• Uncertainty due to subsidy cuts has significantly halted investments from private sector

• Installed capacity growth will be too slow to achieve 2020 targets.

• Public supports the move for reduced reliance on fossil fuels, and would accept rise in energy bills to facilitate action

• Progress shows great promise for the Scottish energy sector if confidence can be restored

An Analysis of the Challenges of the 2020 Scottish Renewable Energy TargetsGordon Best, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Strathclyde

2020 Renewable Energy Targets• 100% electricity demand equivalent from renewables by 2020• 11% heat demand from renewables by 2020• New target of at least 30% overall energy demand from renewables by 2020• New target of 500 MW community and locally-owned renewable energy by 2020

2020 Routemap for Renewable Energy in Scotland, 2011

Why Are Renewables Important?• Economic Benefits- Job creation, export potential, manufacturing boost • Carbon and Environmental Benefits-Reduced carbon emissions and

improved air quality• Energy Security-Reduced dependency on other countries for energy

supply• Community Benefits-Greater public engagement in the energy sector

How Can Targets Be Achieved? Will Targets Be Achieved?

Key Challenges to Achieving the 2020 Targets

• Cost of Renewables

• Planning Consents & Regulations

• Secure Grid Access

• Source Sustainable Fuel

• Skills

• Supply Chain/ Infrastructure

• Innovation/ R & D

• Public Engagement

Analysis of Survey Data

Energy Managers Public Survey

Recommendations1. Publish long term public investment plans 2. Continue to increase installed renewable capacity 3. Invest in storage and transmission network for export potential4. Evaluate planning structure 5. Boost indigenous manufacturing sector 6. Continue to encourage and invest in education to boost skillset

Conclusions

CBI SR AS SP Strathclyde CEP

Cost of Renewables

Planning Consents & Regulations ‐ ‐

Secure Grid Access  ‐ ‐

Source Sustainable Fuel  ‐

Skills  ‐ ‐

Supply Chain/ Infrastructure ‐

Innovation/ R & D  ‐ ‐

Public Engagement ‐

Overall Feasibility 

Total Pre Operational Capacity = 13, 336MW

Projected 2020 Capacity= 20,840MW

References- Renewables Routemap, Scottish Government, 2011; Energy Audit, Audit Scotland 2012; Survey Editor, Survey Monkey 2016; 2015 Renewables Report, Scottish Renewables, 2015; Supergrid, Culture Change, 2016

Energy Audit, Audit Scotland 2012 Supergrid, Culture Change, 2016

Survey Editor, Survey Monkey2016

Renewables Routemap, Scottish Government, 2011

Survey Editor, Survey Monkey2016Survey Editor, Survey Monkey2016