Global Corporate Platforms: Competitive or Obsolete for Tomorrow’s World?

7/28/2019 Global Corporate Platforms: Competitive or Obsolete for Tomorrows World?

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GlobalStrategy

GlobalChallenges

Executable

Solutions

Brazil 2020: What BraGlobal Corporate Platforms Competi

Copyright 2011 Exolus. All rights reserved.

zil will Look Like in the Future

ive or Obsolete for Tomorrows World?

France Houdard

Mana in [email protected]


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Preface: What Does the Worlds 5th L

W

Copyright 2011 Exolus. All rights reserved..

argest Country look Like from Space?

y?

1Source: NASA (United States National Aeronautics and Space Administration)


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. . .

2


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Framework: Structural Determinants

West Largely Uninhabitable

Manaus

Amazon Forest

Porto Aleg

Curiti

Worlds 5th Largest Country

Energy Independent, 45% Green


Worlds 3rd Largest Food Exporter

of Brazils Economic Geography

80% Population in East

ACities HighestPopulationandFDI

SCities MidHighPopulationandFDI

Fortaleza

Salvador

ec e

Sao Paulo

Belo Horizonte

Rio De Janeiro

re

ba

Highly Advanced Economy

Aircraf t, Automobiles, Petrochem

3

Agr ibusiness & Natural Resources


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Economy: Growth in Brazils Econom

IMF Projected Growth

Brazil GDP (P3.0 (USD,

2.5

2.0

USDtrillio

n

1.5

1.05 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3


19

9

19

9

19

9

19

9

19

9

20

0

20

0

20

0

20

0

Rate at 6% for Next 5

PP Adjusted)

Host the World Cup(2014)

trillion) Host Olympics(2016)

Global Financial Crisis

FForecas

t

I

Actua

l

2x

5 6 7 8 9 f f f f f f

4Source: World Bank, IMF

20

0

20

0

20

0

20

0

20

0

201

0

201

1

201

2

201

3

201

4

201

5


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Wealth: Brazil to have 2nd Highest G

Brazil GDP per Capita: USD 5,70

$10,000

$8,000

,

,

0

,


Brazil Russia

P per Capita among BRIC Countries

0 (2009) USD8,800 (2020)

2020

5Source: ERSUSDA

China India


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Income: Brazil Per Capita Disposable

Per Capita Disposable Income Gr

80,000

(USD pe

60,000

70,000

40,000

50,000

20 000

30,000

10,000


0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 20

Income in Tandem with China

wing at Average 6% Per Annum

Brazil

Russia

China

India

annum)

6Source: GS Global ECS Research

5 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050


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Resources: Rich in Mineral Resource

Worlds 3rd Largest Iron Producer

IRON

Worlds

3rd largest iron producer

4th largest iron reserves

MANGANESE

Worlds

6th largest manganese producer

3rd largest manganese reserves


Iron Ore, Manganese, Gold

3rd Largest Manganese Reserves

World Iron Production(13% share, 2009) China

us ra a

Brazil

India

Russia

Ukraine

South Africa

Iran

Canada

United States

Kazakhstan

Sweden

Venezuela

World Manganese Reserves(17 % share, 2009)

MexicoMauritaniaOther

Australia

raz

China

Gabon

India

17%

Mexico

South Africa

Ukraine

7Source: US Geological Survey

Othercountries


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Resources: Global Power in Natural

Worlds Second Fuel Ethanol Produ

ETHANOL

Worlds

2nd

fuel ethanol producer

First (#1) fuel ethanol exporter

TIMBER

Worlds

4th timber producer


esources, Energy Production

er 4th Largest Timber Producer

World Ethanol Production(33% share, 2009)

USA

Brazil

EU

China

Thailand

Canada

Colombia

India

Australia33 %

United StatesTop 10 Timber Producers(7.1% share, 2003)

Other

China

Brazil

Canada

Russia

Indonesia

Ethiopia

8Source: Renewable Fuels Association

7.1%ongo

Nigeria


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Resources: A Global Power in Agricul

Worlds Largest (#1) Green Coffee

SOYBEANS

Worlds

2nd soybeans producer

Largest (#1) soybeans exporter

COFFEE

Worlds

Leading (#1) coffee producer

Leading (#1) coffee exporter


ure Soybeans, Coffee, Beef

roducer 2nd Soybeans Producer

United States

Brazil

World Soybeans Production26% share, 2008

Argentina

China

India

Paraguay

Canada

Bolivia

Uruguay

Ukraine

Indonesia

26% RussiaOther

World Green Coffee Production36% share 2008

Brazil

Vietnam

36%

Colombia

Indonesia

Peru

Ethiopia

Mexico

India

Guatemala

Uganda

Honduras

9Source: Food and Agriculture Organization, International Coffee Organization

Costa Rica

Phillipines


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The Future 2020: 1 of 5 Countries Highest

> USD3 trillion GDP 100+ m

Over3 million sq km

Canada

razUS

IndiaChina

Australia

Germany

United Kin

Franc


Combined - GDP, Population, Resources

illion people > 3 million sq km

Over100 mil lion People

Indonesia

Pakistan

Bangladesh

Philippines

Nigeria

Mexico

Ethiopia

J apan

OverUS$3 trillion GDP (PPP)dom

e Italy

10


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, ,

11


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Corporate Burning Platforms: Market

Market Access/Revenue Growth

R&D

Knowledge

Engineering IT

F&A

Effi

Pr/A

C


es

s, Resources, Innovation

Global Structural Cost Reduction

Sales

Markets

ServiceHR

ProcureEfficiency/

Shared Services

ciency

ductionsembly

Resources/

Innovation

Knowledge

STMarkets /

Revenues

12

urces DRIVINGShareholder Value


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1. Market: Car Sales/Production Pro

Leading Position for Car

Brazil

700

ChinaIndia

(units per 1,000 people)

600

400

200

300

100


2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

y for Directional Market Sizing?

Penetration among BRIC

ar ene ra on n raz(units per 1,000 people)

250

200

150

100

50

13

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

Sources: GS Global ECS Research, Other


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1. Market: Projected to be Worlds 5t

USD47 billion Market

Pharmaceutical Marke(2000 2015

USA 150

J apan 58

USA 262

J apan 65

ermany

France 17

UK 11

ermany

France 21

UK 16

Italy 11

China 6.8

Brazil 6.7

Italy 15

China 13

Brazil 10

Canada 6.3

Spain 6.2

Canada 10

Spain 9.8

Copyright 2011 Exolus. All rights reserved.. Sources: IMS; GSK, Assessment of Opportuni

Largest Pharma Market by 2015

y 2015 5th in World

Size Country Ranking- USD billion)

USA 441

J apan 75

USA 524

China 103

ermany

France 39

China 34

apan

Germany 55

Brazil 47

UK 32

Italy 28

Brazil 24

France 44

UK 36

Italy 31

Canada 22

Spain 21

Russia 30

India 28

14y for Pharmaceutical Manufacturers in Emerging Markets J MCP; Monitor Analysis; Exolus


16/32

1. Market: High Spending Growth Re

Sales Growing

Retail Sal

900

700

800

DMillion

400

500

U

200

300

100

2003 2004 2005 2006


sumes after Global Crisis

at 28% CAGR

s Growth

2007 2008 2009 2010

15Source: EIU, Planet Retail


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2. Revenue/Costs: Where are Pareto-

Intersection of Natural Resources (W

Per Capita Annual Income(USD, PPP-Adjusted) Per Ca ita GDP

Ama

Roraima

> 14,500

10,000 14,500

7,500 - 10,000

5,500 -7,500

Para

AmazonasACities

SCities

0 5,500

Mato Grosso

RondoniaAcre

Mato Grosso

do Sul

Rio Gran

Para


Optimal Market/Resource Envelopes?

st) A/S Cities People (East)

/ A/S-Cit Overla

pa

Paraiba

Rio Grande do NorteCearaMaranhao

Bahia

au

TocantinsSergipe

Alagoas

ernam uco

Sao Paulo

Minas GeraisGoias

Espirito Santo

o e ane ro

de

na

Santa Catarina

16Source: Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics


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2. Production/Resources: Where are

Car Investment Proxy for

Brazil Automot

Manaus

OEMs

Suppliers

CuritibOEMs

SuppliersPorto Aleg


other Key Investment Nodes?

Investment Destinations?

ive Production

Fortaleza

OEMs

Salvador

ec e

Suppliers

Sao Paulo

Belo Horizonte

Rio De Janeiro

oianis

OEMs

a

re

Suppliers

17


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2. Production/Resources: Sao Paulo

Sao Paulo State (248,209 km sq) l a r g e

Sao Paulo State(248,209 km sq)

Sao Paulo State

Sao Paulo City


tate Immense, Larger than the UK

t h a n United Kingdom (243,610 km sq)

United Kin dom Countr (243,610 km sq)

18Sources: Publically Available Information


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2. Production/Resources: Manageme

Sao Paulo Brazils Leading Fo

Sao Paulo State,


nt Sourced in Sao Paulo, Labor Local

reign Investment Destination

Campinas

Pau

lo

OsascoMau

San J ose dos Campos

S

Sao Bernardo do Campo



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2. Production/Resources: Rio State I

Rio de Janeiro State (43,696 km

Rio de Janeiro (State)(43,696 km sq)

Rio de J aneiro City


o e ane ro a e

mense, as Large as Countries

q) r o u g h l y s am e si ze Sw i t z e r l a n d

Switzerland Countr(41,285 km sq)



22/32

2. Production/Resources: Manageme

Rio de Janeiro Region a Leading Invest

Rio de Janeiro State,


nt Sourced in Rio, Labor Local

ent Destination for Oil and Gas Sector



23/32

3. Innovation: Where are Leading In

Innovatio

Manaus

San PSao J

Santa Rita d

Curitiba

Sao Leopoldo

Copyright2010Exolus.Allrightsreserved..

Por

Sources: Kirsten Bound, Brazil t

ovation Nodes?

n clusters

FocusAreas

Fortaleza

Sao Luis

Electronics

Lifesciences

Informationtechnology

Recife

Health

Microelectronics

Nuclearenergy

Salvador

Belo Horizonte

Aeronaut cs

Oiltechnology

Agriculture

Bioenergy

ulo Rio De Janeiroose de Campos

e SapucaiVitoria

Florianopolis

22

to Alegre

e Natural Knowledge Economy; Isabel Bortagaray, Innovation Clusters in Latin America


24/32

3. Innovation: The Largest Aerospac

Anchor: Em b r a e r Worlds 3r

AerolaneLacit

Akaer

Brascopter

Embrasim

UTEC

PanMetal

Friuli

EQE

ESRA

Finetornos

GloboUsinagem

AmbraSolutions

GeometraBTE


ovann assare a

GraunaAerospaceInbraAerospace

Cluster in Southern Hemisphere

Largest Aircraft Manufacturer

Solutions&DesignEngineering

Tec las

Lima&Bonf

VBJEngenharia

VectraTechnology

Rastreal

LaneDesign

FlightSolutions

FlightTechnologies

TKA

MikroStamp

PhoenixServiosAeronuticos

GMPMarcatto

Gyrofly

Lanmar

23

FibraforteEngenharia

Massucato

Sources: DECOMI, Brazilian Aerospace Cluster, Believing in Great Ideas


25/32

3. Innovation: A Global Leader in Gr

Installed Green Energy: Brazil 45%

Primar En

100%Green 45% Gree

70%

80%

50%

60%

30%

40%

10%

20%


Brazil OE

en Energy - Biomass, Hydro

OECD Average 7% World 12%

er Su l *

8% Green 12%

Geo/Sol/Wind

Hydro

Biomass

Nuclear

Oil

Coal

24Source: International Energy Agency, Brazil Ministry of Mines and Energy

D World *For Year 2008


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25


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Brazil Economic Outlook: Large Forex

Worlds 7th Largest Forex Reserves Low

z BrazilHoldsTheWorlds7thLargestForeign In2011theCentralBankhasaccumulatedove

billion

in

2004.

Theaccumulationoflargeexternalsurpluses

z LowExternalDebt/GDPRatioandPositiveCu Healthy

external

debt

to

GDP

ratio

at

14%

of

Federalbudgetdeficitat2.3%GDPin2010;p

z BrazilsBankingSystemunderStableandRap Banking

deposits

grew

at

CAGR

or

over

29%

du

peopletobanksystem. Moreover,thedeposit

creditcrunch.

Bankingsectorassetsareprojectedtogrowat


eserves, Positive Fundamentals

External Debt Growing Banking System

xchangeReserves: USD316billionrUSD316billioninforeignreserves,upfromUSD50

eansfinancialsystemenjoysabundantliquidity.

rrentAccountBalanceDP

in

2010.

rojectedtodecreaseto1.7%ofGDPin2011.

dExpansionring

2002

2008

which

indicate

strong

confidence

of

systemremainedmostlyunaffectedthroughtheglobal

CAGRof10%from2010to2013.

27Source: CentralBankofBrazil,OECD


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For a Comparative PerspectivePlease Refer to the Foll

China 2020 India

Found on S

http://www.slideshare.net/contest/worl

http://www.slideshare.net/Exolus/india-2

http://www.slideshare.net/Exolus/russia-2

Download


www.exolus.com/en/k

with the other BRIC Countrieswing Research Reports

2020 Russia 2020

lideshare @

s-best-presentation-contest-2010/entries

020-what-india-will-look-like-in-the-future

020-what-will-russia-look-like-in-the-future

Reports @

28

owledge/research.html


30/32

Global Ex ansiCross-Border Inve

(Greenfield, M&A, Joint

About Exolus: Exolus is a hybrid management consultmanagement teams in the development of their global eformats: Greenfield, M&A, J oint Ventures and Outsourcirovidin ro ram mana ement across all hases of cro

searches and evaluation, through investment structuring

The founders of Exolus have spent the past two decadeexperience operating in nearly all of the major investmenas serve c en s o a s zes, o pu c an prva e, o

million to greater than USD1 billion. We have served cliSciences, Manufacturing, Automotive, Technology, Retail

Follow Exolus at:

Need Further Informat


.

on Strate & stment Executionentures, Outsourcing)

ing and transaction advisory firm. We work withpansion strategies, across the range of investmentg. As well, we deploy against global strategies bys-border investment ro ects, from candidate

and negotiations.

in the global service space and have directt destinations in the world (40+ countries). The teampro ec s a range n nves men s ze romnts across all of the following industry segments: Life, Consumer Business, Real Estate, Public Sector.

ww.exolus.com

on: [email protected]

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Global Corporate Platforms: Competitive or Obsolete for Tomorrow’s World?

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