greenstreet berman

Communicating risk and engaging in discourse with a

lay audience.

Michael Wright, Director, Greenstreet Berman Ltd

www.greenstreet.co.ukMichael.wright@greenstreet.co.uk

T: 020 3102 2117

greenstreet berman

BSE (mad cow disease)

• Government dismissed uncertainty about level of risk due to:– fear of public over reaction; and– assumptions that public could not

understand uncertainty.• Risk characterisation was ambiguous and

hard to interpret.• Assumptions and basis for advice not

communicated.• Counter productive strategy led to loss of

trust & credibility.• Subsequent drip feed of new risk

information appeared forced upon government.

greenstreet berman

One Barnet

• ‘One Barnet’.• Alleged that no mention of

£600m outsourcing in any document.

• Court case verdict pending regarding alleged lack of consultation.

• 8,000 opposition petition.

greenstreet berman

2006 Energy Review• Successful judicial review by Greenpeace

– “offers no information whatsoever on what any new nuclear programme might look like and people are being asked to comment on the potential contribution of a new nuclear programme without any of the key aspects …..having been addressed”.

• Review decision process not transparent.• Consultation characterised as a sham (a ‘tick

box’ exercise), where the decision is already made and alternatives to nuclear power not considered.

• It was alleged:– lack of information disclosure.– debate about nuclear risks avoided.– consultation period too short.

greenstreet berman 2007 energy review consultation

Criticisms of new 2007 energy review consultation:• “This will change the consultation, this won't

affect the policy at all” (Tony Blair).• Run by DTI – who were committed to nuclear

power.• Twinned nuclear power with climate change

(underplaying point that NP “only” reduce CO2 by 4%).

• Market Research Board found that “..information was inaccurately or misleadingly presented, or was imbalanced, which gave rise to a material risk of respondents being led towards a particular answer.”– 'There have been no events relating to a

civil nuclear power station in the UK which have had any consequence outside the nuclear power station itself'.

greenstreet berman

NIREX

• Accusations of:–West Cumbria geologically

unsuitable.–Other better suited sites not

properly considered.– Information withheld.–Site selection process biased,

driven by a wish to locate repository at Sellafield.

greenstreet berman

Work related learning• Removal of duty on schools to

provide work related learning at key stage 4.

• 89% opposed the proposal.• Duty removed in 2012.• “It is difficult to see what the

purpose of the consultation exercise was if, despite this wholly unambiguous message, the DfE ploughs on with its policy regardless.”

greenstreet berman

Common themes

• Perception that decisions were made before consultation and/or despite opposition during consultation.

• Lack of transparency (breeds mistrust).• Communicator not seen as

independent.• Ambiguous information.• Counter productive reassurances.• Skip over uncertainty.• Perception of skewed questions.• Failure to address stakeholder

questions & concerns.

greenstreet berman Lessons learnt

• Status of consultation– Are consultation responses

binding?– Is majority response a criteria?– Is it meant to be

representative?• Framing the purpose of

consultation– To evaluate options?– To inform whether to proceed?– Help shape plans?– Check for unforeseen risks?– Sense check proposals?

What are you willing to change?

When to consult and on what?

What is role of consultation vs other inputs to decision?

greenstreet berman Stages of decision making vs purpose of

consultation

Breadth & purpose of consultatio

n

Purpose of consultation

• Information gathering & informing.

• Involve & use public expertise.

• Shared decision making.

• Sense checking.

• Fine tuning plans.

Stage of decision making

• Evaluating /scoping the problem.

• Identifying options.

• Assessing options.

• Refining & checking preferred option.

• Planning implementation.

greenstreet berman

Openness (transparency)

• Full disclosure early on– Avoid perception of enforced drip

feed of ‘with held’ information.• Key information

– Decision process;– Basis of identifying options;– Basis of assessments;– Assumptions; and– Uncertainties.

greenstreet berman

Communication• Communication is an

interaction .... an exchange of information:– Listening.– Showing you have listened.– Expressing empathy, respecting

concerns.• Avoiding accusations of

framing:– Open ended questions.– Bi polar questions.– Present facts, avoid opinions or

judgements.

greenstreet berman

Risk communication

• Nature of the hazard;• Who or what is at risk;• Magnitude of risk;• Likelihood;• Uncertainty;• Pictorial as well as words &

numbers; • Avoid judgments – actual or

implied.

greenstreet berman Flooding risk map

greenstreet berman

Uncertainty• Acknowledge uncertainty &

scientific disputes.• Identify uncertainties, source,

type & extent.• Indicate how uncertainties

change assessment outcomes.• Indicate how uncertainties are

included in risk assessments.• Be specific about how you are

trying to reduce uncertainties.

greenstreet berman

Risk perception

factorsInvoluntary, inescapable, inequitable, unfamiliar, uncertain,

contradictions, involuntary,

dreadful, vulnerable...

Subjective risk discourse• Subjective aspects of risk

discourse:– Why tolerate any risk?– Imposed risk.– Perceived control.– Who benefits, who

experiences risk.– Fairness.– Trust.– Confidence.

• Addressing prior beliefs:– If you do not address prior

beliefs whatever you say will be interpreted according to these prior beliefs, whether they are right or wrong.

– You need to know your audience!

greenstreet berman

Presenting risk levels

• Comparison with:– Standards.– Same type of hazard.– Put risk on scale of

similar risks.• Present risk estimates

from different sources.• Do not trivialise or

compare to different categories of risks.

• Don’t assume the audience understand the numbers.

Cycling 1 in 16,000

Sailing 1 in 20,000

Driving 1 in 50,000

Fire in the home 1 in 200,0000

Carbon monoxide poisoning 1 in 1,000,0000

Chance of death each year

greenstreet berman

Presenting risk levels

Railway accident killing 100 people

Frequency

1 in 20 years

Tidal surge overcomes Thames Barrier causing many deaths

1 in 1,000 years

Uncontrolled release of radiation from a nuclear power plant

1 in one million years

Canvey Island chemical plants

1 in 5,000 years

greenstreet berman Engaging people

• Knowing your audience:– Prior knowledge, interest &

concerns.• How to reach them & forms of

engagement.• Matching information to audience

segments.• Explaining how their input will be

used.• Transparent process of acting on

feedback.• Closing the ‘feedback loop’ -

feeding back how their input has been used.

greenstreet berman

Neutral• Messengers need to be seen as

independent.• Present results not judgments or

opinions on virtues of proposals.

More neutral Less neutral

Independently or jointly

funded/selected organisation or representative

body

Occasionally funded experts

Regular or

retained consultan

cy/ experts

‘Arm’ of the

owner of the

proposal

Owners of the

proposal

greenstreet berman

SPOCEN

• Status of the consultation.• Purpose of the consultation.• Openness.• Communication.• Engagement.• Neutrality.

greenstreet berman

Benefits of engagement• More informed and better quality decisions;• Ensuring decisions are rational, equitable and

defensible;• License to operate (social as well as

regulatory); • Establishing legitimacy for business practice;• Easing implementation;• Build trust;• Build shared understanding and agreements

with stakeholder groups;• Managing your reputation; • Improving understanding of attitudes and

behaviour; and • Minimising conflict, preventing

misunderstandings, avoiding delays.

greenstreet berman

Thank you