Glimpses of the Future - Cedarville University/media/Files/PDF/CCCU-Conference/...Glimpses of the...
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Glimpses of the FutureGlimpses of the FutureDavid Cossey, Union College (NY)David Cossey, Union College (NY)
CCCU Technology Conference 2006CCCU Technology Conference 2006Cedarville UniversityCedarville University
Cedarville, OhioCedarville, Ohio
Thursday Thursday -- June 1, 2006June 1, 2006
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www1.union.edu/~cosseydwww1.union.edu/~cosseyd
The The pdfpdf files for the slides are files for the slides are available at the address available at the address
aboveabove
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David V. CosseyDavid V. CosseyBA, The KingBA, The King’’s Colleges CollegeMA, Lehigh UniversityMA, Lehigh UniversityMS, University of Rhode IslandMS, University of Rhode Island
Chief Information Officer, Union Chief Information Officer, Union College (NY)College (NY)Director of Computing and Director of Computing and Instructional Technology, The Instructional Technology, The Wharton School at the University of Wharton School at the University of PennsylvaniaPennsylvaniaBarrington College, Director of Barrington College, Director of Computer ServicesComputer Services
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Union CollegeUnion CollegeSchenectady, New YorkSchenectady, New York
www.union.eduwww.union.edu
Founded 1795Founded 17952,100 students2,100 studentsLiberal ArtsLiberal ArtsEngineering programs since 1845Engineering programs since 1845InnovativeInnovative
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OutlineOutline
PreliminariesPreliminariesWhere have we come Where have we come from?from?Where are we?Where are we?Where are we going?Where are we going?““Are we there yet?Are we there yet?””
66Library of Congress-April 16, 2002
“Nothing could be more misleading than the claim that computer technology introduced the age of information.
The printing press began that age in the early sixteenth century. . . .
Fifty years after the press was invented, more than eight million books had been printed, almost all of them filled with information that had previously been unavailable to the average person.” Neil Postman
in Technolopoly,p. 61
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Going,Going,GoingGoing
Gone!Gone!
So that we put things in So that we put things in perspectiveperspective
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GoingGoing
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Going Going -- Slide Projectors and . . .Slide Projectors and . . .
. . . and APS camerasTimes-Union, January 14, 2004
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A last look?A last look?
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GoneGone
Records Records –– 33 1/3, 33 1/3, 4545’’s, 78s, 78’’ss88--track tapetrack tape
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GOING?? GOING?? -- Reading at RiskReading at Risk
http://www.arts.gov/pub/ReadingAtRisk.pdf
““Reading at Risk: A Survey of Literary Reading in AmericaReading at Risk: A Survey of Literary Reading in America””National Endowment for the ArtsNational Endowment for the Arts
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Decline in Book Sales Decline in Book Sales --20032003
23 million fewer books 23 million fewer books sold in 2003 over 2002sold in 2003 over 20022.222 Billion books in 2.222 Billion books in 200320032.245 Billion books in 2.245 Billion books in 20022002Greater competition Greater competition ––““magazines, cable radio, magazines, cable radio, music and moviesmusic and movies””Times-Union, Sunday, May 16, 2004, page J5
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From From ComputerWorldComputerWorld55--2222--20062006
in celebration of the 2000in celebration of the 2000thth issueissue
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Some PreliminariesSome Preliminaries
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““How Much InformationHow Much Information”” reportreport
Originally released in 2000Originally released in 2000Revised October 2003Revised October 2003From the University of California at From the University of California at BerkeleyBerkeley’’s School of Information s School of Information Management and SystemsManagement and SystemsFull report Full report –– 100 pages100 pageshttp://www.sims.berkeley.edu/researchttp://www.sims.berkeley.edu/research/projects/howh/projects/how--muchmuch--infoinfo--2003/2003/
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Measures of SizeMeasures of Size
1,000,000,000,000,000,000,0001,000,000,000,000,000,000,000ZettaByteZettaByte (ZB)(ZB)
1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,0001,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000YottaByteYottaByte (YB)(YB)
1,000,000,000,000,000,0001,000,000,000,000,000,000ExaByteExaByte (EB)(EB)
1,000,000,000,000,0001,000,000,000,000,000PetaBytePetaByte (PB)(PB)
1,000,000,000,0001,000,000,000,000TeraByteTeraByte (TB)(TB)
1,000,000,0001,000,000,000GigaByteGigaByte (GB)(GB)
1,000,0001,000,000MegaByteMegaByte (MB)(MB)
1,000 (actually 1,024)1,000 (actually 1,024)KiloByteKiloByte
SizeSizeTermTerm
Source: “How Much Information” report, 2000.
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Some ExamplesSome Examples2 2 PetabytesPetabytes(2,000,000,000,000,000) (2,000,000,000,000,000) -- all all US academic research librariesUS academic research libraries
5 5 ExabytesExabytes(5,000,000,000,000,000,000)(5,000,000,000,000,000,000)--all words ever spoken by human all words ever spoken by human beingsbeings
Source: “How Much Information” report, 2003.
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How big is big?How big is big?
1,000 copies of the Encyclopedia 1,000 copies of the Encyclopedia Britannica Britannica 1 Terabyte 1 Terabyte (1,000,000,000,000)(1,000,000,000,000)
Source: The Internet Archive: Building an ‘Internet Library’ – December 2001
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When is the When is the rightright time to time to deploy a given technology?deploy a given technology?
We are confronted with this We are confronted with this challenge all the timechallenge all the time
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When is the When is the rightright time to deploy a given time to deploy a given technology?technology?
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““. . . have to decide. . . have to decidewhen to playwhen to play””
--George HickmanGeorge HickmanCIO, Albany Medical CenterCIO, Albany Medical Center
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Technology continues to be . . . Technology continues to be . . .
Faster!Faster!cheaper!cheaper!
smaller!smaller!and bigger (capacities)!and bigger (capacities)!
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. . . and these days you can . . . and these days you can buy your personal computer buy your personal computer
almost anywherealmost anywhere
How about buying it at . . .How about buying it at . . .
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Cost per Cost per GigaByteGigaByte of hard disk spaceof hard disk space
50 cents50 centsSummer of 2003Summer of 2003
25 25 -- 35 cents35 centsSummer of 2005Summer of 2005
$2.00$2.00Summer/Fall of 2001Summer/Fall of 2001
$3.33$3.33Fall of 2000Fall of 2000
$1.00$1.00Summer/Fall of 2002Summer/Fall of 2002
$5.00$5.00Summer of 2000Summer of 2000
$10.00$10.00Summer of 1999Summer of 1999
Cost per GBCost per GBWhenWhen
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Converging DevicesConverging Devicesthat take advantage of that take advantage of ““smallnesssmallness””
combined with powercombined with power
PDAPDAPhonePhoneCameraCameraNokia 770 Nokia 770 Internet Internet tablettabletiPodiPod (5G)(5G)etc.etc.
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PalmPalmLifeDriveLifeDrive
4GB HD4GB HD320 x 480 320 x 480 resolutionresolutionWiWi--FiFiBluetoothBluetoothAudioAudioVideoVideoVoice Voice recorderrecorderCameraCameraIR portIR port$499$499
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3535Nextel/Blackberry ad – Mobile Enterprise – 10/2004, p. 9
. . . but . . . but the one the one
I like I like the the
mostmost
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. . . But we are trying to, either. . . But we are trying to, either
Put too much on a small screenPut too much on a small screenOr we are trying to adjust to the Or we are trying to adjust to the smaller image (as opposed to a 17smaller image (as opposed to a 17--inch or bigger monitor)inch or bigger monitor)
Is there a better way?Is there a better way?
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The Wearable Computer, The Wearable Computer, especially a virtual screenespecially a virtual screen
October, 2001
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Technology ReviewMIT
June, 2001Page 66
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New recording technologiesNew recording technologies
Seagate: “The shift to perpendicular recording allows it to bump upThe maximum capacity of its notebook drive to 160 GB from 120 GB
Source: Daily Gazette, January 17, 2006, page A7
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ThereThere’’s smalls small. . . and then. . . and then
therethere’’s REALLY SMALL!!!s REALLY SMALL!!!
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NanotechnologyNanotechnology
Computer Chronicles – Week of January 29, 2002
Dr. Stan Williams – Hewlett-Packard Labs Quantum Science Research Center
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Really small . . .Really small . . .
Dr. Stan Williams – Hewlett-Packard Labs Quantum Science Research Center
Computer Chronicles – Week of January 29, 2002
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From Hewlett-Packard Quantum Science Research Center website Display Galleryhttp://www.hpl.hp.com/research/qsr/
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IBMIBM’’s s ‘‘MillipedeMillipede’’ ProjectProject
Store the equivalent of 25 Store the equivalent of 25 DVDs on a surface the size DVDs on a surface the size of a postage stampof a postage stampTrillion bits per square Trillion bits per square inch inch 20 times higher 20 times higher than the densest magnetic than the densest magnetic storage available todaystorage available today
http://www.research.ibm.com/resources/news/20020611_millipede.html
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NanotechnologyNanotechnologyat Union Collegeat Union College
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Converging TechnologiesConverging Technologies(http://(http://ct.union.educt.union.edu))
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WebWeb--book for Coursebook for Course““Frontiers of NanotechnologyFrontiers of Nanotechnology””
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Anytime,Anytime,Anywhere,Anywhere,and Mobileand Mobile
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Schaffer LibrarySchaffer Library(Union College)(Union College)
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Free wirelessat
Panera Bread
FREE Wireless
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TT--mobile hotspotsmobile hotspots
Border’s, Kinko’s, airports, hotels, . . .
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LibrariesLibraries
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The Widener Library at HarvardThe Widener Library at Harvard““ . . . one of Harvard. . . one of Harvard’’s ninetys ninety--odd school odd school and departmental collections, totaling and departmental collections, totaling some 14 million volumes; taken together some 14 million volumes; taken together they make up they make up the largest academic the largest academic library the world has ever knownlibrary the world has ever known..””[Battles, p. 4][Battles, p. 4]““This library, like all research libraries of This library, like all research libraries of any size, any size, acquires more books each acquires more books each year than any of us could read in a year than any of us could read in a lifetimelifetime..”” [Battles, p. 8][Battles, p. 8]
Source: Library: An Unquiet History by Matthew Battles, pages 4, 8
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Library of CongressLibrary of Congress
Adds 7,000 books a dayAdds 7,000 books a day. . . to the more than 100 Million . . . to the more than 100 Million items already standingitems already standing. . . on its 530 miles of shelves. . . on its 530 miles of shelves
Source: Library: An Unquiet History by Matthew Battles, page 8
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1010--20 20 TeraBytesTeraBytes (from 2 different (from 2 different estimates) represents the printed estimates) represents the printed
collection of the Library of collection of the Library of CongressCongress
Source (10 TB estimate): “How Much Information” report, 2000.Source (20 TB estimate): The Internet Archive: “Building an ‘Internet Library’” Dec. 2001.
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ad from October 2003ad from October 2003
38 volumes
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Book sizes (Pages, MB, Inches)Book sizes (Pages, MB, Inches)
1.251.251.2271.227365365HBHBOrrOrr
1.001.00.433.433334334HBHBWarrenWarren
2.252.252.6962.6961,2641,264HBHBGrudemGrudem
1.001.00.432.432382382PBPBEdwardsEdwards
1.621.62.749.749574574HBHBColsonColson
0.500.50.323.323198198PBPBBerkhofBerkhof
Inches Inches (paper (paper copy)copy)
Size in Size in MBMB
Pages Pages (paper)(paper)
Paperback Paperback or or HardbackHardback
AuthorAuthor
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Library ShelvingLibrary Shelving
Three (3) feet wideThree (3) feet wideSix (6) shelves highSix (6) shelves highOne mile One mile 1,760 1,760 shelvesshelves
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Some extrapolationsSome extrapolations(based on the previous sizes)(based on the previous sizes)
530 pages per 530 pages per MegaByteMegaByte1.3 inches of shelf space per 1.3 inches of shelf space per MegaByteMegaByte
On my previous PDA (with 128 MB On my previous PDA (with 128 MB card):card):13.8 feet of books, or a little over 4 13.8 feet of books, or a little over 4 full library shelvesfull library shelves67,000 pages67,000 pages
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2,166 feet of 2,166 feet of books (20 GB) books (20 GB)
fillsfills120 library 120 library
shelving unitsshelving units
Each unit is 3 feet Each unit is 3 feet wide and there wide and there are 6 shelves in are 6 shelves in
each uniteach unit
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BookbagBookbag of the Future?of the Future?--textbooks on DVDtextbooks on DVD
NY TimesMarch 2, 2000 VitalSource Technologies
From 2001 CCCU presentation
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Vital Source TechnologiesVital Source Technologieswww.vitalbook.comwww.vitalbook.com
VitalbookVitalbook DVD DVD –– 9 GB DVD9 GB DVDDental schools Dental schools –– 250 books on DVD 250 books on DVD –– each each school licenses the ones they useschool licenses the ones they useStudents Students –– mandated laptop computer and mandated laptop computer and DVD ($1,500 for the DVD for the original 5 DVD ($1,500 for the DVD for the original 5 schools. A 4schools. A 4--year cost)year cost)DVD DVD –– updated every semester. They get to updated every semester. They get to keep the last version of the disk they keep the last version of the disk they receivedreceivedIBM has partnered with IBM has partnered with VitalSourceVitalSource
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VitalSourceVitalSource todaytodayThe The VitalSourceVitalSource BookshelfBookshelf
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Schools Without BooksSchools Without Books(IBM partners with (IBM partners with VitalSourceVitalSource))
March/April,2004
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Collaborative Collaborative TechnologiesTechnologies
““FlattenersFlatteners”” today and more today and more tomorrowtomorrow
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The World is Flat:The World is Flat:A Brief History of the A Brief History of the TwentyTwenty--First CenturyFirst Century
ByByThomas L. FriedmanThomas L. Friedman
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Chapter Two: The Ten Forces Chapter Two: The Ten Forces That Flattened The WorldThat Flattened The World
#1. 11/9/89. When the Walls Came #1. 11/9/89. When the Walls Came Down and the Windows Went UpDown and the Windows Went Up
#2. 8/9/95. When Netscape Went #2. 8/9/95. When Netscape Went PublicPublic
#3. Workflow Software. Let#3. Workflow Software. Let’’s Do s Do Lunch: Have Your application Talk Lunch: Have Your application Talk to My Applicationto My Application
#4. Open#4. Open--Sourcing. SelfSourcing. Self--organizing organizing Collaborative CommunitiesCollaborative Communities
#5. Outsourcing Y2K#5. Outsourcing Y2K
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Chapter Two: The Ten Forces Chapter Two: The Ten Forces That Flattened The WorldThat Flattened The World
#6. #6. OffshoringOffshoring. Running with Gazelles, . Running with Gazelles, Eating with LionsEating with Lions
#7. Supply#7. Supply--chaining. Eating Sushi in chaining. Eating Sushi in ArkansasArkansas
#8. #8. InsourcingInsourcing. What the guys in . What the guys in Funny Brown Shorts are Really DoingFunny Brown Shorts are Really Doing
#9. In#9. In--Forming. Google, Yahoo!, MSN Forming. Google, Yahoo!, MSN Web SearchWeb Search
#10. the Steroids. Digital, Mobile, #10. the Steroids. Digital, Mobile, PersponalPersponal and Virtualand Virtual
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Collaborations Collaborations -- OpportunitiesOpportunitiesShare staff resourcesShare staff resourcesSave travel expensesSave travel expensesShare expertiseShare expertiseMeetingsMeetingsWorkshopsWorkshopsSeminarsSeminars
In short, flatten the worldof Higher Education
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All institutionsAll institutions
Have access to an unlimited library Have access to an unlimited library of journalsof journalsHave access to unlimited reference Have access to unlimited reference works and original sourcesworks and original sourcesCoCo--develop and offer remote courses develop and offer remote courses (synchronously and asynchronously)(synchronously and asynchronously)Can sponsor meetings bringing Can sponsor meetings bringing people together without getting people together without getting togethertogether
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Asynchronous CollaborationAsynchronous Collaboration
PodcastsPodcasts and and podcastingpodcastingwikiswikis and the and the wikipediawikipediaRSS feedsRSS feedsBlogsBlogs and and bloggingblogging
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PodcastsPodcasts –– audio and videoaudio and video
dl.tv podcast
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dl.tvdl.tv (Digital Life) (Digital Life) podcastpodcast
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dl.Tvdl.Tv –– Win XP on MacWin XP on Mac
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New Apple Store in ManhattanNew Apple Store in Manhattan
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iTunesUiTunesU
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wikiswikis
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wiki
“. . . a group of Web pages that allows users to add content, . . . , but also allows others (often completely unrestricted) to edit the content.”
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WikibooksWikibooks
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WikiWiki softwaresoftware
Can have your own Can have your own wikiwikiMuch of the software is free under Much of the software is free under the General Public License (GPL)the General Public License (GPL)Usually runs on a serverUsually runs on a server
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RSS and RSS feedsRSS and RSS feeds
RSS is a technology used to quickly RSS is a technology used to quickly distribute ondistribute on--demand information to demand information to subscribers of an RSS Feed.subscribers of an RSS Feed.This information can be a simple This information can be a simple news article or even an Mp3 file news article or even an Mp3 file (called a (called a PodcastPodcast).).
Source: wikipedia article “What’s RSS”
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RSS and RSS feedsRSS and RSS feedsAn RSS feed allows an An RSS feed allows an internetinternet user to easily user to easily recieverecieve updates or new content from a website updates or new content from a website using a simple program called a using a simple program called a Feed Feed AggregatorAggregator..Feed aggregators work similar to (and are Feed aggregators work similar to (and are usually included in) modern email clients. A feed usually included in) modern email clients. A feed is usually shown as a small orange icon, such as is usually shown as a small orange icon, such as one of the following:one of the following:
Source: wikipedia article “What’s RSS”
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blogsblogs and and bloggingbloggingBlogBlog (from (from WikipediaWikipedia))
A A weblogweblog or or blogblog (derived from web + log) is a (derived from web + log) is a webweb--based publication consisting primarily of based publication consisting primarily of periodic articles (normally, but not always, in periodic articles (normally, but not always, in
reverse chronological order). Although most early reverse chronological order). Although most early blogsblogs were manually updated, tools to facilitate the were manually updated, tools to facilitate the
updating and maintenance of such sites made updating and maintenance of such sites made them accessible to a much larger and less technical them accessible to a much larger and less technical
population.population.
The use of some sort of The use of some sort of browserbrowser--based software is based software is now a typical aspect of "now a typical aspect of "bloggingblogging."."
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Blogging
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BloggingBlogging -- client software client software an RSS Readeran RSS Reader
One example One example –– PluckPluck(from (from www.pluck.comwww.pluck.com))
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from from www.pluck.comwww.pluck.com
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After adding it to my feed in PluckAfter adding it to my feed in Pluckfrom within Internet Explorerfrom within Internet Explorer
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Pluck is accessible from within Internet Explorer
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Union CollegeUnion College’’s Schaffer Librarys Schaffer Library
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Schaffer LibrarySchaffer Library’’s s BlogBlog
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Meetings (faceMeetings (face--toto--face)face)
OneOne--toto--oneoneOneOne--toto--many (example lecturing to a many (example lecturing to a group)group)ManyMany--toto--manymany
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Synchronous CollaborationSynchronous Collaborationfor for ““faceface--toto--faceface”” virtual meetingsvirtual meetings
AudioAudioAudio and videoAudio and video
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Synchronous CollaborationSynchronous Collaborationfor for ““faceface--toto--faceface”” virtual meetingsvirtual meetings
WhatWhat’’s needed (have pictures)s needed (have pictures)ComputerComputerInternet connection (preferably Internet connection (preferably broadband)broadband)Video cameraVideo cameraHeadset with microphone, or Headset with microphone, or speakers and microphonespeakers and microphoneConferencing softwareConferencing software
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An interesting applicationAn interesting application
Combining wireless and the PDACombining wireless and the PDAAugust 3, 2003August 3, 2003
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Concert CompanionConcert Companionat Saratoga Performing Arts Centerat Saratoga Performing Arts Center
Times-UnionAugust 9, 2003
ANNOUNCEMENT
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During the performanceDuring the performance
Information scrolled describing what Information scrolled describing what was taking place was taking place –– in realin real--time as time as performance was happeningperformance was happeningGave hints/information as to what Gave hints/information as to what was coming nextwas coming nextCould have summary or a more Could have summary or a more detailed descriptiondetailed description
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Increased Access . Increased Access . . .. .
. . . Increased . . . Increased OpportunitiesOpportunities
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SarahSarahMorrisMorris
Times-Union8-30-2001Pages C1, C8
www.dodgerplace.com