GLOBAL FX STRATEGY | FX QUICK NOTES 120 40 High Canada ... · Retail Traffic • ShopperTrak and...

1

GLOBAL FX STRATEGY | FX QUICK NOTES Tuesday September 15, 2020

High-Frequency Dashboard: Tracking the Post-Lockdown Recovery (September 15, 2020)

Shaun Osborne

Chief FX Strategist

461.945.4538

[email protected]

Follow us on Twitter @SCOTIABANKFX

-80

-40

0

40

80

120

03/20 04/20 05/20 06/20 07/20 08/20 09/20

Retail & recreation Grocery & pharmacyParks Transit stationsWorkplaces Residential

Source: Google, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.

Canada Google Community Mobility % change from baseline, 7-dma

(Last: Sep 11)

-80

-40

0

40

80

120

03/20 04/20 05/20 06/20 07/20 08/20 09/20



US Google Community Mobility% change from baseline, 7-dma

(Last: Sep 11)

Google Community Mobility

• Daily Google data tracking movement trends points to slowing gains in economic activity which in part reflects seasonal patterns (summer

holidays)—see temporary decline in workplace activity in Germany—but may also be due to the re-imposition of some lockdown measures in

certain regions. While the end of strict quarantine periods led to an initial, strong, rebound in activity the coming quarters will see growth returning

to a smoother trajectory, with economic output unlikely to reach its pre-coronavirus level before late-2021 given the economic impact and job

losses resulting from the shutdowns and their spillovers. Retail, transit, and workplaces mobility in the US has been flat since mid– to late-June.

-80

-40

0

40

80

120

03/20 04/20 05/20 06/20 07/20 08/20 09/20



UK Google Community Mobility% change from baseline, 7-dma

(Last: Sep 11)

-80

-40

0

40

80

120

03/20 04/20 05/20 06/20 07/20 08/20 09/20



Germany Google Community Mobility% change from baseline, 7-dma

(Last: Sep 11)

-80

-40

0

40

80

120

03/20 04/20 05/20 06/20 07/20 08/20 09/20



Japan Google Community Mobility% change from baseline, 7-dma

(Last: Sep 11)

-80

-40

0

40

80

120

03/20 04/20 05/20 06/20 07/20 08/20 09/20



Mexico Google Community Mobility% change from baseline, 7-dma

(Last: Sep 11)

Juan Manuel Herrera

FX Strategist

416.866.6781

[email protected]

-80

-70

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

03/20 04/20 05/20 06/20 07/20 08/20 09/20

US GermanyUK JapanMexico Canada


Google Community Mobility: Workplaces

% change from baseline, 7-dma(Last: Sep 11) -100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

03/20 04/20 05/20 06/20 07/20 08/20 09/20



Google Community Mobility: Retail

% change from baseline, 7-dma(Last: Sep 11)

-80

-70

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

03/20 04/20 05/20 06/20 07/20 08/20 09/20



Google Community Mobility: Transit Stns.

% change from baseline, 7-dma(Last: Sep 11)

https://twitter.com/Scotiabankfx

2


0

20

40

60

80

100

03/20 05/20 07/20 09/20


Canada and US:Topic "Unemployment Benefits"

respective peak = 100(Last: Sep 12)

Canada 7-day ma

US7-day ma

0

20

40

60

80

100

03/20 05/20 07/20 09/20


Canada and US:Search Term "New Car"


Canada7-day ma

US7-day ma

0

20

40

60

80

100

03/20 05/20 07/20 09/20


Canada and US:Search Term "Rent Relief"


Canada7-day ma

US7-day ma

20

40

60

80

100

03/20 05/20 07/20 09/20


Canada and US:Search Term "Realtor"


Canada7-day ma

US7-day ma

Google Search Trends

• Google Trends data shows a marked decline in search interest for unemployment benefits in Canada—including searches for the federal

government’s other income support programmes, CERB and CESB. In the US, searches for unemployment benefits have fallen to their lowest

point since March after jumping in early August; which may have reflected the end of supplementary unemployment benefits in late-July and a

new round of layoffs as some businesses closed with the rebound in cases in certain states. ‘Realtor’ search interest remains elevated amid ultra-

low borrowing rates in Canada and the US.

0

20

40

60

80

100

03/20 05/20 07/20 09/20


Canada and US:Topic "Bankruptcy"


Canada7-day ma

US7-day ma

0

20

40

60

80

100

03/20 05/20 07/20 09/20

UK FraIta MexUS Cda


Search Term "Covid Test"

respective peak = 100, 7-day ma (Last: Sep 12)

New York Fed Economic Index

• The NY Fed’s weekly economic index which

aggregates ten different daily and weekly

indices points to a year-on-year decline in

GDP of around –4.6% in early-September

equivalent to a 27% q/q increase for Q3

following a 32.9% q/q contraction in Q2.

-14

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

01/20 03/20 05/20 07/20 09/20

Source: FRBNY, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.

US FRBNY WeeklyEconomic Indexy/y % GDP grow th equivalent(Last: Sep 12)

-0.60

-0.40

-0.20

0.00

0.20

0.40

01/20 03/20 05/20 07/20 09/20Source: FRBSF, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.

San Fran Fed US Daily News Sentiment Index

index(Last: Sep 13)

San Fran Fed News Index

• The FRB of San Francisco’s Daily News

Sentiment Index, which tracks the implied

tone of news articles in 16 major US

newspapers, points to an improvement in

sentiment since its trough in late-March.

Indeed New Job Postings

• Online daily job postings on Indeed remain

practically unchanged relative to 2019 in the

US, but, for now, sit below last year’s trend in

Canada.

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

02/20 03/20 04/20 05/20 06/20 07/20 08/20

US (2019) US (2020)

Canada (2019) Canada (2020)

Source: Indeed, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.

Indeed New Job Postings

Feb 1 = 100, 7-dma (Last: Aug 28)

3


Scotiabank Canadian Merchant Data

• Scotiabank debit and credit card payments data compiled by our Economics, Customer Insights, and

Data & Analytics teams show that retail transactions across core merchant categories have rebounded

solidly in Canada from their April depths when compared to the same period last year. Total credit and

debit transactions now stand around 5-10% above their year-ago levels after falling by close to 30% y/

y in April; clothing, automotive, and health expenses are now rising year-on-year while restaurant

expenses are also recently increasing. While the lockdown measures, travel bans, and fear of

contagion have sharply hit the travel industry—with transaction volumes down about 50% y/y as of a

week ago—other sectors have seen an increase in sales as people spend more time at home (e.g.

computer software sales). For more details see here. For questions contact Nikita Perevalov

([email protected]).

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

01/20 03/20 05/20 07/20

Travel RestaurantsHardware AutomotiveClothing EntertainmentHealth Tota l

14-day ma of daily dollar volume oftransactions, y/y % (Last: Sep 4)

Sources: Scotiabank Economics, Customer Insights, Data & Analytics.

Scotiabank Canadian Transactions Data:Sales by Merchant Category

-50

0

50

100

150

200

01/20 03/20 05/20 07/20

Telecom Computer network

Computer software Grocer ies

Digital goods Tota l

14-day ma of daily dollar volume oftransactions, y/y % (Last: Sep 4)

Sources: Scotiabank Economics, Customer Insights, Data & Analytics.

Scotiabank Canadian Transactions Data:Sales by Merchant Category

Scotia FX Risk Appetite Index

• Our daily risk appetite index—a factor of

financial risk variables such as CDS spreads

and market volatility—is trading just around

its 40-day MA.

-75

-50

-25

0

25

50

01/20 03/20 05/20 07/20 09/20

MfgFinanceProf/Biz svcsEduc/HealthLeisure/HospTotal

Source: Chetty, Friedman, Hendren, Stepner (2020), Opportunity Insights, Burning Glass,

Scotiabank FICC Strategy.

US Job Postings by Industry

% change from Jan 4-31 baseline, 7-dma (Last: Sep 11)

Affinity Solutions US Card Spending Data

• Affinity Solutions debit and credit card payments data show that retail sales in the US remain

around 5-10% off their baseline in early-2020 with grocery purchases remaining elevated as

individuals spend more time at home while spending on recreation and transportation remains

quite depressed at ~ 50% lower than baseline, while accommodation and food spending is about

25% lower. Spending on general merch. & apparel has rebounded to only ~5-10% below baseline.

The data show tentative signs that the stalling from June through most of August has ended.

Burning Glass US Jobs Postings

• Weekly Burning Glass data show that US job

postings were down by 21% y/y, compared

to their pandemic trough of –39% in late-

April. Openings in the leisure and hospitality

sector appear to have been severely

impacted by the re-imposition of lockdown

measures in certain states with steep

increases in COVID-19 cases.

-3.00

-2.50

-2.00

-1.50

-1.00

-0.50

0.00

0.50

1.00

10/19 12/19 02/20 04/20 06/20 08/20

Source: Bloomberg, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.

Scotiabank FX Strategy Risk Appetite Index

index, 2008-present avg. = 0(Last: Sep 15)

100DMA

Risk appetite index

200DMA

40DMA

-50

-25

0

25

01/20 03/20 05/20 07/20

TopMiddleBottom QuartileAll

Source: Chetty, Friedman, Hendren, Stepner (2020), Opportunity Insights, Aff inity Solutions,


US Credit/Debit Card Spending by ZIP Code Median Income Quartile% change from Jan 4-31 baseline, 7-dma (Last: Aug 30)

-100

-75

-50

-25

0

25

50

75

100

125

01/20 03/20 05/20 07/20

HealthAcc/FoodGroceriesTrans/WHArts/Ent/RecGeneral/ApparelAll

Source: Chetty, Friedman, Hendren, Stepner (2020), Opportunity Insights, Aff inity Solutions,


US Credit/Debit Card Spending by Sector

% change from Jan 4-31 baseline, 7-dma (Last: Aug 30)

https://www.scotiabank.com/ca/en/about/economics/economics-publications/post.other-publications.insights-views.tracking-the-canadian-economy-through-covid-19-insights-from-customer-transactions--august-27--2020-.html

mailto:[email protected]

4


30

40

50

60

70

80

01/20 04/20 07/20 10/20

20172018201920202017-19 avg

Source: RTE, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.

France Energy Demand

000 mw h 5pm, 14-dma(Last: Sep 14)

latest: 97% of avg

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

01/20 04/20 07/20 10/20

Thousands

20172018201920202017-19 avg

Source: EIA, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.

US Midwest Energy Demand


latest: 95% of avg

22

27

32

37

42

47

52

01/20 03/20 05/20 07/20 09/20 11/20

20172018201920202017-19 avg

Source: TEPCO, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.

Japan Energy Demand


latest = 110% of avg

10

12

14

16

18

20

01/20 04/20 07/20 10/20

20172018201920202017-19 avg

Source: SMARD, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.

Germany Energy Demand


latest = 96% of avg.

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

01/20 04/20 07/20 10/20

20172018201920202017-19 avg

Source: IESO, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.

Ontario Energy Demand


latest: 98% of avg

25

30

35

40

45

01/20 04/20 07/20 10/20

2018

2019

2020

2018-19 avg

Source: Cenace, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.

Mexico Energy Demand

000 mw h, daily max

(Last: Sep 13)

latest: 94% of avg

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

01/20 04/20 07/20 10/20

2018

2019

2020

2018-19 avg

Source: ONS, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.

Brazil Energy Demand

000 mw h, daily max (Last: Sep 13)

latest: 104% of avg

0

20

40

60

80

100

02/20 03/20 04/20 05/20 06/20 07/20 08/20 09/20

China GermanyUK JapanMexico New ZealandUS Canada

Source: Hale, Webster, Petherick, Phillips, and Kira (2020). Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker, Blavatnik School of Government , Scotiabank FICC Strategy.

Incorporates public information on 17 indicators of government responses.

Oxford Lockdown Stringency Index

100 = strictest response Lockdown Stringency Index

• Oxford University's lockdown stringency index—a useful

guideline to track containment measures around the

globe—shows the impact of the new containment measures

imposed in New Zealand amid a surge in cases in the

Auckland area after the country reached 102 days without

community transmission. Germany’s restrictions remain

relatively loose compared to its peers—despite a recent

uptick in contagions—which will likely result in an

outperformance of the country's economy within the euro-

bloc.

Energy Demand

• Hourly energy demand data shows that most economies are back to seasonal demand trends

with above-average temperatures possibly leading to excess energy usage amid increased air

conditioning usage.

• In the case of Mexico however, energy demand remains around 5% below its 2018-19 avg.

which may reflect a continued idling of economic activity, unlike ‘normal’ demand levels in

Brazil, which is expected to lead the major Latin American economies in economic

performance this year.

5


-100

-75

-50

-25

0

25

50

01/20 03/20 05/20 07/20 09/20

US m. vehicles & eq.US ex mveCanada m. vehicles & eq.Canada ex mve

Source: CN, AAR, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.

Canada and US Rail Merchandise Shipments

y/y % change in carloads(Last: Sep 5)

Rail Shipments

• Weekly rail shipments data shows that

demand for motor vehicles and equipment in

the US is again above year-ago levels

although this is likely in trade with Mexico

rather than with Canada, where the latter’s

data still shows a contraction in shipments of

these goods.

US Steel Production

• Weekly US steel production data suggests

that activity in the manufacturing and

construction sectors has not yet significantly

improved for steel mills to notably ramp up

production, which stands at about 80% of

year-ago output compared to 60% in early

May.

Shanghai Steel Inventories

• Chinese industrial output appears to have

recovered quickly, but then stalled, as steel

inventory levels in the country are depleted

from record-highs as reflected by weekly

Shanghai storage data for both traders and

steel mills. Steel mill inventories are closer to

‘normal’ levels but show no signs of declining

of late.

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep

Source: Antaike, Mysteel, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.

Shanghai Steel Inventories

mn tonnes(Last: Sep 11)

2020traders

(LHS)

2019traders

(LHS)

mn tonnes(Last: Sep 11)

2020steel mills

(RHS)

2019steel mills

(RHS)1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep

Source: AISI, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.

US Steel Production

mn short tonnes(Last: Sep 11)

2020(Latest = 80% of 2019)

2019

Germany Truck Mileage Index

• Daily truck mileage data for Germany—a

close indicator of industrial production—

shows a sharp rebound in economic activity

in Europe’s largest economy. As of Sep 7,

miles traveled by trucks in Germany were

around their year-ago level. This series and

other data again point to the German

economy recovering at a fast pace as

lockdown measures are lifted.

Retail Traffic

• ShopperTrak and Prodco retail foot traffic

data show that retail activity has picked up

quickly in France and Germany to leapfrog

the decline in Hong Kong—which reverted

shutdowns recently owing to rising

contagions. Retail traffic in the US seems to

be picking up speed in recent days.

-120

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

01/20 03/20 05/20 07/20 09/20

UK France

Germany Hong Kong

US

Source: Shopper Trak, Prodco Analytics,Scotiabank FICC Strategy.

Retail Foot Traffic

y/y % change(Last: w eek of Aug 31)

-16

-12

-8

-4

0

4

8

10/19 12/19 02/20 04/20 06/20 08/20

Source: Destatis, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.

Germany Truck Mileage Index

y/y % change(Last: Sep 7)

-10.0

-7.5

-5.0

-2.5

0.0

2.5

5.0

10/19 12/19 02/20 04/20 06/20 08/20

Source: Bundesbank, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.

Bundesbank Weekly Activity Index

3m/3m % implied change in real GDP(Last: Sep 13)

Bundesbank Activity Index

• The Bundesbank’s high-frequency economic

activity index estimates that the German

economy is expanding by 4.3% on a 3m/3m

basis, as of August 30, up from –6.3%

roughly three months ago, reflecting the

increase in activity in the country’s industrial

and services sectors. Note that Germany’s

economy contracted by –9.7% in Q2,

compared to the Bundesbank WEI estimate

of -4.3% at end-June.

6


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

01/20 03/20 05/20 07/20 09/20

Source: Flight Radar, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.

Flight Radar TrackedCommercial Flights Globally

000s per day(Last: Sep 14)

7DMA(Latest = 63% of Jan 31)

TSA Checkpoint Throughput

• Daily US TSA shows that traffic through US

airports remains heavily subdued at about a

third when compared to 2019. The recent

rise in cases in the country may explain the

plateauing of US travel since early-June. As

domestic and international restrictions are

lifted we should see a more important pick-

up in travel activity.

Flight Radar Commercial Flights

• Daily flights data from Flight Radar points to

an unsurprising massive decline in air travel

(about 40% lower compared to early-2020)

owing to travel bans and other strict

restrictions on domestic and international

travel. As some countries eradicate (or

sharply limit the spread of the virus) some

travel will resume between ‘COVID-free’

nations.

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

02/20 04/20 06/20 08/20Source: TSA, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.

TSA Checkpoint Travelers

000s passengers(Last: Sep 14)

2020 7-dma(Latest = 32% of 2019)

2019 7-dma

OpenTable Restaurant Visits

• Daily OpenTable restaurant foot traffic data

points to a solid rebound in restaurant visits

in Germany and continued gains in Canada,

where the recent increase may reflect

caution around increasing contagions. In the

UK the end of the government’s “eat out to

help out” 50% discount scheme on Aug 31

has led to a decline in visits.

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

01/20 03/20 05/20 07/20

Driving

Walking

Transit

Baseline

Source: Apple, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.

Canada Apple Mobility Trends

routing requests, 7-dma(Last: Sep 13)

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

01/20 03/20 05/20 07/20

Driving

Walking

Transit

Baseline


US Apple Mobility Trends


0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

01/20 03/20 05/20 07/20

Driving

Walking

Transit

Baseline


Germany Apple Mobility Trends


Apple Mobility Trends

• Daily Apple data tracking Apple Maps routing requests shows that driving and walking mobility in Canada, the US, and Germany now exceeds

their respective baseline levels of mid-January. However, only in Germany has there been a significant increase in transit usage that points to a

faster return to economic normality than in North America as lockdown measures are lifted; see Oxford U’s lockdown stringency index that shows

Germany’s restrictions are now significantly more relaxed than in most of its peers. The recent decline in German mobility may reflect a concern

over increasing cases.

-120

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

02/20 03/20 04/20 05/20 06/20 07/20 08/20

Germany Mexico

Australia UK

Canada US

Source: Opentable, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.

OpenTable Restaurant Visits

y/y% change (Last: Sep 14),7-day ma

7


Dallas Fed State Mobility and Engagement Index, 7-day ma (Last: Sep 5)

Source: Dallas Fed, Scotiabank FICC Strategy. First data point is Jan 9, Jan-Feb avg. = 0 (difference from baseline).

WA (-29)

OR (-25)

CA (-46)

ID (-16)

NV (-34)

UT (-21)

AZ (-38)

MT (-14)

WY (-5)

CO (-29)

NM (-31)

ND (-25)

SD (-17)

NE (-22)

KS (-29)

OK (-25)

TX (-44)

MN (-42)

IA (-26)

MO (-26)

AR (-25)

LA (-26)

WI (-35)

IL (-44)

KY (-32)

TN (-26)

MS (-23)

MI (-29)

IN (-21)

OH (-28)

WV (-20)

NC (-28)

AL (-27)

PA (-33)

VA (-38)

SC (-22)

GA (-28)

NY (-41)

NJ (-47)

MD (-52)

DC (-57)

FL (-35)

VT (-31)

MA (-41)

CT (-41)

DE (-38)

ME (-20)

NH (-34)

RI (-38)

HI (-66)

AK (-19)

ALL (-35)

8


New Confirmed COVID-19 Cases by US State and Canadian Province, 7-day ma (Last: Sep 14)

Source: Bloomberg, Scotiabank FICC Strategy. First data point is March 3.

WA

OR

CA

HI

ID

NV

UT

AZ

MT

CO

NM

ND

SD

NE

KS

OK

TX

MN

IA

MO

AR

LA

KY

TN

MS

OH PA

VA

SC

GA

MD

NJ

NY MA

VT

CT

DE

NH

ME

RIWY

WV

NC

AL

DC

MI

IN

IL

WI

FL

BC AB SK MB ON QC NB NS

NLPE

AK

9


Card Spending, Opportunity Insights Affinity Solutions, 7-day ma (Last: Aug 30)

Source: Opportunity Insights, Scotiabank FICC Strategy. First data point is Jan 24, Jan = 0 (% difference from baseline).

WA (-6.6)

OR (-9.3)

CA (-11.7)

ID (3.2)

NV (-10.8)

UT (-11.0)

AZ (-6.3)

MT (-11.8)

WY (-4.4)

CO (-9.2)

NM (-6.8)

ND (-7.6)

SD (-13.7)

NE (-5.7)

KS (-0.9)

OK (3.0)

TX (1.4)

MN (-5.1)

IA (-11.1)

MO (-1.9)

AR (0.3)

LA (-1.5)

WI (-6.6)

IL (-7.5)

KY (-0.3)

TN (-3.1)

MS (-1.2)

MI (2.8)

IN (7.2)

OH (-3.3)

WV (2.3)

NC (-10.6)

AL (2.4)

PA (2.8)

VA (-5.4)

SC (-0.2)

GA (-4.3)

NY (-7.1)

NJ (-7.3)

MD (-5.3)

DC (-17.4)

FL (-6.5)

VT (-4.8)

MA (-5.8)

CT (-10.2)

DE (-1.4)

ME (-5.1)

NH (-7.1)

RI (-9.4)

HI (2.9)

AK (-14.4)

ALL (-5.6)

10


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