Glen L. Gray California State University, Northridge Victoria Chiu SUNY New Paltz
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The Expert Systems Life Cycle in AIS Research: What it Means for Future AIS Research Glen L. Gray California State University, Northridge Victoria Chiu SUNY New Paltz Qi Liu and Pei Li Rutgers University, The State University of New Jersey University of Waterloo Symposium on Information Integrity & Information Systems Assurance 8 th Biennial Research Symposium October 4-5, 2013
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University of Waterloo Symposium on Information Integrity & Information Systems Assurance 8 th Biennial Research Symposium. Glen L. Gray California State University, Northridge Victoria Chiu SUNY New Paltz Qi Liu and Pei Li Rutgers University, The State University of New Jersey. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Transcript of Glen L. Gray California State University, Northridge Victoria Chiu SUNY New Paltz
The Expert Systems Life Cycle in AIS Research:
What it Means for Future AIS Research
Glen L. GrayCalifornia State University, Northridge
Victoria ChiuSUNY New Paltz
Qi Liu and Pei LiRutgers University, The State University of New Jersey
University of Waterloo Symposium on Information Integrity & Information Systems Assurance
8th Biennial Research Symposium
October 4-5, 2013
BACKGROUND -- GENERAL Sutton (2005) The role of AIS research in guiding
practice. AIS research more applied research vs. basic
research, putting AIS researchers at a disadvantage in terms of publication outlets.
Alles, Kogan, Vasarhely (2008) Exploiting comparative advantage… AIS researchers face more competition
compared to NAIS… Researchers in: IS, IT, CS, EE, plus others Accounting firms Other technology organizations
BACKGROUND – AIS/AI/ES O’Leary (2008) Gartner's Hype Cycle
and Information System Research Issues and (2009) The Impact of Gartner's Maturity Curve, Adoption Curve, Strategic Technologies on Information Systems Research...
Moore (2002) Crossing the Chasm
GARNER HYPE CURVE
PRODUCT (OR RESEARCH) LIFE CYCLE
RESEARCHER GROUPSPu
blic
atio
ns
CHASMS
RESEARCH QUESTIONS RQ1: Did expert systems research in accounting
and AIS domain go through a similar industry life cycle over time?
RQ2: Did the type of research evolve over time as would be predicted by the industry life cycle and the Gartner hype curve?
RQ3: Did the type of researcher evolve over time as would be predicted by the adoption life cycle?
RQ4: Did the evolution of the type researcher encounter chasms that slowed or stopped expert system research as would be predicted by Moore?
REASEARCH METHOD Search electronic literature databases
AI/ES/KD AND Accounting/Auditing/Tax[Challenge: Searching early paper-based literature.]
Interview accounting professors who had early and/or frequent hits
Interview Big 4 (6/8) representatives[Challenge: finding people who remember the 80s]
PRELIMINARY RESULTS
SOME GREAT STORIES… Dedication…
Paul Steinbart develops expert system at night at community college because MSU doesn’t have appropriate DEC VAX computer. [1982-84]
Serendipity… Bob Michaelsen (author of first ES/accounting paper)
included ES in his tax dissertation because his daughter was in Brownies with David Waltz’s daughter. [1979…]
Tenacious… Called ES companies until she found a company who
would give her a fully-functional ES for research. [1997]
A STORY TO BEAT Edward Feigenbaum visits University of
Turku (Finland) and talks about A.I. and Mycin-- sounds like “fun.”
1985, Barbo Back builds 500-700 rule expert system in LPA Prolog.
Domain: Corporate tax: 60% Maximum, but many, many exceptions, credits, etc.
Carries MAC to interview practitioners. Results…
RQ1: EXPERT SYSTEMS PUBLICATIONS
1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20110
5
10
15
20
25
12
7
11 11
3
16
21
12
10 10
22
13
16
13
7
4
6
43 3
76
4
65
2
8
Total
Total = 233 articles
TOP JOURNALSTop Journals with the Most Expert Systems
Publications Count %
1 Expert Systems with Applications 26 11.16%
2 Auditing: A Journal of Practice & Theory 15 6.44%
3 Journal of Information Systems 14 6.01%
4 New Review of Applied Expert Systems and Emerging Technologies 9 3.86%
5 Accounting Education 8 3.43%
6 Accounting, Organizations and Society 6 2.58%
7 International Journal of Accounting Information Systems 6 2.58%
8 Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance & Management 6 2.58%
38.64%
RQ2: TYPE OF PUBLICATIONS
1984-1990 1991-1997 1998-2004 2005-20110%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Seven-Year Periods
Percent of Articles Published in System-Related Journals
PUBLICATIONS BY ACCOUNTING AREA
58
19 20
76
32
20
8
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Accounting FinancialAccounting
ManagerialAccounting
Auditing Tax Education MultipleDisciplines
Area
CHANGING MIX OF APPLICATION AREAS
Accounting Financial Accounting
Managerial Accounting
Auditing Tax Education Mixed0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
1984-19901991-19971998-20042005-2011
Accounting Areas
Rela
tive
Perc
enta
ges
DISTRIBUTION OF AUTHORSHIPSNumber of
Articles Published
Number of Authors
Percent of Authors
7 2 0.57%6 2 0.57%5 1 0.28%4 9 2.56%3 10 2.84%2 25 7.10%1 303 86.08%
R3/R4: FREQUENT AUTHORS (PRELIMINARY)Top Expert Systems Authors Publications %
1 Carol E. Brown 7 3.00%2 Daniel E. O’Leary 7 3.00%3 Robert H. Michaelsen 6 2.58%4 Alan Sangster 6 2.58%5 Mary Ellen Phillips 5 2.15%6 Mohammad J. Abdolmohammadi 4 1.72%7 Andrew D. Bailey, Jr. 4 1.72%8 Amelia Annette Baldwin-Morgan 4 1.72%9 Martha M. Eining 4 1.72%
10 James V. Hansen 4 1.72%11 Clyde W. Holsapple 4 1.72%12 R. Steve McDuffie 4 1.72%13 David S. Murphy 4 1.72%14 Paul J. Steinbart 4 1.72%
EXPERT SYSTEMS DISSERTATIONS
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1
0
3
1
3 3 3 3
6
4
3 3
5
2 2
1
0 0 0 0
1
Dissertation #
AAA MEETING PRESENTATIONS Year Presentation #
Pre-1998 (Being compiled)
1998 21999 22001 32002 12003 12004 12006 1
2007-2009 02010 1
PUBLICATIONS IN OTHER FIELDS
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2400
2600
2800
3000
Expert Systems Articles in All the field Count
in ScienceDirect in Scopusin WILEYin EBSCOAccounting and Auditing field
LESSONS LEARNED?1. Being first to embrace a new technology
limits the types of research, but it also provides some freedom.
2. Being in the lead (ahead of practice) is a prized position.
3. It is hard to lead if no one is following.4. If academics do a good job of leading
practice, practice eventually will take the lead.
LESSONS LEARNED?5. The Gartner hype cycle will usually catch up
with researchers (what goes up, must come down). Corollary: When in the trough of
disillusionment, it’s hard to determine the trough’s length and the slope of the plateau and some researchers will leave instead of risking a long trough or a downward sloping plateau.
6. The types of research within a domain must evolve over time. Corollary: Chasms will be encountered as
types of research evolve—some may be impossible to cross.
LESSONS LEARNED?7. The types of researchers will change as the
types research progresses. Corollary: After crossing each chasm, some
current researchers will leave and new researcher will join the domain.
8. More?
