Externalities, Global WarmingEffects

Y. MatsukiAugust 14, 2009, at 15:00 a.m.Presented at the NTUU “KPI”

Basic approaches for estimating theglobal climate change impacts are?

Estimate the CO2 and othergreenhouse gas emissionsUse these estimates in a globalclimate model to estimate the globaltemperature riseUse the temperature rise in an effects(impacts) model to estimate thepossible impacts and damage

Potential impacts of global warming

Response of vegetationIncreases in crops and forest growthassociated with enhancedatmospheric CO2 concentrationResponse of agricultureResponse of managed forest andgrasslandsWater resources

Potential impacts of global warming

Marine and coastal environmentsNatural landscapes and ecosystemsHuman healthIndustry and energyCoastal settlements and structuresImportance of adaptation

Response in vegetation

Is quantitative response function fortemperature well established?No.Are potential CO2-temperatureinteractions in plant responseunderstood?No, even more poorly understood.One more important issue?Water, moisture

Increases in crops and forestgrowth associated with enhancedatmospheric CO2 concentration

What is it?Beneficial effect of the globalwarming.Fertilizer effect – mitigate the impact- Positive effect on agricultureIndirect effect – weed, pest, insectOthers – nitrogen and other nutrients

Response of agriculture

Positive impactDrought, floodHigh interest rates, low price,changing consumer preferenceAdaptation?Out put in 2030 – Cline – 10% lossKane 13,000 million USD,Adam 34,000 million USD

Response of managed forest andgrasslands

Do trees more ability to adapt?No. Trees have long lifetime, so lessadaptable then agricultural crops.Young trees may be.But middle aged trees are problem.How the forests in future look?Different. – Musselman and Fox

Response of water resources

Regional change in precipitationImpacts on surface/ground waterAre these easy to quantify?No.Adaptive project – what are they?Dams, canalsEngineered improvement in efficiencyof crops, tech. innovation in industry.

Response of marine and coastalenvironment

Are they adaptive?No, least adaptive options exist.Nature is slower in adapting than human.What are the adaptive measure of Sea levelrise?Dykes and sea wallsHowever, ecological and economic impactsIs sea level rise fast?Rather slow. --- general view

Response of natural landscapes andecosystems

Are successful adaptation likely forthem?No. Less likely.BecauseTime scale of global climate change israpid then the nature’sIsolation of natural ecosystem byagricultural and urban land.

Response to human health

Remarkably adaptable?Change distribution of disease, andindirect health impacts.Industrialized countries - adaptablePoorer countries

Economic valuation of impacts ofglobal climate change

Estimates of economic damages byNordhaus and ClineIllustrative estimates of damagesSummary of estimates from severalstudiesUncertainty in estimates

Estimate of economic damages byNordhaus and Cline

Cline – only market effectDoubling CO2, 2.5°C temperature riseWithout aggressive policy, additional 7.5°Cabove 2.5°C, doubling CO2 in 300 years.Non linear damage function from 10°C back to2.5°C warming.

Nordhaus – with non-market effectSummary is in the next Tale XXVI.

Reilly and Richards point out:Cline and Nordhaus point to a loss of World GDPabout 1%

Illustrative estimates of damages

Reilly and RichardsGlobal warming potential index

On agricultural impacts estimated byKaneFertilization benefits

Summary of estimates from severalstudies

Fankhauser --- the best?240,000 deaths annually from all globalwarming impactsValue of statistical life = 0.1 million USD

Hohmeyer and GartnerLess moisture in soil lower theagriculture45 million deaths per year fromstarvation aloneValue of statistical life = 1 million USD

Uncertainty in estimates

Non-market impactsSensitivity of damage estimates todifferent assumption

Time paths of emissions

Improve understanding on economicdamages.