GLOBAL WARMINGI N A N U N E Q U A L W O R L D

a case of environmental colonialism

A N I L A G A R W A L

S U N I T A N A R A I N

CENTRE FOR SCIENCE AND ENVIRONMENT

NEW DELHI

We are also very grateful to all chose who spent time giving us comments,particularly Dr S K Sinha of the Indian Agricultural Research Institute, Dr V Asthana of the Tata Energy Research Institute. Several people in thegovernment who helped us cannot be named for obvious reasons.

Cartoons: Rustam VaniaCover: Rustam Vania

1991 Centre for Science and EnvironmentFirst Reprint: February, 1996Second reprint: October, 2003

Published by Centre for Science and Environment,41, Institutional Area, Tughlakabad, New Delhi - 110062Tel: 91-11- 2995 5124, 2995 6110, 2995 6394, 2995 6399Fax: 91-11- 2995 5879E mail: cse@cseindia.org Website: www.cseindia.org

p-ii Global Warming Book

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The idea that developing countries like India andChina must share the blame for heating up theearth and destabilising its climate, as espousedin a recent study published in the United Statesby the World Resources Institute in collabora-tion with the United Nations, is an excellentexample of enviromental colonialism.

The report of the World Resources Institute(WRI), a Washington- based private researchgroup, is based less on science and more on politically motivated and mathematical jugglery (1). Its main intention seems to be toblame developing countries for global warmingand perpetuate the current global inequality in the use of the earths environment and itsresources.

A detailed look at the data presented by WRIitself leads to the conclusion that India and Chinacannot be held responsible even for a single kg ofcarbondioxide or methane that is accumulating inthe earths atmosphere. Carbondioxide andmethane are two of the most important gases con-tributing to global warming. The accumulation inthe earths atmosphere of these gases is mainly theresult of the gargantuan consumption of the devel-oped countries, particularly the United States.

The WRI report is entirely designed to blamedeveloping countries for sharing the responsibil-ity for global warming. Global warming is a phenomenon that could lead to major climaticdisturbances, drying up of rain over large areas,and melting of the ice caps leading to countrieslike Maldives disappearing completely and India and Bangladesh losing a large part of theircoastline.

The WRI report is already being quoted wide-ly and its figures will definitely be used to influ-ence the deliberations on the proposed, legally-binding, global climate convention. This kind ofdata will be used by the US government tostrengthen its position, which it took during theozone negotiations, that it will not pay for eco-logical reparations. The US government agreedto the paltry amounts negotiated at the London1990 meeting for a global ozone fund only afterconsiderable pressure from European countries,particularly the Scandinavian countries.

Many developing countries fear that the pro-posed climate convention will put serious brakeson their development by limiting their ability toproduce energy, particularly from coal (which isresponsible for producing carbondioxide), and

undertake rice agriculture and animal care pro-grammes (activities which produce methane).

Behind the global rules and the global disci-pline that is being thrust upon the hapless ThirdWorld, there is precious little global sharing oreven an effort by the West to understand the per-spectives of the other two-thirds. How can wevisualise any kind of global management, in aworld so highly divided between the rich and thepoor, the powerful and the powerless, whichdoes not have a basic element of economic jus-tice and equity. One American is equal to, godknows, how many Indians or Africans in terms ofglobal resource consumption.

The entire debate on the prospects ofimpending doom is in many ways an excellentopportunity for the world to truly realise theconcept of one world. A world which is interde-pendent and which cannot withstand the cur-rent levels of consumption and exploitation,especially the levels now prevalent in the West.We had hoped that Western environmentalistswould seize this opportunity to force their coun-tries to `dedevelop as they have used up theworlds ecological capital and continue tooveruse it even today. Sadly, instead, the focustoday is on poor developing countries and theirminiscule resource use is frowned upon as hys-teria is built up about their potential increase inconsumption. For instance, in the negotiations toreduce ozone destructive gases, the commonrefrain has been that the future potential of CFCproduction in India and China which togetherproduce only two per cent of the responsiblechemicals today constitutes a threat to globalsurvival. As their consumption is bound toincrease, the dream of every Chinese to own arefrigerator, is being described as a global curse.

The Washington-based Worldwatch Institutepoints out in a recent paper : .... there remainsthe extraordinarily difficult question of whethercarbon emissions should be limited in develop-ing countries, and if so at what level. It is a simplefact of atmospheric science that the planet willnever be able to support a population of 10 bil-lion people emitting carbon at, say, the rate ofWestern Europe today. This would imply carbonemissions of four times the current level, or ashigh as 23 billion tonnes per year2.

Gus Speth, WRIs president in an article inEnvironment magazine puts it more bluntlyDeforestation and other land use changes now

GLOBAL WARMINGI N A N U N E Q U A L W O R L D

account for about one-third of the carbondioxideproduced by human activity and some of themethane. If just China and India were to increasetheir greenhouse gas emissions to the globalaverage per capita rate, todays global totalwould rise 28 per cent; if these two countriesmatched Frances per capita rate, the total wouldbe 68 per cent higher. Speth, therefore, con-cludes: As a practical matter, developing coun-tries expect industrial countries to take the firstand strongest actions on global warming. Thesedeveloping nations want to see the seriousnessof the threat validated, and they conclude cor-rectly that industrial nations are largely respon-sible for the problem and have the mostresources to do something about it. But carryingthis argument too far could lead to a tragic stale-mate.3

It is constantly mentioned that the efforts ofthe West to check pollution and global warmingcould be torpedoed by a rise in coal burning inthe developing world. Why should we do any-thing if you are also going to want cars, electrici-ty or refrigerators is the underlining statement.Recently, the head of the environmental group ofthe International Energy Agency based inBrussels an agency which looks after the ener-gy interests of rich countries told the pressthat the coal use in developing countries couldhave very dramatic environmental implications.The levels of coal use predicted for India andChina could have a very dramatic environmentalimpact indeed. If developing countries keep tothe sort of forecasts of coal consumption nowbeing bandied about, they would negate anyeffort by Western countries to control emissionsof greenhouse gases, the IEA official recentlytold Reuters.4

We consider such statements, now common-place in the West, both irresponsible and highlypartisan. They constitute the worst form of preach-ing the world has ever seen literally amountingto blaming the victim. If anything, the available fig-ures show that the West must immediately put itsown house in order.

And this is when Western nations themselvesare talking, at most, about stabilising their cur-rent consumption of energy use or reducing themmarginally. The US has in fact rejected even dis-cussions about stabilising its consumption as USPresident George Bush now considers the globalwarming debate a mere myth. But even stabilis-ing energy consumption means maintaining themanifold inequity in resource consumptionbetween the developed and developing worlds.Does this mean that developing countries will beallowed to reach these levels or is our quota ofthe global atmosphere finished ?

India and China today account for more thanone third of the worlds population. The questionto be asked is whether we are consuming one-thirdof the worlds resources or contributing one-third of

the muck and dirt in the atmosphere or the oceans.If not then surely these countries should be laudedfor keeping the world in balance because of theirparsimonious consumption despite the Westernrape and pillage of the worlds resources.

The California based International Project forSustainable Energy Paths (IPSEP) in its report onEnergy Policy in the Greenhouse has warnedagainst any trend towards environmental colo-nialism in which the climate issues is inadver-tently or deliberately used to reinforce tradition-al agendas that are in conflict with the North-South combine.5 The report, which theBritish newsmagazine, New Scientist, called thefirst detailed formula for reducing releases ofcarbondioxide by the year 2005, has argued forsubstantial and urgent reductions of emissionsof industrialised countries, who depending onthe mathematical calculations, have alreadyeither used up their entire quota of emissions tothe atmosphere until 2100 or will be doing so by1997.6

The manner in which the global warmingdebate is being carried out is only sharpeningand deepening the North-south divide. Giventhis new found interest in the so-called OurCommon Future and future generations, it is timefor the Third World to ask the West, whosefuture generations are we seeking to protect, theWestern Worlds or the Third Worlds ?

WRI report reinforces this divide. By shifting the onus onto the developing world, itwhitewashes the role and the responsibility of the West in destroying our common future.James Gus Speth, WRIs president says diplo-matically about his report, the new informationmeans that industrial and developing countriesmust work together to begin reducing emissions ofgreenhouse gases and we need a new era of environmental cooperation. Third World environ-mentalists must not get taken for a ride by thishighly partisan `one worldism.

WRIs calculations: faulty and prejudicedThe figures used by WRI to calculate the quanti-ty of carbondioxide and methane produced byeach country are extremely questionable. Heavyemphasis has been placed on carbondioxide pro-duction due to deforestation and methane produc-tion from rice fields and livestock as compared tocarbondioxide production from the use of fossilfuels like oil and coal. Since developing countriesare more responsible for the former, the heavyemphasis on deforestation and methane genera-tion tends to overplay their contribution whileunderplaying that of the developed countries.

Brazil, for instance, is a clear case wheredeforestation estimates have been overstated(see box). Even though Brazils deforestation didpeak in 1987, several Brazilian sources point outthat they have reduced substantially since then.Its carbondioxide emissions since 1987, and on

2

The manner in which

the global warming

debate is being

carried out is only

sharpening and

deepening the

North-south divide.

Given this new found

interest in the

so-called Our

Common Future and

future generations, it

is time for the Third

World to ask the

West, whose future

generations are we

seeking to protect, the

Western Worlds or

the Third Worlds ?

3

average during the 1980s, are much lower thanthose taken by WRI to calculate carbondioxideemissions. Similarly, in India, deforestation ratesdo not seem to be the same as that of the 1970s,that is, 1.5 million hectares a year the figuretaken as the yearly average by WRI for the 1980s.

According to the Forest Survey of India,deforestation rates have gone down in the 1980s.The latest assessment based on satellite imageryover a four period year between 1981-83 and1985-87 shows that the rate of forest loss hasgone down to 47,500 ha each year a mere 3 percent of the earlier estimate.7 These figures maywell be an understatement as most Indian envi-ronmentalists would allege. But even if it is one-tenth of the true figure, it will be nowhere nearthe figures used by WRI. Increased public aware-ness, relatively stricter implementation of for-est legislation and other measures have definite-ly driven down the rate of deforestation in thecountry compared to the 1970s. And eventhough there is a lot still to be done in this area,it is unlikely that India has the dubious distinc-tion of destroying 1.5 mha of forests each yeareven in the 80s.

For other developing countries also, theaccuracy of the forest loss estimates used byWRI to calculate carbondioxide levels are veryshaky. For instance, estimates for Myanmar(erstwhile Burma) are based on one paper esti-mating forest loss over 1975-81 presented in aworkshop in Finland. The estimate is 5.45 timesmore than the FAO assessment of 1980 forMyanmar. In the case of Indonesia, a World Bankreview paper on Indonesias forest, land andwater issues has been used to estimate the rateof deforestation which is 50 times more than theFAO estimate.

Interestingly, the US deforestation rate,which is zero according to WRI, is based on per-

sonal communications between WRI and the USdepartment of agriculture. Similarly, there are,according to WRI, absolutely no landuse changesleading to deforestation in any of the industri-alised countries like USSR and and Australia. Theeffects of acid rain, which has destroyed vasttracts of European and North American forests,remains unaccounted. And this is when WRIsown past reports have estimated extensive dam-age to these forests.8 According to one estimate,more than a fifth of the forested area in Europehad been damaged by acid rain by 1986. This,together with North America, equalled to rough-ly 10 per cent of all the non-tropical forest area.Obviously, this would have an impact on climatechange as some Western scientists have calcu-lated. One estimate is that 10 per cent of temper-ate forests, damaged by acid rain, would togeth-er release as much as 35 billion tonnes of carbonequivalent into the atmosphere equal to theeffect of using fossil fuels for seven years at cur-rent rates.6 The fact remains that forest loss datain the world is still extremely poor and it is diffi-cult to use it for any set of calculations of carbonemissions to the same level of precision as fossilfuel use data.

The methane issue raises further questions ofjustice and morality. Can we really equate the car-bondioxide contributions of gas guzzling automo-biles in Europe and North America or, for that mat-ter, anywhere in the Third World with the methaneemissions of draught cattle and rice fields of sub-sistence farmers in West Bengal or Thailand ? Do these people not have a right to live ? But noeffort has been made in WRIs report to separateout the `survival emissions of the poor, from the`luxury emissions of the rich. Just what kind ofpolitics or morality is this which masquerades inthe name of `one worldism and `high mindedinternationalism?

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The World Resources Institute (WRI)contends that developing countriescontribute almost half the greenhousegas emissions leading to global warm-ing. Almost half the share of the developing world comes, according toWRI, from one country, Brazil, alleged-ly because of the extensive deforesta-tion of the Amazon forest over the past one decade. Brazils totalcontribution ranks third next to onlyUSA and USSR, contributing as muchas 15 per cent of the net carbondioxide

emissions of the world. Brazilians, on the other hand, have stronglyobjected to this unfair emphasis ondeforestation as a cause of climatechange, particularly as the databaseon deforestation rates, unlike the ratesof fossil fuel use, is very poor. And it isalso possible to calculate more accu-rately carbondioxide emissions fromfossil fuel consumption than fromdeforestation. Leaving aside the lack of good dataabout deforestation and its impact on

climate change, a detailed look at thefigures presented by WRI shows clear-ly that assessments of Brazils defor-estation vary enormously and may notbe as high as claimed or highlighted byit. The total area of the Amazon legallyunder Brazil is roughly 340 millionhectare (mha) out of a totalAmazonian area of 500 mha, which itshares with its neighbouring coun-tries. There are different assessmentsfor the rate of forest loss in this area.

Various Estimates for Forest Loss in Brazils Amazon (as found in the WRI Report)

Year Sources Estimated Percentage of total Estimated Extent of % of legalextent of Amazonian Forest Area deforested AmazonAnnual in Brazil lost in last decade deforested

Deforestation each year in last decade (mha) (%) (mha) (%)

1981-1985 FAO 1.4 0.4 14 4

1987 Alberto Setzer, National 8.0 2.4 80 24 Space Research Institute (INPE),Brazil (using remote sensing)

1988 Alberto Setzer, INPE, Brazil 4.8 1.4 48 14 (using remote sensing)

1989 Alberto Setzer, INPE, Brazil 2-2.4 0.6-0.7 22 7(using remote sensing)

1988 Philip Fearnside, INPE 3.5 1.0 35 10 (Brazil) (Linear projectionbased on 1978 survey)

1988 Robert Pereira da Cunha, INPE, 1.7 0.5 17 5Brazil (survey in 1988 based on 10 years data using LandsatThematic Mapper)

1988 Recalculation using INPE data, 2.3 0.6 23.45 7personal communication withProf. Jose Goldemberg,President, University of Sao, Paulo

CSEs calculationsCSEs analysis presented in this report does notquestion the data that WRI has used to calculateeach countrys production of carbondioxide andmethane, even though as argued above they def-initely can be questioned. Yet CSEs analysisshows India and China cannot be blamed for anyof the methane or carbondioxide that is appear-ing in the atmosphere.

As a senior UNEP official has put it, natureserves two major economic functions one, asa source of raw materials and, two, as a sink forabsorbing wastes.9

Ideally, the approach should have been toprepare each nations budget of greenhouse gas

emissions by taking into account each nationsources of emissions and its terrestrial sinks,that is, its forests, other vegetation and soils,This exercise would have given an idea of thetrue emissions of each nation. These emissionswould have to be further matched with eachnations just and fair share of the oceanic andtropospheric sinks a common heritage ofhumankind. Only then the net emissions of anation that are accumulating in the atmospherecould be calculated. But nothing of this sort hasbeen attempted by WRI.

The earths environment has a considerableability to absorb wastes. The ocean is an impor-tant sink for absorbing carbondioxide producedthrough human activity. According to the esti-

BRAZILS DEFORESTATION : WHAT IS THE TRUTH ?

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mates of the Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange, the ocean absorbed, during the 1980s,carbondioxide to the tune of 1200 to 2800 milliontonnes of carbon equivalent every year. Therecould also be terrestrial sinks for carbondioxidebut scientific knowledge about them is stilluncertain. The various model prepared would-wide for estimating the accumulation of carbon-dioxide in the atmosphere reveal a substantialmissing sink which scientists now believe couldbe a terrestrial sink. The predicted amount ofcarbondioxide increase in the atmosphereshould be ideally equal to the amount of carbon-dioxide emitted by human made sources less theamount absorbed by the oceanic sinks. But mod-els find that instead the predicted amount is

more than what is actually accumulatin in theatmosphere, indicating the presence of yetanother cleansing mechanism in the world.There is a growing belief that variousland processes like vegetation and soilcould possible account for this surplus.Some preliminary models even suggestthat these terrestrial sinks could be pos-sibly even larger than the oceanic sinks.But much of this is still unknown.

Sinks for methane is primarilyremoved by a reaction with hydroxylradicals (OH) in the troposphere. Thisreaction represents a sink of about 400to 600 million tonnes per year. Soilsmay also be contributing in removing

Most have been done by the govern-ment-owned National Space ResearchInstitute of Brazil which has used satel-lite imagery to estimate deforestationin different years (see table). The esti-mates vary from 1.4 mha to 8 mha offorest loss in a single year. This range isvery large and this has been explainedin WRIs own review. According to asatellite based survey by Alberto Setzerof the National Space Research Agency,deforestation in 1987 was around 8mha. The very next year, however,when he resurveyed the area he foundthat deforestation had reduced drasti-cally - by more than half. And, in 1989,the following year it had come downeven further. Thus, 1987 was clearly anaberration and in no way the average. WRI itself writes, 1987 may have beenan anomalously high year for defor-estation in the Brazilian Amazon. Thereasons being that it was the last yearthat tax credits were available to landholders for clearance of the Amazon.This, obviously, lead to extensive clear-ance of the forests as people rushed totake advantage of this and other leg-islative proposals which encouragedclearance and extension of cultivation.In 1988 and 1989, tax credits were,however, suspended and later can-celled. And pushed on by internationalpressure, the Brazilian governmentstarted a campaign to slow down theburning. Wetter conditions over thisperiod also helped to dampen fires andencourage regeneration. Yet with amazing audacity, WRI takesthe 1987 estimate not for one singleyear but as an average for the entiredecade. For instance, its table titledForest Resources 1980s takes 8 mha asthe average annual deforestation inBrazil. This table and its assessments

are later used to calculate carbondiox-ide emissions. Only footnotes in minis-cule type admit that this rate of defor-estation is only for one year. If Brazil had indeed lost 8 mha eachyear, a staggering 80 mha, or aboutone fourth of countrys total Amazonforests, would have disappeared dur-ing the 1980s. A ten year assessmentby Robert da Cunha of the NationalSpace Research Agency found that theannual rate of loss was 1.7 mhatotalling to roughly 17 mha over thepast 10 years or about 5.12 per cent ofBrazils Amazonian forests. Even if, as stated by WRI, this estimate is onthe low side, clearly it cannot be off the mark by as much 60 mha almost the size of Indias total forestland. WRI has itself revised this figureafter consultations with Prof JoseGoldemberg, president of theUniversity of Sao Paulo and put theannual rate of deforestation duringthe 1980s at about 2.3 mha. Then whythis hoax while calculating carbondiox-ide emissions ? All this may be pardonable if it wasmerely an exercise in book of the enve-lope calculations to provoke govern-ments into action. But when it getsused to abrogate responsibility forglobal warming and push for legallybinding conventions, it is no longer ajoke. WRI can possibly justify its actionby saying that it used the assessmentof forest loss for 1987 to calculate thegreenhouse index for 1987. But then,this does not explain how it has usedhigh average rates of deforestation inthe case of other countries like India.Moreover, why doesnt every pressstatement and every contention,underline by this fact? Taking the esti-mate of Alberto Setzer for 1988,

Brazils contribution to the carbondiox-ide emissions will go down from 1,200million tonnes of carbon equivalent to800 million tonnes. As a result Brazilscontribution to the net emissions ofcarbondioxide to the atmosphere willgo down from nearly 15 per cent to10.5 per cent. Taking the average annual estimatefor forest loss in Amazon over thedecade 1978 to 1988, the figure of car-bondioxide emissions is furtherreduced to 380 million tonnes of car-bon equivalent. The net emissions ofcarbondioxide from Brazil will then godown to only 5.6 per cent of theworlds total carbondioxide emissions.The share of developing countries ofcarbondioxide and all greenhouse gasemissions will also go down dramati-cally. The accuracy of deforestation esti-mates for other developing countries isalso very uncertain. In many cases it isbased on an independent estimateoften originating from a paper pre-sented at a conference or a lone sur-vey. And while there is a tendency tooverstate deforestation rates in devel-oping countries there is also a clearcase of understatement when it comesto the developed countries. There was,thus, no forest destruction or damagein any developed countries like USSR,USA or Australia. Surely this, if nothing else, makes a mockery of WRIs claim that globalwarming is a truly global phenomenonin both cause and potential effect. It is indeed a global phenomenon ineffect all of us will suffer butcaused by the wilful overconsumptionof a few, particularly the society thatWRI comes from.

methance to the tune of 15 to 54 million tonneseach year.

WRIs legerdemain actually lies in the mannerthat the earths ability to clean up the two green-house gases of carbondioxide and methane aglobal common of extreme importance hasbeen unfairly allocated to different countries.According to WRI figures, the world producesevery year 31,100 million tonnes of carbondiox-ide and 255 million tonnes of methane. But inreality, the increase in the atmosphere everyyear is only 13,600 million tonnes of carbondiox-ide and 43 million tonnes of methane. In otherwords, the earths ecological systems its veg-etation and its oceans absorbed 17,500 milliontonnes of carbondioxide and 212 million tonnesof methane every year. Global warming is caused

by overexceeding this cleansing capacity of theearths ecological systems.The WRI reportmakes no distinction between those countrieswhich have eaten up this ecological capital byexceeding the worlds absorptive capacity andthose countries which have emitted gases wellwithin the worlds cleansing capacity. India, forinstance, has been ranked as the fifth largestcontributor of greenhouse gases in the world.But compared to its population 16.2 per centof the worlds in 1990 Indias total productionof carbondioxide and methane amounted to onlysix per cent and 14.4 per cent, respectively, ofthe amount that is absorbed by the earths eco-logical systems. How can, therefore, India andother such countries be blamed even for singlekg of the filth that is accumulating in the atmos-

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Methane is released to the atmospherethrough a variety of human activities.According to the estimates in theWorld Resources Institute (WRI) report,almost 40 per cent is estimated tocome from leakages during hard coalmining and natural gas explorationand transportation as well as fromurban landfills and sewage plants. Therest comes from anaerobic fermenta-tion in irrigated rice fields and from theenteric fermentation, or stomach gas,of livestock. How reliable are the estimates ofmethane emissions from livestock orpaddy fields unlike the leakages fromnatural gas pipelines? Animal methaneproduction is dependent on both thetype of animal and the quality andquantity of feed fed to it. Most devel-oping country governments do notknow how much and what their ani-mals eat. In India, for instance, theavailable figures are at best a guessti-mate, based on a few random studiesof how underfed cattle forage for theirsurvival. Then how do we find out howmuch the cattle, goats, and sheep ofthe Third World emit in terms of gasesthat can affect climate change ? The WRI and the International Projectfor Sustainable Energy Paths (IPSEP)reports depend on a single a paper byP J Crutzen and others published in ajournal called Tellus for their methanecalculations. WRI has used preciselythis one source to prepare global esti-mates of animal methane productionbased, of course, on the specifics ofeach countrys animal husbandry prac-tices and the nature and quality offeed available. No details have been

given as to what these specifics are. According to the details of Crutzensstudy published by IPSEP, cattle are byfar the most important source for ani-mal methane. Almost 75 per cent of allanimal related methane comes fromthe worlds 1,300 million heads of cat-tle. Cattle dominate in methane pro-duction not only because they eatmore, but also because their digestivesystem is such that a larger fraction oftheir feed and fodder is converted tomethane than other animals.According to Crutzen, each head of cat-tle in the world emits 45 kg ofmethane, on an average, every year.But the yield depends also on the qual-ity and amount of feed each animaleats. The biggest eaters are dairy cowswhich receive three times their mainte-nance level feed. Consequently,Crutzen estimates that the averagemethane production in the cattle ofindustrialised countries is higher about 55 kg per animal per year ascompared to the developing countrycattle, which is about 35 kg per cattlehead per year. This is partly because alarge portion of Third World cattle arekept for draught purposes rather thanmeat or milk, and are not fattened likedairy cows. But it is not clear howCrutzen has estimated this average. On this basis, Crutzen calculates thattotal animal methane production isabout equally large from developedand developing countries. On the con-trary, WRI calculations show that live-stock of developing countries accountfor roughly 60 per cent of the total ani-mal methane generated in the world.This discrepancy in the two figures

originating from the same basic sourceis hard to explain. The discrepancy may be the result ofthe cattle population estimated byCrutzen as against that taken by WRIwhich is from FAO. FAO puts the totalcattle population in 1988 at 1,300 mil-lion but the percentage of industri-alised country cattle is roughly halfthat of developing country cattle,which Crutzen takes as almost equal.According to FAO, industrialised coun-try cattle numbered 404 million whiledeveloping country cattle were 860million. In 1988, developing countriessupported a total of 2,700 millionheads of livestock while industrialisedcountries had 1,400 million. But theratio of total cattle to livestock cattlewas the same 30 per cent in bothcases. So, according to WRI, withroughly 67 per cent of the worlds live-stock and 68 per cent the worlds cat-tle, developing countries generated 60per cent of the worlds annual produc-tion of animal methane. Given the lowmethane yields of most livestock likegoats and sheep and the lower aver-age yields of developing country cat-tle, this does not seem right. But it isdifficult to say anything concretelyunless details of WRIs calculations areavailable.

BEEF CONSUMPTIONOnce it is accepted that animalmethane does contribute to globalwarming, the obvious question lies inwhat ought to be done about it? Doesaction lie in reducing livestock herds? Ifso, then on what basis? According toIPSEP, one way to mitigate these emis-

METHANE : PROBLEMS IN ESTIMATING A LOT OF HOT AIR

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sions is indeed to reduce cattle herdsand beef consumption.But, it adds, theaction lies more in the industrialisedcountries and not so much in develop-ing countries. Per capita meat con-sumption is currently six times higherin the former (78 kg/year) as comparedto the latters (14 kg/year). Moreover,while per capita consumption in thedeveloped countries has risen by 20per cent in the last 15 years, it has stagnated in the Third World. The ideaof beef reduction in the industrialised world, according to IPSEP is alsorealistic as people in these countriesconsume several times more meat than the minimum of about 30 gm perday recommended for a balanced non-vegetarian diet. A 50 per cent decreasein the per capita consumption of beefwould still allow ample supplies ofdairy products while reducing the total animal methane production by 40 per cent. Moreover, reduction inbeef consumption would not reduceoverall meat consumption very sub-stantially. In West Germany, forinstance, people consumed about 90kg of meat per person in 1984 on aver-age. Only 25 per cent of this meat camefrom cattle. But the same cattle con-sumed 75 per cent of the total feed andfodder and emitted 75 per cent of theanimal methane. The IPSEP report also estimates that ifbeef consumption was replaced bypork then methane emissions woulddrop dramatically as pigs produce verylittle methane. In that case, meat consumption would not be affected at all. Eating less beef by the rich can, thus,

lead to better health and a betteratmosphere. It would also lead to bet-ter land management because beefproduction is particularly land inten-sive. As land is short in several devel-oped countries, a great deal of thefeed consumed in these countries, par-ticularly in Europe, is purchased fromdeveloping countries where globalmarket pressures are forcing landaway from subsistence farming andinto cash cropping a process atten-dant with enormous social and ecolog-ical costs. For instance, Western Europeimports more than 40 per cent (21 mil-lion tonnes) of its feed grains from theThird World. In addition, almost twothirds of the total domestic grain pro-duction of this region goes to feedthese methane emitting animals. InCentral America, beef production forexport to the hamburger shops of theUS has lead to extensive destruction oftropical forests, leading, in turn, to car-bondioxide emissions from these coun-tries. Keeping all these factors in mind,IPSEP has, in fact, suggested that a cli-mate tax be imposed on beef con-sumption in the rich countries. Developing countries, on the otherhand, cannot afford to reduce theircattle populations as in these countriescattle play a much broader set of func-tions than just giving meat or milk.Cattle dung fertilizes the fields andprovides energy to cook food. Cattle,in fact, play a vital role in maintainingsoil fertility in many developing coun-tries. The draught power provides the

farmer with a basic input for agricul-ture, thus, replacing the tractor. InIndia, for instance, the installed capaci-ty of the animal labour force equalledthe total installed capacity for electricpower generation in the country in theearly 1980s. In addition, the cattle pro-vide milk, hides and meat.

PADDY METHANEEstimating methane production fromirrigated rice fields is equally tricky.Estimates of methane from rice fieldsin the world are based on some two orthree studies, and all done in thedeveloped countries. IPSEP, forinstance, depends on research done in1984 by W Seiler and others in Spain.WRI depends on another paper coau-thored by W Seiler in 1986 which esti-mates methane emissions from anItalian rice paddy. These figures havethen been extrapolated by WRI fordeveloping countries. But how exact can such an estimationbe ? One, as yet unpublished studydone in India shows that these figurescould be well off the mark as there arevarious factors besides water whichlead to methane generation in ricefields. For instance, the Indian studyfinds that methane is highly depen-dent on the nature of the soil. Acidicsoils of Kerala give negligible emis-sions while alkaline soils of Dehradunhave higher emissions. Obviously, a lot more scientific work isneeded before global values can becalculated and actions suggested.

phere on a global scale and threatening theworlds people with a climatic cataclysm ? Infact, India can double its total carbondioxideemissions without threatening the worlds cli-mate. And if it controls its deforestation, then itcan increase its carbondioxide emissions fromfossil fuels several times.

On the contrary, the United States, with only4.73 per cent of the worlds population, emits asmuch as 26 per cent of the carbondioxide and 20percent of the methane that is absorbed, everyyear. It is the production of carbondioxide andmethane by countries like USA and Japan totally out of proportion to their populations andthat of the worlds absorptive capacity whichis entirely responsible for the accumulation ofunabsorbed carbondioxide and methane in the

8

atmosphere. In addition, these countries emitlarge quantities of CFCs chemicals which donot get absorbed at all. Japan accounts for 7.4per cent and USA for 25.8 per cent of the worldsconsumption of CFCs.

Not even one tonne of CFCs released into theatmosphere can get absorbed because there isno natural sink for them. As concerned environ-mentalists, we should propose that no countryshould be allowed to produce such chemicalswhich the atmosphere has no ability to cleansenaturally and all production of such chemicalsshould be added to the net emissions of the indi-vidual countries.

But the WRI report does not take countrieslike USA or Japan to task. On the contrary, itadopts a mathematical technique which puts theblame on several poor countries. WRI has calcu-lated the proportion of the worlds greenhousegases produced by a country like India and hasthen used this proportion to calculate Indias sharein the quantity of gases that are accumulating inthe atmosphere.

In other words, since India produces 12 percent of the total methane produced in the wholeworld in a year, India is also responsible for,according to WRI, 12 per cent of the methanethat has actually accumulated in the earthsatmosphere. This technique is such that if acountry like Maldives were to produce one tonneof carbon emissions, it would, in proportion tothe world production which may even be as highas several billion tonnes, be held responsible forglobal warming.

The obvious result of this exercise is that theresponsibility of countries like Japan and UnitedStates, who in the first place produce anextremely disproportionate amount of carbon-dioxide or methane compared to their popula-tion size, gets substantially reduced. By thesecalculations, WRI has permitted 2,519 milliontonnes of carbondioxide and 35.11 milliontonnes of methane produced by USA to becleaned away by the earths environment. ButIndia, with a population 3.4 times that of USA, isonly given a share of 604 million tonnes of car-bondioxide and 25.61 million tonnes of methaneto be cleaned away by the earths natural `sinks.Why should USA and other industrialised coun-tries get such a disproportionate share of theglobal sink ?

This set of calculations is, therefore, extremelyunfair in an interdependent world in which allhuman beings ought to be valued equally. CSE isappalled by the fact that this patently anti-poor andanti-Third World report has been prepared in col-laboration by United Nations agencies like theUnited Nations Environment Programme andUnited Nations Development Programmes and ithas been signed by UNEPs executive director,Mostafa Tolba, and UNDPs administrator, WilliamH Draper III. CSE calls upon Third World govern-

ments to take these agencies to task for sponsoringsuch a loaded report against the Third World,which is based on bad data, politically motivatedmathematics, unjust politics and makes a mockeryof human values.

We are equally appalled that the Ministry ofEnvironment in India has not yet pointed out tothe flaws in the report. By keeping quiet it is onlyacquiescing to and sabotaging the countrys andthe Third Worlds position in this crucial area. Infact, even worse, it does not seem to be aware ofthe political motivations of such global reports.How can the countrys interests be safeguardedby such an agency ?

Sharing a crucial global commonHow can we calculate each countrys share ofresponsibility for the accumulation of gases likecarbondioxide and methane in the earthsatmosphere ?

It is obvious that the concept of sustainabledevelopment demands that human beings collec-tively do not produce more carbondioxide andmethane than the earths environment can absorb.The question is how should this global common the global carbondioxide and methane sinks beshared amongst the people of the world ?

Several studies on the global warming prob-lem have argued, and we argue ourselves, that ina world that aspires to such lofty ideals like glob-al justice, equity and sustainability, this vitalglobal common should be shared equally on aper capita basis.

Using this principle, CSE has adopted the fol-lowing methodology to ascertain the net emis-sions which are posing a threat to the worlds cli-mate:1) The natural sinks for carbondioxide and

methane have been allocated to eachnation on a population basis. These quanti-ties then constitute the permissible emis-sions of each country. As no natural sinksexist for CFCs, no permissible shares forCFCs have been calculated.

2) The total emissions of each country of car-bondioxide and methane (as calculated byWRI) have then been compared with its per-missible emissions (as calculated by CSE)to ascertain the quantity of emissions thatare in excess of the permissible emissions.

3) The unused permissible emissions of coun-tries like India and China have been tradedwith the excess emitters on a populationbasis.

4) The permissible emissions, traded from lowemitting countries have been subtractedfrom the excess emissions of each countryto obtain the quantity of each countrys netemissions to the atmosphere of carbon-dioxide and methane.

5) The total greenhouse gas emissions havebeen obtained by adding the net emissions

Several studies on

the global warming

problem have argued,

and we argue

ourselves, that in a

world that aspires to

such lofty ideals like

global justice, equity

and sustainability,

this vital global

common should be

shared equally on a

per capita basis

9

10

88

of methane and carbondioxide (as obtainedby CSE) with the total emissions of CFCs (as given by WRI).

CSEs calculations clearly show, that there isone set of nations in the world which is emittinggreenhouse gases well within its share (or, inother words, its permissible limits) whereasthere is another set of countries which is exceed-ing its permissible limits by leaps and bounds.

Only two developed countries Albania andPortugal are within their permissible limits forcarbondioxide and 13 developed countries arewithin their methane limits. Industrialisedcountries together exceeded their permissiblequotas of carbondioxide by 2839 million tonnesof carbon equivalent, that is, 58 per cent of theexcess carbondioxide emissions. The worldwould have been truly worse off had the devel-oping countries used up their entire permissiblequotas. They actually provided space for about1459 million tonnes of carbon equivalent to bereleased in the form of carbondioxide out oftheir permissible quotas and be absorbed by theworlds natural sinks. Of this space India, Chinaand Pakistan alone provide unused permissiblequotas for carbondioxide amounting to 1015 mil-lion tonnes of carbon equivalent.

CSE has traded the natural `sink space leftavailable by countries like India and China withexcess users like USA and Japan in proportion totheir populations and, in this way, obtained thefinal list of countries whose excess emissions areaccumulating in the earths atmosphere thetrue culprits of the threat of global warming tohumanity. The results of this exercise are dra-matic and it shows up the real dirty nations ofthe world. USAs net contribution of greenhousegases which are accumulating in the atmospheregoes up from 1000 million tonnes of carbonequivalent to 1532 million tonnes of carbonequivalent. Correspondingly, USSRs contribu-tion goes up from 690 to 730 million tonnes ofcarbon equivalent; and, of Canada from 120 to

252 million tonnes. While contributions of Japan,West Germany and United Kingdom go down,France and Italy no longer appear in the list of top 15 greenhouse gas emitting nations. In CSEs analysis, these countries appear to berelatively efficient economies which are keepingtheir emissions closer to their global populationshare. Australia and East Germany take the placeof France and Italy in the top 15 greenhouse gas emitting nations. These dirt emitting nationsare clearly profligate in their emissions well beyond their global population share.Australia, with only about 0.3 per cent of theworlds population, is contributing to 1 per centof net emissions of carbondioxide and 7 per centof net emissions of methane. Australia is a country, which in just 200 years of its existence, has destroyed half of its forests andwoodlands.10 Just two countries, USA and USSR,which have about 10 per cent of the worlds population are responsible for about 40 per centof the worlds net emissions of carbon dioxide.Again, just two countries, United States andCanada, together account for two-thirds of the net emissions of methane. As far as develop-ing countries in WRIs list of top 15 emitters are concerned, India, China, Mexico andIndonesia go out of the list completely. The con-tribution of Brazil and Myanmar goes up. Chinasand Indias total net emissions to the atmos-phere fall from 380 and 230 million tonnes of car-bon to 35 and 0.7 million tonnes of carbon, resp-ectively. India and China do not account for even0.5 per cent of net emissions to the atmospherewhere WRI claims they contribute togetherabout 10 per cent. CFCs constitute the only gasesas their net emissions. India, the CSE analysisshows, is the worlds lowest net emitter of green-house gases in per capita terms. Similarly,Mexicos and Indonesias contributions fall from78 and 140 to 9.1 and 9.5 million tonnes of carbonequivalent, respectively. In terms of net emissionsof greenhouse gases to the atmosphere, one

11

Table 1NNaattuurraall SSiinnkkss ooff GGrreeeennhhoouussee GGaasseess

WRI Estimates1 IPSEP estimates2

Greenhouse Total Amount Net Emissions to Amount Absorbed by the Natural sinkGases Produced the Atmosphere worlds Environment available3

million million tonnes million million tonnes million million tonnes million tonnes of carbon tonnes of carbon tonnes of carbon tonnesof the gas equivalent of the gas equivalent of the gas equivalent of the gas

Carbondioxide 31,100 8,500 13,600 3,700 17,500 4,800 15,000Methane 255 4,800 43 00 212 4,000 213CFCs 772 1,400 772 1,400 Nil Nil NilTotal - 14,700 - 5,900 - 8,800 -

Notes : 1 WRI: World Resources Institute.2 PSEP: International Project on Soft Energy Paths.3 Natural sink available = Total natural sink - Production from natural sources.

12

Americans is equal to 8150 Indians.A mere 15 countries nine industrialised

and six developing countries account for over83 per cent of the net emissions of all green-house gases which are accumulating in theatmosphere. Action is, therefore, urgently and,should we say, desperately needed in thesecountries most of all.

As a group, however, the contribution ofdeveloping countries does not fall dramaticallymainly because of Brazil which now accounts forover half of all the greenhouse gas emissionsfrom the Third World. Nonetheless, the share ofindustrialised countries goes up from 53 percent, as calculated by WRI, to 67 per cent thatis, from about one-half to one-third.

But when Brazils deforestation rate ischanged and taken to be the annual average forthe decade from 1978 to 1988, the contribution ofgreenhouse gas emissions by the Third Worlddrops to only about one-fifth of the total and theindustrialised countries, with about a quarter ofthe worlds population, account for 80 per centof the worlds greenhouse gas emissions evenafter receiving carbondioxide to the tune of 922million tonnes of carbon equivalent and methaneto the tune of 549 million tonnes of carbon equiv-alent as tradeable permissible quotas.

Tradeable EmissionsThe latest literature on management of commonproperty resources shows clearly that an

exploitation system based on gifts and a free forall inevitably leads to its degradation the well-known `tragedy of the commons. In order thatall those countries which are overusing or mis-using the worlds environment pay a price, CSEproposes a two-tier system one set will con-sist of charges and another of fines to bringrationality into the global use of the atmosphere.

In all market economies of the world, pollu-tion control economists are now talking aboutthe concept of tradeable emission quotas, whichallow low-level polluters to trade their unusedpermissible emissions with high-level polluters.Overall, this system leads to better economics asit provides an economic incentive to the low-level polluters to keep their pollution levels lowand an economic disincentive to the high-levelpolluters to reduce their emissions. Expectingeveryone to adhere to a standard pollution limitdoes not provide any incentive to low-level pol-luters to keep their pollution levels low. In otherwords, what the world needs is a system whichencourages a country like India to keep its emis-sions as low as possible and pushes a countrylike USA to reduce its emissions fast.

CSE believes that a system of global trade-able permits should be introduced to controlglobal greenhouse gas emissions. All countriesshould be given tradeable quotas in proportionto their population share and the total quotasshould equal the worlds natural sinks. Thequantity of unused permissible emissions can be

Expecting everyone

to adhere to a

standard pollution

limit does not provide

any incentive to

low-level polluters to

keep their pollution

levels low. In other

words, what the world

needs is a system

which encourages a

country like India to

keep its emissions as

low as possible and

pushes a country like

USA to reduce its

emissions fast

13

Table 2

Comparison of CSE and WRI figures of Annual Net Emissions of allGreenhouse bases to the atmosphere (top 15 emitters)

W R I C S E

Sl. Country Net Emissions Country Net EmissionsNo. of Greenhouse of Greenhouse

gases gases(million tonnes (million tonnes

of carbon of carbonequivalent) equivalent)

1 United States 1000 United States 1532

2 U.S.S.R 690 Brazil 1017

3 Brazil 610 U.S.S.R. 730

4 China 380 Canada 252

5 India 230 Germany, Fed Rep 155

6 Japan 220 Japan 140

7 Germany, F.R. 160 United Kingdom 132

8 United Kingdom 150 Australia 112

9 Indonesia 140 Saudi Arabia 97

10 France 120 Colombia 86

11 Italy 120 Cote dlvoire 82

12 Canada 120 German Dem Rep 82

13 Mexico 78 Myanmar 81

14 Myanmar 77 Lao Peoples Dem Rep 78

15 Poland 76 Poland 77

sold by low-level greenhouse gas emitting coun-tries to high-level greenhouse gas producers at acertain fixed rate.

But any excess discharges which lead to anaccumulation in the atmosphere and, thus, con-stituted global threat for climate destabilisation,should be fined at a higher rate and given over toa `global climate protection fund. The fund canbe used to assist those countries which areaffected by climate destabilisation and to devel-op technologies that will reduce greenhouse gasemissions. These technologies can then be usedby all humankind. Such a system should providean incentive to countries like India to keep theirshare of greenhouse gas emissions low and forcecountries like USA to reduce their emissionsrapidly and, thus, all will join the race to savethe planet.

What charges should low emitters levy onhigh emitters for a share in their tradeable emis-sions ? The IPSEP study, which was carried outfor the Dutch government, suggests that suchthe charge could be pegged at $15 per 1000tonnes of carbon emitted into the air (which isequivalent to 3.7 tonnes of carbondioxide and 0.5tonne of methane). This amount in 1986, takinginto account the global fuel mix in that year,

would have been roughly equal to a ten per centincrease in that years crude oil prices.5

Using the same figure, CSE finds that Indiawould be able to charge excess emitters a sum ofUS $8.3 billion per year for its share in permissi-ble emissions (or about 50 per cent of the coun-trys annual investment in the power sector dur-ing the Seventh Plan) whereas USA would haveto pay US $6.3 billion to purchase unused per-missible emission quotas. Twenty developingcountries together would receive about US $30billion China $11.31 billion, India $8.28 billion,Pakistan $2.08 billion, Nigeria $1.45 billion andBangladesh $1.06 billion every year.

But if the non permissible emissions thatfinally accumulate in the atmosphere are fined ata higher rate of US $30 per tonne of carbon equiv-alent emissions, then a Global ClimateProtection Fund of about US $90 billion annuallycould be created from the contributions of devel-oped countries and oil-rich countries like SaudiArabia. USA alone would have to pay a sum of US$38.3 billion to the global fund.

IPSEP StudyIt is interesting to note that the Dutch govern-ment-sponsored IPSEP study, like the CSE study,

14

CSE finds that India

would be able to

charge excess

emitters a sum of

US $8.3 billion per

year for its share in

permissible emissions

(or about 50 per cent

of the countrys

annual investment in

the power sector

during the Seventh

Plan) whereas USA

would have to pay

US $6.3 billion

to purchase

unused permissible

emission quotas

Table 3

Percentage Distribution of Annual Net Emissions of Industrialised and Developing countries of allGreenhouse gases (as calculated by CSE)

Region Percentage Percentage Percentage Percentage ofof global of global of global Permissible

Net Emissions Net Emissions Net Emissions Emissions(as per CSE) (as per WRI) after modifying (as per CSE)

Brazilsestimates of

deforestation(as per CSE)(1)

(%) (%) (%) (%)

Industrialised Countries 66.95 52.60 78.54 23.60

USA 27.44 16.95 32.16 4.73

Japan 2.51 3.90 2.94 2.34

Western Europe 11.89 14.32 14.00 6.82

Eastern Europe 4.54 4.32 5.32 2.61

USSR 13.08 11.70 15.33 5.46

Australia 2.00 1.07 2.35 0.32

Developing Countries 33.05 47.40 21.46 76.40

India 0.013 3.90 0.015 16.18

China 0.57 6.44 0.67 21.53

Brazil 18.21 10.34 4.13 2.85

Asia (excluding Japan) 7.97 21.69 9.03 56.45

Africa

(excluding South Africa) 3.04 4.69 3.61 11.56

Americas

(excluding USA & Canada) 22.03 16.61 8.59 8.39

Note : 1) Assuming the decadal annual average of deforestation (1978-88).

15

reaches the same conclusion that the onus tocurtail the global warming problem lies largelyon industrialised countries. The report arguesthat the average rate of global warming shouldbe limited, as closely as possible, to 0.1C perdecade and, as an outer limit, to an increase of2oC by 2100 over the present. In that case, theearths temperature would remain within therange that human beings have seen in the periodsince their evolution two million years ago. Thiswould also restrict the sea level rise to a moder-ate, and may be manageable, level of about 1 mwhereas a rise of 5-7 m would be absolutely dis-astrous. This means that the maximum allow-able concentration of all greenhouse gases (car-bon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, CFCs etc.)should not exceed 430-450 parts per million(ppm) of carbondioxide equivalent during thenext century (compared to about 400 ppm now)provided these levels decline thereafter. Inother words, concentration of carbondioxideitself should not exceed 380 ppm (compared to338 in 1980 and 349 in 1985) while other green-house gases together add up to another 50 ppmof carbon dioxide equivalent. IPSEPs calcula-tions show that this means that only a total of300 billion tonnes of carbon (btC) can bereleased between 1985 and 2100 or roughly 2.6btC each year.

Carbondioxide is accumulating in the atmos-phere both because of the burning of fossil fuelsand forests. The IPSEP study argues thatincreased afforestation efforts and future con-trols on deforestation can ensure that net addi-tions of carbondioxide to the atmospherebecause of deforestation become nil. Therefore,only energy production as the major source ofcarbondioxide releases should be taken intoaccount. The question, therefore, is how shouldthis 300 btC global carbon emissions budget(over period 1986-2100) ought to be shared ?

Like CSE, IPSEP also argues that global jus-tice demands that this budget be shared on thebasis of population (person-years). If the exist-ing and projected populations of industrialisedand developed countries between 1986 and 2100are taken into account, then developed coun-tries will exhaust their entire carbon releasequota of 48 btC till 2100 by 1999 (that is, in thenext seven years), if they continue to release car-bondioxide at their 1986 levels. Developing coun-tries, on the other hand, will be able to emit car-bondioxide at their 1986 rate until 2169 AD.

The IPSEP study further points out that it isimportant to take into account the fact thatdeveloped and developing countries have beenpushing out carbondioxide into the atmosphereat vastly different rates for a long time. If this his-

16

torical inequity is taken into account, and thepermissible global carbon emissions budget of428 bt from 1950 till 2000, instead of the 300 btCglobal carbon emissions budget between 1986and 2100, is distributed between industrialisedand developing countries, then developing coun-tries can continue to emit carbondioxide at their1986 rate till 2241 AD. But industrialised coun-tries had already exhausted their entire quotaby 1986. In other words, they ought to stop allcarbondioxide emissions right away.

The recent report of the South Commissionalso states categorically that though the pro-tection of the environment is a matter of globalconcern calling for global measures ... the man-ner in which the North is attempting to definethe issues introduces an element of potentialNorth-South conflict. ...... the North is in effectdemanding that the South should give priority toenvironmental protection over developmentobjectives. It is also attempting to put in placemechanisms for Northern monitoring and con-trol over development policies in the South thatcould have environmental implications. This isunacceptable on several counts. Singling outdeveloping countries as a main source of the threatto the global environment obscures the fact thatthe ecological stress on the global commons has inlarge part been caused by the North. The North,with only 20 per cent of the earths population,

accounts for 85 per cent of the global consump-tion of non-renewable energy. The North hasalready used much of the planets ecological cap-ital. It will have to take important measures toadjust its pattern of production and consump-tion in order to mitigate the clear threat to theearths environment. It will also have to reduceits consumption of certain key naturalresources, such as non-renewable fossil fuels, to accommodate the industrialisation and economic development of the South.11

The IPSEP report concludes that the call ofthe 1988 Toronto World Conference on theChanging Atmosphere to reduce world emis-sions of carbondioxide from energy productionby 20 per cent by 2005 AD should be under-stood as a target for industrialised countries.By 2015, they should reduce their carbon releaselevels by 50 per cent and by 2030, 75 per cent.

While endorsing the IPSEP conclusion, CSEwould like to point out that it does not, however,mean that developing countries should not under-take steps to make a better world. Deforestationshould definitely be controlled and afforestationrates should match the rates of wood use and burn-ing. As an environmental pressure group, CSE firm-ly believes that there are a variety of reasons like poverty, injustice and inequality thatdemand that governments of developing countriespromote environmentally-harmonious develop-ment strategies, and in which all people haveequal access to the precious resources of the envi-ronment for their survival. But it also believes thatit is immoral for developed countries to preachenvironmental constraints and conditionalities todeveloping countries. They must first set their ownhouse in order.

Impact of Western mediaThe manner in which the WRI report has beenflashed across the world raises serious ques-tions about the role of the Western mass media.It is strange that the IPSEP report received nopublicity as compared to the WRI report eventhough the IPSEP study was undertaken by well-known energy analysts. IPSEPs main authorswere Floretin Krause, an energy analyst at theLawrence Berkeley Laboratory in the US, andWilfrid Bach, a climatologist who is a member ofthe West German parliaments special commis-sion on preventing global warming.6

The media blitz of the WRI report has been sopowerful that even several Indian commentatorsand environmentalists have accepted the reportunquestioningly and have called upon the Indianpeople to accept their share of the blame(11).Indias Doordarshan even showed, on its primetime news programme, the press conference inWashington DC at which the WRI data wasreleased. It did not care to ask Indian scientistsabout the veracity of the data, as one of themcomplained at a recent CSE meeting.

All over the world,

there is growing

consciousness about

`Green Economics

and the need to

incorporate ecological

costs of production

into national income

and wealth accounts.

But what is the point

of doing this in a

developing country

if the rich and

powerful consumers

of the world are not

prepared to pay

the true cost of

their consumption ?

17

Lack of Third World researchThe entire episode also emphasises the fact thatThird World nations must undertake their ownresearch in this crucial area. They cannotdepend on Western institutions to present a truepicture of the global situation and safeguardtheir interests. The manner in which themethane and carbondioxide emissions of severaldeveloping countries have been calculated isitself open to questions. The database on contri-butions from deforestation, irrigated rice farm-ing and livestock management is still poor. It isvital that a reliable system of measuring defor-estation annually on a global and national basisis developed urgently.

Political Sagacity and FarsightednessBut most of all, the Third World today needs far-sighted political leadership. For the first time,the Western world and its environmental move-

ments are arguing that we have to manage theworld as one entity. But the same Western politi-cians from Margaret Thatcher to George Bush who talk so glibly about an interdependentworld show no interest in the travails of theThird World. Through quotas, embargoes andsubsidies to their own farmers, and throughemerging biotechnology, they consistentlydepress Third World commodity prices. TheWest has never been prepared to pay the trueecological costs of the goodies it consumes from bananas, tea, coffee and cocoa to prawns.

All over the world, there is growing con-sciousness about `Green Economics and theneed to incorporate ecological costs of produc-tion into national income and wealth accounts.But what is the point of doing this in a develop-ing country if the rich and powerful consumersof the world are not prepared to pay the truecost of their consumption ? That is not an eco-

Solutions for global warming are becomingmore and more ludicrous. The latest is to planttrees in the countries of the Third World to fixthe dirty carbon thrown out into the air byWestern nations to that the West can continueto expand its fleet of cars, power stations andindustries while the Third World grows trees.The first such schemes started in the US. Apower generating company, Applied EnergyServices of Arlington, Virginia which is buildinga power plant in Connecticut has entered into anagreement with a US voluntary agency to planttrees, not in the US but in Guatemala. The com-pany has meticulously calculated that the new180 megawatt power plant will emit 387,000tonnes of carbon each year during its 40 yearlife. And that planting 52 million trees willabsorb this dirt. It has undertaken a project withthe international relief and developmentagency, CARE to plant trees in Guatemala andhelp the poor farmers. It will pay US $ two million for this exercise. A UNEP magazine even describes this dubious exercise as aninteresting scheme to attempt to reverse or balance the greenhouse effect of its power-house emissions.1

This concept has now been accepted by the gov-ernment of Netherlands. It has budgeted asmuch as US $ 0.5 billion to plant 250,000 hectaresof trees in Bolivia, Peru and Colombia. TheseCarbon sink forests will offset the six milliontonnes of carbondioxide which will be emittedby the two new coal fired electricity plants to bebuilt between Amsterdam and Rotterdam.2

Charity is also good business for the Dutch as itcosts 12 times more to plant trees at home ascompared to poor developing countries.2

Otherwise why not plant trees in the developedworld. In fact, according to one estimate if 75 percent of the non forested land in the US wasunder forests it would be enough to fix all theexcess emissions of carbondioxide in the airevery year.3

The fate of the Third World in this garbage busi-ness is now clear. As far as the West is concernedit can live to fix its carbon or plant cheap trees ordispose its toxic wastes as has been the case inthe past. A World Bank staff paper has evengiven this garbage business a high soundingnew name; intergenerational compensationproject.4 Whose generation are they talkingabout ?

References :1. Anon 1989, Plant Trees. Conserve Evergy to

Counter Greenhouse Effect, in Our Plant,March 1989, United Nations EnvironmentProgramme, Nairobi.

2. Robert Goodland et al 1990, Tropical MostForest management: The Urgent Transitionto Sustainability, paper presented at aSeminar on Economics of the Sustainable Useof Forest Resources, April 1990, Centre forScience and Environment, New Delhi,Mimeo.

3. Robert A. Sedjo 1989, Forest: A tool toModerate Global Worming? in Environment,Volume 31, No. 1, January-February, Heldrefpublications, Washington.

4. John Pezzey 1989, Economic Analysis ofSustainable Growth and SustainableDevelopment, Environment Depart WorkingPaper No. 15, March 1989, The world Bank,Washington.

THE THIRD : SINK FOR THE WESTS DIRT

nomic issue but an intensely political issue.In fact, a close look at WRIs figures on a lot of

what this American institution calls Third Worldgreenhouse gas emissions (resulting from forexample, natural gas transport and explorationor deforestation) essentially arise out of notThird World consumption but Western con-sumption. For example, Algerias methane emis-sions are directly related to its export of naturalgas to Europe.

Now that five per cent to 15 per cent of thevote in Western countries goes to green issues,Western politicians are falling over themselves,including those with extremely conservative anderstwhile anti-environment credentials, to por-tray themselves green and capture the greenvote. For many of them international environ-mental issues are easier to divert attention awayfrom domestic environmental issues. MargaretThatcher did not have a particularly greatrecord on the domestic environment front butshe waxed eloquent about saving the ozonelayer. Third World politicians and environmen-talist must beware of such Western politiciansready to shed crocodile tears.

They must insist with Western leaders thatglobal environmental concerns cannot be cho-sen on an adhoc basis by the rich and powerfulactors in the world. We too believe that theworld is one and we welcome this belated reali-sation within the all-powerful, all-consumingWest. But if issues like climate change have toput on the global agenda, then it is equally

important to put environmental problems likedesertification, land and water degradation, anddeteriorating terms of trade of biomass productsthat are discounting the future of both presentand future generations in the Third World, onthe global agenda. The global environmentalagenda, as it is being framed by the West, mustbe questioned. The agenda itself has become pol-itics. Global citizenship demands global caringand sharing not global hysteria and fiats.

Given the East-West detente, and the growingpower of the global market system, it is unlikelythat the Third World can ever disassociate itselffrom it. The Third World, therefore, has to fightand insist upon better terms of trade, accep-tance of its own ecological concerns, and a fairshare in the global environmental commons.Third World politicians cannot afford to negotiatebadly and cheaply or in ignorance and, thus, for-sake the interests of their future generations forsome Meryl Streep-kind of mushy environmental-ism that is today being beamed into Indias homesin the name of environmental education.

Environmental issues are discussed regular-ly now at all summits of Western leaders, the so-called Group of Seven. It is high time that ThirdWorld leaders showed the courage, imaginationand understanding to come together possiblyin the form of a Third World forum on interna-tional environmental issues to understandand present their developmental issues in thenew environmental language and context. Theycannot simply sit back and oppose the Wests

18

Now that five per cent

to 15 per cent of

the vote in Western

countries goes to

green issues,Western

politicians including

those with extremely

conservative

and traditionally

anti-environment

credentials, to portray

themselves green and

capture the green

vote. For many of

them international

environmental issues

are easier to divert

attention away

from domestic

environmental issues

Table 4

Comparison of CSE and WRI figures of Per capita Annual Net Emissionsof all Greenhouse Gases to the atmosphere

W R I C S E

Per capita Per capitaS Country Annual Net Country Annual Net

No Emissions of Emissions ofGreenhouse Greenhouse

gases gases(tonnes of (tonnes of

carbon carbonequivalent) equivalent)

1 Lao Peoples D R 10.00 Qatar 27.01

2 Qatar 8.80 Lao Peoples Dem Rep 19.06

3 United Arab Emirates 5.80 Canada 9.51

4 Bahrain 4.90 Oman 8.79

5 Canada 4.50 United Arab Emirates 8.53

6 Luxembourg 4.30 Bahrain 8.42

7 Brazil 4.30 New Zealand 7.13

8 Cote dIvoire 4.20 Kuwait 7.11

9 United States 4.20 Saudi Arabia 6.88

10 Kuwait 4.10 Brazil 6.76

11 Australia 3.90 Australia 6.70

12 German D R 3.70 Cote dlvoire 6.52

13 Oman 3.50 United States 6.15

14 Saudi Arabia 3.30 Luxembourg 5.62

15 New Zealand 3.20 German Dem Rep 4.94

19

agenda. Their inaction will not be able to with-stand the Western media blitz. They have to propose an agenda of their own an agendathat responds to the economic, political, culturaland resource realities of the Third World. If presented in environmental terms, there is a definite possibility that the youthful green lobbies in the West which today criticise theThird World, could become its allies. The ThirdWorld leadership must now present its own con-cept of a sustainable future to win the supportand the hearts and minds of the green youthacross the world in the Third World itself andin the West.

All this will demand enormous steadfastnessand personal costs from Third World leadersand environmentalists and an effort to under-stand the environmental roots of their own coun-tries. The Western media will fete any ThirdWorld politician who is prepared to speak onenvironmental issues as the Westerners do andaccept their brand of high-sounding but, as yet,hypocritical `one worldism. There will be nodearth of TV appearances and programmes,newspaper interviews, invitations to internation-al conferences, Western style money, and per-sonal name and fame across the globe. But it isequally easy to sell out the interests of the futuregenerations of the Third World in the glib nameof global environmentalism and global charity.

For the poor it will remain a harsh and viciousworld which is not prepared to give them a fairplace.

Action in IndiaNone of this means that India should not regen-erate its environment or that it should not be effi-cient in its use of energy. This will also be ourbest defence against any possible impact of glob-al warmin. As only if the diverse ecosystems ofIndia are functioning at the optimum levels ofproductivity, the effects of the expected changesin the global climate will become somewhat man-ageable. But if, as today, our land and waterresource base remains highly stressed anddegraded and even normal conditions constitutea near crisis situation, normal conditions consti-tute anear crisis situation, climatic perturba-tions will throw the society into a state of totalemergency.

But to carry out this strategy to improve landproductivity and meet peoples survival needsdevelopment strategies will have to be ecosys-tem-specific and holistic. It would be necessaryto plan for each component of the village ecosys-tem and not just trees from grasslands, forestlands and crop lands to water. To do this, thecountry will need much more than just glibwords about peoples participation or waste-lands development. It will demand bold and

Table 5

Trade amounts and damages payable by top 15 industrialised and oil-rich net emitters (as calculated by CSE)

Country Trade amounts payable Damages payable to Total Tradeto other Countries a Global Fund amounts and(at $15 per 000 (at $25 per 000 damagestonnes of Carbon tonnes of carbon payableequivalent) for equivalent)purchasing for Net Emissionstradeable quotas to the atmosphereof PermissibleEmissions(million $) (million $) (million $)

United States 6,305 38,293 44,598

USSR 5,421 18,252 23,673

Canada 670 6,302 6,973

Japan 1,427 3,499 4,926

Germany, Fed Rep 730 3,868 4,598

United Kingdom 1,243 3,307 4,550

Australia 423 2,798 3,220

France 1,183 1,725 2,908

Saudi Arabia 357 2,426 2,783

Poland 670 1,929 2,599

Italy 662 1,915 2,577

German Dem Rep 192 2,050 2,242

Netherlands 374 1,439 1,814

Spain 166 1,200 1,366

South Africa 706 616 1,322

Total 20,529 89,619 1,10,149

20

imaginative steps to strengthen and deepenlocal democracy by creating and empow-

ering democratic and open village insti-tutions. Only then will the people get

involved in managin their environment.It will mean dismantling the inefficient and

oppressive government apparatus and changinglaws so that people can act without waiting for agood bureaucrat to come along. As laws exist,planting trees on government wastelands canland villagers in jail. Thegovernment is the bigestand the worst land and water owner in the coun-try.

Those who talk about global warming shouldconcentrate on what ought to be done at home.The challenge for India is thus to get on with thejob at hand and leave the business of dirty tricksand dirtying up the world to others. In thisprocess, we will help ourselves and may be even,the rest of the world.

Referemce1. World Resources Institute 1990, World Resources 1990-91:

A Guide to the Golobal Environment, Oxfort UniversityPress, New York.

2. Christoper Falvin 1989, Slowing Global Warming:

A Worldwide Strategy, Worldwatch paper 91, WorldwatchInstitute, Washington, D.C.

3. James Gustave Speth 1990, coming to Terms: toward a North South compact for the Environment, inEnvironment, Vol. 32, No. 5 June 1990, Heldref Publications,Washington DC.

4. Michael Stott 1989, third World Fossil Fuel PollutionPrompts Worries, in Los Angeles Times, November 19, Los Angeles.

5. Floretin Krause, Wilfrid Bach and Jon Koomey 1989, EnergyPolicy in the Greenhouse, Vol 1, International Project forSustainable Energy Paths, EI Cerrito.

6. roger Milne 1989, Industrialised Countries ,must makedeepest carbon cuts, in New Scientist, December 2, London.

7. Forest Survey of India 1989, The State of Forest Report 1989,Dehradun.

8. James J. Mackenzie and Mohamed T El-Ashry 1988, IllWinds: Airborn Polllutions Toll on Trees and Crops, worldResources Institute, Washington, DC.

9. Yusuf J Ahmad 1990, Evergy Issues in EnvironmentalEconomics, paper presented at a Seminar on Economics ofthe Sustainable Use of Forest Resources, April 1990, Centrefor Science and Environment, New Delhi, mimeo.

10. Anon 1989, One Billion Trees: Our Country, Our Future,Department of the Arts, Sports, the Environment, Tourismand Territories, Canberra.

11. Anon 1990, The Challenge to the South: The Report of theSouth Commission, Osford University Press, New York.

12. Darryl DMonte 1990, Environment on UN Agenda: Fissuresshow up, In Times of India, September 30, New Delhi.

Table 6

Trade amounts receivable by top 20 countries which trade quotas of Permissible Emissions of Carbondioxide and Methane (as calculated by CSE)

Sl. Country Trade amounts Trade amounts Total TradeNo. receivable for receivable for Amounts

trading quotas trading quotas recevableof Permissible of PermissibleEmissions of Emissions ofCarbon Dioxide Methane (at $ 15(at $ 15 per per 000 tonnes of000 tonnes of carbon equivalent)carbon equivalent)

(m $) (m $) (m $)

1. China 6561 4747 11308

2. India 7228 1057 8285

3. Pakistan 1445 638 2083

4. Nigeria 439 1010 1449

5. Bangladesh 1499 -434 1065

6. Egypt 431 338 769

7. Ethiopia 510 171 681

8. Turkey 202 314 516

9. Morocco 259 208 467

10. Kenya 298 122 420

11. Tanzania 292 106 398

12. Uganda 215 140 356

13. Zaire -48 339 291

14. Afghanistan 210 73 283

15. Iran, Islamic Rep 177 84 261

16. Sri Lanka 193 59 252

17. Mozambique 105 145 250

18. Ghana 80 143 223

19. Iraq 60 161 221

20. Yemen Arab Rep 96 71 167

Total 20252 9492 29744

21

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