Global dynamics of critical metals or · 2012. 5. 23. · many critical metals may currently have...

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Global dynamics of critical metals

or

What’s so special about critical metals?

Andrew Bloodworth

British Geological Survey

Hemerdon tungsten project


Structure

• How do critical metals

compare/ contrast with

other mineral

commodities?

• How might business

models for primary

resource development

evolve?

• A geological perspective

on access to critical metals

from secondary (recycled)

resources

Altered zoned allanite (up to 50% REE), NW Scotland


Mineral and metal commodity

groups

• Construction minerals

• Fossil fuels

• Industrial metals (Fe, Al, Cu, Pb,

Zn etc..)

• Precious metals (Au, Ag, PGMs)

• Industrial minerals (asbestos …

zeolite)

• ‘Critical metals’ (REEs, Sb, Te,

Re, Ge, Ga etc…)


Volume, value, variety

• Volumes produced low compared to industrial

metals

• Low aggregate value compared to industrial metals

and precious metals

• Wide variety of metals used in a range of

applications


Volume

• Leads to tendency production concentration of CM

1,224,000,000

36,900,00018,300,000

123,00062,300

429

1

10

100

1000

10000

100000

1000000

10000000

100000000

1000000000

10000000000

To

nn

es

Steel Aluminium Copper REOs Tungsten PGMs

Production of selected industrial and critical metals, 2009 (Source: BGS World Mineral Production)


Value

• Despite indicative prices, size of CM market is small

compared to that for precious and industrial metals

2009 Data from Ernst & Young

0,15

0,028

48900

575

30

600

0,01 0,1 1 10 100 1000 10000 100000

Iron ore

Bauxite

PGMs

Indium

Tungsten

Gallium

Indicative price ($/Kg)

345000

5628

11746

345

1795

47

1 10 100 1000 10000 100000 1000000

Iron ore

Bauxite

PGMs

Indium

Tungsten

Gallium

Indicative annual market size ($m)


Variety Industrial metals

Precious metals

EU critical metals

Additional metals/

metalloids in mobile devices


Other critical metal characteristics

• Difficult extractive metallurgy

• May be co-products

• Complex, diverse applications and markets

• Not usually traded openly


Commercial development?

• Many CM projects are currently owned by SMEs with no

existing source of revenue

• Funding requires proven project design and firm sales

contracts

• Operator must demonstrate ability to produce consistent

pilot plant output to precise customer specifications


How might business models

develop?

• With some exceptions, low level of

interest in CM from major mining

companies to date

– “[critical metal] markets still remain

small in comparison to other minerals

such as bauxite and iron ore. As a

result, they are yet to attract the full

attention of the mining community”

Ernst & Young, 2010

• Some developments may move toward

vertically-integrated model, with major

consumers investing directly in mines to

secure supply

• Analogous to current links between

fluorspar extraction and fluorochemical

manufacturers

Okorusu fluorspar mine, Namibia

(owned by Solvay Fluorine Industries)


Alternative business models

• Many CM developments will need to supply niche

products ‘engineered’ for niche markets

• Requires close relationship with customers and high

level of investment in process technology

• analogous to current paradigm for supply of

industrial minerals such as kaolin, silica or calcium

carbonate


Source: IMCOA

Inertia

• From discovery to mine to market can take

years – REO projects estimated between 7

and 20 years (Mount Weld was discovered in

1970).


Technological development

and uptake

• speed of technological

development + uptake +

supply inertia can lead to

short/ medium term CM

shortages

Source: IEA

//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/c/c5/PPTMooresLawai.jpg


A geological perspective on

access to secondary resources

• Access to secondary CM resources

controlled by anthropogenic

concentration/ dispersion processes

• Concentrated = accessible/ low cost

• Dispersed = inaccessible/ high cost

• Concentration/ dispersion processes

depend on technological, economic and

social factors and their interaction


Dispersion: low content/ high

impact per unit

• 2-3g platinum group metal (PGM) in average car

• Autocatalyst converts > 90% of hydrocarbons, carbon

monoxide and NOx + 30-40% particulates from internal

combustion engines to CO2, N2 and H2O


High volume consumption + low unit

content = major dispersion

• 1.6 billion mobile phones and 350

million PCs/ laptops manufactured

globally in 2010

Equates to:

• 189 000 tonnes Cu (<1% global production)

• 750 tonnes Ag (4% global production)

• 115 tonnes Au (4% global production)

• 42 tonnes Pd (19% global production)

• 17 800 tonnes Co (23% global production)


Sustainable, ‘circular’ economy

Manufacture

Use

End of life

Metal

production

Primary

resources

(mining)

Residues

Residues

Residues Recycling

Residues


Dispersion-concentration:

critical metals in mobile devices

Metal dispersed Metal

concentrated

Metal in use Metal dispersed

Earth’s crust Mine/ refinery Society

Extr

actio

n

Manufa

ctu

re

End o

f lif

e


Mobile devices as a polymetallic ore

body

• Although 95% of Cu

and precious metals

recovered, less than

50% of total metal

content captured

during smelting

• Most of CM content

is dispersed below

cut off grade and/ or

extractive metallurgy

too difficult

• Price of CM

determines cut off

grade

Li, Co Cu, Ta,

Pd, Au,

Al, Fe,

etc

W,

REEs

Si, Al,

Na, In Mg, Al

Au

C, H, Cr


Access to the ore body: current reality

of mobile device recycling

• Social barriers to ore body access (‘stored in drawer’)

• Technical barriers to concentrate recovery

• Cost barriers to recovery of metal inventory

• Good news for economic geologists, especially if

upward consumption of CM continues


Living in a

material world

• Relatively low production volumes and value mean that

many critical metals may currently have less

commercial appeal than industrial and precious metals

• Variety of output types and wide range of applications

gives critical metals some similarities with industrial

minerals

• Business models for CM supply are immature

• Inertia in development hard to overcome and shortages

may occur as a result of rapid technology change/

uptake

• Social, technical and economic factors severely

constrain access to secondary CM resources


Thank you

[email protected]

www.mineralsUK.com

Loch Loyal syenite

complex: An area of REE

mineralisation in NW

Scotland

mailto:[email protected]

http://www.mineralsuk.com/

Global dynamics of critical metals or · 2012. 5. 23. · many critical metals may currently have...

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