GREEN model Global Radiation Earth ENvironment · GREEN model Global Radiation Earth ENvironment...
Transcript of GREEN model Global Radiation Earth ENvironment · GREEN model Global Radiation Earth ENvironment...
1
GREEN model
Global Radiation Earth ENvironment(Version 1)
A. Sicard, S. Bourdarie, D. Boscher, V. Maget, D. Lazaro
R. Ecoffet, D. Standarovski
2
GREEN : Why a new model?
Existing global models:- AE8/AP8 (reference models) composed of one model in solar MAX and another model in solar MIN
- AE9/AP9 composed of a mean model or a perturbed or Monte-Carlo model with confidence levels
Existing local ONERA models:- Electron: SLOT (2.3<L<5) , OZONE (L>4), IGE-2006 (geostationary orbit), MEO-V2
- Proton: OPAL (<800 km) and IGP (GEO)
Why a new global model?:- To overcome the well-known deficiencies in the existing global models
(AE8/AP8)
- To deduce parameters linked to effects and to compare them with in-situ degradation measurements
- To compare with AE9/AP9
3
GREEN : How to proceed?
Main principles:
GREEN (V0) is a new model composed of different existing global and local models
A list of models has been defined to start with in the case of electrons and another one for protons. These two lists can be expanded and discussed at any time.
A 3 dimension grid in Energy, Blocal/Beq and L has been defined and represents the global architecture of GREEN. This 3D grid (Ec, B/BEq, L) is the same as Salammbô’s one with 133 steps in L, 133 steps in B/BEq and 49 steps in energy, in particular it allows a maximum cell size of 200 km.
Flux from each model integrated in GREEN have been calculated on this grid.
Then a priority order of the different models has been established accordingto space location or energy.
4
GREEN : Models contained in GREEN-e
L
Energy and L* (or L) coverage for models contained in GREEN-e:
Energ
ie [M
eV
]
SPM
0.001
0.01
0.1
1
10
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Slot
AE8
IGE2006
OZONE
AE8/10AE8*factor up
to 0.01
5
GREEN : Models contained in GREEN-p
Energy and L* (or L) coverage for models contained in GREEN-p:
L
Ene
rgie
[M
eV
]
0.01
0.1
1
10
100
1000
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
OPAL
AP8
0.001
SPM IGP
AP8
OPAL
SPM IGP
6
IGE-2006(ECSS standard for GEO)
SLOT
GREEN-eElectrons
GREEN-pProtons
OPAL
IGP(GEO)
GREEN
OZONEOuter zone
AP8AE8
GREEN : Overview of models contained in GREEN
7
GREEN : SLOT model (1/3)
Only few models in this region exist. AE8 iswell-known to under-estimate electron flux in this zone. New model was needed and has been developped in 2013 and improved in 2016 and 2017.
L=3LEO
This SLOT model is based on the correlation betweenflux at LEO orbit and flux along the magnetic field line
L=3LEO
Data used:37 years of data at LEO !!
Data used at LEO orbit
Data used at other orbits
Spacecraft Time coverage Energy channels
NOAA 6 SEM 07/197911/1986 >100 keV, >300 keV, >1.1 MeV
NOAA 10 SEM 10/198608/1991 >100 keV, >300 keV, >1.1 MeV
NOAA 12 SEM 06/199107/2002 >100 keV, >300 keV, >1.1 MeV
NOAA 15 SEM-2 07/1998présent >100 keV, >300 keV, >3 MeV
Spacecraft Time coverage Energy channels
CRRES 07/199010/1991 17 channels between 110keV and
1.58 MeV (MEA)
ICO 05/199408/2006 3 channels between 0.95 MeV and
3.5 MeV
HEO1 05/199408/2006 2 channels: >1.5 MeV et >3 MeV
HEO3 11/199705/2008 2 channels: >1.5MeV, >3MeV
RBSP-A 04/201312/2016 18 channels between 100 keV et
4.5 MeV
8
1.E+03
1.E+04
1.E+05
1.E+06
1.E+07
-6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4
Flu
x [c
m-2
.s-1
.sr-
1]
Year of solar cycle (min=0)
Flux 1979-1980
Flux 1981-1990
Flux 1991-2000
Flux 2001-2013
Flux 2014-2015
Mean Flux
Max Flux
E> 100 keV, 3.0<L*<3.1
GREEN : SLOT model (3/3)
1.E+02
1.E+03
1.E+04
1.E+05
1.E+06
1.E+07
1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014
Flu
x [c
m-2
.s-1
.sr-
1]
Year
2.0<L<2.1
2.1<L<2.2
2.2<L<2.3
2.3<L<2.4
2.4<L<2.5
2.5<L<2.6
2.6<L<2.7
2.7<L<2.8
2.8<L<2.9
2.9<L<3.0
3.0<L<3.1
3.1<L<3.2
3.2<L<3.3
3.3<L<3.4
3.4<L<3.5
3.5<L<3.6
3.6<L<3.7
3.7<L<3.8
3.8<L<3.9
3.9<L<4.0
F10.7
In 2016 and 2017 the SLOT model has been improved and reproduce the solar cycle modulation based on NOAA data:
Example at 100 keV:
1.E+02
1.E+03
1.E+04
1.E+05
1.E+06
1.E+07
1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014
Flu
x [c
m-2
.s-1
.sr-
1]
Year
2.0<L<2.1
2.1<L<2.2
2.2<L<2.3
2.3<L<2.4
2.4<L<2.5
2.5<L<2.6
2.6<L<2.7
2.7<L<2.8
2.8<L<2.9
2.9<L<3.0
3.0<L<3.1
3.1<L<3.2
3.2<L<3.3
3.3<L<3.4
3.4<L<3.5
3.5<L<3.6
3.6<L<3.7
3.7<L<3.8
3.8<L<3.9
3.9<L<4.0
F10.7
1.E+04
1.E+05
1.E+06
1.E+07
-6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4
Flu
x [c
m-2
.s-1
.sr-
1]
Year of the solar cycle (min=0)
2.0<L<2.1
2.1<L<2.2
2.2<L<2.3
2.3<L<2.4
2.4<L<2.5
2.5<L<2.6
2.6<L<2.7
2.7<L<2.8
2.8<L<2.9
2.9<L<3.0
3.0<L<3.1
3.1<L<3.2
3.2<L<3.3
3.3<L<3.4
3.4<L<3.5
3.5<L<3.6
3.6<L<3.7
3.7<L<3.8
3.8<L<3.9
3.9<L<4.0
E> 100 keV
1.E+03
1.E+04
1.E+05
1.E+06
1.E+07
-6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4
Flu
x [c
m-2
.s-1
.sr-
1]
Year of solar cycle (min=0)
Flux 1979-1980
Flux 1981-1990
Flux 1991-2000
Flux 2001-2013
Flux 2014-2015
Mean Flux
Max Flux
E> 100 keV, 3.0<L*<3.1E> 100 keV, 3.0<L*<3.1
1.E+03
1.E+04
1.E+05
1.E+06
1.E+07
-6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4
Flu
x [c
m-2
.s-1
.sr-
1]
Year of solar cycle (min=0)
Flux 1979-1980
Flux 1981-1990
Flux 1991-2000
Flux 2001-2013
Flux 2014-2015
1.E+03
1.E+04
1.E+05
1.E+06
1.E+07
-6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4
Flu
x [c
m-2
.s-1
.sr-
1]
Year of solar cycle (min=0)
1.E+03
1.E+04
1.E+05
1.E+06
1.E+07
-6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4
Flu
x [c
m-2
.s-1
.sr-
1]
Year of solar cycle (min=0)
9
GREEN : OZONE model (1/2)
OZONE : an outer belt electron model based on data assimilation :
OZONE =Salammbô physical model + data assimilation
Model valid for L*>4 and between 300 keV and 10 MeV, depending on the year of the solar cycle
10
GREEN : OZONE model (2/2)
Examples of results:
Comparison of omnidirectional differential fluxes for 3 energies function of altitude between OZONE and AE8 min.
Omnidirectional differential fluxes at magnetic equator in the outer electron belt versus year relative to solar minimum at L*=6
11
GREEN : IGE-2006 model
Model for electrons at geostationary orbit based on LANL data from 1976 to 2005:
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
janv-76 janv-80 janv-84 janv-88 janv-92 janv-96 janv-00 janv-04
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
janv-76 janv-80 janv-84 janv-88 janv-92 janv-96 janv-00 janv-04
1976-059CPA
1979-053
1981-0251982-019
1984-0371984-129
1987-0971989-046
1990-095
1991-080
1994-084
LANL-97A
LANL-01A
LANL-02A
SOPA ESP
1977-007
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
janv-76 janv-80 janv-84 janv-88 janv-92 janv-96 janv-00 janv-04
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
janv-76 janv-80 janv-84 janv-88 janv-92 janv-96 janv-00 janv-04
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
janv-76 janv-80 janv-84 janv-88 janv-92 janv-96 janv-00 janv-04
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
janv-76 janv-80 janv-84 janv-88 janv-92 janv-96 janv-00 janv-04
1976-059CPA
1979-053
1981-0251982-019
1984-0371984-129
1987-0971989-046
1990-095
1991-080
1994-084
LANL-97A
LANL-01A
LANL-02A
SOPA ESP
1977-007MPA + MPA + SOPA +
DRTS
1,E-03
1,E-02
1,E-01
1,E+00
1,E+01
1,E+02
1,E+03
1,E+04
1,E+05
1,E+06
1,E+07
1,E+08
-8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6
Year of the solar cycle (min = 0)
Flu
x (
ke
V-1
.cm
-2.s
r-1.s
-1)
1 keV
5.2 MeV
1.E-03
1.E-01
1.E+01
1.E+03
1.E+05
1.E+07
1.E+09
0.1 1 10 100 1000 10000
Energie (keV)
Flu
x (
ke
v-1
.cm
-2.s
r-1
.s-1
)
IGE-2006: Mean case
IGE-2006: Lower case
IGE-2006: Upper case
AE8 200° East
Extrapolation of AE8 at low energy
12
Monthly average 1 keV proton flux measured at GEO by the MPA detector on board the different LANL spacecraft
Monthly average 80 keVproton flux measured at GEO by the CPA detector on board the different LANL spacecraft
Monthly average 1 keV proton flux measured at GEO by the MPA detector on board the different LANL spacecraft
GREEN : IGP model
Model for protons at geostationary orbit based on LANL data from 1976 to 2005:
Monthly average 1 keV proton flux measured at GEO by the CPA detector on board the different LANL spacecraft
Proton model at geostationary orbit from 1 keV to 1 MeV
based on more than 3 solar cycles of LANL data
13
GREEN : OPAL (1/2)
ONERA had an opportunity to develop a high energy proton model at low-altitude with NOAA data:
- Measurements near 850km since July 1978 on NOAA spacecraft- Only two different detectors (SEM and SEM-2) with long time coverage and only few gaps
NOAA-12 in 1997P8 channel
Protons > 82 MeV
Flux [cm
-2.s-1.sr-1
]
102
101
100
Main strengths of these data sets:• 3 close energy channels on close orbits• 38 years of measurements(more than 3 solar cycles)• Detectors with well-known geometry• Well-known position of the detectors on the spacecraft
Description of the model
14
Two main steps in the model:- correction of the maximum pitch angle being seen at a given altitude and L due to the drift of
the magnetic field with time- calculation of the time delay between F10.7 radio flux and protons fluxes dynamics.
GREEN : OPAL (2/2)
Comparison between count rates of P8 channel versus time at Lm=1.300 for 2 equatorial pitch angles and results of model at E> 82 MeV.
Comparison between OPAL and data:
1
10
100
1000
10000
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
P8 C
oun
t ra
tes
(s-1
)
Year
NOAA P8 54.75°
model 54.75°
NOAA P8 63.75°
model 63.75°
1
10
100
1000
10000
1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008
année
tau
x d
e c
om
pta
ge P
8 (
s-1
)
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
Flu
x r
adio
sola
ire
63.75
59.25
54.75
51.75
F107
Evolution of count rates of P8 channel in the continuous NOAA data set for Lm=1.3 for different pitch angles and comparison with solar radio flux.
F10
.7
Co
un
t R
ates
(s-1
)
Year
15
Flu
x [
cm
-2.s
-1]
> 500 keV
xMAG
ZM
AG
1996
Flu
x [
cm
-2.s
-1]
> 500 keV
xMAG
ZM
AG
2003
GREEN : Example of results for GREEN-e
Meridian maps of >500 keV electron flux in 1996 (solar min) and 2003 (solar max):
> 500 keV
xMAG
ZM
AG
Nu
méro
du
mo
dè
le5
4
3
2
1
AE8 OZONE
SLOT
16
GREEN : Example of results for GREEN-e
Mapping of electron flux in 1996 (solar min) and 2003 (solar max) versus L* and Energy at equator:
SPM
AE8
SLOT OZONE
AE8corrected
SPM
AE8
SLOT OZONE
AE8corrected
17
Comparison of electron flux provided by GREEN-e and MEO-V2:
GREEN : Validation (1/3)
1.E-01
1.E+00
1.E+01
1.E+02
1.E+03
1.E+04
1.E+05
1.E+06
1.E+07
1.E+08
1.E+09
0.001 0.01 0.1 1 10
Ele
ctro
n f
lux
[cm
-2.s
-1]
Energy [MeV]
GREEN-e
MEO-V2 Mean
MEO-V2 Upper
Mean flux on a whole solar cycle (11 years)
18
GREEN : Validation (2/3)
Comparison of electron flux provided by GREEN-e and NOAA (at NOAA-15 orbit, 825 km, 98°):
1.E-03
1.E-02
1.E-01
1.E+00
1.E+01
1.E+02
1.E+03
1.E+04
1.E+05
1.E+06
1.E+07
1.E+08
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Flu
x [c
m-2
.s-1
]
L*
GREEN >30keV
GREEN >100 keV
GREEN >300 keV
GREEN >1 MeV
GREEN >3 MeV
NOAA >30 keV
NOAA >100 keV
NOAA >300 keV
NOAA >1 MeV
NOAA >3 MeV
For L*<2.5 and E>1 MeV NOAA-15 measures the background al well as for L*>6 and E >3 MeV
The comparison between NOAA data and flux provided by GREEN is good except for E>30 keV (AE8 is the default model in GREEN for this energy)
Mean flux during a whole solar cycle (1999-2010)
19
1.E+00
1.E+01
1.E+02
1.E+03
1.E+04
1.E+05
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Flu
x e
lect
ron
s [c
m-2
.s-1
]
L*
E > 2.02 MeV
GREEN-e entre year 0 et -5 JASON moyen entre 2009 et 2015
GREEN
JASON-2
Mean flux between 2009 and 2015
Discontinuity between SLOT and OZONE
1.00E-02
1.00E-01
1.00E+00
1.00E+01
1.00E+02
1.00E+03
1.00E+04
1.00E+05
1.00E+06
1.00E+07
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Ele
ctro
n F
lux
[cm
-2.s
-1]
L*
GREEN > 100 keV
GREEN > 300 keV
GREEN > 1 MeV
GREEN > 3 MeV
NOAA > 100 keV (2009-2015)
NOAA > 300 keV (2009-2015)
NOAA > 1 MeV (2009-2015)
NOAA > 3 MeV (2009-2015)
GREEN : Validation (3/3)
Comparison of electron flux provided by GREEN-e and JASON-2 (1336 km, 63°):
1.E+00
1.E+01
1.E+02
1.E+03
1.E+04
1.E+05
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Flu
x e
lect
ron
s [c
m-2
.s-1
]
L*
E > 2.02 MeV
GREEN-e entre year 0 et -5 JASON moyen entre 2009 et 2015
GREEN
JASON-2
Mean flux between 2009 and 2015
Mean NOAA flux during JASON-2 period (2009-2015)
Time period of JASON-2 is not
representative of a mean flux since
begining of space age in the Slot region
1.E-03
1.E-02
1.E-01
1.E+00
1.E+01
1.E+02
1.E+03
1.E+04
1.E+05
1.E+06
1.E+07
1.E+08
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Flu
x [c
m-2
.s-1
]
L*
GREEN >30keV
GREEN >100 keV
GREEN >300 keV
GREEN >1 MeV
GREEN >3 MeV
NOAA >30 keV
NOAA >100 keV
NOAA >300 keV
NOAA >1 MeV
NOAA >3 MeV
Mean NOAA flux during 1999-2010
20
GREEN : Conclusions and Perspectives
GREEN-e model is composed of AE8, SPM, SLOT, OZONE and IGE-2006 and is valid from 1 keV to 10 MeV
GREEN-p model is composed of AP8, SPM and OPAL and is valid from 1 keV to 650 MeV
GREEN in a solar cycle dependent model
New local models are needed where only AE8 and AP8 are available. Data with good quality and statistics are essential to hope for a reliable local model.
A ‘Worst case’ version is in progress and would provide worst fluxes along an orbit as EOR for example