Global Climate Modeling: The Challenge to Create a World ...€¦• 1995 – CPTEC/COLA T62L28...
Transcript of Global Climate Modeling: The Challenge to Create a World ...€¦• 1995 – CPTEC/COLA T62L28...
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Global Climate Modeling: The Challenge to Create a World-Class
Model in Brazil
Paulo Nobre2,1, José P. Bonatti2, Chou S. Chan2,1, Marcos Costa3, Saulo Freitas2,1, José Marengo1, Karla Longo1,
Gilvan Sampaio1, Carlos A. Nobre1,4
1Center for Earth System Science 2Center for Weather Forecasts and Climate Studies National Institute for Space Research – INPE, Brazil
3Federal University of Viçosa
4Presenter
Latina American Faculty Summit 2010 Guarujá, Brazil, 12 May 2010
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Framing the Challenge …
1. Do we have a track record of experience to embark upon the development of a world-class global climate system model?
2. Do we have a robust strategy, a road-map to reach the goal and sufficient expertise to carry it out to completion?
3. Do we have adequate infra-structure for global climate system modeling?
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Outline … • What we have accomplished in Numerical
Weather Prediction (NWP), Numerical Seasonal Climate Prediction (NSCP), Regional Climate Change Modeling, and Air Quality Prediction at INPE
• Development of the Brazilian Model of the Global Climate System (BMGCS):
• HadGEM: Comparison to a World-Class Model
• What are MBSCG unique contributions in each component model
• Infra-structure and why we need big computers
• International Collaboration and South - South Cooperation: capacity building, human resources, „peopleware‟
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INPE innovated in meteorological and climate science in Brazil
15 years of experience in developing Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP), Numerical Seasonal Climate Prediction (NSCP), Regional Climate Change Modeling, Air Quality Prediction at INPE, and climate modeling in general
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CPTEC‟s NWP forecast Skill Historical Evolution
Useful Predictions:
> 60%
7 days
6 days
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Seasonal Climate Prediction at INPE: Timeline
• 1987 – Conceptual Prediction of northern Nordeste MAM Precipitation Anomalies: ENSO, Atlantic Dipole, NAO…
• 1995 – CPTEC/COLA T62L28 AGCM‟s 5 member ensembles: additional element to the consensus prediction (persisted SSTA globally).
• 1997 – CCA statistical prediction for tropical Atlantic SSTA and NCEP coupled prediction for the Pacific.
• 1998 – 25 members ensembles using persisted and predicted SST.
• 2000 – Use single integration of Eta regional model extended runs 3 months
• 2003 – F77 CPTEC/COLA AGCM replaced by F90 CPTEC V2.0 AGCM
• 2008 – Use of CPTEC coupled GCM to predict ENSO
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CPTEC AGCM (Kuo) AMJ Seasonal Precipitation Forecast Skill
Very good seasonal
predictions in NE Brazil and Eastern
Amazonia!
Courtesy: C. Coelho, INPE/CPTEC
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CCST‟s Regional Climate Change Modeling and Scenarios
Coordinator: Dr. J. Marengo
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Rainfall changes (%) 2071-2100 relative to 1961-90, A2
Temperature changes © 2071-2100 relative to 1961-90, A2
(Marengo et al 2009)
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Projections of Consecutive Dry
Days (CDD) simulated by the Regional Model
(2071-2100)
(Marengo et al 2007)
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INPE‟s Vegetation Fire Monitoring and Air Quality Prediction
Coordinators: Dr Karla Longo and Dr. Saulo Freitas
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INPE moves into climate change research
Road-map to the development of the Brazilian Model of the Global Climate System (BMGCS)
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The climate system
Schematic view of the components of the climate system, their processes and interactions.
FAQ 1.2, Figure 1
IPCC (2007)
IPCC (2007)
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Brazilian Model of the Global Climate System
FAQ 1.2, Figure 1
Mid 2000s
Atmosphere
Land Surface
Ocean & Sea-Ice
Sulphate
Aerosol
Non-sulphate
Dynamic
Vegetation
Atmospheric
Chemistry
Aerosol
Carbon Cycle
Atmosphere
Land Surface
Ocean & Sea-Ice
Sulphate
Aerosol
Non-sulphate
Aerosol
Carbon Cycle
Atmosphere
Land Surface
Ocean & Sea-Ice
Sulphate
Aerosol
Atmosphere
Land Surface
Ocean & Sea-Ice
Atmosphere
Land Surface
Atmosphere
Around 2000 Late 1990s Early 1990s Mid-1980s Mid-1970s
The Climate System
IPCC (2007)
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Our needs –
Why do we need our own model?
• Develop in-country capacity to generate future
environmental change scenarios
• Represent processes that are important to us and may
be considered secondary in other models
• Benefit from and integrate with multiple large research
programs in Brazil, like LBA, PRODES, GEOMA, etc.
• Form a new generation of land surface, ocean,
atmosphere, chemistry… climate modelers
• Advance climate science
• Collaborate with countries with similar interests
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Development of INPE‟s Global Climate System Model
(i) full use of CPTEC‟s experience and sub-models
(ii) collaboration with advanced climate change centers abroad
– Take CPTEC Global Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Model as the structuring building-block
– Use GFDL/FMS coupler to add components:
• dynamic vegetation with carbon cycle;
• ocean carbon cycle;
• enhanced sea ice and pack ice;
• GHG and aerosols;
• atmospheric chemistry, etc.
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ESM component models & coupler
Constructed as modular components connected by a coupler (black): a program that transfers fluxes between the model components.
McGuffie & Henderson-
Sellers (2005)
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Figure 1 - The Global Climate System. A modified "Bretherton Diagram"highlighting linkages between biogechemical and physical climate systems. (Guy P.Brasseur, NCAR)
CPTEC.2.0 T213L64
Global, 1/8 x 1/8 deep tropics, L50
INLAND
GFDL's FMS
MOM4
Schematic Diagram of the Sub-Models of the Brazilian Global Climate System Model
(Adapted from Brasseur, NCAR)
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INPE’s Climate Forecast Coupled Suite Goal
Coupled
Initialization
AGCM
OGCM
Atmos OBS
T-S
IC
Coupled
Forecast
Atmos FCST
daily/hourly
SFC fluxes
SST
OGCM
AGCM
Regional Model
3 hourly
Hydrology Model
Crop Model
Health Model
Wave Model
Courtesy: P. Nobre, INPE/CPTEC
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Hadley Centre / Met Office
Atmosphere Atmosphere Atmosphere Atmosphere Atmosphere Atmosphere
Land surface Land surface Land surface Land surface Land surface
Ocean & sea-ice Ocean & sea-ice Ocean & sea-ice Ocean & sea-ice
Sulphate
aerosol
Sulphate
aerosol
Sulphate
aerosol
Non-sulphate
aerosol
Non-sulphate
aerosol
Carbon cycle
Atmospheric chemistry
Ocean & sea-ice model
Sulphur cycle model
Non-sulphate aerosols
Carbon cycle model
Land carbon cycle model
Ocean carbon cycle model
Atmospheric chemistry
Atmospheric chemistry
Off-line model development Strengthening colours denote improvements in models
Development of the Hadley Centre models
1975 1985 1992 1997 2004 2009
HadCM3 HadGEM1 HadGEM2
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Atmosphere Atmosphere Atmosphere Atmosphere Atmosphere
Land surface Land surface Land surface Land surface Land surface
Ocean Ocean & sea-ice Ocean & sea-ice Ocean & sea-ice
Sulphate
aerosol
Non-sulphate
aerosol
Atmospheric chemistry
Atmospheric chemistry
Atmospheric chemistry
Development of INPE Climate Models
1994 2002 2009 2011 2013
CPTEC BMGCS BMGCS
High Res Hydrology
COLA CPTEC/COLA
Dynamic Vegetation
Dynamic Vegetation
Sulphate
aerosol
Non-sulphate
aerosol
Atmospheric chemistry
Terrestrial carbon cycle
Complete carbon cycle (land
&ocean)
Vegetation Fire }
Land use model
Crop Model
Off-line model development Strengthening colours denote improvements in models
Courtesy: G. Sampaio, INPE/CCST
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Earth System Components in HadGEM2
Hadley Centre Global Environment Model 2
Fully coupled Earth System Model
• Atmosphere, ocean, sea-ice, land surface
• Land ecosystems: dynamic vegetation, soil carbon
• TRIFFID, RothC Surface Models
• Ocean ecosystems: NPZD, diatoms, non-diatoms, DMS
• Diat-HadOCC Biogeochemical Model
• Aerosols: Sulphate, BC, OC, dust, sea salt
• Tropospheric chemistry: ozone, methane, oxidants
• UKCA (UK Chemistry and Aerosols Model)
C. Senior (2009), Hadley Centre / Met Office
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Earth System Components in BMGCS
• Fully coupled Earth System Model
• Atmosphere, ocean, sea-ice, land surface
• Land surface: all relevant land surface processes: exchange of
mass and energy, photosynthesis, vegetation dynamics, terrestrial
carbon cycle, other terrestrial biogeochemical cycles, fire, agricultural
land use, surface hydrology and groundwater, ice sheets, etc.
• INLAND (IBIS) Surface Dynamic Vegetation Model
• Ocean ecosystems: NPZD, diatoms, N2 fixation,
zooplankton, CaCO3
• IGBC, BLING, TOPAZ biogeochemical models
• Aerosols: Sulphate, BC, OC, dust, sea salt
• Tropospheric chemistry: ozone, methane, oxidants
• CATT (INPE‟s Chemical and aerosol model) Courtesy: P. Nobre, INPE/CPTEC
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INPE developments on the atmospheric chemistry modeling
Coupled Chemistry-Aerosol-Tracer Transport model
Freitas et al., 2009. Atmos. Chem. Phys., 9, 2843-2861
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280
tot
parcel env
al
Th kWm
rw
T
230
total
parcel envh kWm
T T
rw
2
230
80
w h kWm
w h kWm
Injection layer
plume top lower bound
plume top upper bound
1D plume-rise model for vegetation fires Biome: Forest Time duration: 50 mn Fire size: 20 ha Heat flux: 80 kWm-2 / 30 kWm-2
Including plume rise mechanism trough
”super-parameterization” concept
Freitas et al., 2006. Geophys. Res. Lett.,
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Genealogy of Land Surface Parameterizations
SSIB
IBIS
INLAND
Courtesy: G. Sampaio, INPE/CCST
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Trends in land surface modeling
• Models
– 5th generation models currently tend to integrate all relevant land surface processes
• Exchange of mass and energy
• Photosynthesis
• Vegetation dynamics
• Terrestrial carbon cycle
• Other terrestrial biogeochemical cycles (N, etc.)
• Agricultural land use
• Urban areas
• Emissions of trace gases, VOCs, dust and aerosols
• Ice sheets
• Surface hydrology and groundwater
• Etc.
Courtesy: G. Sampaio, INPE/CCST
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BMGCS - Land Surface Model
Processes to be represented
River discharge and seasonally flooded areas
Crops
Recovery of abandoned lands
Phenology and vegetation dynamics
Complete terrestrial carbon cycle
Fluxes of radiation, energy and mass
Continental ice sheets
Anthropogenic land use (deforestation)
Fires (ignition, combustion, spreading, emissions)
Specific representation of South American ecosystems
Soil fertility, enhanced ecophysiology
Urban areas
Courtesy: G. Sampaio, INPE/CCST
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HAND Model-Landscape Descriptor, A. D. Nobre, 2010
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River flow and flooded areas
• Aplications over:
– Amazônia
– Pantanal
– Araguaia
• Implications: – Flux exchanges
between surface and atmosphere
– Hydrology – Carbon cycle
Costa et al., in press Courtesy: G. Sampaio, INPE/CCST
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Land-Ocean coupling: River inflow effects on ocean
circulation and salinity
MOM3 w/o river discharge
MOM4 with river discharge
Source: P. Nobre (personal comm.)
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Ice Cover Simulation INPE COUPLED O-A GCM
Source: P. Nobre (personal comm.)
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Ocean Model Grid
Source: P. Nobre (personal comm.)
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OGCM Grid
High Res: 0.25º Lon Lat Tropical Atlantic
Source: P. Nobre (personal comm.)
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NEW VERSION:
• Triangular 3.0 CPTEC AGCM
• Use of Fortran 90/95 Features (Dynamical Allocation, Modules, etc)
• New Optimizations: Vectorization and OpenMP and MPI Paralelism
• Reduced Linear Gaussian Grid
• Main Resolutions: TL199L42, TL256L42, TL511L64, TL639L96
BOUNDARY CONDITIONS:
• Three-Dimensional Ozone Fields
• Variable Values for Atmospheric CO2 Amount
• Observed Soil Moisture and Snow.
SPECTRAL DYNAMIC:
• Primitive Equations (Zonal and Meridional Winds)
• Semi-Implicit Time Integration (Semi-Lagrangean) and Asselin Filter
CPTEC AGCM In-House DEVELOPMENTS:
Courtesy: J. P. Bonatti, INPE/CPTEC
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INPE-CPTEC CGCM V.2.0 T213 L64, Kuo, 4 x daily coupling
30 days avrg spinup SST
Source: P. Nobre (personal comm.)
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INPE initiated operating a supercomputer back in 1994
Global climate system models require big supercomputers
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The Earth Simulator in Japan
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NEC SX-6
1994 1998 2004
1PByte
2007: Cluster Massivamente Paralelo de 1.100 processadores e 5.7 TFlops
15 TFlops sustained
100 Pbytes armazena//
SX3 SX3
SX4
SX6
INPE‟s supercomputing facility
Courtesy: J. P. Bonatti, INPE/CPTEC
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MCT/INPE-REDE CLIMA-FAPESP Supercomputer for Climate Change Research
Sustained
Throughput
15 Tflops
Main Memory 20 TBytes
Primary Storage 3 PBytes
Aquisition
Installation
Late 2010
Total budget US$ 25 M
and will make it possible to run global climate model simulations at high
spatial resolutions to grid sizes of 20 km !
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Why do we need super and ultra-computing capabilities?
Dealing with the question of very high resolution model runs to resolve climate variability and change…
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Competing demands of resolution, complexity, uncertainty, and long integrations in Climate System
Modelling:
Resolution
Complexity
Uncertainty
Long simulations
Courtesy: J. Shukla, IGES/COLA
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Why a move to higher resolution is necessary
I: Complexity in the atmosphere
Water vapour and window channel radiances from Meteosat-7
Same fields from HadAM3 at climate resolution
Courtesy: J. Shukla, IGES/COLA
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Why a move to higher resolution is necessary
II: Complexity in the ocean
SSTs in the Gulf stream from infrared measurements aboard MODIS
10 …. and as simulated by OCCAM
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Courtesy: J. Shukla, IGES/COLA
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Equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures (0C) from UK Ocean Model
1/12o
1/4o
1o
Courtesy: J. Shukla, IGES/COLA
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Weather Prediction Model of ~2020
Coupled Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Model
~1 km x ~1 km
100 levels
Unstructured, adaptive grids
Landscape-resolving
(~100 m)
~1 km x ~1 km
50 levels
Unstructured, adaptive grids
Assumption: Computing power enhancement by a factor of 103-104
Courtesy: J. Shukla, IGES/COLA
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Tropical Hurricane Catarina Hits Brazil on 27 March 2004
Source: Hadley Centre, UK
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Do we have sufficient human resources for the task ahead?
The greatest challenge of all: human resources, international collaboration and South - South cooperation: capacity building
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The greatest Challenge:„Peopleware‟
Model Component Present* In 5 years* In 10 years*
Atmosphere 15 + 10 30 + 15 45 + 30
Land 20 + 25 30 + 50 50 + 70
Chemistry 7 + 5 15 + 20 25 + 30
Ocean 10 + 5 20 + 40 30 + 80
TOTAL 52 + 45 95 + 125 150 + 210
* Researchers + Students/Collaborators
• Long term research programs: FAPESP Research Program on Global Climate Change; Rede CLIMA; INCT for Climate Change
• 10 Doctoral programs supporting capacity building in Earth System Modeling
• Annual “International Summer Schools” will engage some 40 doctoral students/post-docs from S. America, S. Africa and India fellows per year.
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Interactions with the international
community • Established partnership with other Research Institutions
– University of Wisconsin
– University of Minnesota
– Woods Hole Research Center
– MIT, CNRS, University of Toronto, University of British Columbia
• “South-South” Climate Model Development
• South Africa: CSIR, UCT
• India: IITM, IISc
• South America: Chile, Argentina, Uruguay…
• Joint development, parameterization and testing
• Code sharing
• Conferences, etc.
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Conclusions …
1. We do have in Brazil a track record of work with the type of models one needs for the development of a world-class global climate system model.
2. We do have a road-map to reach the goal and have completed already several steps.
3. We are modernizing supercomputer infra-structure with a state-of-the-art computer.
4. We have minimum „critical mass‟ and this is perhaps the great challenge for the success of this project.
1. We do have in Brazil a track record of work with the type of models one needs for the development of a world-class global climate system model.
2. We do have a road-map to reach the goal and have completed already several steps.
3. We are modernizing supercomputer infra-structure with a state-of-the-art computer.
4. We have minimum „critical mass‟ and this is perhaps the great challenge for the success of this project.
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BMGCS Component models…
• Atmos GCM: – CPTEC.2.0 mpi/open_mp, – Semi-Lagrangian, – Resolution T62L64; T126L64; T213L64
• Increased PBL and Stratosphere vertical resolution
– RAS/Grell deep cumulus convection • Improved stratus parameterization scheme
– atmospheric chemistry & aerosols
• Land Surface Model: INLAND – Dynamic vegetation
– Carbon Cycle
– Fire Model
– Improved hires land surface hidrology
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BMGCS Component models…
• OGCM: – MOM4, – Global, 1/4 x 1/4 deep tropics, – L50, 10m spacing upper 250 m, – Philander and Pakanowski vertical mixing – free surface, – fresh water flux, – river inflow;
– Dynamical ice model (SIS) – Biogeochemistry model (Topaz, Bling)
• GFDLs FMS (Flexible Modeling System) coupler – Up to 3-hourly coupling interval (limited by
atmospheric radiation sub-routine)
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The climate system – Brazilian Model
CLIMATE
CHEMISTRY ECOSYSTEMS
Land Use –
INLAND
MODEL
AEROSOLS GHG’s
Greenhouse Effect Direct and
Indirect Effects
Human
Emissions
Human
Emissions
Human
Emissions
DMS,
Mineral dust
Biogenic Emissions:CH4
Dry & Wet deposition: stomatal conductance
Oxidants:
OH, H2O2
HO2,O3
CH4
CO2
Fe deposition
Adapted from UKMET Office
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© Crown copyright Met Office
The climate system – HadGEM2
CLIMATE
CHEMISTRY ECOSYSTEMS
AEROSOLS GHG’s
Greenhouse Effect Direct and
Indirect Effects
Human
Emissions
Human
Emissions
Human
Emissions
Land-use
Change
Online
Offline
DMS,
Mineral dust
Biogenic Emissions:CH4
Dry & Wet deposition: stomatal conductance
Oxidants:
OH, H2O2
HO2,O3
CH4
CO2
Fe deposition