Jennifer Read Member of International Joint Commission

Adaptive Management Task Team

University of Michigan Water Center and Great Lakes Observing System

IPPSR Public Policy Forum Wednesday, April 17, 2013

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• State of our knowledge about Great Lakes levels

• Overview of decision making challenges

• Overview of proposed way forward: an adaptive management approach

• Define adaptive management

• Proposed process and approach

• Conclusion

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Overview

Chart Datum

The Great Lakes – St. Lawrence River System is Dynamic Lakes Michigan-Huron Water Levels (IGLD 1985)

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Climate…and Uncertain Future

WETTER PROJECTIONS

DRIER PROJECTIONS

Water Level Decision Making is Complex

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Shoreline development in the hazard zone

Situation of marinas and boat launches

Design of shore protection

Infrastructure decisions

Encroachment

Big boats (more dredging)

Ecosystem implications

Additional Challenges

Big storms

Glacial isostatic adjustment

Changing Ice conditions

Natural changes in conveyance

Erosion and deposition

Changes in demographics

Decisions by neighbors

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Bing Maps

Two Ways to Address Extremes

1. Manage water levels and flows

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2. Manage response to the impacts of water levels and flows

Upper St. Lawrence R. (existing control point)

St. Marys R. (existing control point)

Regulation of Lake Superior Outflows at Sault Ste. Marie on St. Marys River Regulation of Lake Ontario

outflows At Moses-Saunders Dam on the St. Lawrence River

Two Regulation Plans

No one organization or jurisdiction is fully responsible for managing impacts of water levels

Much fragmentation, duplication and overlap

Limited effort to coordinate approaches and share successful approaches

Little focus on long-term implications of climate extremes and planning for uncertain future

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Response to Water Level Impacts

Institutional

Arrangements

Adaptive Management

Collaboration

Plan Act

Monitor

Evaluate Learn

Adjust

Continuous, iterative, systematic process Plan, Act, Monitor conditions, Evaluate, Learn (Review) and Adjust the plan if needed

Working together to solve problems

MI Sea Grant

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New approach to addressing water level issues

Intensively collaborative in nature

Coordinate and share critical information, develop adaptive strategies, measure success and adapt accordingly

Goal is to support decision making aimed at reducing the impacts associated with extreme water levels

Components of the Plan

1. Hydroclimate Monitoring and Modeling

2. Performance Indicators and Risk Assessment

3. Plan Evaluation and Decision Tools

4. Information Management and Distribution

5. Outreach and Engagement

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A more efficient and effective means to inform decisions aimed at reducing the impacts to communities, the economy and the environment from extreme lake levels by:

Allowing for on-going evaluation and update of lake regulation plans

Providing a forum for collaboration across jurisdictions, among agencies and stakeholders

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GLSLR Levels

Advisory Board

St. Lawrence Board

Superior Board

AM Committee (formal)

Niagara Board

Adaptive Management Pilots (at local and regional scales)

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• AM Committee • Levels Advisory Board • Networks • AM Pilots

How was the plan developed? Canada U.S.

Wendy Leger, Canadian Co-Chair Environment Canada

Deborah Lee, U.S. Co-Chair US Army Corps of Engineers

Jonathan Staples, Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources (tentative)

Don Zelazny, New York Dept. of Environmental Conservation

Patricia Clavet, Quebec Ministry of Sustainable Development, Environment, Wildlife and Parks

Jen Read, University of Michigan Water Center and Great Lakes Observing System

Dick Hibma, Conservation Ontario Bill Werick, Great Lakes Observing System

Canadian Secretary U.S. Secretary

Sara Eddy, Fisheries and Oceans Canada Drew Gronewold, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

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All members of the Task Team serve in their professional capacity and not as representatives of their agencies or employers.

• The Great Lakes are DYNAMIC!

• The future is uncertain

• Decision making is complex

• A collaborative, adaptive management approach is one way to address future uncertainties

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Conclusion