NFCs
10.5 10.2 -3.5 -0.6 -5.5 -0.1 5.9 2.3 7.8 1.5
5.0 15.1
-77 -98
-114 -135
-167 -180 -195 -206
-219 -208 -184 -178 -66
-88
-118
-136
-173 -180
-189 -204
-211 -206
-179
-163
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019June2020
Net FX Position of the Non-Financial Sector (bn USD)
Long Term Net FX Position
Short Term Net FX Position
Net FX Position
28
Source: CBRT
FX Assets & Liabilities of NFCs
51 82 102 122 155 172 175 178 184 171 153 147 81
75 77
81 81 81 84 92 101 103
98 97
15 18
20 22
30 30 30 33 42 45
51 44
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 June 2020
FX Liabilities of NFCs (bn USD)
Import Payables
External Loans
Domestic Loans
57 62 55 61 64 67 69 68 78 75 84 92 9 11 11 12 13 13 12 13
16 20 20 11
13 13 16 16 17 22 18 19 21 17
19 19
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 June 2020
FX Assets of NFCs (bn USD)
Securities
Direct InvestmentAbroadExport Receivables
Deposits
29
(*) External debt maturing within 1 year or less regardless of the original maturity.
Source: CBRT
Short Term External Debt Stock
111
198 187
332
108 101
76 74 78
117 97
123 142 140
106
138
89 74
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 July2020
12-month Long-Term Debt Roll Over Ratio
(%)
Banking Sector Non-banking Sector
30
July 2020 (*)
(bn USD) Share (%)
Central Bank 20.1 11.4
General Government 5.8 3.3
Banks 82.2 46.6
Credits 33.9 19.2
FX Deposits 21.5 12.2
Bank Accounts 11.1 6.3
Branches and Affiliates Abroad 3.8 2.1
TRY Deposits 15.7 8.9
Branches and Affiliates Abroad 7.7 4.3
Other Sectors 68.4 38.7
Trade Credits 49.7 28.2
Other Credits 18.7 10.6
Public 1.3 0.8
Private 17.4 9.8
Total 176.5 100.0
(*) Latest figure as of September 11, 2020.
Source: BRSA
Non-Deposit Sources
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Net FX Position* (billion USD)
Net On Balance Off Balance
21.1
15.3
11.5
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
External Borrowings of the Banks (outstanding amount, billion USD)
Eurobonds Syndication Loans Securitization Loans
Double Investment
Grade
(May 2013-Sep.2016)
31
(*) As of July 2020.
Source: BRSA, EBA
Capital Adequacy Ratio
23.7
21.9
18.9 18.0
20.6
19.0
16.6
17.9
15.3
16.3 15.6
15.6
16.9
17.3 18.4
19.2*
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
Capital Adequacy Ratio (%)
Legal Limit of 8%
Target Rate of 12%
15.6
15.8 16.4
17.3 17.4 17.4 17.7
18.3 18.4 18.4 18.5
19.0 19.3 19.3 19.4 19.9 19.9
20.5 21.6 21.7 21.7
23.0
SpainHungaryPortugalGreece
ItalySlovakia
PolandGermany
AustriaTurkeyFrance
S. CyprusBelgium
EU AverageSloveniaBulgaria
LatviaCzech Rep.
CroatiaMalta
IrelandNetherlands
Capital Adequacy Ratio (%, 2019)
32
Source: The Bank Association of Turkey
Alternative Banking Channels
7,227
13,253
2011 Q1 2020 Q2
Internet Banking (number of active customers, thousand persons)
X1.8
230
58,106
2011 Q1 2020 Q2
Mobile Banking (number of active customers, thousand persons)
X252
33
Profitability
(*) Net interest income / average total assets
Source: BRSA
34
5.4%
4.3%
3.5%
4.1%
3.7% 3.5% 3.5%
3.6% 3.8%
3.9% 3.8%
4.6%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Q22020
NIM*
36%
41%
44%
41% 43%
45% 46%
40% 38%
34% 36%
32%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Q22020
Cost / Income Ratio
Profitability
Source: BRSA 35
2.5%
1.7% 1.8%
1.6%
1.3% 1.2%
1.5% 1.6%
1.4%
1.2% 1.3%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Q22020
ROAA
20.1%
15.5% 15.7%
14.2%
12.3% 11.3%
14.3%
15.9% 14.8%
11.5%
13.2%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Q22020
ROAE
Stock Exchange Performance
Latest figure as of September 15, 2020.
Source: Datastream
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
1600
1700
1800
1900
2000
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Stock Exchange Performance (thousands)
BIST-100 Index Banking Sector Index (right axis)
36
Banking Sector Comparison
Source: BRSA, Turkstat, ECB, Eurostat
63
66
74
83
87
87
87
96
98
10
1
10
5
10
5
10
4
10
5
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Banking Sector’s Assets in Turkey (% GDP)
272
163
38
159
105
62
5
60
Assets/GDP
Loans/GDP
Housing Loans/GDP
Deposits/GDP
Banking Sector’s Comparison with Euro Area
(%, 2019)
EA-19
Turkey
37
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