FY 2014 & 2015 U.S. Agricultural Trade Forecasts

Initial FY 2015 Forecasts Exports = $144.5 billion Imports = $117 billion Surplus = $27.5 billion

Changes Since May in 2014 ForecastExports $3.0 billion to $152.5 billionImports $1.0 billion to $109.5 billionSurplus $4.0 billion to $43 billion

USDA’s “Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade”Released on August 28, 3:00 pm EST

Slides prepared by Office of Global Analysis/FAS

'93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 12 13 14(f)

15(f)

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

Bil

lion

$

27.5

Exports

ImportsTrade Surplus

Records

141152.5

109.5

103.8

37.1

43

Lower Bulk Export Prices and Greater Export Competition

144.5

117

U.S. Agricultural Trade

Grains, Oilseeds & Cotton

Grain and Feed $200 million - higher coarse grain exports more than offset lower wheat exports

Oilseeds $1.0 billion - strong exports of both soybeans and meal

Cotton $300 million - strong unit values

Livestock & Horticultural Products

Livestock & Products $1.2 billion – most categories up, especially dairy

Horticultural Products No Change

Exports forecast up $3 billion to a record $152.5 billion

FY 2014 Exports Revisions (Aug. vs. May)

Grains and Feeds

Oilseeds Cotton Livestock Prod. Horticultural Products

Sugar & Trop-ical Prod.

-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4Initial FY 2015 Forecast vs. Revised FY 2014

Bill

ion

Do

llars

-$4.9 Billion

- $500 Million

+ $200 Million

+$2.7 Billion

-$5.1 Billion

-$600 Million

FY 2015 Forecasts

Bulk Total Grain Soybeans Cotton-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

-4%

-8%

2%0%

-16% -16% -17%

-13%

% Change FY 14 to FY 15 Forecasts

Volume Value

Most of Decline in Value of Bulk Exports Due to Lower Prices

Horticulture Expected to Be Largest Export Group for First Time

'08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14e '15f10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Horticultural Products

Oilseeds and Products

Grain & Feed and Products

-$500 mil

-$3.0 bil -$400 mil

-$800 mil

-$200 mil

-$1.4 bil

-$400 mil

No Change

FY 2015 Export Changes by Market

-$800 mil+$100 mil

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 (e) 2015 (f)0

5

10

15

20

25

30U.S. Agricultural Exports to Canada, China, & Mexico

Bill

ion

Dol

lars

China

Mexico

Canada

Despite Fall, China Remains Largest Market

*Includes Wheat, Corn, Sorghum, & Barley

Imports Forecast at a Record $117 Billion

2014 (e) 2015 (f)0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Livestock and Dairy Products Grains, Feed, & OilseedsHorticultural Products Sugar and TropicalOther

Billi

on $

23.3 26.2

15.6

20.8 20.8

51.4 47.4

15.9

Revised FY 2014 Forecast: $36.0 Billion $200 Million

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'10

'11

'12

'13

'14f

'15f

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17

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37

41Export Value ($Bil)

Actual

August 14 Forecast

August 15 Projection

2015Key Developments

Corn volumes, values down on higher competition and weak pricesWheat prices down with abundant global supplies.

Wild CardsNew-crop South American corn plantingsWheat production in Southern Hemisphere2015/16 Northern Hemisphere winter wheat planting2014Key DevelopmentsCorn, sorghum boosted on strong demand

Export Outlook for Grain & Feed Products

Initial FY 2015 Projection: $31.1 Billion

Revised FY 2014 Forecast: $34.8 Billion $1.0 Billion

Export Outlook for Oilseeds & Products

2015Key Developments Export value down on lower unit pricesSoybean complex volumes rise on strong demand, lower prices Soybean and soybean meal volumes to set records

Wild Cards China soybean demandU.S. production prospects

2014Key Developments Soybean volume rises on record sales to China Soybean meal and oil volume up on stronger demand '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14

f15f

9

14

19

24

29

34

Export Value ($Bil)

Actual

August 14 Forecast

August 15 Projection

Initial FY 2015 Projection: $29.7 Billion

Revised FY 2014 Forecast: $4.7 Billion Up $300 Million

Export Outlook for Cotton

2015Key Developments Import demand slows further Prices fall on record stocks

Wild Cards Additional changes in China’s reserve policy Cotton yarn demand in China

2014Key Developments Unit values remain strong as prices fell

'03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14f

15f

0

2

4

6

8

10

Export Value ($Bil)

Actual

Aug 14 Forecast

Aug 15 Projection

Initial FY 2015 Projection: $4.1 Billion

Revised FY 2014 Forecast: $33.4 Billion $1.2 Billion

Export Outlook for Dairy, Livestock, and Poultry

2015Key Developments Beef higher as elevated prices outweigh lower shipments on tight supplies Dairy lower on increased global competitionPork lower on decreased prices and supplies Poultry lower on reduced broiler meat shipments

Wild Cards PED impact Ongoing SPS trade issues

2014Key Developments Gains in most categories, especially dairy '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13

f'14f

15f

9

14

19

24

29

34

Export Value ($Bil)

Actual

August 14 Forecast

August 15 Projection

Initial FY 2015 Projection: $32.9 Billion

Revised FY 2014 Forecast: $34.1 Billion Unchanged

Export Outlook for Horticulture Products

2015Key Developments Long-term growth trend continues Strong exports to Canada, Europe and ChinaTree nut exports higher due to strong demand in China and Europe for almonds, pistachios and walnuts

Wild Cards China’s continued growth, particularly for tree nuts, fresh fruit and wine

'03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14f

'15f

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Export Value ($Bil)

Actual

August 14 Forecast

August 15 Projection

Initial FY 2015 Projection: $37.0 Billion