Global Climate Change Overview Michael D. Mastrandrea, Ph.D. Deputy Director, Science, IPCC Working...
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Transcript of Global Climate Change Overview Michael D. Mastrandrea, Ph.D. Deputy Director, Science, IPCC Working...
Global Climate ChangeOverview
Michael D. Mastrandrea, Ph.D.
Deputy Director, Science, IPCC Working Group IIand
Assistant Consulting Professor Woods Institute for the Environment
Global climate change is…
• unequivocal,
• almost certainly caused mostly by us,
• already causing significant harm
• growing rapidly, and
• requires global action and local solutions.
The Key Facts
J. Hansen et al., PNAS 103: 14288-293 ( 2006)
…And Not Uniform
Average Surface T in 2001-2005 vs 1951-80
Muir Glacier, Alaska
NSIDC/WDC for Glaciology, Boulder, compiler. 2002, updated 2006. Online glacier photograph database. Boulder, CO: National Snow and Ice Data Center.
August 1941 August 2004
Shrinking Glaciers
1992 2002 2005
Source: ACIA, 2004, CIRES, 2005, Roger Braithwaite, University of Manchester (UK)
Surface melting on Greenland is expanding
LAND
ATMOSPHERE750 Gt C
379 ppm CO2
OCEANS
emissions fromterrestrial systems 100 Gt C per year
absorption byterrestrial systems103 Gt C per year
emissions frommarine systems100 Gt C per year
absorption bymarine systems102 Gt C per year
human-caused emissions: 9 Gt C per year
Carbon Flows (2005)
IPCC, 2007Black = ObservedGold = Human and Natural ForcingsBlue = Only Natural Forcings
Fingerprint Analysis
Raupach et al. 2007, PNAS
Recent emissions
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
CO
2 E
mis
sion
s (G
tC y
-1)
5
6
7
8
9
10Actual emissions: CDIACActual emissions: EIA450ppm stabilisation650ppm stabilisationA1FI A1B A1T A2 B1 B2
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100C
O2 E
mis
sion
s (G
tC y
-1)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30Actual emissions: CDIAC450ppm stabilisation650ppm stabilisationA1FI A1B A1T A2 B1 B2
20062005
Rapidly Increasing Emissions