FY 2014 U.S. Agricultural Trade Forecasts
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FY 2014 U.S. Agricultural Trade Forecasts Changes to FY 2014 Forecasts Exports $5.6 billion to $142.6 billion Imports $0.5 billion to $110.0 billion Surplus $5.1 billion to $32.6 billion USDA’s “Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade” Released on February 20, 9:00 am EST Slides prepared by Office of Global Analysis/FAS
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FY 2014 U.S. Agricultural Trade Forecasts. Changes to FY 2014 Forecasts Exports $5.6 billion to $142.6 billion Imports $0.5 billion to $110.0 billion Surplus $5.1 billion to $32.6 billion. USDA’s “Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade” Released on February 20, 9:00 am EST. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Transcript of FY 2014 U.S. Agricultural Trade Forecasts
FY 2014 U.S. Agricultural Trade Forecasts
Changes to FY 2014 Forecasts Exports $5.6 billion to $142.6 billion Imports $0.5 billion to $110.0 billion Surplus $5.1 billion to $32.6 billion
USDA’s “Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade”Released on February 20, 9:00 am EST
Slides prepared by Office of Global Analysis/FAS
U.S. Agricultural Trade
'92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 12 13 14(f)
$0$10$20$30$40$50$60$70$80$90
$100$110$120$130$140$150
Billi
on $
32.6
Exports
Imports
Trade Surplus
Records
137.4
110
37.142.9
Grain and oilseed export forecast surges on higher volumes and prices
142.6
Grains and Feeds
Oilseeds Livestock, Poultry, and
Dairy
Cotton Horticultural Products
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Bill
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Dol
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Nov
embe
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Febr
uary
+$3.2 Billion
+$0.1 Billion
-$0.2 Billion
No Change
February vs. November Commodity Forecasts Large gains in grains and oilseeds ; slight reduction in
livestock and poultry
+$2.6 Billion
Bulk Exports Recover While High Value Products Hit Record
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Overall Forecast up $1.7 Billion from FY 2013
Bulk High Value
Bill
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$ 46
.2 B
illio
n
$ 46
.8 B
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$ 94
.7 B
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$ 95
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Export Volume Recovers
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Other*
Soybeans
Feeds
Wheat
Coarse Grains
Mill
ion
Tons
159 mmt 166 mmt
*Includes cotton, rice, soybean meal, soybean oil, beef & veal, pork, beef and pork variety meats, broiler meat, and tobacco
146 mmt130 mmt
China Pulls Ahead as Top Market
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014(f)0
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25U.S. Agricultural Exports to Canada, China, & Mexico
Bill
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Dol
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China
Mexico
Canada
Exports Up to China, SE Asia, EU, & S. America
Change in FY 2014 Exports from November Forecast
+$400 mil
+$3.5 bil
+$700 mil
-$800 mil
Imports $0.5 billion at a record of 110 billion
Tropical Products $0.8 billion – lower prices for sugar, coffee, and rubber
Horticultural Products $0.6 billion – larger volume of beer; higher prices for fresh fruits
Grain and Oilseeds $0.7 billion – record wheat imports; higher olive oil and coconut oil values
Livestock & Dairy $0.5 billion – higher cattle and beef imports
Other Imports $0.6 billion – mainly tobacco and planting seeds
FY 2014 Imports
Revised FY 2014 Forecast: $31.3 Billion $3.2 Billion
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41Export Value ($Bil)
Actual
Nov Forecast
Feb Forecast
2014 Key Developments
Corn volume up sharply, primarily on less competition from Argentina and strong demand from Mexico, Korea, and Europe
Wheat volume up, larger exports to South America and Asia
Wild CardsSouth American corn harvestChinese corn import demandNorthern Hemisphere winter wheat crop conditionsWheat export policies in India and Argentina
Export Outlook for Grain & Feed Products
Revised FY 2014 Forecast: $31.4 Billion $2.6 Billion
Export Outlook for Oilseeds & Products
2014Key DevelopmentsSoybean volume rises on record early sales to China Strong demand boosts soybean and soybean meal prices Soybean meal volume up on export paceSoybean oil value reduced on weakening vegetable oil prices
Wild Cards China’s soybean import demand Argentina export prospects
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Export Value ($Bil)
Actual
Nov Forecast
Feb Forecast
Revised FY 2014 Forecast: $4.4 Billion $100 million
Export Outlook for Cotton
2014Key Developments Higher unit values, primarily due to stronger import demand from Southeast Asia
Wild Cards Additional changes in China’s reserve policy Cotton yarn demand in China
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10Export Value ($Bil)
Actual
Nov Forecast
Feb Forecast
Revised FY 2014 Forecast: $31.6 Billion $200 Million
Export Outlook for Dairy, Livestock, and Poultry
2014Key Developments Broiler meat down on lower unit values
Pork down on tighter exportable supplies
Beef up on greater prices and volumes despite limited supplies
Dairy higher on strong global demand.
Wild CardsOngoing SPS trade issues
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Export Value ($Bil)
Actual
Nov Forecast
Feb Forecast
Revised FY 2014 Forecast: $34.5 Billion Unchanged
Export Outlook for Horticulture Products
2014Key Developments Long-term growth trend continues Tree nuts up on higher prices and volumes to Europe and China Fruit and vegetables down on lower volumes to Canada, Mexico and Europe
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Export Value ($Bil)
Actual
Nov Forecast
Feb Forecast
Record
