Changing Great Lakes Water Levels: Current Conditions and Future Projections

IntroductionHistorical levels

DriversForecasting

Changing Great Lakes Water Levels:current conditions and future projections

Andrew Gronewold, Ph.D., [email protected]

Great Lakes Environmental Research LaboratoryNational Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

andDepartment of Civil and Environmental Engineering

University of Michigan

May 2016

1 / 30


DriversForecasting

Outline

1 Introduction

2 / 30


DriversForecasting

Outline

1 Introduction

2 Historical water levels

2 / 30


DriversForecasting

Outline

1 Introduction


3 Drivers of water level change

2 / 30


DriversForecasting

Outline

1 Introduction



4 Forecasting

2 / 30


DriversForecasting

Outline

1 Introduction



4 Forecasting

3 / 30


DriversForecasting

U.S. Great Lakes Coastline Comparison

Miles of

Lake Coastline

Lake Superior 1250

Lake Michigan 1640

Lake Huron 840

Lake Erie 470

Lake Ontario 330

TOTAL 4530

Source: The Coastline of the United States. U.S. Dept.

of Commerce, NOAA, NOAA/PA 71046 (Rev. 1975).

*All numbers rounded to the nearest 10 miles.

NA

TIO

NA

L O

CE

AN

IC A

ND ATMOSPHERIC

AD

MIN

IST

RA

TIO

N

U.S

.DEP

ARTMENT OF COMM

E

RC

E Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory

GLERL

ATLANTIC = 2170

GULF OF MEXICO = 1630

PACIFIC = 1300

ALASKA/HAWAII = 6330

From: Gronewold, Fortin, Lofgren, Clites, Stow, and Quinn (2013). Climatic Change.

4 / 30


DriversForecasting

Name Country Surface area Volume(km2) (mi2) (km3) (mi3)

Michigan–Huron U.S. and Canada 117,702 45,445 8,458 2,029Superior U.S. and Canada 82,414 31,820 12,100 2,900Victoria Multiple 69,485 26,828 2,750 660Tanganyika Multiple 32,893 12,700 18,900 4,500Baikal Russia 31,500 12,200 23,600 5,700Great Bear Lake Canada 31,080 12,000 2,236 536Malawi Multiple 30,044 11,600 8,400 2,000Great Slave Lake Canada 28,930 11,170 2,090 500Erie U.S. and Canada 25,719 9,930 489 117Winnipeg Canada 23,553 9,094 283 68Ontario U.S. and Canada 19,477 7,520 1,639 393

Table: Water volume and surface area of Earth’s largest (ranked by surface area) fresh surface waters.


5 / 30


DriversForecasting

Name Country Surface area Volume(km2) (mi2) (km3) (mi3)

Michigan–Huron U.S. and Canada 117,702 45,445 8,458 2,029Superior U.S. and Canada 82,414 31,820 12,100 2,900Victoria Multiple 69,485 26,828 2,750 660Tanganyika Multiple 32,893 12,700 18,900 4,500Baikal Russia 31,500 12,200 23,600 5,700Great Bear Lake Canada 31,080 12,000 2,236 536Malawi Multiple 30,044 11,600 8,400 2,000Great Slave Lake Canada 28,930 11,170 2,090 500Erie U.S. and Canada 25,719 9,930 489 117Winnipeg Canada 23,553 9,094 283 68Ontario U.S. and Canada 19,477 7,520 1,639 393

Table: Water volume and surface area of Earth’s largest (ranked by surface area) fresh surface waters.


6 / 30


DriversForecasting

Outline

1 Introduction



4 Forecasting

7 / 30


DriversForecasting

From: NOAA National Ocean Service (CO-OPs) and NOAA-GLERL.

8 / 30


DriversForecasting

Historical water levels:

9 / 30


DriversForecasting

Historical water levels: seasonal and interannual

10 / 30

Suite of Software Analyzes Data on the Sphere

Dawn Spacecraft OrbitsDwarf Planet Ceres

The Social ContractBetween Science and Society

VOL. 96 • NO. 6 • 1 APR 2015

Earth & Space Science News

GREAT LAKESWATER LEVELS SURGE

gronewold

Text Box

See also: Gronewold et al (In Press) Water Resources Research


DriversForecasting

Outline

1 Introduction



4 Forecasting

12 / 30


DriversForecasting

Drivers of water level change:

13 / 30


DriversForecasting

Drivers of water level change: hydrologic cycle

14 / 30


DriversForecasting


1.62.0

1.4

Lake Superior

2.73.1

1.9

Lake

Michigan-Huron

0.2<0.1

<0.1

Lake St. Clair

0.7 0.7

0.8

Lake Erie

1.10.5

0.4

Lake Ontario

Runoff Overlake Precipitation Overlake Evaporation

Budgets Within Lakes

From: Hunter et al. (2015), Journal of Great Lakes Research; Satellite Imagery: NOAA CoastWatch

15 / 30


DriversForecasting


1.62.0

1.4

Lake Superior

2.73.1

1.9

Lake

Michigan-Huron

0.2<0.1

<0.1

Lake St. Clair

0.7 0.7

0.8

Lake Erie

1.10.5

0.4

Lake Ontario

St.

Lawrence

River

7.0

Niagara River (& Welland Canal)

6.3

Detroit River

5.5

St. Clair River

5.4

St. Marys River

2.2

The Ogoki and

Long Lac

diversions bring

water from the

Hudson Bay

watershed into

Lake Superior.

0.2

The Chicago

diversion sends

water from Lake

Michigan into the

Mississippi River

Basin.

0.1

A very small amount

of water is sent

through the Erie

Canal from Lake Erie

to the Hudson River.

Runoff Overlake Precipitation Overlake Evaporation Flow Between Lakes Diversions

<0.1

Flow Between Lakes and DiversionsBudgets Within Lakes

From: Hunter et al. (2015), Journal of Great Lakes Research; Satellite Imagery: NOAA CoastWatch

16 / 30


DriversForecasting

Great Lakes, December 1999

Credit: NASA

17 / 30


DriversForecasting

Outline

1 Introduction



4 Forecasting

19 / 30


DriversForecasting

Water level projections: seasonal

20 / 30


DriversForecasting

Water level projections: decadal

22 / 30


DriversForecasting

Concluding remarks

24 / 30


DriversForecasting

Concluding remarks

How do we quantify value of data?

24 / 30


DriversForecasting

Concluding remarks


Can models replace observations?

24 / 30


DriversForecasting

Concluding remarks



Uncertainty quantification: simple or complex models?

24 / 30


DriversForecasting

Concluding remarks



Uncertainty quantification: simple or complex models?

Projections and simulations: “predict” or offer insight?

24 / 30


DriversForecasting

Acknowledgements

25 / 30


DriversForecasting

Acknowledgements

Kaye LaFond, Joe Smith, Anne Clites, Tim Hunter

25 / 30


DriversForecasting

Acknowledgements

Kaye LaFond, Joe Smith, Anne Clites, Tim Hunter

NOAA, USACE, USGS, Environment Canada, and IJC

25 / 30


DriversForecasting

Changing Great Lakes Water Levels:current conditions and future projections

Andrew Gronewold, Ph.D., [email protected]

Great Lakes Environmental Research LaboratoryNational Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

andDepartment of Civil and Environmental Engineering

University of Michigan

May 2016

26 / 30


DriversForecasting

White Shoal Lighthouse: Lake MichiganPhoto courtesy Dick Moehl

(Lighthouse Keepers Association)

27 / 30


DriversForecasting

Drivers of water level change:

28 / 30


DriversForecasting

Drivers of water level change: atmospheric circulation and climate patterns

10

6

2

Wate

r te

mpera

ture

(de

g C

)

300

550

800

Overlake e

vapora

tion

(mm

)

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

-1

0

1

Wate

r le

vel

(de

pa

rtu

re f

rom

me

an

, m

)

A

B

From: Gronewold & Stow (2014), Science.

29 / 30


DriversForecasting

Glacial isostatic rebound

From: Mainville and Craymer (2005), GSA Bulletin.

30 / 30

Changing Great Lakes Water Levels: Current Conditions and Future Projections

Environment

Transcript of Changing Great Lakes Water Levels: Current Conditions and Future Projections