Global market review of malt whisky – forecasts to … market review of malt whisky – forecasts...

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Global market review of malt whisky – forecasts to 2015 2011 edition

In this report sample you’ll find an overview of the report, a full table of

contents and list of data tables and figures, plus one sample page of each

chapter.

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Author: IWSR editor-in-chief Alexander T Smith

Date published: February 2011

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Overview

Total malt Scotch sales fell by 4.8% in 2009 to 6.1m nine-litre cases, as the global recession took hold. This drop reversed the prior five-year performance of 2% CAGR growth.

The impact of the recession was most pronounced in the more developed Western markets. The recession was characterised by a shift from on- to off-premise consumption. Although the malt category isn’t as on-trade developed and focused as other categories, the fact that the on-trade was down did have some impact on volumes. Destocking was also a factor in the first half of 2009. The important travel retail channel, the third-largest malt market, was also hard hit as global travel declined, with the business traveller segment being particularly hard hit.

Ian Macleod Distillers' managing director Leonard Russell believes the economic problems have led to polarisation within the market. “As a company, we have benefited from polarisation of consumer demand whereby affordable luxury whisk(e)y at the top end has seen some growth. A general trading down from standard brands to more competitively priced Scotch whiskies and own-labels has been prevalent.”

Nevertheless, the long-term outlook is very positive. This report forecasts that total malt sales will rise by 14.7% between 2009 and 2015 to reach 7m cases.

This latest report from just-drinks/IWSR provides a complete market analysis of the global malt whisky sector, offering an expert review off the markets, brands, categories and companies.

Latest consumption volume data includes actual 2009 volumes, with all data tables trending from 1999 to 2009/2015. Coverage includes the top ten companies' and brands' volumes in each major market and region, and overall volumes globally and by region and major market.

In-depth interviews with the following major players provide unique and candid opinion that enhances the analysis:

• Beam Global Spirits & Wine Scotch brand director

• Bushmills’ global brand director

• Campari CEO

• Chivas Brothers' brand director for malts

• Chivas Brothers' chairman and CEO

• Chivas Brothers' marketing director

• Cooley Distillery sales and marketing director

• Dewars' global brand director

• Diageo’s global head of Whisk(e)y, Gins and Reserve brands

• Diageo's Scotch Knowledge and Heritage director



• Duty Free Americas liquor purchasing manager

• Edrington director of malts

• Glenglassaugh managing director

• Ian Macleod director Americas, Africa and Europe

• Ian Macleod Distillers’ managing director

• Morrison Bowmore CEO

• Suntory marketing director, whisky

• The Nuance Group Europe buying and merchandising director

• Whyte & Mackay global sales and marketing director

• William Grant & Sons' global marketing director

The report looks at the recent performance of the malt whisky sector, then discusses the scope of the market, analysing the following key trends and topics:

• Market drivers

• Room for growth?

• Industry structure

• Role of innovation

• The move into super luxury

• The comparison of young versus mature markets

• Future of blended malts

• Age statements

• Inventory situation

• Future competition

The report provides detailed analysis of the major markets' recent performance including coverage of:

• United States

• United Kingdom

• Germany

• Switzerland

• The Netherlands

• Russia

• Spain

• France

• Taiwan

• China

• Japan



• South Korea

• India

• South Africa

• Travel retail

A couple of appendices round off the coverage looking at new regulations and major production moves in the industry. Market data is provided for the following brands:

• Aberlour

• Ballantines

• Balvenie

• Bowmore

• Bruichladdich

• Caol Ila

• Cardhu

• Classic Malts

• Dalmore

• Famous Grouse

• Glen Deveron

• Glen Grant

• Glen Moray

• Glen Turner

• Glenfarclas

• Glenfiddich

• Glenmorangie

• Glenrothes

• Heritage Scotch

• Highland Park

• Isle of Jura

• Johnnie Walker

• Knockando

• Laphroaig

• Loch Lomond

• McClellands

• Prime Blue Scotch

• Spey

• Speyburn

• Strathisla



• The Glenlivet

• The Macallan

• The Singleton

• Tomatin

Use this report to:

• understand the size and scope of the market

• know what's driving the trends within the sector

• hear what the leading brands' latest thinking is

• see where the future lies for the sector



Table of contents

Chapter 1 Recent performance Chapter 2 Scope of the market Market drivers

Headroom for growth

Industry structure

Role of innovation

Move into super luxury

Horses for courses

Future of blended malts

Age statements

Vox pops

Inventory situation

Future competition

Chapter 3 North America market performance

United States

Rest of Americas

Canada

Chapter 4 Europe market performance

United Kingdom

Germany

Italy

Switzerland

The Netherlands

Russia

Spain

France

Chapter 5 Asia market performance

Taiwan

China



Japan

South Korea

India

Other markets: South Africa

Chapter 6 Travel retail market performance

Appendix 1 New regulations

Appendix 2 Major production moves



List of tables

Table 1: Global malt scotch consumption, 1999-2015 ('000s nine-litre cases)

and 2009 value (US$'000s)

Table 2: Top ten countries by malt scotch consumption, 1999-2015 ('000s

nine-litre cases) and 2009 value (US$'000s)

Table 3: Top ten fastest growth markets by malt scotch consumption, 1999-

2015 ('000s nine-litre cases) and 2009 value (US$'000s)

Table 4: Share of malt Scotch on total Scotch in each market

Table 5: Malt scotch consumption by region, 1999-2015 ('000s nine-litre

cases) and 2009 value (US$'000s)

Table 6: Global top ten companies by malt scotch consumption, 1999-2009

('000s nine-litre cases) and 2009 value (US$'000s)

Table 7: Global top ten brands by malt scotch consumption, 1999-2009 ('000s


Table 8: 2008 and 2009 Scotch malt whisky stock by age

Table 9: Top ten companies in North America malt scotch consumption, 1999-

2009 ('000s ninelitre cases) and 2009 value (US$'000s)

Table 10: Top ten brands in North America malt scotch consumption, 1999-


Table 11: Top ten companies in United States malt scotch consumption, 1999-


Table 12: Top ten brands in United States malt scotch consumption, 1999-


Table 13: Top ten companies in Rest of America malt scotch consumption,

1999-2009 ('000s ninelitre cases) and 2009 value (US$'000s)

Table 14: Top ten brands in Rest of Americas malt scotch consumption, 1999-


Table 15: Top ten companies in Canada malt scotch consumption, 1999-2009


Table 16: Top ten brands in Canada malt scotch consumption, 1999-2009


Table 17: Top ten companies in Europe malt scotch consumption, 1999-2009


Table 18: Top ten brands in Europe malt scotch consumption, 1999-2009




Table 19: Top ten companies in UK malt scotch consumption, 1999-2009


Table 20: Top ten brands in UK malt scotch consumption, 1999-2009 ('000s


Table 21: Top ten companies in Germany malt scotch consumption, 1999-


Table 22: Top ten brands in Germany malt scotch consumption, 1999-2009


Table 23: Top ten companies in Italy malt scotch consumption, 1999-2009


Table 24: Top ten brands in Italy malt scotch consumption, 1999-2009 ('000s


Table 25: Top ten companies in CIS malt scotch consumption, 1999-2009


Table 25: Top ten companies in CIS malt scotch consumption, 1999-2009


Table 26: Top ten brands in CIS malt scotch consumption, 1999-2009 ('000s


Table 27: Top ten companies in Spain malt scotch consumption, 1999-2009


Table 28: Top ten brands in Spain malt scotch consumption, 1999-2009 ('000s


Table 29: Top ten companies in France malt scotch consumption, 1999-2009


Table 30: Top ten brands in France malt scotch consumption, 1999-2009




Chapter 1 Recent performance

Total malt Scotch sales fell by xxx% in 2009 to xxxm nine-litre cases,

according to The IWSR, as the global recession took a toll. This is a reversal of

the five-year CAGR pattern of x% growth.

Table 1: Global malt scotch consumption, 1999-2015 ('000s nine-litre cases) and 2009 value (US$'000s)

Value 000's (US$) Volume 000's nine-litre cases

2009 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Global total

Volume 000's nine-litre cases

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 F2010 F2011

Global total

Volume 000's nine-litre cases Percentage change

F2012 F2013 F2014 F2015 2008-2009 2009-2015

Global total

CAGR

1999-2009 2004-2009

Global total

Source: The IWSR

The impact of the recession was most pronounced in the more developed

Western markets. The recession was characterised by a shift from on- to off-

premise consumption. Although the malt category isn’t as on-trade developed

and focused as other categories, the fact that the on-trade was down did have

some impact on volumes. Destocking was also a factor in the first half of 2009.

The important travel retail channel, the third-largest malt market, was also hard

hit as global travel declined. The important business traveller segment was

particularly hard hit.



Chapter 2 Scope of the market

Europe and North America combined account for a xxxx% share of total

category volume. Europe has seen its share of the global market decline over

the past ten years, falling from xxxx% in 1999 to xxxx% in 2009. Within

Europe, North-west Europe (domestic) is the single largest consuming sub-

region, despite actually declining by xxxxxx cases between 2004 and 2009 to

reach xxxxm cases. Southern Europe also lost xxxxxxx cases over the same

period, due chiefly to malt’s sales in Italy.

Table 4: Share of malt Scotch on total Scotch in each market

Country Vol2004 Vol2009

Total

Taiwan

Italy

Canada

Sweden

Japan

Germany

Duty Free

United States

Netherlands

United Kingdom

Belgium and Luxembourg

France

India

China

Australia

Other Africa

Spain

Russia

Poland

South Africa

Greece

South Korea



Chapter 3 North America market performance Table 9: Top ten companies in North America malt scotch consumption, 1999-2009 ('000s



2009 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Pernod Ricard

Wm Grants

Edrington Group

Diageo

Suntory

LVMH

Beam Global

Thai Beverage

U. B. India

Berry Brothers

Others


2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Pernod Ricard

Wm Grants

Edrington Group

Diageo

Suntory

LVMH

Beam Global

Thai Beverage

U. B. India

Berry Brothers

Others



Chapter 4 Europe market performance

Table 17: Top ten companies in Europe malt scotch consumption, 1999-2009 ('000s nine-litre cases) and 2009 value (US$'000s)


2009 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Diageo

Wm Grants

Pernod Ricard

Campari

Edrington Group

LVMH

La Martiniquaise

Beam Global

Suntory

U. B. India

Others


2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Diageo

Wm Grants

Pernod Ricard

Campari

Edrington Group

LVMH

La Martiniquaise

Beam Global

Suntory

U. B. India

Others



Chapter 5 Asia market performance

Table 31: Top ten companies in Asia malt scotch consumption, 1999-2009 ('000s nine-litre cases) and 2009 value (US$'000s)


2009 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Edrington Group

Wm Grants

Diageo

Pernod Ricard

Suntory

LVMH

Harvie's of Edinburgh

Beam Global

Takara Shuzo

Bacardi - Martini

Others


2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Edrington Group

Wm Grants

Diageo

Pernod Ricard

Suntory

LVMH

Harvie's of Edinburgh

Beam Global

Takara Shuzo

Bacardi - Martini

Others



Chapter 6 Travel retail market performance Table 39: Top ten companies in Duty Free malt scotch consumption, 1999-2009 ('000s nine-

litre cases) and 2009 value (US$'000s)


2009 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Wm Grants

Diageo

Edrington Group

Pernod Ricard

Suntory

LVMH

Beam Global

U. B. India

Campari

J & G Grant

Others


2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Wm Grants

Diageo

Edrington Group

Pernod Ricard

Suntory

LVMH

Beam Global

U. B. India

Campari

J & G Grant

Others


Global market review of malt whisky – forecasts to … market review of malt whisky – forecasts...

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