GEOSHAFT Pilot Space Weather Service David Rodgers, Karen Ford and Keith Ryden, QinetiQ,...
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Transcript of GEOSHAFT Pilot Space Weather Service David Rodgers, Karen Ford and Keith Ryden, QinetiQ,...
GEOSHAFT Pilot Space Weather Service
David Rodgers, Karen Ford and Keith Ryden, QinetiQ, Farnborough, UK
SW Week 2005: ESTEC, Noordwijk
Internal dielectric charging (IDC) ranks highly among environmental hazards to geostationary satellites.
Aim is to provide space radiation threat information for use in real-time planning and post-event anomaly analysis.
Intended Products:
– Running 24hr averages of >2MeV electron flux
– Charging currents through the shielding around sensitive equipment
– Maximum electric field in sensitive componentsDelivery:
– Hazard levels on html and alerts by e-mail
– User control of alert levels, shielding and material properties
GEOSHAFT Objectives1
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GEOSHAFT User Needs
One external user (New Skies) participated in UR phase
Trial version of service was used to generate UR feedback
Main requirements:• Anomaly diagnostic information
• Short-term forecasting, up to 24-hours
• Clear information delivery
• Easily accessible using common software
• Robust against data errors and outages
• Quality flag
• User customisability
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4GEOSHAFT Service evaluationWeb ‘hits’ ~ 5/day (excluding search engines)
New Skies and Paradigm participated in evaluation
Cost of anomalies
• engineering time dealing with space weather anomalies (of order £20-40k)– New Skies - 1½ months of engineer effort per year for the 5 spacecraft– Paradigm - 3 months of engineer effort per year for fleet
• disruption to service: – New Skies - < 6 or 7 mins not serious, but >10-15 mins a problem
• documentation for insurance (typically 2%/year premium)
Value of existing GEOSHAFT to users (~ zero)
• New Skies – no internal charging anomalies
• Paradigm – mature fleet, no new anomalies, interest in longer-term forecasts for operations
• No value in having European space weather capability per se
• Nevertheless an improved service would have value
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5GEOSHAFT Business planBased on an improved service
Market
• ~ 320 geostationary satellites, ~ 60 systems, 6 multiple European systems
Costs £
Funding models
• Subscription £5k/u/yr
• Public service £77k over 3 years
Comparisons
• NOAA SEC, NASA’s ‘SpaceWeather.com’, IPS in Australia, BAS SatRisk and IRF Lund are non-subscription, also SPENVIS currently.
• Satellite Users Interference Reduction Group ~ $15k/u/yr
Set-up Recur. Data Business Market. Total
In-house 35k 16k 0 .5k /u/yr 12k 99.5k
Hosted 31k 16k 0 .5k /u/yr 6k 101.5k
Joint 33k 10k 0 .25k/u/yr 6k 80.25k
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GEOSHAFT Prospective improvements• Without changes the existing service is too limited
• New requirements– Local time mapping– Multiple satellites visible at once– Easier customisation of shielding, no fields– Automated anomaly comparisons
• Being part of global service makes sense financially and practically for users
• New Data sources– Higher spectral resolution for better internal charging calculations feasible– More GEO monitors would improve predictions and local time mapping– Extension to MEO
• New, sophisticated detectors on GSTB/Galileo • Galileo creates a major new user• Europe could become the principal provider of MEO spacecraft hazard
information.
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