Gresham "Group 150" - September 2010

14
SEPTEMBER 2010 1 ASX RESOURCES - GROUP 150 We are pleased to present the September edition of ‘Group 150’, a ranking of the top 150 ASX listed resources companies (excluding oil and gas), by market capitalisation. The market value of the Group 150 at the end of August was $485 billion, down 1.7% from July. The entry point into the Group 150 for August was $77.2 million versus $77.0 million for July. The ASX/S&P 200 Resources Index fell 2.1% in the month, while the ASX All Ordinaries and ASX/S&P 200 Index decreased 1.5% and 2.0% respectively. We started the month at Diggers and Dealers in Kalgoorlie, where over 2,200 delegates met to discuss the current and future direction of the Australian resources sector. Overall, sentiment was positive, with a renewed interest and focus in particular on the Australian and West African gold sectors. Of course, politics – and the broader issue of sovereign risk - was front in Kalgoorlie. In this edition of the Group 150, we have updated the “MRRT-impact” chart from the August edition, to determine whether the market capitalisation of the constituents of the Group 150 have recovered following the election. While the outcome is yet to be determined, we expect that the market is increasingly assuming that the MRRT, as presently conceived, is unlikely to see the light of day, at least for the next term of parliament. The average market value of domestic focussed companies since the proposed MRRT was announced has increased 20.0% (vs 15.4% July). International focused companies increased 14.1% (vs an increase of 7.6% in July). As directors, managers, advisors and (occasionally) investors, we spend considerable time seeking to identify opportunities for future growth. But every now and then it is worthwhile looking in the mirror to evaluate past performance. In this edition, we examine the economic performance of a group of major Australian mining companies across a variety of commodities over a 20 year period from January 1990 (note there is a relatively small population of “survivors” over this period from which to chose). Economic performance has been measured by calculating, in real US$ terms, the rate of return enjoyed by shareholders through both capital appreciation and dividends over various periods. At various five year intervals, we assess for 6 companies, the total return to shareholders against an industry cost of capital, estimated at around 8%pa in real terms. Real rates of return are useful in showing relative performance without the camouflage of inflation, and can be used to gauge the results of the implementation of certain strategies, or exploration success, against competitor performance over the same period of time. Gresham Advisory Partners Limited GROUP 150 September 2010 Edition 6 Darren Martin Gresham Advisory Partners [email protected] +61 8 9486 7077 +61 412 144 719 Gresham Advisory Partners is a leading Australian mergers and acquisitions/corporate advisory business and one of Australia’s largest and highest ranking independent corporate advisors.

description

Gresham Group 150 - September Edition

Transcript of Gresham "Group 150" - September 2010

Page 1: Gresham "Group 150" - September 2010

SEPTEMBER 2010

1

ASX RESOURCES - GROUP 150We are pleased to present the September edition of ‘Group 150’, a ranking of the top 150 ASX listed resources companies (excluding oil and gas), by market capitalisation.

The market value of the Group 150 at the end of August was $485 billion, down 1.7% from July. The entry point into the Group 150 for August was $77.2 million versus $77.0 million for July. The ASX/S&P 200 Resources Index fell 2.1% in the month, while the ASX All Ordinaries and ASX/S&P 200 Index decreased 1.5% and 2.0% respectively.

We started the month at Diggers and Dealers in Kalgoorlie, where over 2,200 delegates met to discuss the current and future direction of the Australian resources sector. Overall, sentiment was positive, with a renewed interest and focus in particular on the Australian and West African gold sectors. Of course, politics – and the broader issue of sovereign risk - was front in Kalgoorlie.

In this edition of the Group 150, we have updated the “MRRT-impact” chart from the August edition, to determine whether the market capitalisation of the constituents of the Group 150 have recovered following the election. While the outcome is yet to be determined, we expect that the market is increasingly assuming that the MRRT, as presently conceived, is unlikely to see the light of day, at least for the next term of parliament. The average market value of domestic focussed companies since the proposed MRRT was announced has increased 20.0% (vs 15.4% July). International focused companies increased 14.1% (vs an increase of 7.6% in July).

As directors, managers, advisors and (occasionally) investors, we spend considerable time seeking to identify opportunities for future growth. But every now and then it is worthwhile looking in the mirror to evaluate past performance.

In this edition, we examine the economic performance of a group of major Australian mining companies across a variety of commodities over a 20 year period from January 1990 (note there is a relatively small population of “survivors” over this period from which to chose). Economic performance has been measured by calculating, in real US$ terms, the rate of return enjoyed by shareholders through both capital appreciation and dividends over various periods.

At various five year intervals, we assess for 6 companies, the total return to shareholders against an industry cost of capital, estimated at around 8%pa in real terms. Real rates of return are useful in showing relative performance without the camouflage of inflation, and can be used to gauge the results of the implementation of certain strategies, or exploration success, against competitor performance over the same period of time.

Gresham Advisory Partners Limited

Group 150

September 2010

Edition 6

Darren MartinGresham Advisory [email protected]+61 8 9486 7077+61 412 144 719

Gresham Advisory Partners is a leading Australian mergers and acquisitions/corporate advisory business and one of Australia’s largest and highest ranking independent corporate advisors.

Page 2: Gresham "Group 150" - September 2010

Top 150 ASX LiSTed reSource compAnieS - AuGuSTBy Market Capitalisation

Group 150

2

Mkt Cap (A$m) % Mkt Cap (A$m) %

Aug Jul Company 31-Aug-10 31-Jul-10 Change Aug Jul Company 31-Aug-10 31-Jul-10 Change

1 1 BHP Billiton Ltd. (ASX:BHP) $206,195.2 $223,280.7 (7.7%) 51 49 Gujarat NRE Coking Coal Limited (ASX:GNM) $533.8 $551.6 (3.2%)

2 2 Rio Tinto Ltd. (ASX:RIO) $137,500.1 $138,517.0 (0.7%) 52 58 Regis Resources Limited (ASX:RRL) $518.1 $393.7 31.6%

3 3 Newcrest Mining Ltd. (ASX:NCM) $18,010.4 $15,815.3 13.9% 53 51 Panoramic Resources Ltd. (ASX:PAN) $492.6 $504.9 (2.4%)

4 4 Fortescue Metals Group Ltd. (ASX:FMG) $14,543.6 $13,331.1 9.1% 54 53 Northern Iron Limited (ASX:NFE) $477.7 $444.2 7.5%

5 5 Lihir Gold Limited (ASX:LGL) $10,611.9 $9,640.7 10.1% 55 55 Kagara Ltd (ASX:KZL) $442.4 $438.4 0.9%

6 6 Coal & Allied Industries Ltd. (ASX:CNA) $8,468.0 $8,398.7 0.8% 56 70 Sphere Minerals Limited (ASX:SPH) $428.4 $272.4 57.3%

7 9 Alumina Ltd. (ASX:AWC) $4,184.9 $3,782.3 10.6% 57 54 Brockman Resources Limited (ASX:BRM) $427.6 $438.6 (2.5%)

8 7 New Hope Corp. Ltd. (ASX:NHC) $3,844.0 $3,898.6 (1.4%) 58 56 Giralia Resources NL (ASX:GIR) $419.1 $429.7 (2.5%)

9 8 OZ Minerals Limited (ASX:OZL) $3,807.6 $3,838.8 (0.8%) 59 63 Allied Gold Ltd. (ASX:ALD) $395.2 $332.8 18.8%

10 10 Equinox Minerals Ltd. (ASX:EQN) $3,475.0 $3,566.7 (2.6%) 60 59 Sundance Resources Ltd. (ASX:SDL) $392.9 $392.9 0.0%

11 11 MacArthur Coal Ltd. (ASX:MCC) $3,299.2 $3,179.2 3.8% 61 60 Straits Resources Ltd. (ASX:SRL) $384.1 $362.4 6.0%

12 13 Whitehaven Coal Limited (ASX:WHC) $2,952.0 $2,675.6 10.3% 62 65 Silver Lake Resources Limited (ASX:SLR) $377.3 $319.6 18.1%

13 15 Aquila Resources Ltd. (ASX:AQA) $2,739.3 $2,384.8 14.9% 63 62 Indophil Resources NL (ASX:IRN) $359.9 $336.6 6.9%

14 21 Andean Resources Ltd. (ASX:AND) $2,690.7 $1,744.1 54.3% 64 61 Bougainville Copper Ltd. (ASX:BOC) $356.9 $344.9 3.5%

15 12 Paladin Energy, Ltd. (ASX:PDN) $2,663.4 $2,761.0 (3.5%) 65 57 Mincor Resources NL (ASX:MCR) $347.1 $396.4 (12.4%)

16 14 Energy Resources of Australia Ltd. (ASX:ERA) $2,508.2 $2,628.4 (4.6%) 66 74 Intrepid Mines Limited (ASX:IAU) $335.7 $257.8 30.2%

17 16 Centennial Coal Co. Ltd. (ASX:CEY) $2,382.0 $2,362.3 0.8% 67 78 Ampella Mining Limited (ASX:AMX) $334.3 $238.8 40.0%

18 18 Iluka Resources Ltd. (ASX:ILU) $2,315.1 $2,292.4 1.0% 68 66 Resolute Mining Ltd. (ASX:RSG) $329.9 $304.3 8.4%

19 19 Aquarius Platinum Ltd. (ASX:AQP) $2,181.8 $2,195.0 (0.6%) 69 72 Integra Mining Ltd. (ASX:IGR) $321.3 $260.8 23.2%

20 17 Riversdale Mining Ltd. (ASX:RIV) $2,150.3 $2,349.2 (8.5%) 70 64 NKWE Platinum Ltd. (ASX:NKP) $305.0 $326.8 (6.7%)

21 20 Mount Gibson Iron Ltd. (ASX:MGX) $1,877.8 $1,792.1 4.8% 71 69 Cockatoo Coal Limited (ASX:COK) $298.2 $277.2 7.6%

22 22 PanAust Limited (ASX:PNA) $1,742.9 $1,683.7 3.5% 72 46 CuDeco Ltd. (ASX:CDU) $288.7 $631.8 (54.3%)

23 24 Lynas Corp. Ltd. (ASX:LYC) $1,623.1 $1,258.2 29.0% 73 88 Bandanna Energy Limited (ASX:BND) $284.7 $211.6 34.5%

24 26 Gloucester Coal Ltd. (ASX:GCL) $1,604.0 $1,020.4 57.2% 74 68 Aditya Birla Minerals Limited (ASX:ABY) $275.8 $278.9 (1.1%)

25 23 Extract Resources Ltd. (ASX:EXT) $1,474.4 $1,627.4 (9.4%) 75 76 Discovery Metals Ltd. (ASX:DML) $262.7 $244.6 7.4%

26 0 Aston Resources Limited (ASX:AZT) $1,207.7 - - 76 75 Catalpa Resources Limited (ASX:CAH) $262.0 $247.4 5.9%

27 25 Zimplats Holdings Ltd. (ASX:ZIM) $1,184.0 $1,076.4 10.0% 77 67 Coalspur Mines Limited (ASX:CPL) $260.3 $290.8 (10.5%)

28 31 Perseus Mining Ltd. (ASX:PRU) $1,158.6 $880.4 31.6% 78 73 CBH Resources Ltd. (ASX:CBH) $258.8 $258.7 0.0%

29 27 Kingsgate Consolidated Limited (ASX:KCN) $1,009.0 $984.6 2.5% 79 71 Moly Mines Ltd. (ASX:MOL) $252.9 $265.7 (4.8%)

30 29 Atlas Iron Limited (ASX:AGO) $990.2 $952.3 4.0% 80 83 Kingsrose Mining Limited (ASX:KRM) $240.2 $220.1 9.1%

31 36 White Energy Company Limited (ASX:WEC) $980.6 $781.3 25.5% 81 86 Rex Minerals Limited. (ASX:RXM) $236.0 $218.5 8.0%

32 32 Western Areas NL (ASX:WSA) $927.0 $871.7 6.3% 82 80 Dominion Mining Limited (ASX:DOM) $228.4 $229.4 (0.4%)

33 37 Avoca Resources Ltd. (ASX:AVO) $866.9 $765.0 13.3% 83 102 Gryphon Minerals Ltd. (ASX:GRY) $226.9 $158.8 42.9%

34 28 Minara Resources Ltd. (ASX:MRE) $864.3 $957.8 (9.8%) 84 91 Saracen Mineral Holdings Limited (ASX:SAR) $225.9 $193.0 17.0%

35 30 Ivanhoe Australia Limited (ASX:IVA) $834.9 $930.8 (10.3%) 85 85 Troy Resources NL (ASX:TRY) $221.3 $218.7 1.2%

36 39 Citadel Resource Group Limited (ASX:CGG) $804.8 $710.1 13.3% 86 93 Adamus Resources Ltd. (ASX:ADU) $218.6 $191.1 14.4%

37 42 OceanaGold Corporation (ASX:OGC) $801.0 $652.6 22.7% 87 81 Perilya Ltd. (ASX:PEM) $217.7 $228.2 (4.6%)

38 41 OM Holdings Limited (ASX:OMH) $757.1 $701.5 7.9% 88 82 Cape Lambert Resources Limited (ASX:CFE) $212.8 $225.3 (5.5%)

39 33 Gindalbie Metals Ltd. (ASX:GBG) $756.1 $824.0 (8.2%) 89 90 Arafura Resources Limited (ASX:ARU) $210.7 $206.3 2.1%

40 38 Medusa Mining Limited (ASX:MML) $750.1 $727.6 3.1% 90 87 Gold One International Limited (ASX:GDO) $209.6 $217.7 (3.7%)

41 40 CGA Mining Limited (ASX:CGX) $709.0 $705.7 0.5% 91 92 Metals X Limited (ASX:MLX) $204.8 $191.2 7.1%

42 45 Sandfire Resources (ASX:SFR) $672.0 $636.5 5.6% 92 97 Iron Ore Holdings Limited (ASX:IOH) $202.4 $176.0 15.0%

43 43 Grange Resources Limited (ASX:GRR) $645.2 $645.0 0.0% 93 77 Platinum Australia Limited (ASX:PLA) $202.3 $239.2 (15.4%)

44 48 ST Barbara Ltd. (ASX:SBM) $634.8 $586.0 8.3% 94 96 Flinders Mines Limited. (ASX:FMS) $200.2 $182.0 10.0%

45 44 Independence Gold NL (ASX:IGO) $622.6 $637.4 (2.3%) 95 84 Galaxy Resources (ASX:GXY) $196.3 $220.1 (10.8%)

46 35 Mirabela Nickel Ltd. (ASX:MBN) $622.3 $782.1 (20.4%) 96 79 Deep Yellow Ltd. (ASX:DYL) $191.4 $230.8 (17.1%)

47 34 Murchison Metals Limited (ASX:MMX) $605.2 $796.8 (24.0%) 97 94 Jabiru Metals Limited (ASX:JML) $184.9 $190.4 (2.9%)

48 47 Mantra Resources Limited (ASX:MRU) $579.5 $589.9 (1.8%) 98 89 Sylvania Resources Ltd. (ASX:SLV) $184.7 $210.1 (12.1%)

49 50 Summit Resources Ltd. (ASX:SMM) $541.1 $511.1 5.9% 99 115 Ramelius Resources Ltd. (ASX:RMS) $180.4 $125.1 44.2%

50 52 Mineral Deposits Ltd. (ASX:MDL) $539.9 $447.0 20.8% 100 106 Beadell Resources Ltd (ASX:BDR) $180.4 $139.9 28.9%

Includes ASX Resource companies excluding oil and gas

Page 3: Gresham "Group 150" - September 2010

SEPTEMBER 2010

3

new enTrAnTS - AuGuST eXiTS - AuGuST26 Aston Resources Limited (ASX:AZT)102 Tanami Gold NL (ASX:TAM)146 Sihayo Gold Limited (ASX:SIH)149 Crescent Gold Limited (ASX:CRE)150 Pluton Resources Limited (ASX:PLV)

Based on market capitalisation as at 31 August 2010 vs 31 July 2010

Mkt Cap (A$m) % Mkt Cap (A$m) %

Aug Jul Company 31-Aug-10 31-Jul-10 Change Aug Jul Company 31-Aug-10 31-Jul-10 Change

101 101 Highlands Pacific Limited (ASX:HIG) $177.6 $163.9 8.4% 126 123 Australasian Resources Ltd (ASX:ARH) $110.5 $108.3 2.0%

102 163 Tanami Gold NL (ASX:TAM) $174.8 $67.2 160.1% 127 117 Norton Gold Fields Limited (ASX:NGF) $109.5 $118.9 (7.9%)

103 98 Berkeley Resources Ltd. (ASX:BKY) $174.2 $174.2 0.0% 128 121 IMX Resources Ltd. (ASX:IXR) $109.3 $113.2 (3.4%)

104 95 Orocobre Limited (ASX:ORE) $171.2 $186.7 (8.3%) 129 141 Guildford Coal Limited (ASX:GUF) $104.4 $84.6 23.4%

105 99 FerrAus Ltd. (ASX:FRS) $164.6 $168.7 (2.4%) 130 132 Jupiter Mines Ltd. (ASX:JMS) $101.6 $92.3 10.1%

106 134 Exco Resources Ltd. (ASX:EXS) $161.1 $92.0 75.1% 131 122 Kangaroo Resources Limited (ASX:KRL) $97.6 $113.2 (13.8%)

107 100 Metminco Limited. (ASX:MNC) $158.7 $167.1 (5.0%) 132 142 Citigold Corporation Limited (ASX:CTO) $97.5 $83.6 16.6%

108 107 BC Iron Limited (ASX:BCI) $144.3 $138.0 4.6% 133 131 Bendigo Mining Ltd. (ASX:BDG) $96.8 $94.3 2.7%

109 104 Hunnu Coal Limited (ASX:HUN) $143.4 $151.4 (5.3%) 134 126 Toro Energy Ltd (ASX:TOE) $95.5 $101.3 (5.7%)

110 110 Golden West Resources Limited (ASX:GWR) $141.9 $132.0 7.5% 135 140 Robust Resources Limited (ASX:ROL) $94.4 $85.2 10.8%

111 108 Mungana Goldmines Ltd (ASX:MUX) $141.3 $133.5 5.8% 136 124 Reed Resources Ltd. (ASX:RDR) $94.2 $103.7 (9.2%)

112 114 Tiger Resources Ltd. (ASX:TGS) $137.2 $125.2 9.6% 137 128 Nyota Minerals Limited (ASX:NYO) $93.8 $99.9 (6.1%)

113 113 Nucoal Resources NL (ASX:NCR) $134.9 $126.1 7.0% 138 139 Chalice Gold Mines Ltd. (ASX:CHN) $90.5 $86.9 4.1%

114 103 Red 5 Ltd. (ASX:RED) $131.9 $151.5 (12.9%) 139 127 Terramin Australia Ltd. (ASX:TZN) $89.7 $101.3 (11.5%)

115 118 Conquest Mining Limited (ASX:CQT) $128.9 $118.3 9.0% 140 129 Resource Generation Limited (ASX:RES) $89.6 $98.6 (9.1%)

116 109 Hillgrove Resources Ltd. (ASX:HGO) $125.5 $132.7 (5.4%) 141 135 Magma Metals Ltd. (ASX:MMW) $88.0 $91.9 (4.2%)

117 116 Astron Ltd. (ASX:ATR) $124.5 $121.2 2.7% 142 125 Talisman Mining Ltd (ASX:TLM) $87.6 $102.3 (14.4%)

118 130 Thundelarra Exploration Ltd. (ASX:THX) $123.6 $97.7 26.5% 143 133 Morning Star Gold NL (ASX:MCO) $85.7 $92.1 (6.9%)

119 112 Red Hill Iron Ltd (ASX:RHI) $123.0 $128.3 (4.1%) 144 136 Western Plains Resources Limited (ASX:WPG) $82.8 $91.3 (9.3%)

120 105 Northern Energy Corporation Ltd (ASX:NEC) $121.4 $141.3 (14.1%) 145 144 Aussie Q Resources Limited (ASX:AQR) $81.3 $78.7 3.3%

121 111 Focus Minerals Limited (ASX:FML) $120.2 $128.9 (6.7%) 146 153 Sihayo Gold Limited (ASX:SIH) $79.4 $71.8 10.6%

122 145 Azumah Resources Ltd (ASX:AZM) $117.9 $78.3 50.6% 147 149 Energy Metals Limited (ASX:EME) $79.2 $74.5 6.3%

123 119 Alliance Resources Ltd. (ASX:AGS) $112.6 $117.7 (4.3%) 148 143 Stanmore Coal Limited (ASX:SMR) $79.2 $81.1 (2.3%)

124 138 Alkane Resources Limited (ASX:ALK) $112.1 $88.4 26.8% 149 162 Crescent Gold Limited (ASX:CRE) $77.5 $68.2 13.6%

125 120 Centrex Metals Limited (ASX:CXM) $111.7 $117.1 (4.6%) 150 165 Pluton Resources Limited (ASX:PLV) $77.2 $65.5 17.9%

Group 150 LeAderS And LAGGerS - mArkeT cApiTALiSATion performAnce - AuGuST

Leaders Laggers

Source: Capital IQ

* Included placement, acquisition and/or material option conversion during month

Bannerman Resources Limited (ASX:BMN)Energy and Minerals Australia Limited (ASX:EMA)Continental Coal Limited (ASX:CCC)North Australian Diamonds Limited (ASX:NAD)Strike Resources Limited (ASX:SRK)

Page 4: Gresham "Group 150" - September 2010

Group 150

4

Group 150 SecTor mArkeT cApiTALiSATion - AuGuST

merGer & AcquiSiTionS - Announced in AuGuST

Date Announced Target Acquirer Value

(A$m)

Percent Sought

(%)

Premium - 1 Day Prior

(%)

Premium - 1 Month Prior

(%)

Consideration Offered

24-Aug-2010 Sphere Minerals Ltd. (ASX:SPH) Xstrata plc (LSE:XTA) 482.1 100.0 61.3 61.3 Cash

Source: Capital IQ Announced Australian Resources (excluding oil and gas) Mergers and Acquisitions >A$10m

Group 150 mArkeT cApiTALiSATion

ASX indeX performAnce - AuGuST

Mar

ket C

apit

alis

atio

n (A

$b)

Page 5: Gresham "Group 150" - September 2010

SEPTEMBER 2010

5

Economic Performance (1 Jan 1990 to 30 June 2010) BHP Billiton Coal & Allied ERA Iluka Newcrest Rio Tinto

Real US$ Total Returns from US$1 invested on 1 Jan 1990 US$10.77 US$21.48 US$4.03 US$2.32 US$5.20 US$9.49

Index return at cost of capital 8% pa (real) US$4.81 US$4.81 US$4.81 US$4.81 US$4.81 US$4.81

Investment return (US$ real terms) US$5.96 US$16.67 US$(0.78) US$(2.49) US$0.39 US$4.68

20 YeAr economic performAnce VerSuS 8% reAL inVeSTmenT reTurn (uS$ reAL)

0100200300400500600700800900

10001100120013001400150016001700

Jan-90 Jan-92 Jan-94 Jan-96 Jan-98 Jan-00 Jan-02 Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-10

Rio Tinto

Rio Tinto 20 Years 15 Years 10 Years 5 Years

Indexed to 100

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Jan-90 Jan-92 Jan-94 Jan-96 Jan-98 Jan-00 Jan-02 Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-10

Newcrest

Newcrest 20 Years 15 Years 10 Years 5 Years

Indexed to 100

0

100

200

300

400

500

Jan-90 Jan-92 Jan-94 Jan-96 Jan-98 Jan-00 Jan-02 Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-10

Iluka

Iluka 20 Years 15 Years 10 Years 5 Years

Indexed to 100

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

Jan-90 Jan-92 Jan-94 Jan-96 Jan-98 Jan-00 Jan-02 Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-10

ERA

ERA 20 Years 15 Years 10 Years 5 Years

Indexed to 100

0200400600800

10001200140016001800200022002400

Jan-90 Jan-92 Jan-94 Jan-96 Jan-98 Jan-00 Jan-02 Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-10

Coal & Allied

Coal & Allied 20 Years 15 Years 10 Years 5 Years

Indexed to 100

0100200300400500600700800900

10001100120013001400

Jan-90 Jan-92 Jan-94 Jan-96 Jan-98 Jan-00 Jan-02 Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-10

BHP Billiton

BHP Billiton 20 Years 15 Years 10 Years 5 Years

Indexed to 100

The charts below reflect the total returns to shareholders (including capital appreciation and dividends) versus an estimated industry cost of capital of around 8% pa in real terms, commencing at various 5 years intervals over the past 20 years.

While performance over shorter periods varies with commodity cycles, a majority of the selected companies have met or exceeded the hurdle for each of the various time frames, greatly assisted by the recent demand growth driven by China.

Source: Gresham. US$ real returns. Share prices adjusted by US CPI. Returns calculated from 1 Jan 1990

Page 6: Gresham "Group 150" - September 2010

Group 150

6

The “MRRT-Impact” chart below, assesses the impact on market capitalisation of the Group 150 companies since the announcement of the MRRT. The rebound witnessed last month has been further enhanced following the election. While the outcome is yet to be determined, we expect that the market is increasingly assuming that the MRRT, as presently conceived, is unlikely to see the light of day, at least for the next term of parliament. The average market value of domestic focussed companies since the proposed MRRT was announced has rebounded 20.0% (vs 15.4% at the end of July), while international focussed peers increased 14.1% (vs 7.6% at the end of July). Global diversified companies have also recovered 13.7% (vs 14.3% at the end of July) during the same period.

Group 150 - “mrrT impAcT” - BASed on projecT/S LocATion

Only 148 companies in August data set as Astron Resources and Guildford Coal were new IPO’s during the periodOnly 149 companies in July data set as Guildford Coal was new IPO’s during the period

Greater proportion ofDomestic focussed companies

Monthly Performance Overseas Domestic Overseas/ Domestic Total

End of August

Spread of "Group 150" by Project/s Location 47 85 16 148

- Simple Average Return 14.1% 20.0% 13.7%

End of July

Spread of "Group 150" by Project/s Location 49 84 16 149

- Simple Average Return 7.6% 15.4% 14.3%

Mar

ket C

apit

alis

atio

n -

Perf

orm

ance

Sin

ce P

ropo

sed

MRR

T A

nnou

nced

Page 7: Gresham "Group 150" - September 2010

SEPTEMBER 2010

7

Share Price Performance - August 2010

Share Price Performance - Since 30 June 2010

Share Price Performance - Since 1 Jan 2010

BASe meTALS - SecTor performAnce

Shar

e Pric

e Per

form

ance

Shar

e Pric

e Per

form

ance

Shar

e Pric

e Per

form

ance

Copper Nickel Zinc

Page 8: Gresham "Group 150" - September 2010

Group 150

8

Share Price Performance - August 2010

Share Price Performance - Since 30 June 2010

Share Price Performance - Since 1 Jan 2010

coAL - SecTor performAnce

Shar

e Pric

e Per

form

ance

Shar

e Pric

e Per

form

ance

Shar

e Pric

e Per

form

ance

Page 9: Gresham "Group 150" - September 2010

SEPTEMBER 2010

9

Share Price Performance - August 2010

Share Price Performance - Since 30 June 2010

Share Price Performance - Since 1 Jan 2010

diVerSified - SecTor performAnce

Shar

e Pric

e Per

form

ance

Shar

e Pric

e Per

form

ance

Shar

e Pric

e Per

form

ance

induSTriAL minerALS - SecTor performAnce

Shar

e Pric

e Per

form

ance

Shar

e Pric

e Per

form

ance

Shar

e Pric

e Per

form

ance

Page 10: Gresham "Group 150" - September 2010

Group 150

10

Share Price Performance - August 2010

Share Price Performance - Since 30 June 2010

Share Price Performance - Since 1 Jan 2010

GoLd - SecTor performAnce

Shar

e Pric

e Per

form

ance

Shar

e Pric

e Per

form

ance

Shar

e Pric

e Per

form

ance

Page 11: Gresham "Group 150" - September 2010

SEPTEMBER 2010

11

Share Price Performance - August 2010

Share Price Performance - Since 30 June 2010

Share Price Performance - Since 1 Jan 2010

iron ore - SecTor performAnce

Shar

e Pric

e Per

form

ance

Shar

e Pric

e Per

form

ance

Shar

e Pric

e Per

form

ance

Page 12: Gresham "Group 150" - September 2010

Group 150

12

Share Price Performance - August 2010

Share Price Performance - Since 30 June 2010

Share Price Performance - Since 1 Jan 2010

urAnium - SecTor performAnce

Shar

e Pric

e Per

form

ance

Shar

e Pric

e Per

form

ance

Shar

e Pric

e Per

form

ance

Page 13: Gresham "Group 150" - September 2010

SEPTEMBER 2010

13

conSenSuS commodiTY price forecASTS - August

Source: Bloomberg Consensus Estimates - Median / High / Low

Gold (US$/oz) Silver (US$/OZ)

Copper (US$/lb) Nickel (US$/lb)

Zinc (US$/lb) Lead (US$/lb)

Tin (US$/lb) Uranium (US$/lb)

AUD:USD NYMEX (US$/bbl)

$1,235 $1,248 $1,071 $1,050 $946

$0

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

Spot 2010 2011 2012 2013

$18.91 $19.50$16.45 $17.90 $16.19

$0$5

$10$15$20$25$30

Spot 2011 2012 2013 2014

$3.38 $3.53 $3.52$3.05

$3.80

$0.00

$1.00

$2.00

$3.00

$4.00

$5.00

Spot 2011 2012 2013 2014

$9.55 $9.61$11.00

$8.50 $9.00

$0.00

$4.00

$8.00

$12.00

$16.00

Spot 2011 2012 2013 2014

$0.95 $1.07$1.22

$1.02 $1.10

$0.00

$0.50

$1.00

$1.50

$2.00

Spot 2011 2012 2013 2014

$0.95 $1.07 $1.13$0.98 $1.00

$0.00

$0.50

$1.00

$1.50

$2.00

Spot 2011 2012 2013 2014

$9.82$8.32 $8.70

$7.29$8.48

$0.00

$2.50

$5.00

$7.50

$10.00

$12.50

Spot 2011 2012 2013 2014

$46.50$62.00 $63.25 $57.10 $53.30

$0

$25

$50

$75

$100

Spot 2011 2012 2013 2014

$0.89 $0.86 $0.90 $0.81 $0.79

$0.00

$0.25

$0.50

$0.75

$1.00

$1.25

Spot 2011 2012 2013 2014

$73.51 $85.00 $95.50 $97.63 $88.38

$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

Spot 2011 2012 2013 2014

Page 14: Gresham "Group 150" - September 2010

Group 150

14

Gresham Advisory Partners LimitedA.B.N. 97 003 344 269

Level 17, 167 Macquarie Street,

Sydney NSW 2000

Telephone: 61 2 9221 5133

Facsimile: 61 2 9221 6814

Level 10, 1 Collins Street,

Melbourne VIC 3000

Telephone: 61 3 9664 0300

Facsimile: 61 3 9650 7722

Level 3, 28 The Esplanade,

Perth WA 6000

Telephone: 61 8 9486 7077

Facsimile: 61 8 9486 7024

Website: www.gresham.com.au

Terms and ConditionsInformation contained in this publicationThe opinions, advice, recommendations and other information contained in this publication, whether express or implied, are published or made by Gresham Advisory Partners Limited (ABN 88 093 611 413), Australian financial services license (247113), and by its officers and employees (collectively “Gresham Advisory Partners”) in good faith in relation to the facts known to it at the time of preparation. Gresham Advisory Partners has prepared this publication without consideration of the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any individual investor, and you should not rely on the publication for the purpose of making a financial decision. To whom this information is providedThis publication is only made available to persons who are wholesale clients within the meaning of section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001. This publication is supplied on the condition that it is not passed on to any person who is a retail client within the meaning of section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001.Disclaimer and limitation of liabilityTo the maximum extent permitted by law, Gresham Advisory Partners will not be liable in any way for any loss or damage suffered by you through use or reliance on this information. Gresham Advisory Partners’ liability for negligence, breach of contract or contravention of any law, which cannot be lawfully excluded, is limited, at Gresham Advisory Partners’ option and to the maximum extent permitted by law, to resupplying this information or any part of it to you, or to paying for the resupply of this information or any part of it to you.No warranties made as to contentGresham Advisory Partners makes no warranty, express or implied, concerning this publication. The publication provided by us on an “AS IS” basis at your sole risk. Gresham Advisory Partners expressly disclaims, to the maximum extent permitted by law, any implied warranty of merchant-ability or fitness for a particular purpose, including any warranty for the use or the results of the use of the publication with respect to its correctness, quality, accuracy, completeness, or reliability.CopyrightCopyright in this publication is owned by Gresham Advisory Partners. You may use the information in this publication for your own personal use, but you must not (without Gresham Advisory Partners’ consent) alter, reproduce or distribute any part of this publication, transmit it to any other person or incorporate the information into any other document.General mattersThese Terms and Conditions are governed by the law in force in the State of Victoria, and the parties irrevocably submit to the non-exclusive jurisdiction of the courts of Victoria and courts of appeal from them for determining any disputes concerning the Terms and Conditions.If the whole or any part of a provision of these Terms and Conditions are void, unenforceable or illegal in a jurisdiction it is severed for that jurisdiction. The remainder of the Terms and Conditions have full force and effect and the validity or enforceability of that provision in any other jurisdiction is not affected. This clause has no effect if the severance alters the basic nature of the Terms and Conditions or is contrary to public policy.If Gresham Advisory Partners do not act in relation to a breach by you of these Terms and Conditions, this does not waive Gresham Advisory Partners’ right to act with respect to subsequent or similar breaches.

Advised BHP Billiton on its

$204m offer for United Minerals

Corporation.

Advised BG Group on its $1bn takeover offer for

Pure Energy Resources Limited.

Advised IAMGOLD Corporation on its $265m acquisition

of Gallery Gold.

Advised Gem Diamonds on its

$300m acquisition of Kimberley Diamonds.

Advised Polaris Metals NL on

$178m takeover offer by Mineral

Resources Limited.

Advised Tethyan on its $220m

competing takeover offer by Crosby and Antogafasta/Barrick.

Advised Iluka on its $114m

institutional placement and

$353m accelerated right issue.

Advised Bannerman

Resources on its financing with

Resource Capital Funds.

Advised Iluka Resources on its

$54m Narama coal divestment to

Xstrata.

Advised Murchison Metals

on its joint venture with Mitsubishi.

2010

2010

Advised BHP Billiton on its

US$116bn iron ore production

joint venture with Rio Tinto.

2010

Introduced Denham Capital to

Trans Tasman Resources resulting

in NZ iron sands investment.

2010

2009

Advised Indophil on $545m

recommended offer from Zijin

2010

Advised BHP Billiton on the disposal of the Yabulu Nickel

refinery.

2009

Advised Allied Gold on its $54m

acquisition of Australian

Solomons Gold.

2009

Advised Brandrill Limited on its

$45m takeover offer by Ausdrill

Limited.

2009

2008

Advised Kalahari Minerals on its

$140m proposed merger with

Extract Resources.

2008

Advised Centaurus

Resources on its $20m merger

with Glengarry Resources.

2010

2009/08

2008

Advised Summit Resources on its

A$1.2bn takeover by Paladin Energy.

2007

2008

2006

2007

2008

Advised Guandong Rising on its $216m

cornerstone investment in Pan

Aust.

GRAM2009

Advised Energy Metals on its $86m

proportional takeover offer by China

Guangdong Nuclear Power Group.

2009

Mergers and Acquisitions

Takeover Defence

Strategic Advisory, Joint Ventures and Capital Markets

recenT reSourceS TrAnSAcTionS

Takeover Defence

Strategic Advisory, Joint Ventures and Capital Markets

Mergers and Acquisitions