Global Change and Caribbean Vulnerability: Environment, Economy and Society at Risk, edited by...

8/3/2019 Global Change and Caribbean Vulnerability: Environment, Economy and Society at Risk, edited by Duncan McGrego

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Wi h f d b O D i


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Global Change and Caribbean Vulnerability


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University of the West Indies Press

Jamaica Barbados Trinidad and Tobago

E D I T E D B Y

Duncan McGregor

David DodmanDavid Barker

Global Change andCaribbean Vulnerability

Environment, Economy andSociety at Risk


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University of the West Indies Press

7A Gibraltar Hall Road Mona

Kingston 7 Jamaica

www.uwipress.com

2009 by Duncan McGregor, David Dodman and David Barker

All rights reserved. Published 2009

CATALOGUING IN PUBLICATION DATA

Global change and Caribbean vulnerability: environment, economy andsociety at risk / edited by Duncan McGregor, David Dodman, David Barker.

p. cm.

Papers presented to the international conference: Global Change and Carib-bean Vulnerability, held at the Mona campus, University of the West Indies in

July 2006.

Includes bibliographical references.

ISBN: 978-976-640-221-1

1. Sustainable development Caribbean, English-speaking. 2. Naturaldisasters Jamaica. 3. Natural disasters Caribbean, English-speaking.4. Food supply Jamaica. 5. Urbanization Environmental aspects Caribbean, English-speaking. 1. McGregor, Duncan F.M. II. Dodman,David. III. Barker, David, 1947

GE160.C27G48 2006 363.7'009729

Cover design by Robert Harris.

Printed in the United States of America


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v

Contents

Foreword / ix

Preface / xvAcknowledgements / xix

Part 1 Caribbean Vulnerability and Global Change

1 Caribbean Vulnerability and Global Change: Contemporary

Perspectives / 3

David Barker,David Dodmanand DuncanMcGregor

2 Caribbean Vulnerability: Development of an Appropriate

Climatic Framework / 22

Douglas Gamble

Part 2 Managing Vulnerable Environments

3 Hurricanes or Tsunami? Comparative Analysis of Extensive

Boulder Arrays Along the Southwest and North Coasts of

Jamaica: Lessons for Coastal Management / 49

Deborah-Ann Rowe,Shakira Khanand EdwardRobinson

4 An Investigation into the Causes and Consequences of Coastal

Flooding in Guyana / 74

Patrick Williamsand LindaJohnson-Bhola


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vi Contents

5 Potential Impacts of Anthropogenic Environmental Change on

the Caribbean Karst / 100

Mick Dayand SeanChenoweth

6 Environmental Vulnerability and Ecosystem Services in the

Jamaican Tourist Industry / 123

Elizabeth Thomas-Hopeand AdonnaJardine-Comrie

7 Framing Vulnerability in Jamaica's Cockpit Country:

Economic and Political Constraints on Scientic

Claims / 142

Kemi George

8 Building Capacity and Resilience to Adapt to Change:

The Case of the Blue and John Crow Mountains National

Park / 165

Susan Otuokonand Shauna-Lee Chai

Part 3 Vulnerability and Domestic Food Supply

9 Environmental Change and Caribbean Food Security:

Recent Hazard Impacts and Domestic Food Production

in Jamaica / 197

Duncan McGregor,David Barker and DonovanCampbell

10 Vulnerability, Constraints and Survival on Small-Scale Food

Farms in Southern St Elizabeth, Jamaica: Strengthening LocalFood Production Systems / 218

Clinton Beckfordand SteveBailey

11 (Re)dening the Link? Globalization, Tourism and the

Jamaican Food Supply Network / 237

Kevon Rhiney

Part 4 Urban Vulnerability and Urban Change

12 From Slum to Ghetto: Multiple Deprivation in Kingston,

Jamaica /261

Colin Clarke


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Contents vii

13 Asset-Based Responses to Urban Vulnerability: An Analysis of

Livelihood Strategies in Waterhouse, Jamaica / 279

David Dodman

14 Urban Violence, Crime and the Threat to Democratic

Security in the Dominican Republic / 298

David Howard

15 Conicting Environments: Negotiating Social and Ecological

Vulnerabilities in Urban Jamaica and Curaao / 317

Rivke Jaffe

16 Caribbean Urban Livelihoods and Policies: Targeting Assets,

Vulnerability and Diversity / 336

Hebe Verrest

Part 5 Synthesis

17 Beyond Caribbean Vulnerability: Towards Resistance andResilience / 365

David Dodman,Duncan McGregorand DavidBarker

Contributors / 385


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ix

Foreword

I consider it an honour to have been asked to write the foreword

for this book, which represents the compilation of the contributions

made at the International Conference Global Change and CaribbeanVulnerability, held at the Mona campus of the University of the West

Indies in July 2006.

As small nation states, the islands of the Caribbean are vulnerable

on many different fronts. Although one focus of the conference was

global climate change, there are other areas for example, international

economic arrangements that also serve to highlight the vulnerability

of small Caribbean nation states. Such vulnerability has resulted from

the effects of the phenomenon of globalization. Although often not

dened in precise terms, global changes are nonetheless of signicance,

in terms of adverse impact on small economies which face new competi-

tion in areas of trade where they once received special treatment.

In this foreword I wish to assess the impact of global changes on the

natural environment, as well as in terms of social, economic and trade

issues. In making this assessment, it is useful for us to consider three

levels of interaction: rst between countries in international economicfora; second between governments and their citizens, in particular those

in the lower socio-economic cohorts; and nally between various spe-

cial interest groups within individual countries.

In terms of the environment, the early years of this new century

have clearly demonstrated the vulnerability of the Caribbean region to

natural disasters, in particular hurricanes. Countries such as Grenada

and Barbados, and even certain states in the United States which are

unaccustomed to damage caused by hurricanes, have been affected.While all of the population feels the adverse effects when such natural

disasters strike, the poorest groups are those who suffer most in a vari-

ety of ways.


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x Foreword

Hence, damage to infrastructure and to economic activity has

the most serious effects on those with limited or no savings, limited

economic options and limited ability to recover. For example, veryfew Caribbean small farmers have the protection of crop insurance.

Therefore, when their crops are damaged or, worse yet, totally des-

troyed, a whole segment of the previously employed labour force has no

option but to become wards of the state. Similarly, when there is dam-

age to the houses of the poor, only a small percentage has the protection

of insurance coverage. In many instances, even if the householders were

willing to purchase such protection, it is not available based either on

the assessed vulnerability of their locations or the structure of the hous-

ing units.

When a major disaster strikes a vulnerable state, the negative effects

are multifaceted. To begin, there is the distinct possibility of loss of lives,

the impact on economic activity, and the destruction of social and physi-

cal infrastructure. In the majority of instances, and in the absence of

the private safety nets of crop or home insurance, the expectation

is that the state will not only have the responsibility to restore public

infrastructure, but also to contribute to the rehabilitation of individual

households.

On the economic front, global change has, over the last decades,

brought about a reduction/elimination of special tariff barriers and sub-

sidies. As such, local producers in poor countries, whether of manu-

factured goods or agricultural commodities, have been forced to face

increased competition from imports. In many instances, the relative

scales of activity, as well as differences in the level of technology applied,make such competition lopsided. This has become most evident with the

planned, rapid expansion of China's export thrust. Perhaps most impor-

tantly, the ability of home governments to protect domestic producers

against external competition has been eroded over time, as international

trade agreements have made reciprocity a fundamental requirement for

participation. At best, regardless of how just is their cause, developing

countries can only hope to reduce the rate at which special trade ar-

rangements are dismantled.For persons from low-income groups, the challenge of addressing the

negative repercussions of global changes often seems overwhelming. On

the one hand, what had been a predictable way of life for example, pro-

ducing agricultural commodities for export to the European Union is


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Foreword xi

now being challenged as the subsidies that facilitated such exports have

been systematically reduced. If, in addition to this challenge, the same

farmers and producers are faced with destruction of their crops andhousing units by natural disasters, it is not difcult to imagine that their

condence in the future is being undermined.

The fundamental question which a collection of papers such as this

one must seek to answer is as follows: How can these small island states

not only survive these challenges, but improve the socio-economic situ-

ation of the most disadvantaged groups in an environment of change

thus making them more capable of dealing with global changes? The

fact is that while the state must lead the ght, there has to be a coordi -

nated effort, with civil society, the NGO community and the individuals

themselves all playing roles.

We must rst accept that most of these changes are inevitable, and

while diplomatic interventions and negotiations have value and must

be pursued, at best, they can only slow the pace of adjustments. Against

this backdrop, in each country there needs to be a clinical assessment of

whether the economic activities that once dominated can be raised to

higher levels of efciency so as to meet competition. This competition

must be seen as global, regardless of whether production is for the do-

mestic market or for export. Explicit reference is made of competition

in the domestic market which once represented an enclave of protec-

tion determined by national governments. As has been stated previ-

ously, this ability to protect domestic producers is rapidly disappearing

with a growing consensus to remove tariff barriers.

Assessment of which sectors have the potential to survive and prosperin an increasingly competitive environment is always difcult. Aban-

doning traditional economic activities and a way of life is not a decision

which is easily made, either by governments or by those involved in a

particular sector. A natural tendency is to assume that steps can be taken

to preserve the status quo either by appealing to the goodwill of the

rich countries or by lobbying at home for special action to be taken by

national governments, if not by tariffs then by production subsidies.

A major challenge in such instances, when it is apparent that changesare inevitable, is in identifying how the workers/producers in these sectors,

who throughout their lives have been productive members of society,

can be transformed and transferred to another area of activity.

This transformation transcends a question of identifying a suitable,


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alternative economic activity. For example, it is often difcult to convert

someone who, for all his or her working life, has been a banana farmer,

into a producer of some other commodity.This challenge is not unique to the Caribbean. In the United States,

for example, the economic bases of several regions have been radically

changed over the latter half of the twentieth century. The economic

landscape of many industrial towns in the northeast seaboard has been

altered and in few instances have these changes been managed awlessly.

One disturbing phenomenon, which has received too little analytic

assessment, has been the social impact on households where the mem-

bers formerly held jobs in the sectors of economy which have eitherdeclined or been totally abandoned.

The second major challenge is the need to systematically increase

the technical capabilities and knowledge set of the general population.

What is clearly established is that poverty is the inevitable result of the

continued application of low skills and limited knowledge to any task.

Hence, raising the standard of living can only be achieved, and main-

tained on a sustained basis, if the level of training of the population is

correspondingly improved in a systematic manner.

The third issue that arises, particularly in combating devastation of

natural hazards, is that some of the cultural habits of the lowest income

groups have to be confronted. As such, in many instances where well-

meaning organizations seek to protect the rights of disadvantaged

groups, it is sometimes the case that preservation of these rights is

detrimental to the welfare of those for whom protection is being sought.

A specic example illustrates the point. A major reason for loss oflives and widespread devastation following a hurricane or major ood in

the Caribbean is the fact that many housing units were illegally built in

locations where no construction should have been permitted and no of-

cial permission had been granted. Such locations are sometimes referred

to as informal settlements. No long term solution lies in seeking to

provide legal status to such settlers. Rather, the state, in collaboration

with community groups, must systematically address the issue of reloca-

tion and ensure that the new sites chosen for relocation activities mustmeet the most rigid environmental requirements.

As we assess the various ways in which the challenges of global

change can be met, a realization is that a coordinated response covering

various academic disciplines, as well as interest groups, provides the

xii Foreword


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greatest chance for minimizing the negative effects and at the same time

maximizing the potential positive results. As such, the profession of

engineering will need to take greater cognizance of the advice of theenvironmentalists and physical planners, not only in terms of structures

to be erected but also the areas where these constructions should be per-

mitted. The same principle applies to farming activities. We must, at the

same time, re-examine the basic principles of our education system. It

is now clear that there is need for a greater recognition of the potential

negative impact on the economy and society of the abuse of the envi-

ronment, and this awareness must be integrally woven into the formal

school curriculum.There is no question that the changes that have taken place have

represented major challenges to Caribbean nation states. However, they

also have provided us with an opportunity to analytically assess our

resources and determine how various sectors of the society can com-

bine, not simply to combat the challenges, but to move these societies

forward in this increasingly competitive world.

On a positive note, a recent initiative taken by most of the countries

of the Caribbean, assisted by the World Bank, demonstrates a proactive

response to the negative effects of natural disasters. Eighteen states have

joined together to establish an insurance fund which will provide imme-

diate support when a participating member country is hit by a hurricane

or earthquake. The insurance payments will be immediate, thus providing

the authorities with the ability to respond to needs, whether these are

for emergency relief, repairs to vital physical infrastructure or even to

replace revenues lost as a result of reduced economic activity. Work isunderway to assess the actuarial implications of adding crop insurance

and damage resulting from oods to this facility.

A publication such as this, by bringing together academics from dif-

cult elds as well as professionals and state technocrats, provides a

unique opportunity for us to aggregate knowledge and maximize the

benets of interdisciplinary research and solutions. The contents of

this publication will provide, not only to the participants, but also to

researchers, policy makers and the interested lay observer, much onwhich to reect and act.

Omar Davies

Foreword xiii


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xv

Preface

This volume is the fourth in a series of books arising out of the British-

Caribbean Geography Seminar (BCGS) Series. The chapters have been

selected from among the thirty-two papers presented at the fth BCGSheld at the Mona campus of the University of the West Indies in July

2006. The papers have been suitably revised and edited for publication.

The theme of the meeting and the title of the book, Global Change and

Caribbean Vulnerability: Environment, Economy and Society at Risk

focuses on the impact of global change on human and natural systems

in the Caribbean.

The seminar series was inspired originally by the successful Overseas

Seminars promoted by the then Institute of British Geographers during

the 1970s and 1980s. The BCGS has gone from strength to strength and

is the only seminar to last into the new century. This is a fact recognized

by the Royal Geographical Society/Institute of British Geographers, as it

continues to lend its prestigious support to the series. Past meetings also

have received funding support from the Commonwealth Foundation

and the British Council.

A feature of these meetings has been the very high proportion of thepapers presented which are successfully revised and converted into peer-

reviewed publications. The cumulative editorial effort by those involved

has been prodigious. From the outset, it was felt strongly that the lasting

value of an academic meeting can only be measured by its scholarly out-

put. The task of moving from conceptualizing and organizing a meeting

to publishing a volume is daunting, especially because academic con-

ferences have evolved considerably from the days when papers were

prepared and written prior to a conference and often formally readout to the audience. PowerPoint presentations have made conference

papers much more visually interesting, even entertaining. To translate


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a slide presentation into a scholarly article, however, requires a serious

commitment from an author, and determination, patience and fortitude

from the editors.Thus, as in the previous volumes, the chapters here have been sub-

jected to a rigorous peer-review process. Authors of conference papers

selected for the volume were invited to submit manuscripts based on

their presentations, and these were reviewed by the editors. Changes

were then requested for each of submitted chapters to ensure quality

and consistency in the collection, as well as to help elucidate the main

themes of the book. Next, the publishers engaged three independent,

external reviewers who made general comments on the collection andspecic comments on each chapter. Both authors and editors then went

through another round of changes, trimming, extending and generally

ne-tuning the collection. We feel condent that this rigorous two-step

review process has produced another volume of high quality papers.

An overarching theme in each of the ve BCGS meetings has been

empirical research connecting environmental issues and development

problems in the Caribbean region. The inaugural BCGS was held in

1992 at Mona campus, and its theme of Environment and Development

was captioned in the title of the subsequent edited volume Environment

and Development in Small Island States: The Caribbean (edited by

Barker and McGregor, 1995). The book was published by the edgling

Press at the University of the West Indies, and we are indebted to them

for their continued support which has resulted in four books in the

series. The rst BCGS was held in the same year as the landmark Rio

Summit, and, not surprisingly, geographical research in the Caribbeanregion during the 1990s often addressed aspects of sustainable develop-

ment, in the context of vulnerable small islands and the fragile connec-

tions between their environmental and human systems. Such concepts

and ideas were captured in the second BCGS, held in 1995 at Royal

Holloway and the third BCGS, which returned to Mona in 1998. These

meetings resulted in the subsequent UWI Press publications Resource

Sustainability and Caribbean Development (edited by McGregor,

Barker and Sally Lloyd Evans, 1998) and Resources, Planning andEnvironmental Management in a Changing Caribbean (edited by Barker

and McGregor, 2003). Other papers from these meetings have appeared

as special issues of Caribbean Geography: volume 3 (4) in 1992 and

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followed by volume 7 (1) in 1996, then two special issues, volume 9

(2) in 1998 and volume 10 (1) in 1999. The fourth BCGS was held at

San Ignacio in Belize in 2002, in conjunction with the Fourth Interna-tional Belize Conference, and a selection of papers appeared in 2003 in

Caribbean Geography volume 13 (12).

The aims of the fth BCGS were similar to the earlier meetings: to

bring together geographers and researchers from cognate disciplines to

exchange ideas and present their research; to provide a platform for

younger researchers to present their work to a professional audience,

perhaps for the rst time; and to focus on Caribbean environments.

It involved over fty participants and the thirty-two papers presentedranged across the geographical spectrum from regional and sub-regional

climate prediction to the social impacts of environmental change and

economic globalization. Once again, the meeting had a truly interna-

tional avour, including participants from eight Caribbean territories

(Jamaica, Barbados, Antigua, St Lucia, Trinidad, Guyana, Haiti and

Suriname) and from the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, the United

States and Canada. A particular highlight on this occasion was the open-

ing address by Dr Omar Davies, MP, then Jamaicas minister of nance

and planning, who, using his background in geography and planning,

reected on economic and social vulnerability in small island states such

as Jamaica.

Duncan McGregor

David Dodman

David Barker

Preface xvii


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xix

Acknowledgements

We would like to thank a number of institutions and individuals for

their assistance and support in facilitating the fth British-Caribbean

Geography Seminar, held at the Mona campus of the University of theWest Indies in July 2006. The Royal Geographical Society/Institute of

British Geographers kindly provided pump-priming funds for the semi-

nar. Duncan McGregor thanks the Royal Society (Conference Grants

Fund) and the Department of Geography, Royal Holloway, University

of London, for covering the costs of his attendance. We are particularly

indebted to Dr David Howard (Institute of Geography, University of

Edinburgh) for organizing a stimulating session on urban vulnerabilities

in the Caribbean. The administrative staff and geography postgraduates

of the Department of Geography and Geology at Mona are thanked for

their invaluable assistance, especially during registration and through-

out the week of the meeting. Lisa Williams, map curator, Department

of Geography and Geology, is thanked for her help in organizing the

book exhibition and map displays. UWI (Mona) and Community Co-

operative Credit Union is thanked for its generous sponsorship which

facilitated an excellent reception at the Mona Visitors Lodge after theopening ceremony. Most of the maps and diagrams have been drawn or

redrawn by Jenny Kynaston, Geography Department, Royal Holloway,

University of London. The Ofce of Graduate Studies and Research at

the Mona campus of the University of the West Indies is gratefully ac-

knowledged for the award of a grant towards the cost of publishing this

volume.

Duncan McGregorDavid Dodman

David Barker


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P A R T 1

Caribbean Vulnerability

and Global Change


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3

C H A P T E R 1

Caribbean Vulnerability and Global Change

Contemporary Perspectives

D AV I D B A R K E R , D AV I D D O D M A N A N D D U N C A N M c G R E G O R

The Caribbean region is onfronted by global hange on many fronts.

Global warming and limate hange omprise the environmental

engine, while globalization and population growth are the fuel that

drives hanges in the eonomy, soiety and landsapes. Caribbean island

nations are vulnerable to these global hanges in omplex and inter-

onneted ways. This volume reports on urrent researh into the

interations between global physial and human fores and peoplesvulnerability to these fores in the Caribbean.

The volume ontains seventeen substantive hapters organized the-

matially into five parts: Caribbean Vulnerability and Global Change,

Managing Vulnerable Environments, Vulnerability and Domesti Food

Supply, Urban Vulnerability and Urban Change, and Synthesis. The indi-

vidual fous of hapters varies, with a range from Caribbean-wide dis-

ussion, a majority of ase studies from Jamaia, and ase study material

from Guyana, Trinidad and Tobago, Curaao, Suriname and the Domin-ian Republi (the three latter from outside the anglophone Caribbean).

Additionally, however, all ontributors were asked to extend their dis-

ussions beyond their speifi ase studies to the wider Caribbean. The


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4 Caribbean Vulnerability and Global Change

editors have further attempted to broaden the empirial base of the

olletion within a framework of ognate Caribbean issues and researh,

in both this introdutory hapter and in the onluding synthesis.Geography, geology, soiology, soial anthropology, environmental man-

agement and national park management are the professional disiplines

represented by the authors, and the work of several postgraduates is

also inluded in the volume.

This is the fourth volume in a series that highlights the fulrum of envi-

ronmental and developmental researh in the Caribbean. In the earlier

volumes, urrent geographial researh was inorporated into themes

suh as sustainable development, resoure sustainability, small islandsand development, and the omnipresent threat of environmental hazards

suh as tropial storms and hurrianes (Barker and MGregor 1995;

MGregor, Barker and Lloyd Evans 1998; Barker and MGregor

2003). However, from the late 1990s, the impat of eonomi global-

ization inreased the pae of hange and introdued new hallenges for

Caribbean people and nations. Trade liberalization and the global reah

of multinationals have ompounded the vulnerability of island eono-

mies and peoples livelihoods, espeially in the field of agriulture. More

reently, there has been another major reonfiguration of the interrelated

themes of environment and development, as limate hange has aptured

entre stage and its impliations for the Caribbean have started to be

debated and researhed. In this volume, we bring the themes of environ-

ment and development together in a fresh way, braketing limate

hange and eonomi globalization as two major external fores driv-

ing global hange, and highlighting the reality of the Caribbean regionsvulnerability to them.

In the disourse on vulnerability, sientists and soial sientists often

use different definitions and different perspetives. For example, in the

soial sienes, soial vulnerability may refer to the apaity or inability

of individuals, organizations or soiety to ope with the stressors or

hanges to whih they are exposed (Allen 2003). In these ases their

vulnerability is a funtion of soial, eonomi, ultural and polit-

ial proesses. Sientists, on the other hand, tend to view vulnerabilityin terms of the likelihood of ourrene of physial environmental

events (espeially natural hazards) and emphasize the onept of risk

assessment (Smith and Petley 2009). It is of note that the onept of


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David Barker, David Dodman, and Duncan McGregor 5

vulnerability was introdued into the disaster literature by geographers

working in developing ountries, speifially to emphasize the onne-

tion between natural hazardous events and the poor soio-eonomionditions that are often the root ause of disasters (Blaikie et al. 1994).

Chambers (1989) argues that vulnerability has two harateristis,

an internal and an external omponent. This framework is useful in

the ontext of this volumes theme beause it allows us to oneptual-

ize twin fores of limate hange and eonomi globalization (global

hange) as two soures of external shoks and stresses. The internal

omponents of vulnerability are onsidered to be the ability (or inabil-

ity) to adjust to, or ope with, these external fores. Thus, this volumeuses the oneptual lens of vulnerability to fous attention on some of

the environmental and developmental impats of limate hange and

eonomi globalization, and on the adaptive apaity and resiliene of

individuals, ommunities and nations in the Caribbean region. Hene,

the theme and the title of this book: Global Change and Caribbean

Vulnerability: Environment, Economy and Society at Risk?

Perhaps the most signifiant global hange fator influening

Caribbean vulnerability is the threat posed by limate hange. The

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment

Report (2007) states that the warming of the earths limate system is

unequivoal, many natural systems are being affeted by regional

limate hanges and the IPCC report suggests that it is very likely that

most of the observed warming is due to an inrease in anthropogeni

greenhouse gas onentrations. These hanges are expeted to have

major impats for agriulture, forestry and eosystems; water resoures;human health; and industry, settlement and soiety (IPCC 2007).

The IPCC report also took the important step of linking limate

hange and development pathways, adding signifiant weight to our

oneptualization of Global Change and Caribbean Vulnerability as a

ritial urrent researh arena. The report urges, for example, that it is

neessary to onsider projetions of soial and eonomi hanges at the

same time as projetions of limate hange (IPCC 2007, 19). Elsewhere it

emphasizes the reiproal nature of the relationship between sustainabledevelopment and limate hange; sustainable development an redue

vulnerability to limate hange while limate hange itself an impede the

ability of nations to ahieve sustainable development (IPCC 2007, 20).


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One of the likely effets of limate hange in the Caribbean is

the potential threat posed by an inrease in the intensity and severity

of hurrianes (Emanuel 2005). A portent may be the reord lossesexperiened as a result of the 2004 and 2005 hurriane seasons in

the Caribbean Basin and Gulf of Mexio (Boruff and Cutter 2007).

Boruff and Cutter report that Hurriane Wilma aused losses estimated

at US$700 million in Cuba while losses in Grenada by Hurriane Ivan

were estimated at US$3 billion (2007, 25). Hurriane Ivan also devas-

tated Jamaia and the Cayman Islands, but its impat on Grenada was

utterly atastrophi; the damage in monetary value and the disruption to

the eonomy and peoples lives was far greater than the disastrous impatof Hurriane Gilbert on Jamaia in 1988 (Barker and Miller 1990).

In disussing the Caribbean researh agenda, MGregor and Barker

(2003) alluded to the fat that the environmental and developmen-

tal hallenges faing Caribbean islands (lassed as small island

developing states [SIDS]) are quite different from those faing larger

developing ountries like Brazil, Kenya and India. The same harater-

istis that distinguish SIDS from larger ountries (small tropial islands,

small populations and eonomies, limited natural resoures) also makes

them espeially vulnerable to the effets of limate hange, sea-level

rise and extreme events (Briguglio 1995; Pelling and Uitto 2001).

Sea-level rise is expeted to exaerbate inundation, storm surge, erosion

and other oastal hazards; water resoures are likely to be seriously

ompromised; oral reefs, fisheries and other marine-based resoures are

likely to be heavily impated; agriulture is likely to be adversely affeted;

and there are likely to be negative onsequenes on tourism (Mimuraet al. 2007). The nations of the Caribbean fae partiular stresses from

limate hange due to their heavy reliane on oastal areas for their main

eonomi and industrial ativities; this is a theme we return to later.

Reent researh also suggests that urban areas fae distintive hal-

lenges from limate hange (Huq et al. 2007; Biknell, Dodman and

Satterthwaite et al. 2009). This is an important issue for the Caribbean

beause it is one of the worlds most highly urbanized regions, with

more than 65 per ent of the total population living in towns and ities(Potter 2000). The impliations of global environmental hange for

urban areas are signifiant beause of the sale of the population at risk

(more than half the worlds population now lives in urban areas), the


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eonomi osts without adaptation, and the high levels of vulnerability

of urban populations (partiularly low-inome urban residents) to

limate hange (Satterthwaite et al. 2007). Simultaneously, the onen-tration of populations and eonomi ativities means that ities have an

important role to play in the redution of greenhouse gas emissions and

the prevention of atastrophi limate hange (Dodman 2009). This is an

area requiring inreased attention from geographers and other researh-

ers whose expertise inorporates both the physial and the human

sienes. While limate hange will generate new physial threats for

towns and ities, it will also have a disproportionate impat on the urban

poor and other vulnerable groups (Dodman and Satterthwaite 2008).Climate shoks an affet livelihoods in many ways: wiping out rops,

reduing opportunities for employment, pushing up the prie of food

and destroying property. Although wealthy ountries and households

an manage these shoks, poorer ountries and individuals have many

fewer options (UNDP 2007). Poorer ommunities are espeially vulner-

able beause of their more limited adaptive apaities and their greater

dependene on limate-sensitive resoures suh as loal water and

food supplies (Wilbanks et al. 2007). Climate hange in the Caribbean

threatens both environmental and developmental objetives, and limate

hange adaptation needs to be inorporated more thoroughly through-

out the main setors in the region. The mutually reinforing effets of

limate shoks and eonomi globalization are brought into sharp fous

in relation to domesti food prodution, small farmers livelihoods, and

assoiated broader issues of national food seurity and high levels of

food importation. Geographial researh on these themes is gatheringmomentum in the region, and this is refleted throughout this volume,

partiularly in the setion Vulnerability and Domesti Food Supply.

One of the major issues underlying ontemporary researh into both

physial and human fators ontributing to hange is the shifting nature

of the Caribbean limate. Douglas Gamble (hapter 2) reviews observed

limate trends in the Caribbean and notes that the greatest limitation

in the use of global limate models is that their relatively oarse resolu-

tion makes it diffiult to predit limate trends for individual islands.Gamble argues that this renders assessment of Caribbean vulnerabil-

ity inomplete, and thus undermines realisti planning and mitigation

strategies for limate hange. Gamble takes forward the development


29/410


of an appropriate limati framework through an analysis of the widely

observed Caribbean mid-summer drought.

Managing Vulnerable Environments

Managing vulnerable environments is a major hallenge faing Carib-

bean governments, land owners and individual land users alike. Natural

resoures not only impose limits on a wide range of human ativities,

but they themselves are prejudied by the interation of hanging li-

mates and population pressure. This part examines a range of vulner-able Caribbean environments, from the oastal zone to hillside and

mountain environments. First, we introdue the individual hapters in

the setion and then draw some inferenes from them relevant to the

wider Caribbean.

Starting in the oastal zone, Deborah-Ann Rowe, Shakira Khan and

Edward Robinson examine the impliations for oastal zone manage-

ment of extreme limati and seismially indued events (hapter 3). The

presene of extensive fields of large boulders and debris ridges around

Jamaias oasts attests to the power of hurriane storm waves and pos-

sible tsunami events. Rowe et al. relate these features to speifi events,

both reent and historial. The spatial extent of these features delimits

oastal areas within whih development should be onsidered inappro-

priate, yet the authors point out that tourist-related oastal onstrution

ontinues in these vulnerable loations.

Patrik Williams and Linda Johnson-Bhola ontinue the oastaltheme by examining the problem of flooding in Guyanas oastal zone

(hapter 4). They asribe reent floods east of Georgetown to a om-

bination of human and environmental fators. Poor maintenane of

oastal defenes and inadequate land use planning ombine to inrease

peoples vulnerability to flooding. Extensive surveys in oastal ommu-

nities reveal soio-eonomi and health-related impats of flooding on

these ommunities, and point to relative inadequaies in government

response. Responses from householders enable the authors to suggeststrutural approahes to reduing vulnerability.

Mik Day and Sean Chenoweth examine the impliations of envir-

onmental hange on karst (limestone) landsapes in the Caribbean


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(hapter 5). Covering more than half the total land area of the insular

Caribbean, karst landsapes are vulnerable beause of their unique

hydrology. This is partiularly notable in areas prone to flooding or inareas where there has been exessive abstration from the groundwater

aquifer. The authors illustrate the sensitivity of karst to human inter-

ferene through examples from Jamaia and elsewhere. Day and

Chenoweth onlude by pointing to the urgent need for more researh

into the environmental response of Caribbean karst lands to limati

and anthropi hange.

Elizabeth Thomas-Hope and Adonna Jardine-Comrie (hapter 6)

onsider the question of environmental valuation in response to ever-inreasing tourism. Using the Jamaian tourist industry as a ase study,

they investigate the environmental impliations of ontinuing tourism

development. Central to their argument is the inreasing vulnerability

of the physial environment in the fae of pressures reated by resoure

use. Inreased CO2 emissions, water pollution and effluent are just some

of the pressures on the natural environment whih require areful evalu-

ation, partiularly when set against the onsequenes of deforestation.

The authors argue that only when appropriate payments (in ash or in

kind) are made by user industries, suh as tourism, an environmental

vulnerability be managed appropriately.

Kemi George (hapter 7) onsiders the ase of biodiversity man-

agement in Cokpit Country, Jamaia, using epistemi ommunities

knowledge-based networks of individuals as the key ators in developing

effetive poliy for biodiversity management. The bauxite industry

rep-resents the most signifiant anthropogeni environmental threat toCokpit Country, while agriultural degradation is urrently the most

signifiant issue related to the effets of that industry on land manage-

ment. He onludes that epistemi ommunity members adopt different

frames for ommuniating internally and with poliy makers, empha-

sizing the eologial value and the eonomi value of biodiversity

management respetively. This divergene of emphasis, George argues,

signifiantly weakens the ability of the epistemi ommunities to

persuade poliy makers to adopt environmental friendly approahes,not least due to their imperfet employment of ost-benefit analysis.

In the final hapter in this setion (hapter 8), Susan Otuokon and

Shauna-Lee Chai present the work of the Jamaia Conservation and


31/410


Development Trust, and other organizations, in managing the Blue and

John Crow Mountains National Park, from the perspetive of oping with

global hanges and their impat on vulnerable natural and soial environ-ments. They share experienes and lessons learned, making reommenda-

tions for approahes to plan, implement, monitor and evaluate adaptation

strategies. Key to the suess of mitigation is the maintenane of a oherent

eologial buffer zone between the ore national park and the surrounding

agriultural landsape. This requires areful o-management with farm-

ers to develop and implement farming tehniques that provide adequate

inome generation alongside effetive watershed protetion.

The hallenge of managing vulnerable environments in the Caribbeanregion is signifiant beause tropial SIDS are haraterized by fragile

eosystems diretly and indiretly impated by intensive human ativities

in relatively onfined geographial spaes. The regions population distri-

bution is suh that the oastal zone is partiularly vulnerable, not only in

the islands, but also in the littoral regions of South and Central Ameria.

It is noteworthy that four of the top ten nations in the world with the

highest share of their population living in the low-elevation oastal zone

(LECZ) are in the Caribbean region: the Bahamas (with 88 per ent of

its population living in the LECZ), Suriname (76 per ent), Guyana (55

per ent) and Belize (40 per ent) (MGranahan, Balk and Anderson

2007). It is worth noting additionally that this ranking exludes ountries

with a total population of under 100,000 people or a total area smaller

than 1,000 square kilometres. If these ountries were inluded, the

Cayman Islands and Turks and Caios Islands would be in the top

five with more than 90 per ent of their populations living in the LECZ.Coastal vulnerability is partiularly aute in Guyana, where the

majority of the population live in the oastal zone. Thus, Williams and

Johnson-Bholas ase study of the major 2005 flooding events in

Guyana builds on earlier pioneering researh by Pelling (2003a, 2003b).

In order to build up a broad piture of oastal vulnerability in the

region, CDERA (the Caribbean Disaster Emergeny Relief Ageny) has

produed a series of ountry reports that doument oastal hazards,

hazard maps and vulnerability assessments as part of its CaribbeanHazard Mitigation Capaity Building Programme (http://www.dera.

org/projets/adm/dos/). Rowe, Khan and Robinsons study of boulder

arrays in oastal sites around Jamaia provides additional sientifi data


32/410


on the potential threats posed by storms and tsunamis, and this study

helps to ontribute to suh regional data bases.

Caribbean oastal environments are not only vulnerable to environ-mental hazards but are often degraded through the impat of tourist

development. For example, large areas of oastal wetlands have been

irrevoably lost to tourism and resort developments in plaes like

Antigua (Lorah 1995). Thus, the arguments regarding the need to alu-

late and inorporate a monetary value for environmental servies in

the oastal zone, as posed in the hapter by Thomas-Hope and Jardine-

Comrie, have relevane to Caribbean tourism planners and the tourist

industry. This work also ontributes to the existing literature on teh-niques for natural resoures valuation (Ulibarri and Wellman 1997).

The three other hapters in this setion touh on issues relating

to Caribbean onservation. Proteted areas and national parks have

beome important tools for managing vulnerable environments and

the Caribbean Natural Resoures Institute (CANARI) based in Trinidad

has been partiularly ative in advoating and monitoring various par-

tiipatory and o-management approahes to proteted area manage-

ment in the eastern Caribbean (Krishnarayan, Geoghegan and Renard

2002; see also Conway and Lorah 1995). Otuokon and Chais hapter

on the progress and management problems in a Jamaian national

park thus ontributes further insights to the Caribbean experienes in

proteted area management. Proteted area status is also relevant for a

number of unique karst environments in the region. Days work over

the last two deades has systematially doumented Caribbean karst

and hampioned the idea of proteting limestone upland regions (forexample, see Day 2007). The Day and Chenoweth hapter here is

another milestone in this impressive literature on Caribbean karst.

Generally speaking, Caribbean environmental issues have reeived

well-merited media attention during the last ouple of deades, and

the environmental lobby has beome muh more influential, though

its influene on environmental and development poliies is not easy

to deipher. However, it is important in disussing the impats of

partiular development projets on vulnerable environments to gobeyond tehnial environmental impat assessments, whih an be

ontroversial. Valuable insights on the roles and tatis of environ-

mentalists, developers and property owners, development planners


33/410


and politiians an deepen our understanding of the politis of the

environment and development. Yet, in the Caribbean, suh studies are

few and far between. One example is Slettos (1998, 2002) researh onthe Nariva Swamp in Trinidad where he used a politial eology frame-

work to analyse resoure onflits between large rie growers, and the

onservationists who sided with small farmers and artesenal fishermen.

In this volume, Georges disussion of the ontroversy over bauxite min-

ing in Cokpit Country provides another rare and valuable insight into

disourses on Caribbean environmental issues. Similar studies are pos-

sible on a range of environmental management topis, ranging from the

many ontroversial tourist resort developments at sensitive oastal sitesto ountry-speifi issues, suh as the pollution aused by both large-

sale and small-sale gold mining in Guyana (Roopnarine 2006).

Vulnerability and Domestic Food Supply

The three papers in this setion fous on food seurity issues and illustrate

generi problems in an era of environmental hange, in the partiular

ontext of Jamaia. Again, firstly we omment on the speifi hapters in

the setion, and then we broaden the disussion to the wider Caribbean.

Dunan MGregor, David Barker and Donovan Campbell briefly

review reent limati trends in the Caribbean Basin, with partiular

referene to Jamaia (hapter 9). The impliations of these trends

for Jamaias agriulture are outlined. In reent years, domesti food

prodution has been disrupted in Jamaia by the impat of suessivehurrianes and drought onditions. The parish of St Elizabeth, one of

the prinipal small farming regions in the ountry, whih supplies both

the domesti market and the tourist industry, has been partiularly badly

affeted. A survey of small farmers in southern setions of the parish

douments the varying impats of multiple hazards on food prodution

in the period from 2004 to 2006. Although assistane was theoretially

in plae, farmers reported signifiant problems in aessing government

assistane. In this agriulturally marginal zone, a thorough review ofrelief strutures is urgently required.

In a parallel paper, Clinton Bekford and Steve Bailey also onsider

small-sale farmers on Jamaias southern oast (hapter 10). They


34/410


onsider the hallenges faed by small farmers in ompeting against

foreign food imports. Their surveys demonstrate that, in strengthening

the apaity of loal farmers to ompete, aess to land and aess tofinanial support are the prinipal onstraints. A lak of institutional sup-

port in the marketing and distribution of food exaerbates the domesti

food farmers problems. The authors propose that poliies are required

onsistent with the priniple of food sovereignty, a onept developed in

the early 1990s by Via Campesina, an organization of farmers groups

in Latin Ameria and Europe, whih invests domesti food farmers with

ontrol over the prodution and marketing of their rops. This implies a

muh more foused trade system, one whih does not ompromise loalagriulture and removes barriers to small farmer viability.

Kevon Rhiney looks in more detail at the relationships between

Jamaian small farmers and the tourist industry (hapter 11). He points

out that relatively few ontemporary studies are being made on the

linkages between tourism and domesti agriulture. He argues that at

present domesti agriulture is underdeveloped, having been in pro-

gressive deline over the past thirty years. He analyses the relationship

between farmers (inluding agriultural o-operatives), and highlights

the advantages of o-operation in the fae of ompetition from imported

produe and the quality demands of the tourist industry. The inreasing

exposure of tourists to Jamaian uisine provides an opportunity for the

development of nihe markets.

While the empirial studies in this setion fous on Jamaia, the

issues that are raised have impliations for food seurity and food

supply aross the region. All Caribbean islands are prone to tropialstorms whih, from a regional perspetive, inflit millions of dollars of

damage annually to agriulture. Speifi events, like Hurriane Georges

in 1998 and Hurriane Ivan in 2004, were atastrophi in their impats

on the agriultural setors for the islands they struk. While aggregate

national data on agriultural setor damage are generated after suh

disasters, detailed loal studies of hazard impats on rural peoples

livelihoods, and their ability to ope with suh disasters, as reported

here by MGregor, Barker and Campbell, are generally absent from theCaribbean literature. Yet detailed ommunity-level empirial researh

is needed to inform poliy makers about loal impats to allow them

to mobilize reovery efforts. For example, the magnitude of Hurriane


35/410


Ivans atastrophi impat on Grenada was quite unpreedented in

the regions post-independene hurriane experiene. Ivan destroyed,

among other things, the entire banana rop and 60 per ent of theountrys nutmeg trees. Both were important export rops produed

mainly by small farmers who depended on them as major inome

soures (Brierley 1988). Bananas an be replanted and harvested within

twelve months, posing medium-term problems for vulnerability and

reovery, but the slow reovery of nutmeg (up to ten years for new

trees to bear) means vulnerability and adjustment an have long term

impliations. It will be a long time before Grenada regains its status as

the worlds seond largest nutmeg exporter and its small farmers areable, one more, to rely on nutmeg as a dependable inome soure.

Bekford and Baileys onerns about the impat of food imports

in Jamaia are also relevant aross the region beause all territories

have been impated by liberalization of the food trade (Thomas-Hope

and Jardine-Comrie 2007). Only Guyana and Belize, in the anglophone

Caribbean, are net exporters of food, and the gap between food

imports and agriultural exports for other territories is over 60 per

ent over 80 per ent for Antigua and St Kitts/Nevis (Deep Ford

and Rawlins 2007). The two latter ountries have made the transition

from export agriulture to tourism, thus heightening their vulnerability

to food imports in order to satisfy tourist demands. In turn, food

import dependene for tourist islands undersores the regional signifi-

ane of potential linkages between tourism and agriulture. Momsens

(1998) insightful paper on the topi was an important signal of emerg-

ing trends, and Rhineys hapter, in this volume, provides new dataon the artiulation of linkages between tourism and agriulture in

Jamaia. Clearly there is a need for further, detailed empirial ase

studies from other tourist islands to ompare ountry experienes and

help formulate appropriate poliy support in this important field.

Urban Vulnerability and Urban Change

It has been known for some time (for example, see Potter 1995) that the

Caribbean is haraterized by a high degree of urbanization. Another

harateristi is a high degree of urban primay, with ountries suh


36/410


as Jamaia having greater than 50 per ent of the population in a few

major ities, partiularly the apital. Urban areas in the region at as

foi for investment (Dodman 2007, 2008) and ulture (Jaffe 2008), yetalso fae a variety of soial and environmental hallenges (Dodman

2004, Jaffe 2006). The effets of this marked population onentration

on the Caribbean environment are wide-ranging and widespread (for

some examples, see MGregor and Potter 1997). This setion adds to

the ase studies on urban sustainability from Barbados, St Luia and

the US Virgin Islands, reported in MGregor, Barker and Lloyd Evans

(1998), and the hapters explore urban vulnerability in a time of rapid

and inreasing urbanization.Colin Clarke opens this setion by looking at the nature and develop-

ment of urban vulnerability in Kingston, Jamaia (hapter 12). Clarke

traes the nature and development of multiple deprivation in Kingstons

downtown areas, based on a omparison of indiators of multiple

deprivation in 1960 and in 1991, the last date for whih small-sale

ensus information is available. Clarkes analysis demonstrates not

only the very signifiant population inrease in slum/ghetto population

between 1960 and 1991, but also an inreasing raial ghettoization

in the areas of multiple deprivation.

David Dodman ontinues the theme of urban vulnerability in Kingston

(hapter 13), but fouses on an examination of the assets utilized by the

urban poor in Waterhouse, an eonomially deprived ommunity in West

Kingston. These assets, whih inlude labour, housing, skills and soial

networks, are used by residents in a variety of reative ways to ahieve

livelihoods and build resiliene to vulnerability. Dodman points to theneed to failitate the industry of poor urban residents who have al-

ready devised sophistiated strategies to address their own vulnerability.

David Howard examines reent urban planning initiatives in the

Dominian Republi and notes that that these have shifted from produ-

ing material infrastrutural hange to a greater emphasis on onfronting

ivil disorder via the formation of voluntary ommunity assoia-

tions (hapter 14). Drawing on interviews with residents, ativists and

government employees assoiated with the barrios carenciados in thenorthern setor of Santo Domingo, Howard addresses the relationship

between territorial violene and fear, demographi hange, and urban

governane in neighbourhoods inreasingly assoiated with violent rime.


37/410


Rivke Jaffe approahes the issue of peoples vulnerability in islands

suh as Jamaia and Curaao by examining the lash between the

green global ideologial landsape of NGO and government atorsattempting to preserve fragile eosystems, as well as the ontraditory

idea of blighted itysapes as experiened by residents in polluted urban

areas (hapter 15). It is in this area, she argues, that eologial vulner-

ability merges with soial vulnerability. The hapter analyses the ways

in whih different ators make strategi use of various media to impose

their visions of Caribbean environments, and onludes by exploring

the possibilities for reoniling soial and eologial vulnerabilities.

In onluding this setion, Hebe Verrest (hapter 16) demonstrates,through extensive household surveys, that despite ontrasting soio-

eonomi environments, levels of vulnerability and well being among

poor households in Paramaribo, Suriname, and Port of Spain, Trinidad

and Tobago, the two are in fat very similar. Her researh shows that

poor people in urban areas experiene daily vulnerabilities related to

the informal labour market, tenure inseurity, and soially fragmented,

environmentally hazardous living onditions. These vulnerabilities are

ompliated by urban residents dependene on ash inome and

relations with formal institutions to fulfil daily soial-eonomi needs.

Verrests analysis uses an asset-vulnerability framework to explore

the diversity of households vulnerability.

These hapters, together with the earlier hapter by Williams and

Johnson-Bhola, illustrate that urban vulnerability takes many forms.

A fundamental fator in the vulnerability of many Caribbean primate

and seondary ities lies in their being situated in the oastal zone.As summarized by Potter et al. (2004), this developed from their roots

in serviing the plantation system and the development of olonial

administrations. But many Caribbean ities have now spread beyond

their original sites on to more vulnerable terrains. Georgetown, Guyana

(Pelling 2003a; Williams and Johnson-Bhola, this volume), illustrates

just one environmental problem flooding in the development of

ities in the oastal zone. Portmore, Jamaia, is a further example of

a dormitory settlement built in a potentially unsafe loation, susep-tible to flooding from landward and from seaward, and in a zone

of potential liquefation of soils triggered by earthquake ativity

(MGregor and Potter 1997).


38/410


Development of Caribbean ities has often, despite the best efforts

of administration, been poorly ontrolled. The spetrum ranges from

the strong ontrol of the Cuban government on the development ofHavana to the ontrasting situation of Port-au-Prine in Haiti, where

unontrolled development has led to progressive breakdown of infra-

struture, servies and effetive governane. The problems assoiated

with the reent rapid and variably ontrolled urbanization of Caribbean

ities, in soieties that are already highly urbanized (Potter et al. 2004),

inlude road ongestion, air pollution, stresses on servies, employment

and housing defiits. Overoming these problems requires a range of

approahes suh as are illustrated herein.The need to identify eonomi and ethni patterns, in order to

better manage urban vulnerability, is shown by the work of Clarke and

Verrest. The linkages between urban deprivation and siting within the

ity an be seen as ritial. Clarkes detailed analysis highlights areas

of multiple deprivation in Kingston, Jamaia, while Howards ethno-

graphi work in Santa Domingo, Dominian Republi, points to the

need for loser relationships between poliing and self-poliing to help

resolve issues of inner-ity rime.

However, despite the multiple problems enountered by inner ity

dwellers, Dodmans analysis of the assets utilized by an inner-ity om-

munity in Kingston shows how residents an be resoureful and reative

in seeking out and utilizing livelihood opportunities. Soial apital is

learly important in these ommunities, as is a better understanding

by deision-makers of peoples pereption of their own situation.

Reoniling the sometimes-opposing pereptions of residents and gov-ernane is ritial, as demonstrated eloquently by Jaffe.

Beyond Caribbean Vulnerability: Towards Resistance

and Resilience

In hapter 17, the editors have drawn together the major themes of

the volume and ommented on their diretion in terms of a researhagenda. This synthesis is not in any sense omprehensive, but it reflets

our individual authors perspetives and our interpretation of them. The

key issues disussed in moving forward with a better understanding of


39/410


Caribbean vulnerability inlude sales/dimensions of vulnerability, the

politial eology of vulnerability and future diretions for vulnerability

researh. Whereas a better understanding of vulnerability helps reog-nize the dimensions of the problem, a fous on resistane and resiliene

direts us towards appropriate ways to address vulnerability. In this

hapter, we reflet on sales, politial eology, and future diretions for

researh into resiliene. Refleting the plea by the Hon. Omar Davies

(foreword), we onlude by looking at pratial interventions for redu-

ing vulnerability and inreasing resiliene, interventions whih have

been proposed by the hapters in this book, in order to bridge the gap

between aademi researh and pratial poliy.

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C H A P T E R 2

Caribbean Vulnerability

Development of an AppropriateClimatic Framework

D O U G L A S G A M B L E

Introduction

The issue of the vulnerability of Caribbean small island developing states

(SIDS) is frequently discussed within a framework of global climate

change. Many scholars link the outcomes of potential atmospheric

warming and sea level rise to an increase in vulnerability across the

Caribbean (for examples, see Granger 1997; Pelling and Uito 2001).

Specific impacts of climate change on Caribbean SIDS can include land

submergence, beach erosion, increased storm flooding, high water tables

and reduced fresh water supply (Leatherman and Beller-Sims 1997).

Such changes alone may pose a serious challenge to governments and

planners, but when such environmental problems are combined with

the SIDS characteristics of small size, limited range of natural resources,

susceptibility to natural hazards, fragile ecosystems, isolation, exten-sive land/sea interface per unit area and susceptibility of economies to

external shocks, the ability of many Caribbean SIDS to adapt to climate

change is open to debate (Maul 1996; Nurse and Sem 2001).


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Douglas Gamble 23

One major obstacle in assessing the vulnerability of Caribbean SIDS

to climate change is the difficulty of applying climate change projections

to specific locations. Limitations of existing atmosphere-ocean coupledglobal circulation models (A-OGCMs) and the ever-evolving know-

ledge of climate change create an unfinished framework within which

to set the issue of Caribbean vulnerability. Without such an appropriate

climatic framework, assessment of this vulnerability is incomplete,

and unable to offer realistic planning and mitigation strategies for

climate change. The purpose of this chapter is to outline a starting

point from which researchers and officials can move towards the

development of an appropriate climatic framework that can be usedto assess and address Caribbean SIDS vulnerability. The chapter will

focus upon four key issues that must be addressed in order to construct

an appropriate climatic framework: (1) a review of current literature

concerning observed climate change in the Caribbean; (2) a review

of current projections of climate change for the Caribbean; (3) a

discussion of the limits of current climate change projections; and (4)

a presentation of an example of how geographic research of climatic

phenomena, in this case the Caribbean mid-summer drought, can

be combined with existing climate change knowledge to create a

more appropriate climatic framework in which to address and assess

Caribbean vulnerability.

Observed Climate Trends in the Caribbean

Temperature

In terms of observed global temperature change, the IPCCs third report

(TAR) (Houghton et al. 2001) indicates that the global average sur-

face temperature has increased by about 0.6C since 1900, and average

night-time daily minimum air temperatures over land, between 1950

and 1993, have increased by about 0.2C per decade. The recently

released IPCC fourth report (FAR) (Solomon et al. 2007) indicates thateleven of the last twelve years (19952006) rank among the twelve

warmest years in the instrumental record of global surface temperature

since 1850. Further, the updated hundred-year linear trend (1906 to


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24 Caribbean Vulnerability

2005) is 0.74C, as compared to the TAR trend of 0.6C, and the linear

warming trend over the last fifty years is nearly twice that for the last

one hundred years.Observations for the Caribbean region tend to agree with these

observed global trends in the twentieth century. Overall, the IPCC

TAR indicates that Caribbean islands have experienced an increase in

temperature exceeding 0.5C in the twentieth century with tempera-

tures increasing by as much as 0.1C per decade (Nurse and Sem 2001).

The more recent FAR indicates that new observations and reanalyses

support this trend (Solomon et al. 2007). Singh (1997) indicates that

the Caribbean temperature has been increasing at a somewhat higherrate, approaching 1C for the twentieth century. In reviewing observa-

tions of temperature extremes for the Caribbean, Peterson et al. (2002)

concluded that extreme intra-annual temperature range is decreasing,

the number of very warm days and nights is increasing dramatically, and

the number of very cool days and nights is decreasing.

Temperature trends have been identified for specific Caribbean

locations and are listed in table 2.1. An increase in extreme warm

temperatures, particularly in the winter, and little change in min-

imum temperature has been observed on New Providence and Long

Island, Bahamas since 1905 (Martin and Weech 2001). Granger (1995)

completed analysis of change in mean annual temperature for

multiple locations across the Caribbean (San Juan, Puerto Rico;

Kingston, Jamaica; Nassau, Bahamas; Raizet, Guadeloupe and

Maracaibo, Venezuela) and found an increase at all locations except

Maracaibo (table 2.1). Singh (1997) found mean annual temperature,since the 1950s, increasing at three locations in Trinidad (Piarco, Hollis

Reservoir, Penal) (table 2.1). Aparicio (1993), based upon data records

from 1951 to 1986, found temperature to be increasing by 0.1C per

decade along the north coast of Venezuela. Thus it is clear that the

majority of the evidence indicates air temperature in the Caribbean has

been increasing in the twentieth century, particularly since the 1950s.

However, the rate at which such an increase is occurring is not con-

sistent across the region, with some locations indicating a short termdecrease in temperature.


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25

Table 2.1 Temperature Trends Identified in Previous Literature for Specific

Caribbean Locations

Station LocationPeriod ofAnalysis

TemperatureVariable Studied

TemperatureChange

New Providence,

Bahamasa19052000 JanuaryJanuary

extreme maximum

temperature

3.7C/100

years

New Providence,

Bahamasa19052000 JulyJanuary

extreme maximum

temperature

3.3C/100

years

Kingston,

Jamaicab19401990 Mean annual

temperature

0.7C

Maracaibo,

Venezuelab19501990 Mean annual

temperature

0.3C

Nassau,

Bahamasb19401990 Mean annual

temperature

0.4C

Raizet,

Guadeloupeb19501990 Mean annual

temperature

1.3C

San Juan,

Puerto Ricob19401990 Mean annual

temperature

2.3C

Piarco,

Trinidadc19461995 Mean annual

temperature

0.5C

Hollis Reservoir,


temperature

1.0C

Penal,


temperature

1.1C

Coastal

Venezuelad19511986 Mean annual

temperature

0.1C/decade

Sources: aMartin and Weech 2001; bGranger 1995; cSingh 1997; dAparicio 1993.


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26 Caribbean Vulnerability

Precipitation

A global trend in precipitation over the past century is difficult to ascer-tain due to significant regional variability. However, more intense and

longer droughts have been observed over large areas of the world since

the 1970s, and the frequency of heavy precipitation events has increased

over most land areas (Solomon et al. 2007). In terms of the Caribbean,

identification of significant trends in precipitation can be much more

difficult as compared to temperature, given precipitations high natural

variability within the region. Further, identification of trends becomes

even more difficult since it appears that one result of climate changein the Caribbean is an increase in this already high precipitation vari-

ability. Nurse and Sem (2001) report that, since 1900, there has been a

significant increase in rainfall variability with mean annual total rainfall

declining by approximately 250 millimetres for Caribbean islands. Gray

(1993) found a weak indication that rainfall is decreasing across the

Caribbean. Taylor, Enfield and Chen (2002) also found a decrease in

precipitation for the Caribbean with a marked negative trend starting

in the 1960s. In an analysis of climate extremes in the Caribbean from

1958 to 1999, Peterson et al. (2002) found that the number of heavy

rain events is increasing, and the number of consecutive dry days is

decreasing.

In an analysis of eastern Caribbean (Lesser Antilles) precipitation,

Walsh (1998) found large-scale changes in annual rainfall, dry season

characteristics, drought and heavy rainfall magnitude-frequency, cyclone

frequency and cyclone tracks over the past 130 to 150 years. Oscilla-tions between dry and wet periods dominate the area with low rainfall

between 1899 and 1928, higher rainfall between 1929 and 1958, and

very low rainfall since 1959. This current dry period is characterized

by a mean annual rainfall 10 to 20 per cent lower than between 1929

and 1958, with a longer dryer season, more frequent extreme droughts

and fewer large rainstorms. One reason for this dry period is the sharp

reduction in tropical cyclone activity. Is should be noted that Walshs

research was published before the recent increase in Caribbean tropicalcyclone activi

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