Iracema F.A.Cavalcanti Silvia M.B. Araujo CPTEC/INPE...
Transcript of Iracema F.A.Cavalcanti Silvia M.B. Araujo CPTEC/INPE...
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CORRECTION OF CPTEC/INPE AGCM PRECIPITATION ERRORS IN SEASONAL
SIMULATIONS
Iracema F.A.CavalcantiSilvia M.B. Araujo
CPTEC/INPEBrazil
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Climatological features
NNE : MAM
Rainy season
NSE: DJF
ITCZ
SACZ
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OBJECTIVE: To remove anomaly precipitation errors of two regions of South America aiming the improvement of the seasonal
prediction.
• DATA AND METHOD:
• Observed precipitation CMAP and GPCP
• Model Simulation: CPTEC/INPE AGCM T62L28
• Period: 1981-2000
• NNE region (10,2ºS - 2,7ºS; 39.3W- 35.6W) MAM
• NSE region (21,4ºS - 15,8ºS; 43,1ºW - 35,6ºW;) DJF
• The errors were calculated by the differences between model and observed mean precipitation in each region and each year.
• The errors were classified in crescent order and divided in groups
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ERRORS in NNE
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Large positive errors 1.26Small Positive errors 0.12Large negative errors -1.49Small negative errors -0.44
NNE
2.030.31-1.26-0.34
NSE
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PRECIPITATION ANOMALIES OBSERVED, SIMULATED, CORRECTED MAM NNE
Anomalias Observadas, do Modelo e Corrigidas - NNE (MAM)
-4-3
-2-1
01
23
45
1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
Anos
Ano
mal
ias
Anol. Obs.Anol. Mod.Anol. Corr.
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PRECIPITATION ANOMALIES OBSERVED, SIMULATED, CORRECTED DJF NSE
Anomalias Observadas, do Modelo e Corrigidas - NSE (DJF)
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000Anos
Ano
mal
ias
Anol. Obs.Anol. Mod.Anol. Corr.
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Ocean and Atmospheric features
• G1: Large negative anomaly errors• G2: Small negative anomaly errors• G3: Small positive anomaly errors• G4: Large positive anomaly errors
• 3 extreme years of each group
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Precipitation anomalies G1 G4
GPCP
AGCM
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Precipitation anomalies G2 G3
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SST anomalies
G2
G4
G1
G3
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OLR observed anomalies
AGCM OLR anomalies
G1 G4
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OLR observed anomalies
AGCM OLR anomalies
G2 G3
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G1 G4
ERAI
AGCM
850 hPa
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G2 G3
ERAI
AGCM
850 hPa
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NORTHERN SOUTHEAST
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Precipitation anomalies
AGCM
G1 G4
GPCP
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AGCM
Precipitation anomaliesG2 G3
GPCP
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SST anomalies G1 G4
G2 G3
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Observed OLR anomalies
AGCM OLR anomalies
G1 G4
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Observed OLR anomalies
AGCM OLR anomalies
G2 G3
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G1 G4
ERAI
AGCM
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G2 G3
ERAI
AGCM
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Conclusion• NNE (MAM) : Large errors when there is MJO signal Apply G1 correction when there is less convection in Indonesia region.Apply G4 correction when there is more convection in Indonesia region.
• NSE (DJF) : Large errors in ENSO
Apply the G1 correction for El Niño and G4 correction for La Niña
• Both cases: errors are related to the Low level flow
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NEXT
• Apply the correction to the past seasonal prediction for verification and further use.
• Correction of each grid point .
• Analyses of other areas of South America
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Meira and Cavalcanti, 2009
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Meira and Cavalcanti, 2009