Global challenges in the nuclear sector, BREXATOM and

new build: what do these mean for nuclear energy’s role in

the UK in 2050?

Dame Sue Ion FREng FRS

Hon President

National Skills Academy for Nuclear (NSAN)

"Decarbonising UK energy:: Effective technology and

policy options for achieving a zero-carbon future”

• What works

• What doesn’t work

• What needs to be done

In terms of nuclear energy.........

As they say:- a week is a long time in politics –and we’ve had

several of them!......What next for the UK Nuclear Sector?

• Strengths

• Challenges and

• Opportunities

To understand what the future might hold..........

• We need to understand where our journey has led us so far

And

• Where we sit in the global nuclear world

Sodium-cooled fast reactors

DFR

PFR

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

Present

Gas-cooled reactorsMagnox

AGR

Water-cooled reactors

SGHWR

Sizewell B PWR

HTR 1965-1976

Civil nuclear power: UK

1959

1977

1974

1994

1967

1990

1995

1976

1956

Why BREXATOM Matters:

3 Major issues to deal with

• Safeguards and security: replacing Euratom with the ONR and IAEA

• The European Supply Agency and the need for Nuclear Cooperation Agreements/Treaties

• Research

Teresa May

Florence speech21 Sept 2017

What about Nuclear Energy and Medicine?

Nuclear medicine uses radiation to provide diagnostic information about

the functioning of a person's specific organs, or to treat them.

Diagnostic procedures using radioisotopes are now routine.

Radiotherapy can be used to treat some medical conditions, especially

cancer, using radiation to weaken or destroy particular targeted cells.

Over 40 million nuclear medicine procedures are performed each year,

and demand for radioisotopes is increasing at up to 5% annually.

Sterilization of medical equipment is also an important use of

radioisotopes.

BONE SCINTIGRAPHY with Tc99m pyrophosphate

Ant view Post view Ant view Post view

Normal images Multiple metastasis of prostate cancer

Y-90

• 430 plants in operation, in 31 countries

• Providing 11% of the world’s power

• 70 being built in 13 countries notably China, India, South Korea and Russia

• 179 on order or planned

• A further 308 proposed

• Major steps being taken in the US, France, and elsewhere

• Significant further capacity being created by plant upgrading. Plant Life Extensions maintaining capacity

Nuclear Fission Around the World

Source: World Nuclear Association & IAEA PRIS database, as at 2017

China

• Huge energy growth 37 operating

reactors

• 20 reactors under construction

• 5-6 fold growth planned by 2020

to at least 58GWe

– 4% of electricity

Then 150GWe by 2030 and

400 by 2050?

• NPT member, potential Asian

supplier

• Actively developing most

advanced systems

UK’s strength, challenge and opportunity Knowledge of many systems: Funding gap/ lack of direction: Failure to grasp opportunity?

Plus Many More! –Maybe!

Current Planned Potential

UK has Experience of Commercial Scale Reprocessing and the

Associated Development: will the closure of Thorp and the cessation of

commercial reprocessing be a wasted opportunity?

Mixer

Settlers

Pulsed

Columns

Sellafield

Reprocessing , Waste management

And decommissioning

Springfields

Fuel Manufacture

Capenhurst

Enrichment

From Full Fuel Cycle Industrial Experience to just Front End and Decommissioning?

Waste Management and Decommissioning

AREVA EPR

Westinghouse AP1000

Hitachi ABWR

The UK’s original ambitions for new build

Olkiluoto 3 Finland & Flamanville 3 France

Flamanville 3

Olkiluoto 3

Finland

Complex

Congested

Heavy

Non-repetitive

Enormous !

Hinkley Point C

Wylfa Newydd

Kashiwazaki-Kariwa Power station Japan

Unit 6: 3/11/92 Start of Construction:18/12/95 First criticality: 7/11/96 Commissioned

Unit 7: 1/7/93 Start of Construction: 1/11/96 First criticality: 2/7/97 Commissioned

Westinghouse AP1000

China AP1000 Plant ProgressSanmen site – August 2016

Photos © Sanmen Nuclear Power Company, Ltd.; Shandong Nuclear Power Company,

Ltd., All rights reserved.

Haiyang 1 – August 2016 Haiyang 2 – August 2016

Sanmen 1 – August 2016

Moorside

APR1400Barakah

UAE

Hualong OneChina

17%

2%

25%

13%2%

41%

Capital

Decommissioning

Operations and

Maintenance

Fuel

Spent Fuel Management

Financing

Costs dominated by capital required to construct and

timescale to finances before returns flow.

Pressurised Water Reactor Capital and Finance Costs

What about Research and Fusion?

Example of significant beneficial leverage from participation in EU project

International Thermonuclear

Experimental Reactor

(ITER), the world's largest

nuclear fusion reactor

47

Maximising value from JET in the UKDEMO: when to start?: how to finance?

Making ITER a success

Confining hot plasmas

Challenges

Blanket materials and tritium handlingCoping with neutron damage

Replacing key components

Controlling the plasma

Solving heat exhaust issues

Collaborating with Japan

Preparing for advanced ITER regimes

So what next.......? Where does that leave us as a sector?

• The nuclear sector deal

• SMR’s

• Future investment in next generation technology

"Decarbonising UK energy:: Effective technology and

policy options for achieving a zero-carbon future”

• What works- If we look overseas; fleet build

• What doesn’t work- The current free market

• What needs to be done..........

What do we need?

– Fleet effect: Building a fleet of one type of reactor will achieve NOAK, reduced

build times and reduced electricity costs and contribute to decarbonisation

targets

– Owning technology: Owning IP leads to more UK content, increased GVA, jobs

and exports – industrial strategy growth targets

– Finance costs: Government intervention in financing of new build can lead to

lower interest rates with significant reduction of electricity cost

– Control of build rate: Planning a ‘regular drumbeat’ of reactors leads to supply

chain efficiency and job continuity

– Future technology and programmes - creating IP ownership and exports

– Maximising economic benefit for the UK – enhancing supply chain efficiency

– Science and Innovation – introducing disruptive innovation from nuclear and

other sectors

Integrating into the Nuclear Sector Deal – Key Areas

Civil Defence

Cro

ss

-cu

ttin

g t

he

me

s

Sub Divisions

Future

TechnologyNew

Build

WM

&D

Defence

Skills

Science & Innovation

Regulation

Maximising Economic Benefit

Nuclear Sector Deal

Enabling alternative

financing and fleet effect.

Enhancing supply chain

efficiency

Creating IP ownership

and exports

Introducing disruptive

innovation from nuclear and other

sectors

What about Small Modular Reactors?

What’s happened to the proposed UK initiative?

What about Advanced Systems generally?

Opportunities – Small Modular Reactors• Drastically reduced cost of capital (compared to large reactors)

– Smaller designs maximise the extent to which construction can be undertaken in a

controllable factory setting using 21st century manufacturing techniques.

– Capital cost per item is greatly reduced.

– Shorter construction periods with lower risk.

• Conceived to be built in significant numbers enabling cost reduction to be achieved by

learning through doing (in contrast to small numbers of large reactors).

• SMRs can be built on sites not suitable for larger reactors.

• A flexible means of continuing to deliver a baseload of low carbon energy to complement

renewables.

• The easiest opportunity for UK manufacturers to gain entry to a reactor market.

– No established global suppliers

– Potential for a large global market

– Benefit of being first to market

• The SMRs that are closest to market are all PWRs – not novel technology,

though can be novel configuration in some cases.

1. Range of SMR designs

NuScale

CNEA

CAREM

Holtec

SMR160

Martingale

ThorCon

Moltex Energy

SSR

B&W

mPower

CNNC

ACP-100

KAERI

SMART

Thorium100

HTMR100Urenco

U-Battery

Westinghouse

SMR

X-Energy

Xe100(Not to scale)

Moltex Stable Salt Reactor

Heat Applications & Temperatures:

The Potential for Dual Mission Nuclear Plants

The Potential Market… > 600 Reactors?

Petroleum Refining (50-

100)Petrochemical

(150)

Fertilizers/Ammonia

(100+)

Coal-to-Liquids

(100s)Oil Sands/Shale

(200+)

MICRO Reactor Opportunity

U-Battery • Micro nuclear modular reactor.

• Provides local power and heat (800°C).

• Single unit 10MWt, 4MWe.

• Fits in volume of two squash courts.

• Overall installation has 60 year life.

• Gas cooled, helium in primary circuit, helium/nitrogen in secondary circuit driving turbine.

• Inherently safe TRISO fuel (up to 20% enriched 235-U).

• Fuel cartridge lasts five years.

• Spent fuel cartridge fits in international standard Excellox spent fuel transport flask.

National Nuclear R&D Programme

Fuel

2020 2025

Advanced

Reactors

Recycle

Technology

Waste

Management

Fuel

Research

Facilities

Advanced Fuel

Pin ready for

Irradiation

Accident tolerant

and more efficient

fuel commercialised

UK is key

partner in the

development of

advanced systems

UK to be a

supplier of

significant reactor

components

Recycle

Research

Facilities

Lab scale of a safe,

economic and efficient

advanced recycle tech.

using surrogate materials

Lab scale of a safe,

economic and efficient

advanced recycle tech.

using spent fuel

Waste

Research

Facilities

Develop

technologies for

Advanced recycle

Demonstrate

immobilisation

technology leading

to hot cell testing

Gen IV

Reactors

UK is key

partner in the

development of

advanced systems

National Nuclear R&D Programme

Modelling

Simulation

2020 2025

Control and

Instrumentation

Robotics

Validation &

Verification

Integrated

Modelling

and simulation

capability

New codes that

make the UK a

leading nation

Activities completed

that support the uptake

of modern I&C within

industry and the regulator

Developed Advanced Robotics

Automated Systems

and Remote Handling

Capability

World class test facilities

supporting validation and

verification est.

Thermal Hydraulics and Physics

Testing

Gen IV

Reactors

Develop Advanced C&I Systems

National Nuclear R&D Programme

Strategic

Assessments

2020 2025

Public

Engagement

Technology

Watch

Developed and demonstrated

appropriate tools to evaluate potential

fuel cycles to shape future research

programmes

Tools identified to

communicate

effectively

with the public

Consistently review and evaluate potential technologies which

show benefits to the UK

Tools and

Techniques routinely

used to engage

public Gen IV

Reactors

We can be World Class and Top Table again

but not if we pursue the current policy

World-Leading Research Facilities

Advanced Manufacturing Research and Innovation

NNLCentral Laboratory

What needs to be done?

• Use less bits

• Take less time

• Build a fleet of the same design

• Borrow the money cheaply

• Jump a technology generation

Thankyou. Questions?

Hornsea 2 Windfarm

£57.50/MWhstrike price

1386MW capacity3 Phases

6-15MW Turbines

Hornsea 1 Windfarm

£140/MWhStrike price1200MW capacity:174 7MW turbines: 407 km²

Assumed generic load factor of

42%