FUTUREVaughn Nelson

Conservation and energy efficiency

Renewable energy

Carbon trading

National Renewable Portfolio Standard

US Goal: 20% of electric from wind by 2030, www.20percentwind.org

FUTURE WIND

2020, World Wind 580,000 MW

2015, Texas 22,000 MW

WIND FARM DEVELOPMENT1.LAND with good to excellent winds

2.ACCESS to transmission lines (proximity and carrying capacity)

3.CONTRACT to sell energy

(Incentives, penalties, public education)

TEXAS PREDICTION

ELECTRIC GENERATION, MW2009 2030

20% WIND

Texas 101,000 25,000

New Mexico 7,200 2,500

Oklahoma 20,000 6,000

In general, windy areas are far from major load centers. Need transmission to East, West, South (ERCOT).

TRES AMIGAS, 15,000 MWAC-DC-AC intertie

WIND TURBINES, MWEnormous Potential (8-15 MW/sq mile)

TX Panhandle 60,000

OK Panhandle, Western 35,000

NM Eastern 15,000

Total 120,000

Future Regional (best scenario)ERCOT 8,000

Southwest Power Pool 9,000

Tres Amigas intertie 13,000

Total 30,000

WIND, MWERCOT Transmission Upgrade 18,000

Present (08) 7,000 New 11,000

Interconnect requests (09)ERCOT 50,000

Southwest Power Pool 40,000

Xcel (Southwestern Public Ser) 13,000

Subtotal 90,000

Future Regional (best) 30,000Land owner; contracts, queue

GIR, $20,000 to 175,000

TX PanhandleMax 8,000 MW

FUTUREWind Installed Capacity (2030) 30,000 MW

Only 1/4 of present contracts will be installed

New contracts (a bunch)

Landowners within 25 miles of major substations or high voltage lines have advantage.

Curtailment will still be a problem.

Flip of projects (resource option to wind farms)