Gold and Silver Technial Update Report 28 Aug 2011

8/4/2019 Gold and Silver Technial Update Report 28 Aug 2011

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28 AUG 2011

GOLD AND SILVER TECHNICAL UPDATES

Last week closed on a very bullish note, weekly chart

After seeing what I saw last week -- it is very hard to not think the entire thing was a

complete bailout of the option writers ---- who were bailed out on the final day before

expiration. Any new high from this point will be a major signal that the markets are about

to move much higher.

Why don't they drop the price to 1000 on gold and hold it there ? Because they cannot

control the PHYSICAL market ----- and more and more ---- the electronic markets arediverging away from PHYSICAL. Thus they must maintain at least some semblance

otherwise the paper markets would become obsolete. ANY WAY YOU LOOK AT THIS ---

- it is hard to believe it was not some criminal event. There are reports that there was

major physical buying of the metals and that the supply is now becoming exhausted on

many fronts.


2/5

The weekly chart posted a Bullish Red Hammer candle for last week. To maintain the

bullishness of this candle, this week's close must remain above 1702.48. Also, if last week

had closed below the previous week's low of 1732.80 it would have posted a bearish Outside

Key Reversal (OKR) on the weekly, that would have been very bearish. However, with the

Red hammer instead that potential has disappeared.

The daily chart shows even more bullish behavior

As you can see, the 20DMA has given support over the last 3 days, 2 intra-day bounces and

a daily close above to produce a bullish hammer candle. The 3/10/20 had moved into a

neutral alignment for a day, but Friday's action returned the ribbon to a bullish alignment

which can be maintained with continued daily closes above the 10EMA (currently 1797).


3/5

The Elliot wave picture is at an important cross roads

Friday's close ended just below the 61.8% fibo retrace and the Blue base channel. The Base

channel often defines an ABC corrective move (orange :(a),:(b):(c) count) or helps confirm

a 3rd wave break-out (green (i), (ii), (iii), (iv), (v) count).

Red Projection - If PoG continues the buying spree and moves above the base channel early

next week, staying above 1795, then an impulsive 5 wave structure will be built which could

lock-in the wave 2 black low at 1702.

Blue Projection - an early sell-off next week rejecting the 61.8% fibo and upper base

channel line, impulsively moving down below 1763 would suggest a retest of the previous

low is possible.


4/5

Zooming out we can see how these moves would play in the larger MT picture

A third leg down of an ABC zig-zag would be possible with the conditions of the Blue

projection. An obvious target is the daily gap up (1662 to 1682) and the 61.8% fibo at 1643.

These are obvious targets, however a very bullish market may not be generous enough to

fall to those levels. Again if the blue base channel is breached the low at 1702 could be as

good as it gets and wave 3 black higher may be underway. Keep in mind that the 1643 levelguards the MT trend higher, falling below that level puts the MT count in jeopardy, not

dead, but in trouble. Death would come with any move below 1478.

Wave 1 black moved higher (complete at 1912) than earlier anticipated. This suggests that

the next wave up, 3 black, has a new minimum target of 2136 and possible extended target

of 2614. Afterward a wave 4 black pull-back (likely irregular,flat) and then a final 5th

which could move 'crazy high' then have an even crazier crash.

As I said before the original Primary count up from the 1999 low is technically complete

for a major multi-year top. Moving below 1478 impulsively would confirm that view. This

is not my favored view at this time, I still think PoG has only finished the first stage of this

mania blow-off top as the 5th wave continues to extend higher ala 1980.


5/5

SILVER

The upper momentum line and the 44 dollar area did indeed provide resistance for the

silver markets last week as a 10 percent move lower developed just in time for optionsexpiration. Price pulled all the way back to 38.50 but reversed higher on Thursday and

Friday and moved back to the 41 dollar area. The initial data was suggestive that there was

a lot of shorts put on --- but not a lot of long liquidation Keep you long postion with stop

loss $38.85

Good Hunting

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Gold and Silver Technial Update Report 28 Aug 2011

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