Glencore Interim Results 2012833e49b4-4250-4d90-aa74...2012/08/21  · Glencore Interim Results 2012...

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Glencore Interim Results 2012 21 August 2012

Transcript of Glencore Interim Results 2012833e49b4-4250-4d90-aa74...2012/08/21  · Glencore Interim Results 2012...

Page 1: Glencore Interim Results 2012833e49b4-4250-4d90-aa74...2012/08/21  · Glencore Interim Results 2012 21 August 2012 I 2 Ivan Glasenberg Chief Executive Officer I H1 2012 Highlights

Glencore Interim Results 201221 August 2012

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Ivan Glasenberg

Chief Executive Officer

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H1 2012 Highlights

Financial results supported by strong marketing performance

Adjusted EBIT $2.5bn, 24% down H1 2012 vs. H1 2011, but up 20% sequentially

– Annualised H1 2012 closely tracking FY 2011 result

– Marketing EBIT $1.12bn, down 11% on H1 2011. Energy results were below the relatively strong prior year period, offsetting the stronger performances in metals and agriculture

– Industrial EBIT down 32% to $1.4bn on H1 2011 due to materially lower average metals prices. Sequentially flat EBIT (including associates), but for consolidated operations up some 30% due to strong volume growth, particularly oil

Strong cash flow generation, with funds from operations of $1.9bn, and an Adjusted EBITDA interest cover in excess of 7.0x

Abundant liquidity with $9.0bn of committed headroom and no material refinancings in the next 12 months

Sector leading growth pipeline remains overall on time and on budget

Interim dividend of 5.4 cents per share, an 8% increase over H1 2011

– Reflects confidence in our commodity diversification, the robustness of Marketing, visibility on our brownfield assets ramp-up and the Group’s strong balance sheet

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633 609688

552

145

350

92

(100)

114

(26)

6

(37)

(200)

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

H1 2011 H2 2011 H1 2012

Solid underlying profitability in marketing against a challenging economic backdrop

Metals and Minerals

Strong performance driven by increased volumes and robust premia for physical delivery of key metals

Improved profitability, 9% year-on-year and 13% sequentially

Energy

Fewer arbitrage opportunities in energy compared to H1 2011 as a result of reduced volatility in oil and coal markets and weaker freight environment

Strongly improved profitability vs. H2 2011

Agricultural Products

Grain and oilseed volumes maintained growth trend in H1 2012, with oilseed volumes, in particular, up substantially versus H1 2011

Improved market fundamentals in key commodities since May

Profitability improved 24% year-on-year and reversion to profit sequentially, with cotton issues now firmly behind us.

H1 Financial Performance – Marketing Activities

AgricultureMetals and Minerals Energy Corporate

Adjusted EBIT H1 2012 vs. H1 2011 and H2 2011

(10.9%)1,251

1,115

660

68.9%

(US$ m)

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950

407 399

211

164 345

(17) (22) (11)

660886

908

(200)

500

1,200

1,900

2,600

H1 2011 H2 2011 H1 2012

1,345

777 832

305

266528

13

10

21

660

908

886

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

H1 2011 H2 2011 H1 2012

H1 Financial Performance – Industrial Activities

Core growth projects continue to deliver and remain on track and within budget

Metals and Minerals

EBIT reduction compared to 2011 primarily driven by the negative impact of sovereign and macroeconomic concerns on metal prices

Production performance ahead of schedule at Mutanda, offset by some ramp-up delays at Katanga and Kazzinc

Flat sequential performance

Energy

Substantially improved performance with EBIT up 64% on 2011 driven by first full half year of production from the Aseng oil field and to a lesser extent, strong coal volume growth

Agricultural Products

Results affected by sugar cane harvest delays

Adjusted EBIT H1 2012 vs. H1 2011 and H2 2011(US$ m)

(32.1%)2,052

1,393

AgricultureMetals and Minerals Energy Corporate (Including Xstrata)

1,435 (2.9%)

Adjusted EBITDA H1 2012 vs. H1 2011 and H2 2011(US$ m)

2,571

2,0411,939

(20.6%)

5.3%

5

0

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H1 Operating Performance – Industrial Activities

Metals & Minerals

Primarily due to lower metal prices, Adjusted EBITDA for the period was $832m, down 38% compared to H1 2011, but up 7% from H2 2011

Growth strategy to establish high quality, large scale, long life and low cost assets remains on track with significant future planned growth in own source copper volumes and gold

Production from own sources

Zinc: down 12% to 258kt

Copper: flat at 170kt

Gold: down 4% to 365ktoz (1)

Energy Products

Substantially improved performance during H1 2012 on the back of the oil E&P operations with 11.0m bbls produced from Aseng during the period

Adjusted EBITDA for H1 2012 was $528m, up 73% compared to $305m in H1 2011

Prodeco production up 12% to 7.9mt but lower realised coal prices impacted profitability

Additional contribution from South African coal following the Optimum, Umcebo and Shanduka Coal transactions

Agricultural Products

Total production and processing up 9% to 3.0mt

Significant headway with Viterra approvals; only MOFCOM outstanding

Commenced operations at two softseed crushing plants at Usti, Czech Republic and Bodaczow, Poland which were acquired in late 2011

Results impacted by Brazilian sugar crop harvest delays

Notes: (1) Includes gold equivalents (silver) at a gold/silver conversion ratio of 1/53.16 and 1/41.09 for H1 2012 and H1 2011 respectively based on average prices.

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0

400

800

1,200

1,600

2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

Mopani E&P Prodeco Kazzinc Katanga Mutanda Capex

Organic Growth – Glencore’s Own Production

Cu Equivalent Production Volume and Capex(100% basis)

Approved Expansion Projects:

2012E – 2015E CAGR 18.4%

Note: Excludes growth pipeline in agricultural segment, including Viterra

US$ mk MT

Capex for named assets

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Key Growth Assets – Continued Progressive Ramp-Up

Katanga

Kazzinc Gold and silver production from own sources in H1 2012 were higher than H1 2011 by 13% and 15% respectively

Reflects the ramp up at Altyntau Kokshetau and an increase in gold recovered from the lead smelter

– Operational review process (nearing completion) to de-bottleneck and increase production by H2 2013

Zinc, lead and copper production from own sources in H1 2012 were lower than in H1 2011

New copper smelter remains in ramp-up phase and now operating at 80% of design capacity

– Expected to reach design capacity in H1 2013

233207

H1 2011 H1 2012Gold

Own production (ktoz)

4343

H1 2011 H1 2012

12.5%

nil

Copper produced in metal and concentrate in H1 2012 was 43kt, with copper metal production increasing by 12% during the H1 2012

Ore mined and milled increased by 8% and 13% respectively

Copper production flat primarily due to power outages resulting in equivalent 28 days of lost production

Phase IV now in process with completion expected on time in 2013. Replicates proven technology already in use at Mutanda Copper

Own production (kt)

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7,9447,093

H1 2011 H1 2012

12.0%

Key Growth Assets – Continued Progressive Ramp-up

Prodeco

E&P

Mutanda

38

26

H1 2011 H1 2012Copper

Own production (kt)

Completion of additional SX/EW circuits in Q2 2012 resulted in significant copper cathode ramp up in H1 2012

– Copper cathode production 153% higher than H1 2011 at 36kt

Copper production (metal and in concentrate) up 48%

Feasibility study underway for 100kt sulphide concentrator, expected to be completed during Q1 2013

During H1 2012, increased interest in Mutanda from 40% to 60% with an option to purchase an additional 20% interest in December 2013

– Significant step in stated strategy of merging Mutanda and Kansuki

Mutanda / Kansuki on track to produce 200kt per annum by end 2013

First production from the Aseng field achieved in November 2011

– Gross oil production achieved to the end of H1 2012 was 11.0m bbls, an average daily rate of 61,000 bbls/day

Development of the Alen field in Equatorial Guinea remains on schedule for first production in Q3 2013

Glencore's first operated exploration well, Oak-1x, successfully drilled in the Bolongo licence (Glencore interest: 100%) offshore Cameroon during May and June. A 13.7 meter oil column was discovered in the main prospect with a total net oil pay of 6.2 meters, which has significantly de-risked the adjacent structures lying at similar depths

Drilling of further wells planned in the Bolongo licence during 2013 to appraise the Oak discovery and to test the adjacent structures

Preliminary estimates of hydrocarbon volumes from the Oak-1x indicate between 16 and 27 million barrels of recoverable oil and potentially between 38 and 90 million barrels of recoverable oil if the adjacent but untested structures are included

Total own coal production H1 2012 was 7.9mt, up 12% compared to H1 2011

– Positive result despite heavy rains leading to mud accumulation at the La Jagua pit

Largest capital expenditure project currently under way is the construction of the new direct loading port (Puerto Nuevo)

– Project on schedule and budget and expected to be commissioned in H1 2013 Coal

Own production (kt)

48.4%

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Steven Kalmin

Chief Financial Officer

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US$ m H1 2011 H2 2011 H1 2012 % Change vs. H1 2011

% Change vs. H2 2011

Revenue 92,120 94,032 107,957 17% 15%

Adjusted EBITDA (1) (3) 3,845 2,619 3,199 (17%) 22%

Adjusted EBIT (2) (3) 3,303 2,095 2,508 (24%) 20%

Net income attributable to equity holders (3) 2,439 1,621 1,809 (26%) 12%

Statutory net income attributable to equity holders 2,474 1,574 2,275 (8%) 45%

Funds from operations (FFO) (4) 2,145 1,377 1,930 (10%) 40%

31-Dec-11 30-Jun-12 Annualised H1 2012 % Change

Total equity (including non-controlling interest) 32,335 34,848 8%

Net debt (US$ m) 12,938 14,466 12%

FFO to net debt (%) 27.2% 22.9% 26.7%

Key Financial Highlights

Notes: (1) Adjusted EBITDA is revenue less cost of goods sold, less selling and administrative expenses, plus share of income from associates and joint controlled entities, plus dividend income, plus depreciation and amortisation. (2) Adjusted EBIT is Adjusted EBITDA less depreciation and amortisation. (3) Pre significant items.(4) FFO is Operating cash flow before working capital changes less net interest paid, less tax paid, plus dividends received from associates.

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31.12.2011 30.06.2012 Annualised H1 2012

Gross debt $28.0bn $29.3bn

Net funding $26.7bn $27.8bn

Net debt $12.9bn $14.5bn

Adjusted current ratio 1.53x 1.48x

FFO to net debt 27.2% 22.9% 26.7%

Net debt to adjusted EBITDA 2.00x 2.49x 2.26x

Adjusted EBITDA to net interest 7.63x 7.09x

Robust Balance Sheet(1)

Robust balance sheet with $9bn of committed liquidity

headroom

No material refinancings in the next 12 months

– Liquidity spread across more than 100 banks globally

Strong cashflow coverage ratios:

– FFO to net debt at 22.9% (26.7% on annualised first

half results) vs. 27.2% in 2011

– Net debt to adjusted EBITDA at 2.49x (2.26x on

annualised first half results) vs. 2.0x in 2011

Further working capital release expected in H2 2012

S&P and Moody’s investment grade credit ratings

targeted: currently BBB (watch positive) and Baa2

(review with direction uncertain) respectively

Adjusted current ratio healthy at 1.48x vs. 1.53x in 2011

Average VaR (1 day 95%) of $32m, representing 0.1% of

shareholders’ equityNotes: (1) All definitions as per H1 2012 results release.

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0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

BB

BB+

BBB-

BBB

BBB+

A-

A

A+

BB-

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Ratings evolution versus key peers S&P rating

• Xstrata $5.9bn rights issue in March 2009

• Glencore $10bn IPO in May 2011, with $7.5 bn primary proceeds• Rio Tinto’s $38bn

acquisition of Alcan in July 2007

• Rio Tinto’s $14.8bn rights issues in June and July 2009

Consistently Solid Credit Profile Across the Cycle

Glencore Xstrata Anglo American Rio Tinto Noble Group Cargill ADM

Business model proven to be highly cash flow resilient across the cycle since first public credit rating in 1997

Marketing debt usage is fundamentally different to that associated with industrial activities. Short working capital turnover (36 days) with price and credit routinely hedged and title to funded underlying inventories retained

Recent all-in funding costs of <2.5% reflects these features from a lender perspective

Marketing is itself financed conservatively with average 2 year facilities funding 36 days working capital cycle

Resilient diversified business model, cash-like nature of RMI, low capital intensive nature of business and lower effective tax rate enable Glencore to maintain a strong credit rating (currently BBB, positive watch) despite variations in certain headline credit metrics

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Net Debt (US$ bn)

History of Stable Credit Ratios

FFO/Net Debt (x)

Note: (1) Reflects receipt of IPO proceeds

(1)

11.5

10.4 10.2

13.6

14.8

8.3

12.9

14.5

31.6%

20.9%

22.9%

20.3%22.6%

49.6%

27.2% 22.9%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

FY 2008 H1 2009 FY 2009 H1 2010 FY 2010 H1 2011 FY 2011 H1 2012

14

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H1 2012 vs. H2 2011 Adjusted EBIT Bridge for Industrial Assets

(US$ m)

1,393

1,646

(253)

83

(144)

30

1,435

(93)

307 28

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

H2 2011 Adj.EBIT

Price Volume Cost FX D&A Other AdjustedEBIT preassociateincome

AssociateIncome

H1 2012 Adj.EBIT

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H1 2012 vs. H1 2011 Adjusted EBIT Bridge for Industrial Assets

1,393

1,707

(314)

45

(129)

38

2,052

(571)

575

(303)

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

H1 2011 Adj.EBIT

Price Volume Cost FX D&A Other AdjustedEBIT preassociateincome

AssociateIncome

H1 2012 Adj.EBIT

(US$ m)

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1,5471,655

901690 635

766633 609 688 666

184

266 552

145

350 299119

54092

(100)

114153

(200)

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

H1 2008 H2 2008 H1 2009 H2 2009 H1 2010 H2 2010 H1 2011 H2 2011 H1 2012 Average H12010 to H1

2012Metals Energy Agriculture Average 2008-2012

938

1,2771,152 1,118

Average 2008-2012: 1,150

1,572

654

Marketing Profitability H1 2012 in Perspective

(US$ m)Adjusted HY EBIT(1) (2)

Note: (1) No split available for H1 2008 to H2 2009(2) Excludes corporate costs in 2010-2012 17

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South African Coal

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South African Coal Overview A portfolio of high quality long life assets

Entity Glencore Effective Ownership %

Reserves and Resources

Total Annual Saleable Production

Annual Export Production

Annual Domestic Production

Optimum Coal 64.13%(1) 1,200mt 14.2mt 6.8mt 7.4mt

Shanduka Coal 49.99% 300mt 6mt 0.8mt 5.2mt

Umcebo Mining 43.66% 1,000mt 7.1mt 0.3mt 6.8mt

Total Controlled 2,500mt 27.3mt 7.9mt 19.4mt

Entity Glencore Effective Ownership %

Reserves and Resources(2)

Total Annual Saleable Production

Annual Export Production

Annual Domestic Production

Kangra Coal 15% 1,300mt 3.3mt 1.7mt 1.6mt

Total Non- Controlled

1,300mt 3.3mt 1.7mt 1.6mt

Glencore has developed a significant portfolio of coal assets in South Africa since the incorporation of Shanduka Coal in 2005

Recent acquisitions of Umcebo, Optimum and Kangra have increased aggregated saleable production to > 30mt p.a.

Glencore controlled entities have a combined Richards Bay Coal Terminal export allocation of 9.9mt; Kangra has 1.8mt

Glencore has management control of Optimum, Shanduka Coal and Umcebo

Glencore’s 15% interest in Kangra Coal is via an indirect interest through its 49.99% shareholding in Shanduka Coal, which in turn has a 30% interest in Kangra

Glencore controlled entities

Non - Glencore controlled entities

Summary

Notes: (1) Glencore effective ownership as at 30 June 2012 was 63%(2) The reserve and resource statement for Kangra is currently being completed. The number included is an estimate based on the work that has been done to date 19

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South African Coal Projects Strong pipeline of high quality projects

In addition, the following projects are currently being investigated and are expected to be developed over time

– Belfast (Umcebo) – resource of c.114mt

– Hendrina (Umcebo) – resource of c.374mt

– Leslie (Umcebo) – resource of c.250mt, contiguous to the Springboklaagte project and may be fast tracked

– Overvaal (Optimum) – resources of c.189mt

– Vlakfontein (Optimum) – resources of c.41mt

Development projects

Long lead projects

Project (1) Entity Estimated Start Up

Expected Annual ROM Production

Primary Market Life of Mine Capital Expenditure (Estimated)

Employees – Operational (Estimated)

Wonderfontein (2) Umcebo From 2012 3.6mt Export +- 20 Years R1bn 600

Koornfontein 4 Seam

Optimum From 2013 3mt Eskom +- 12 Years R700m 250

Springboklaagte Shanduka / Umcebo (50/50)

From 2015 3.6mt Export +- 12 Years R1.2bn 500

Argent Shanduka From 2015 2mt Export / Eskom +- 12 Years R400m 250

TNC Optimum From 2015 3.5mt Export +- 11 Years R900m 300

Remhoogte Optimum From 2016 4mt Export +- 16 Years R2bn 1,000

Schoonoord Optimum From 2015 1.3mt Export +- 15 Years R500m 150

Kusipongo Kangra From 2015 4mt Export +- 20 Years R1.2bn 1,000

Notes: (1) All projects are 100% owned except for the Wonderfontein project which is 50% owned by Umcebo, however it has management control of the project(2) The Wonderfontein project is in early development stage; all other projects are going through the feasibility process

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South African Coal Overview Geographical Map

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Eskom’s contracted coal is decreasing as its existing contracts come to an end

Currently constructing 2 new power stations:

– Kusile (4,800MW) – construction continuing, completion expected by 2018 with the first 800MW expected to start in December 2015

– Medupi (4,800MW) – construction continuing, expected to start producing electricity in H2 2013

The combination of expiring contracts and the new power stations means that Eskom’s un-contracted tonnage increases significantly to as much as 40mt in 2018

Eskom

Opportunities in South Africa 1. Eskom Coal Shortfall

Source: Dan Marokane McCloskey Presentation – 27.01.2012

Graph based on a 50 year operational lifespan with only 5 stations assumed in operation after 2040

Total uncommitted requirement of ~40Mtpa as

early as 2018

MT

per a

nnum

(mill

ion)

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Opportunities in South Africa 2. Transnet Freight Rail Expansion

Current rail capacity for Richards Bay exports expected to be c. 70mt for FY 2012

Plans approved to increase capacity to 81mt per annum by 2014

Transnet plans to expand rail capacity to 110mt and new exporters will be accommodated above the current port capacity of 91mt

– The increased capacity could add significant value to the Group given its current RBCT shareholding

RBCT Exports

Swazilink

Transnet confirmed plans to invest ZAR17bn on building a Swazilink railway line

Proposed line will increase rail capacity for both general freight and coal exports and will be the biggest rail project undertaken in Southern Africa since 1976

A new ZAR3.7bn single line covering 146km through Swaziland will be built by Transnet and investments of ZAR8.6bn will be made to upgrade and strengthen about 600km of existing railways

The line is expected to take as much as 15mt of general freight cargo off the Richards Bay coal line and free up capacity for coal moving to Richards Bay

– Could lead to an increase in Richards Bay coal capacity to c.100mt by 2020

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Agricultural Products

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Acquisition of Viterra

Transaction was announced on 20 March 2012, with component sales to Agrium and Richardson of c. CAD2.6bn already agreed

Glencore estimated net outflow of approximately CAD3.5bn to be further reduced via various non-core Viterra assets identified for likely disposal

On 29 May 2012, Viterra shareholders approved the acquisition

Almost all regulatory approvals have been received, including Canadian and Australian competition and foreign investment clearances

Approval of MOFCOM (China) is still pending

Post Merger Integration teams prepared for closing

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Russia15%

Canada13%

Australia15%EU-27

12%

Other26%

USA19%

USA2%

Australia17%

Ukraine9%

Russia1%

Other2%

Canada69%

Ukraine18%

Argentina17%

Russia17%

EU-2716%

Canada6%

Other6%

Australia20%

Wheat (140 million MT)World Exports by Country(1)

Barley (17 million MT)World Exports by Country(1)

Canola (12 million MT)World Exports by Country(1)

Africa

Rest of Asia

MalaysiaIndonesia

Japan

Viterra has origination assets in key geographic markets, in particular Australia & Canada

United States

Note: (1) Source: USDA, FAS, PSD. 2011/2012 estimated exports26

Importance of Canadian and Australian agri-markets

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AUSTRALIA109 Grain Silos

SOUTHAUSTRALIA

8 Port Terminals

EASTERN CANADA4 Port Terminals

WESTERN CANADA63 Grain Silos

3 Port Terminals8 Specialty Crop Facilities

2 Processing Facilities

Viterra Export Terminal Capacity

Viterra Grain Handling Assets

Existing Glencore Agriculture Assets

Diversified geographic mix in agricultural products segment

SOUTH AMERICAFarming

Grain SilosOilseed Processing

BiodieselProcurement

BusinessPort Terminals

EU / FSUFarming

Grain SilosPort Terminals

Oilseed ProcessingBiodiesel

Procurement Business

AUSTRALIAFarming

Procurement BusinessMalt processing

Complementary asset portfolios

CHINA49% JV Canola

Oilseed Processing

27

U.S.3 Specialty Crop

FacilitiesDurum Milling

Pasta processing

Summary of Global Assets Acquired from ViterraNorth America Australia/NZ Total Acquired

Grain Silos 63 109 172

Specialty Crop Facilities 11 - 11

Port Terminals 7 8 15

Processing Facilities 4 8 (incl. 1 China JV) 12

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48

48

3020376

2217

33

2522274

26

0

100

200

300

400

500

Begin

Stocks

Produc

tion

Impo

rts

Total D

omes

tic D

eman

dExp

orts

Ending

Stocks

Begin

Stocks

Produc

tion

Impo

rts

Total D

omes

tic D

eman

dExp

orts

Ending

Stocks

(MMT)US Corn Supply & Demand (Crop Year 2012/13)

4

41

48087

6

30

3

44173

4

0

20

40

60

80

100

Begin

Stocks

Produc

tion

Impo

rts

Total D

omes

tic D

eman

dExp

orts

Ending

Stocks

Begin

Stocks

Produc

tion

Impo

rts

Total D

omes

tic D

eman

dExp

orts

Ending

Stocks

(MMT)US Soy Supply & Demand (Crop Year 2012/13)

Projections as at August 2012Projections as at May 2012

Source: USDA

28

Development in US Product Balance from May to August 2012

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Ivan Glasenberg

Chief Executive Officer

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Concluding Remarks and Outlook

Overall

Industrial

Marketing Solid underlying profitability in Marketing, with metals particularly strong

– Strong performances from copper and aluminium

Highlights strength of our highly diversified business model

– Underpinned by strong relationships with customers, suppliers and finance providers

Performance heavily impacted by weaker average prices for key metals produced

Positives from our delivery of growth projects including oil E&P, Kazzinc, Mutanda, Prodeco and South African coal

– Continue to work hard to overcome short term production impacts at Katanga

Strong performance at the Aseng oilfield is particularly pleasing and expected to continue into the second half

Confident that we can deliver strong production growth over the next twelve months

Despite economic headwinds across Europe, US and China, Glencore delivered a healthy financial performance with net income, pre-significant items, of $1.8bn

The first half of 2012 also saw a number of material corporate events announced

– Recommended merger of equals with Xstrata announced on 7 February (subject to shareholder vote on 7 September and other regulatory approvals)

– Acquisition of Viterra announced on 20 March (subject to Chinese MOFCOM regulatory approval)

Other highlights included

– The purchase of a majority stake in Mutanda

– Acquisition of Vale’s European manganese operations and associated marketing agreements

Glencore’s diversified business model underpins the respectable performance against an uncertain macroeconomic picture and weaker commodity price environment

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Q & A

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