GOES-R: Bringing Critical New Capability to Automated Aviation Weather Products Paul H. Herzegh
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GOES-R: Bringing Critical New Capability to Automated Aviation Weather Products Paul H. Herzegh National Center for Atmospheric Research With acknowledgements to Timothy Schmit (CIMSS) Gary Ellrod (NESDIS) Anthony Schreiner (CIMSS) May 12, 2004
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GOES-R: Bringing Critical New Capability to Automated Aviation Weather Products Paul H. Herzegh National Center for Atmospheric Research With acknowledgements to Timothy Schmit (CIMSS) Gary Ellrod (NESDIS) Anthony Schreiner (CIMSS) May 12, 2004. FAA AWRP NCAR, MIT, FSL, - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Transcript of GOES-R: Bringing Critical New Capability to Automated Aviation Weather Products Paul H. Herzegh
GOES-R: Bringing Critical New Capability
to Automated Aviation Weather Products
Paul H. HerzeghNational Center for Atmospheric Research
With acknowledgements to Timothy Schmit (CIMSS)Gary Ellrod (NESDIS)
Anthony Schreiner (CIMSS)
May 12, 2004
Aviation Weather Product Delivery/Flow
Automated Aviation Wx Products/Guidance• Volcanic Ash• Turbulence (clear air, convectively-induced, terrain-i)• Icing• Ceiling and Visibility• Winds (flight level and below)• Convection (initiation, diagnosis, nowcast, forecast)• Space Weather (health/comm hazards)
FAA AWRPNCAR, MIT, FSL,
NRL, others.
NASAAvSP, ASAP,
CIMSS.
NOAANESDIS, NCEP,
AWC, others.
Funding, Personnel, Data,Techniques, R&D.
AWRP Aviation Wx Products• Volcanic Ash• Turbulence (CAT, CIT)• Icing• Ceiling and Visibility• Convection• Winds (flight level and below)• Space Weather (health/comm)
Test Products
NCAR, MIT websites for structured user trials.
OperationalProducts
NOAA AWCOperational
home & distribution
point.
Operational Users• FAA Flight Service Stations• Airline met/dispatch depts.• Airport operators• Air traffic met support (CWSU)• Pilot / cockpit• Commercial Av. Wx. services• Volcanic ash centers (VAAC’s)
Aviation Weather Product Delivery/Flow
AWRP Aviation Wx Products• Volcanic Ash• Turbulence (CAT, CIT)• Icing• Ceiling and Visibility• Convection• Winds• Space Weather (health/comm)
Aviation Weather Product Overview
Current: VA SIGMET display
Future: VA analysis & fcst .
Current: CAT fcst product.
Current: Icing fcst product.
AWRP Aviation Wx Products• Volcanic Ash• Turbulence (CAT, CIT)• Icing• Ceiling and Visibility• Convection• Winds• Space Weather (health/comm)
Aviation Weather Product Overview
Current: C&V test product.
Current: Convective nowcast.
Future: Improved 3-D winds.
Possible Future: Polar route space wx.
EXPERT SYSTEM-BASED FORECAST BLENDING PROCESS(Weighted Simple Additive Model)
Display: Website, ADDS,Cockpit, Other.
Analysis and/or Forecast Product
PIREPS PIREPS & &
AIREPSAIREPS
Climat-Climat-ologyology
Other Other ForecastsNowcasts,
or methods.
Future Future methods methods
& & sources.sources.
NWP INPUT
- RUC- Eta- GFS- Other
Relevant Relevant ObsObs
-- METARS- RAOBS- Radar- Others
GOES & GOES & GOES GOES
ProductsProducts
POES & POES & POES POES
ProductsProducts
DATABASE
FORECAST COMPONENT
PERFORMANCE.
FORECAST INTEGRATION
WEIGHTS
Based on recent forecast
performance.
Feedback Loop
Generalized AWRP Product Synthesis
GOES-R Enabling Capability Impact on Av. Products
- Turbulence Likelihood field. - Convective initiation, nowcast, forecast.
Resolution: mountain waves
GOES-8 Simulated GOES-ROzone Detection (Schmidt & Li)- New 9.6 μm ABI channel for obs at high temporal/spatial resolution. - HES ozone accuracy.- Synergistic ABI/HES use.
Turbulence Likelihood field via tropopause folding.
Water Vapor Tracer (Wimmers)- Synergistic ABI/HES use.
HES/ABI Sounding Improvement- 4-D improvement in stability, winds, moisture.
- Turbulence Likelihood field.
GOES-R Enabling Capability Impact on Av. Products
Cloud Properties- Cloud masking- Cloud top height/temperature- Cloud top phase (ice/water) Critical Improvement to:
- Ceiling and visibility products- In-flight icing products
Critical Improvement to:- Convective Nowcasting- Diagnosis of severe oceanic Conv.- Convective storm evolution.- Improved NWP initialization.- Early volc eruption alert? (Electrified eruption cloud)
Geo Lightning Mapper
Fog & Low Cloud Detection
GOES-10 Simulated GOES-R
Critical to:- Airport ops- Overnight flts- AM ops
A Focus on GOES-R Impacts – Volcanic Ash
GOES-R Enabling Capabilities
• ABI - All spectral channels for ash (8)
• Key IR upper-level SO2 (7.3, 8.5 μm)
• Spatial & temporal resolution (5-15 min;
0.5-2 km)
- Continuity for plume tracking
- Resolution for hot spot analysis
• HES/ABI Satwinds for plume tracking.
• Temp/wind profiles for plume heights.
• CO2 slicing for plume heights.
• Others..
Intermediate GOES-R Products
Enabling Intermediate GOES-R Products for VA
Ellrod RGB-rendered ash analysis adjusted for day
and night.
Upper-level SO2 with ABI 15 min frequency.
Thermal hot-spot monitoring for eruption
alert.
AWRP Product Value Added:- Fusion- Automation, animation- User interface- Edit/display tools- History database- etc.
Automated guidance/support to AWC,
VAAC’s, others.
.. and many more impacts and opportunities to improve aviation safety and efficiency.
