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Grain & Feed Milling Technology is published six times a year by Perendale Publishers Ltd of the United Kingdom. All data is published in good faith, based on information received, and while every care is taken to prevent inaccuracies,
the publishers accept no liability for any errors or omissions or for the consequences of action taken on the basis of information published.©Copyright 2010 Perendale Publishers L td. All rights reserved. No par t of this publication may be reproduced in any formor by any means without prior permission of the copyright owner. Printed by Perendale Publishers Ltd. ISSN: 1466-3872
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GLOBAL GRAIN & FEED MARKETS
Every issue GFMT’s market analys t John Buckley reviewsworld trading conditions which are impacting the full range
of commodities used in food and feed production. Hisobservations will influence your decision-making.
WHAT a difference one
summer can make!
Six months ago the
key issue for the
world wheat market was how low
prices might go amid the rise and
rise of cut-price exports from Russia
and other ‘Black Sea’ countries, the
erosion of more traditional supplier’s
market shares and the ensuing threat
of major planting cuts for winter-sown2011 crops outside of the former Soviet
Union (FSU).
This autumn, Russia and its neighbours are stillthe top talking point but for the reverse reason
as savage drought slashes their contribution to
world export supplies and sends world wheat
prices scuttling back to their highest level in two
years. It’s doubly unfortunate for consumers that
this should occur in a year when European and
Canadian crops have also suffered unusual weather
problems. But the situation is nowhere near as dire
as in 2007/08, when crop failures, much tighter
starting stocks, the first big boom in bio-fuel
demand for feedgrains and ballooning commodity
investments by speculators helped drive prices
to record highs of over $450 per tonne for soft
wheat and twice that for hard milling varieties.
The main difference this time is the massive
stock left over from the past two bumper seasons.
This will go a long way to supplement export
supplies in 2010/11. Much of the surplus is held
in the largest exporting country, the USA, where
good crops this year can keep the world market
well-supplie d. Even with a smaller crop this
year, the EU remains a big player in the export
league – though at potential risk of leaving its
internal market finely balanced and thus at risk
of continuing high prices. High quality supplier
Australia meanwhile seems to have a good crop
and will also be keen to cash in on a world market
hungry for alternatives to FSU supplies. An othermajor supplier, Argentina’s crop is bouncing back
from last year’s drought affected lows while
India is sitting on record crops and turning from
sometime importer to exporter .
But inevitably, the floor price of internationally-
traded soft milling wheat, as formerly set by the
Russians and co, has risen sharply from the $160’s
of this summer closer to $280/300 recently while
hard North American spring wheats for beldnign
up flour quality are back in the mid-$300’s (from
a summer low of $270). Even amply-supplied US
hard red winter grades – the top exporter’s most
widely-sold wheat – have more than doub led in
price to over $300 per tonne.
Two key factors
caused a shift of
emphasis in the
maize market
during the last
month. One was
an official update
of US planted area
which came in
well below trade
expectations. The
other was a lower
than expected US
quarterly stock
estimate at June
1, the result of
feeders and ethanol
consumers having
to use more of last
year’s lower quality
crop to get the
same end result.
How long will the wheat boom last?
Gain&fd illinG hnlGy34 | September - ctober 2010
COMMODITIES
Will these prices stick, increase further or
eventually fall back? The answer to this lies
largely in the extent to which the 2011 world
wheat crop can bounce back, especially in the
still-dry areas of Russia and Ukraine where
the threat of contracting area and/or poor
crop germination is causing considerable
unease in the markets as we go to press. If
rain does spread over these areas by early
October, then these crops are in with a
chance of fairly normal development, if at
risk of late establishment ahead of the oft en
harsh Russian winter. Forward wheat prices
will also be influenced by how much other
farmers in the northern hemisphere expand
their 2010/11 sowings. US winter wheat is
already expected cover 10/15% more land.
With the promise of €200/tonne plus prices
for some time yet, European producers must
also have been tempted to sow more. The
same applies to countries, like Canada, where
spring plantings dominate wheat production.
Many of our readers may remember that
after the last supply squeeze, world wheat
sowings rose and crops bounced back by
an incredible 70m tonnes in just one year
– far exceeding consumption needs and
in the process setting the stage for the
past season’s depressed wheat prices.
Remarkably, this took the Chicago wheat
futures prices (closely followed by Europe
then and now) back from a February 2008
high of over $13/bushel to the $4.50’s by
December of that year.
A repeat can’t be assumed for the coming
year. No two seasons are ever the same and
there is too much uncertainty at the moment
over the FSU situation, as well as some
lingering weather issues in other parts of the
Gain&fd illinG hnlGy September - ctober 2010 | 35
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Gain&fd illinG hnlGy September - ctober 2010 | 5
Commodity highlights
Wheat - some of the facts
and figures…
With more than a little help from the
trigger-happy speculative community, wheat
prices that, as recently as June, seemed likely
to test four-year lows, have instead heading
back toward the highs that followed the
last big crop shortfall in 2007/08. European
markets have been no exception, soft milling
wheat recently trading as much as 80% higher
than in June. Steep increases have also been
seen in higher protein hard wheat prices,
especially US hard red winter wheat which
has enjoyed an export boom on the back of
short FSU supplies. But just how short is
world ‘exportable’ wheat supply in reality
and what are the longer implications for
prices? The short answer is that this is not
yet a repeat of 2007/08. For even with all
the downward revisions to the world wheat
crop (about 25m tonnes since June), current
season’s world supplies are still adequate to
meet demand - without taking next year’s
global carryover stocks down to risky low
levels. Indeed, the stock foreseen at the closeof this season on June 30 2011 is currently
just 18m tonnes lower than this year’s
massive 196m, making it the second highest
of the past nine years. (chart1).
After the first burst of strength in world
wheat prices in early August – as the full
extent of Russian and other ‘Black Sea’
countries’ problems began to break – this
message of restraint appeared to be making
an impact, sending prices partway back as
August wore on. However, the persistence
of drought well into Russia’s planting season
for winter-sown 2011 crops, its decision to
pull out of the export market (initially until
end-2010, then until after its 2011 harvest
has been counted) have recently put wh eat
prices back on the boil again. De facto export
halts by Ukraine and Kazakhstan and the
likelihood that any surpluses they have will
flow to Russia added to the bullish mood,
along with recent threat of frost cutting the
quality of the weather-delayed Canadian
harvest.
The volume of attention wheat has
received in the broader media has probably
contributed too by encouraging already
excited hedge funds and other speculators to
bet on prices rising and making them a profit.
As mentioned in this column before, the sums
be required by the world
market, mainly in China’s
growing feed industry
and in other countries
substituting it for tighter,
more expensive feedwheat.
This will leave world end
stocks of maize at 136m
tonnes at the end of the
2010/11 season. It sounds
a lot but is uncomfortably
low in relation to demand
that has grown by a
staggering 100m tonnes in
just four years!
Thanks to the FSU &
and EU crop problems, the
world barley market is in
even tighter supply, output
dropping by 16% or 24m
tonnes this year to just
126m tonnes – its lowest
level in decades. Despite
expected stock drawdowns
and a reduction in global
usage, this has already
pushed EU feed barley
prices up by as much as136% at one stage, turning
barley’s normal discount to
maize and feed wheat into
big price premiums. Clearly
bigger barley crops will also be needed next
year to bring this market under control.
The good news is all on the oilmeal
side of the feed markets,
thanks largely to a surge
in world soyabean
production. In a year of
disappointing EU/ FSU
rapeseed and sunflower
production, this has
been a huge restraining
influence across the
protein sector and, on
current crop pointers,
may continue to anchor
prices in the months ahead. However,
the oilseed raw materials cannot divorce
themselves from what is happening on the
cereal markets. Feedgrain shortages will
see some extra demand for oilmeals. Even
more importantly, when next spring comes
around, the all-important US soyabean
crop will need to be priced at a level that
can compete for farmland with the cereal
crops.
globe. But that experience is, nonetheless,
one good reason why the speculators and
the grain trade alike should be treating this
current ‘wheat boom’ with some caution.
Maize prices have also risen sharply in the
last two months to nudge two-year highs
amid lower than expected US, CIS and EU
production, partially offset by better than
expected Chinese output. Speculators
have helped push prices up through the
US markets, still focusing on the growth of
world demand. Although US consumption
growth has slowed (less feed use offsetting
more into ethanol) another 10m tonnes will
World wheat supply snapshot
(mn t onnes ) 2010/11 2009/10 2008/9
USA 61.6 60.3 68
EU 135.1 138.3 151.1
Canada 22.5 26.5 28.6
Australia 23/25 22.5 21.4
Argentina 12 9.6 10.1
Russia 42.5 61.7 63.7
Ukraine 17 20.9 25.9
Kazakhstan 11.5 17 12.6
WORLD output 643/5 680 683
Consumption 661 650 642
EU wheat production by country
(mn t o nnes) 2010/11 2009/10 2008/9
France 37.8 38.3 39.5
Germany 23.5 25.1 26.0
UK 14/15.5 14.4 17.3
Poland 8.1 9.8 9.3
Italy 7.2 7.0 9.0
Rumania 6.0 4.8 7.8
Spain 5.4 4.8 6.7
Gain&fd illinG hnlGy36 | September - ctober 2010
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tonne fob from a low of $250 in June – an
unwelcome cost increase for millers but
a world away yet from the $800 reached
during the 2008 shortages. Canada’s Ontario
province could sow a record winter wheat
area amid firm world prices – although
a more important issue may be whether
wheat prices offer as much encouragement
for Canada’s mainly spring sown wheat crop.
Winter sown crops on the other hand usually
comprise almost 70% of the US national
wheat harvest and are bound to grab larger
area this autumn. Even before that potential
large crop starts arriving from May onwards,
the US is expected to carry forward 26m
tonnes of old crop stocks for the second
year running. The biggest share of these
will be hard wheats as most sought by the
world’s importers to blend with cheaper,
lower quality soft wheat supplies. A good
Australian crop and a bigger breadwheat crop
in Argentine will also help keep quality wheat
consumers supplied. Although Germany’s
normally high quality wheat crop may be
less than 50% milling, rather than the usual
80/90% , the top EU wheat producer, France,
has surmounted summer droughts and wet
harvests to produce a higher quality cropthan last year which will go some way to
meeting EU and foreign customers needs
Maize crops smaller thanexpected
MAIZE prices have risen close to two-year
highs on the U S and world markets in recent
weeks, partly due to a reduction in world
crop prospects and partly dragged up by the
rocketing cost of wheat for the feed sector.
Three months ago, world maize output was
expected to reach 836m tonnes, of which the
US would supply 340 m. Recently, however,
the world total has shrunk to 826m after
reductions for the US (now 334m, though
still a record high), Europe and the Ukraine.
Trade analysts expect world consumption
to increase by only 10m tonnes this season,
compared with almost 39m in 2009/10,
despite some shifting of global demand
from tight and expensive feed wheat and
barley into maize. The biggest increase is in
China (+4m tonnes at 160m) but this should
be easily catered for by domestic output if
the crop rises, as officials expect, to a new
record 166m (from 155m). Earlier this year,
US markets were abuzz with forecasts of
massive Chinese corn imports as domestic
will be nail-biting period for many months
to come as farmers pray for a mild winter
and more normal weather next spring and
summer.
That said, other wheat producers will
definitely respond to this challenge. In
the USA, where exporters are suddenly
enjoying the sort of bonzana sales they’d
almost written off for
good, there will be a
surge in winter wheat
sowings – perhaps
as much as 10-15%.
At the sort of prices
persisting on futures
mar.kets as we go to
press we can expect
a s imi lar react ion
across the Northern
Hemisphere. But will this mean a lot more
wheat next summer or more drawdowns on
those still comfortable surplus stocks? Only
time will tell. In the meantime, the futures
markets for wheat are showing a relatively
modest premium for mid-2011, eroding into
the autumn months on the hope of a world
crop rebound but still up in the region of
$7.50/bushel (about $276/tonne) on thebellwether Chicago exchange. My hunch
is that this over-rates the forward cost of
wheat and that medium/longer term prices
in the $5.50/6.50/bu range are more likely
– a level at which wheat may at least have a
better chance of defending its acreage further
down the road. However, a ‘back-to-back
Russian crop failure could
scuttle that prediction,
drag in speculative buying
and send prices through
the roof.
Points to watch
*Wheat quality is an
emerging issue - On the face
if it, recent official reports
out of Canada have been
encouraging. Government
officials have found more stocks at July 31
than expected, pointing to either an under-
rated 2009 crop or over-rated demand.
The crop forecast has also drifted up to
about 22.5m from 20.5m tonnes. However,
a late-planted crop is now facing threats from
incessant rains and the first hard frosts of
the season which could have a big impact
on quality. Canadian hard spring wheat for
export has recently risen to about $325/
required to gamble on commodity markets
are almost pocket money to some of these
operators, compared with the trillions of
dollars funds invest in equity, money markets
and other financial instruments. This gives
them immense power to exaggerate price
movements and to sometimes create self-
fuelling trends.
In mid-September, the key factor
influencing current and forward world wheat
prices remained whether the Russians could
put their crop and get it es tablished before
the usually harsh winter set in. A s we went
to press, much of the Black Sea region,
including the Ukraine (often the world’s sixth
largest wheat exporter) was still waiting for
normalizing rains with perhaps only 30/40%of crops in the ground. The prospect of two
back-to-back crop problems in the former
Soviet region would certainly be bullish for
world prices. This year’s decline of almost
30m tonnes in regional wheat output was
cushioned by larger than usual carryover
stocks from the previous year which – even
with a halt to exports – will likely fall by
a third now, possibly by as much as a half,
leaving no leeway next year. It is not only
wheat that has suffered. FSU coarse grain is
also estimated to have dropped from 68m
to 51m tonnes, largely in the barley sector,
forcing a 10m tonne cut in consumption and
greater demand for any available feedwheat.
Even if the Russians do finally get their
autumn sowings in with a chance, there
Gain&fd illinG hnlGy38 | September - ctober 2010
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illustrated by unusually low levels on the river
Amazon, disrupting vessel traffic to export
ports. South American production now
accounts for over half the world’s soya output .
However, the expected decline in acreage
looks more questionable with some origin
consultants still of the opinion that plantings
will be stable or higher while soyabean prices
stay over $10 on the Chicago market.
Big supplies, and the prospect of still high
world soyabean/oilseed ending stocks at the
end of this season, have kept soyabean prices
remarkably stable in recent months while
soyameal, in dollar terms has also flucuated
in a fairly narrow band (if rising in the third
quarter of 2010 on the European market
during to the ongoing weakness of the euro).
However, if maize and wheat prices continue
to firm, soyabean prices could soon be forced
to join the fray, partly due to the extra demand
flowing in from tight cereal markets but more
because of the need to defend soya’s share of
the US crop acreage next spring. Maize alone
is said to nee an additional 3m to 4m acres
next spring to get supply back into line with
demand. Soya could also be under threat in
the southern States from cotton, trading at
its highest level in decades on tight supplies.
Still, as current predictions stand, bigger
cottonseed and groundnut crops could still
be enough this season to keep world oilseed
production at simiular levels if not larger
than last year’s 440m tonnes. That would be
enough to supply an expected 16/17m tonne
rise in crush without even drawing on those
large carryover stocks.
Globally oilseed meal demand is also
expected to increase by 5% or 12m tonnes
in the coming season, about half of which
will take place in China, through increased
soya meal consumption. Most of that, in turn
will be supplied by imported soyabeans from
the Americas, making a good soya crop vital
next year.
Demand for maize could be boosted further
by a still-tightening supply of alternative coarse/
feed grains. World barley output is now seen at
its lowest level in decades, at 126m tonnes, 2m
less than last month, 24m below last year and
15m below estimated
consumption needs.
In recent years barley
has supplied about 13%
of world feed grain
consumption compared
with wheat’s 15% and
64% for maize.
Oi lmea l s – no
shortage but a firm
undertow from cereals
THE good news in the feed sector is an
abundance of soyabeans, normally accounting
for 55/60% of world oilseeds and well over
two third of oilmeal supply. With recent
upward revisions for Brazi,
the world crop in 2009/10
is now estimated to have
reached a new record
260m tonnes – 48m more
than in 2008/ 9. World
oilseed production has also
been boosted by biggerrapeseed and palm kernel
crop supplies, enabling total
oilmeal production to jump
from 229m to 242m tonnes
while building up a mammoth
world carryover stocks of oilseeds totalling
some 74m tonnes (about 16m more than
last year).
Easy supplies and a stellar outlook for the
next US crop, just starting harvest, may not
be enough to keep oilseed supplies growing
in 2010/11 if,
as USDA and
other observers
think, soyabean
production
backtracks next
spring in Brazil
and Argentina
amid slightly lower
sowings and an
expected turn to
less favourable dry
weather during an
El Nino phase. Certainly the Brazilian planting
season, which starts next month, is making
traders uneasy with one leading soya state,
Mato Grosso, curren t experiencing its worst
drought in 40 years. The lack of water is starkly
demand outpaced production. Yet at this
stage, the USDA actually sees China building
its reserve stocks from 53 to 60m tonnes.
This would put China in charge of 44% of the
world stock compared with between 25%
and 33% normally and in China’s controlled
system that would effectively keep them out
of the world market.
Demand in the USA is actually lower than
last year’s as much slower growth in ethanol
use (just 4m versus the previous year’s 21m
tonnes) is outweighed by a 6m tonne slump
in the feed sector.
Still, even under this scenario, the US market
will have to draw on stocks to meet a 7.3m
tonne shortfall against total domestic and
export needs, reducing seasonal ending stocksto 28.4m tonnes, their lowest since 2003/04 and
equal to just four weeks supply. Some analys ts
think that balance could be even tighter if
disappointing yields from early harvests prove
typical, potentially propelling the US price to as
much as $6/bu (about $236/tonne).
The EU is expected to produce just under
55m tonnes – about 2m less than last year
and to consume 59.5m. That will be managed
partly by cutting down exports and partly
by importing as much as 5m compared with
last year’s 2.5m tonnes. Clearly the import
cost will be far higher than last season with
US export prices recently running about
25% higher on the fob market than at this
time last year.
Gain&fd illinG hnlGy40 | September - ctober 2010
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