Gilbert E. Metcalf Tufts University and NBER · 2014. 6. 27. · 27, 2014 . Why Regulate the Power...
Transcript of Gilbert E. Metcalf Tufts University and NBER · 2014. 6. 27. · 27, 2014 . Why Regulate the Power...
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Regulation and Innovation
Gilbert E. Metcalf Tufts University and NBER
CHINA, THE WEST, AND THE CHALLENGE OF
ALTERNATIVE ENERGY INNOVATION PETERSON INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL
ECONOMICS JUNE 27, 2014
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Why Regulate the Power Sector through the Clean
Air Act?
2 CEA (2014)
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Regulatory Approach
• Targets based on Best System of Emission Reduction (BSER)
• Emission intensity goals set at state level • States given wide flexibility in policies and
measures to achieve goals – Regional and market based approaches
acceptable – Averaging over time – Build on existing programs (e.g. RGGI, AB32)
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BSER: Building Block Technologies Translated to State Goals
Technology/Building Block Proposed Option 1 Alternative Option 2
1. Heat rate improvement (Avg. Reduction for Coal) 6% 4%
2. Dispatch to existing and under-construction NGCC
Utilization of NGCC up to 70% capacity factor
Utilization of NGCC up to 65% capacity factor
3. Dispatch to new clean electric generation
Includes new nuclear generation under construction, moderate deployment of new renewable generation,
and continued use of existing nuclear generation
4. Demand-side Energy Efficiency (% reduction in demand from BAU MWh sales)
3.0% / 10.7% (2020 / 2030)
2.4% / 5.2% (2020 / 2025)
Goal Proposed Option 1 Proposed Option 2
Average nationwide goal for covered sources (lbs/MWh)
25% to 30% below 2005 levels
20% to 25% below 2005 levels
4 CEA (2014)
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Emission Intensity Reductions: 2030
-40% to -72% -30% to -40% -20% to -30% -11% to -20%
No target for VT US Average: -35%
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Heat Rate Improvement
-5% to -6% -4% -2% to -3% 0% to -1%
No target for VT US Average: -4%
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Redispatch
-20% to -36% -11% to -19% -2% to -10% 0% to -1%
No target for VT US Average: -12%
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Renewable Generation
-16% to -20% -10% to -15% -3% to -9% 0% to -2%
No target for VT US Average: -9%
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Energy Efficiency
-16% to -22% -12% to -15% -8% to -11% -3% to -7%
No target for VT US Average: -11%
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Impact of Program
Climate Change Impacts Co-Benefits of Correlated Pollutants plus …
Domestic Global Domestic Climate Impacts
Global Climate Impacts
Benefits Climate Change $ 3 $ 31 $3 $31 Health Co-Benefits $45 $45 Total Benefits $ 3 $ 31 $48 $76 Total Compliance Costs $ 9 $ 9 $ 9 $ 9
Net Benefits - $ 6 $ 22 $ 39 $ 67
Power sector CO2 emissions fall 25-30% below 2005 levels in 2025 – a reduction of 18-25% relative to business-as-usual baseline.
EPA (2014) and Stavins (2014)
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Economic Impacts: Energy Markets
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Impacts: Employment A. One time changes 2017-2020 2021-2025 2026-2030 Heat Rate Improvements* 32,200 0 0 New Capacity Construction* 28,200 -38,000 -36,100 B. Recurring changes 2020 2025 2030 Operation & Maintenance* -24,100 -25,300 -24,900 Coal Mining* -14,300 -17,800 -18,000 Gas Extraction* 6,000 3,200 -1,400 Energy Efficiency Sector** 78,800 112,000 111,800 * = job years ** = number of jobs (full or part time; 1 job ≈ .91 job-years)
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1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015
Natural Resource Extraction Employment, 1949-2013
Jobs (thousands)
Source: EIA; BLS.
Oil and Natural Gas
Coal(through 2012)
EPA, CEA (2014)
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Cost Effective?
• State goals set as a rate improvement – Penalty to coal; subsidy to natural gas – Dampens impact on final price
• Differential shadow price on emissions across states?
• State implementation flexibility a bonus in this second best world
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How Will CPP Impact Innovation?
• How will states implement SIPs? • Rate based approach dampens consumer
price and incentives for EE innovation – But goals predicated on EE – Impact on EE innovation depends on marginal cost
of EE innovation versus RE deployment and redispatch
• No drivers for fundamental R&D
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Regulation and Innovation
• Well developed theory (and empirics) on induced innovation – Final price impact dampened by intensity goal – Lack of a clear price signal (explicit or implicit) – Salience effects of policy
• Shale gas revolution weakens innovation impact – Not specific to regulation; but regulation building on
shale gas revolution
• What is the policy counterfactual?
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