Future Trends & Themes Summary - OmniRide · Transform 66: Inside the Beltway New commuter bus...
Transcript of Future Trends & Themes Summary - OmniRide · Transform 66: Inside the Beltway New commuter bus...
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Future Trends & ThemesSummary
Presented to Executive Steering Committee:April 12, 2017
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Future Themesand Trends
Vision Workshop – Regional/Local Themes
Preparing forthe impact ofdemographicand economictrends that willreshape theentire region.
Creating asense of placeto attract newhigh-qualityworkers, who inturn attracthigh-qualityemployers.
Adapting travelpatterns for animprovedquality of life.
Supportingmultimodaltravel and high-capacity transitnetworks toconnectjurisdictionalactivity centers,and to connectto the region’score.
Supportingtransit-orientedgrowth.
The region and the Prince William area share the following key themes:
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33333
National& Industry
Trends
Population&
Employment
Land Use
TravelDemand
SocialPreference
Technology
The Regional/Local themes and supporting information from National/industrytrends provide important insight into the future facing the PWC area and PRTC.
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Preparing for Demographic andEconomic Trends
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Significantly higher population growth rate
Preparing for demographicand economic trends
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0.00%
10.00%
20.00%
30.00%
40.00%
50.00%
2000 - 2010 2010 - 2020 2020 - 2030 2030 - 2040
Fore
cast
Incr
ease
inPo
pula
tion
Year
Prince William County
Virginia
United States
Source: Virginia Employment Commission, Economic Information & Analytics; US Census
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Lack of affordable housing in the DC Coreforcing out even high wage earners
Preparing for demographicand economic trends
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Competitive employment market, strong economy
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Une
mpl
oym
entR
ate
Source: Virginia Employment Commission, Economic Information & Analytics
Preparing for demographicand economic trends
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Diverse Economy(Top Five Industries in Prince William CountyArea)1. Local and Federal Government2. Retail Trade3. Accommodation and Food Services4. Construction5. Health Care and Social Assistance
Data Center Investment• $2.4 Billion in Capital investment and
370 new jobs (2011-2016)• 10,000 acres identified as Data Center
Opportunity Zone in 2016
8Source: Virginia Employment Commission, Economic Information & Analytics
Preparing for demographicand economic trends
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Fuel price decline has leveled off andprices are likely to increase
9Source: Virginia Employment Commission, Economic Information & Analytics
Preparing for demographicand economic trends
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Commuter benefits will remain onpar with parking benefits
10Source: Virginia Employment Commission, Economic Information & Analytics
$-
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
2012-2013 2014-2015 2016
Federal Transit and Parking Monthly Benefits
Parking Benefit Transit Benefit
Preparing for demographicand economic trends
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Creating a sense of place
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Common regional and local objectives and strategies tohelp create communities of choice:
Creating a Sense of Place
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• Attracting high-quality workers toattract high-quality employers
• Mixed-used walkable communities• Promoting residents working close to
home• Attracting new companies and
businesses to targeted developmentareas
• Emphasizing strategic redevelopmentopportunities
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Four out of five RECENT move respondents say that having stores,restaurants, and services within 15 minutes of home is very important
Creating a Sense of Place
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83%
76%
72%
70%
66%
62%
57%
74%
75%
69%
63%
61%
62%
51%
84%
51%
50%
47%
58%
45%
33%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Having access to stores, restaurants, and services close to myhome (within about 15 minutes) is very important to me.
I would love to live within 15 minutes commute of my workand/or my school.
My ideal neighborhood would have a wide range of differentpeople and ages who live near me.
Communities should prioritize spending on easy, safe, andreliable public transportation such as light rail.
Prominent bike / walk paths from my home to stores,restaurants, and entertainment are part of my ideal
neighborhood.
I’d prefer the option to take close-by public transportation overusing a personal car.
Good public school systems are an indication of a healthy,happy neighborhood, regardless of whether or not I have
school-age children.
Millennials
Gen X
Boomer
Significantly more Millennial and Gen X respondents than Boomerrespondents agreed with most placemaking statements
n = 600
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Creating a Sense of Place
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• Areas with higher forecastdensities and a relatively evenpopulation /employment splitpresent best opportunities forefficient local transit service
• Creates financial opportunitiesthrough public-privatepartnerships and/or specific taxdistricts
Creating a Sense of Place
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PRTC is well positioned with existing/future services targetedin areas of high-forecast employment growth
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Creating a Sense of Place
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Adapting travel patterns for animproved quality of life
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of Virginiansbetween the
ages of 18 and 25who could havea driver’s licensechoose not to ordon’t have one
30%
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Adapting travel patterns
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US vehicle travel grew steadily during the TwentiethCentury, but peaked in 2006 and has declined since.
Source: USDOT
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At the same time, transit use nationally has increased significantly
Source: APTA 2013
Adapting travel patterns
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PWC Area’s Reduction in Driving Alone OutperformedOther Northern Virginia Rideshare Markets
Source: Virginia Travel Survey
76%69%68% 68%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Prince William Co. Area Other Northern Virginia
2007 2015
Adapting travel patterns
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21Source: Virginia Travel Survey
Alternative Mode Commuters are SignificantlyMore Satisfied with their Trip to Work
46%
63%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Drive-alone commuter Alternative mode commuter% satisfaction with work commute
Adapting travel patterns
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Adapting travel patterns
• PRTC and VRE have experienced lower ridership on Mondays and Fridays
• Many employers offer flexible “hoteling” space in place of assigned desks
• Alternative work schedules are becoming more popular to balance personalcommitments
• Office vacancy rates have generallyincreased over the past couple ofyears
• About 3% of the workforce now worksfrom home at least half of the time
Workplace habits are changing. Fewer peopleare going into the office on a daily basis
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Transit agencies around the country are partnering with TNCs on pilotprograms to subsidize trips or provide connections for the “first and last mile”
Adapting travel patterns
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Research and pilots of connected and autonomous vehicles are becoming moreprevalent but significant impacts to mobility are still years away
Adapting travel patterns
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Supporting multimodal travel andhigh-capacity transit networks
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Supporting MultimodalTravel
National/Regional Trends• Connecting centers within jurisdictions and connecting to the
regional core• Interconnected regional network of Express Lanes• High-capacity transit implementation
Common Local Objectives & Strategies• Increase percentage of citizens using transit• Provide access to alternative transportation choices• Reduce the need for automobile usage• Support technology for use in making travel decisions
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Urban areas that are reaching the “built out” point are focusing on optimizing highwayoperations / maximizing throughput (e.g. express lanes, rideshare / transit).
Source: VDOT
Supporting MultimodalTravel
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Regional MultimodalProject
PRTC Role
Description Partner inPlanning
OperatingService
Transform 66: Inside theBeltway
New commuter bus service R R
Transform 66: Outsidethe Beltway
New and expanded commuter busservice, expanded park-and-ridelots, and new TDM strategies
R R
I-395/I-95 Express Lanes Currently operating commuter busservice; ongoing study of additionalimprovements
R R
Richmond Highway(US 1) BRT
Proposed bus rapid transit R --
Rail Expansions Planning for VRE and Metrorailexpansions R --
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PRTC will continue to play a major role in partnering on transportationinitiatives at all government levels
Supporting MultimodalTravel
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Prince William CountyProposed Future Transit Alternatives
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Locally, the PrinceWilliam County area
has envisioned afuture network of
high-capacity transit
Supporting MultimodalTravel
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78%
22%
Park-and-Rides with PRTC Service (2016) –Approximately 9,300 spaces
Occupied Non-Occupied
• Park-and-Ride lots with PRTC busservice are well-utilized, especiallyones closest to interstates
• The Transform 66 Project includesapproximately 4,000 new spacesalong the I-66 Corridor with directaccess to new Express Lanes
• Park-and-Ride lots also used forcarpooling, vanpooling, andslugging
Supporting MultimodalTravel
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PRTC has thepotential toincrease its
alreadyextensive
coverage ofthe region’s
activitycenters
Supporting MultimodalTravel
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Supporting transit-oriented growth
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National/Regional Trends• Mixed-use activity centers• Decrease in auto-focused
development
Common Objectives & Strategies• Standards for new development
to ensure accessibility to transit• Complete Street policies• Targeted growth areas
More than halfof all jobs in Northern
Virginia are alreadywithin a quarter-mile
of a transit facility
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Supporting Transit Oriented Growth
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The number ofjobs within
PRTC servicearea is amongthe highest of
NorthernVirginia bus
systems and isexpected to
grow
Source: NVTC/Virginia Tech
Supporting MultimodalTravel
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Fore
cast
edEm
ploy
men
t
Year
Forecasted Transit-Accessible Employment (MWCOG)
Metrobus Connector PRTC ART LCT DASH Metrorail CUE VRE
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Nationally, regionally, and locally, jurisdictions and private developers are favoringa transit-oriented, mixed-use development approach (decreased emphasis on cars)
Supporting Transit Oriented Growth
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Forecast Increase in Activity(Jobs + People)2015 - 2040
Fewer than 250
250 - 500
500 - 1,000
1,000 - 2,500
2,500 - 5,000
5,000 - 7,500
More than 7,500
Source: MWCOG Round 8.4 Forecasts
forecasted newjobs and people
within thePRTC bus service
area by 2040
1.38M
forecasted growthin employment
for PWC,Manassas, andManassas Park
69%
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Localities with high growth must continue to put in place firm policieslinking transportation and land use
Supporting Transit Oriented Growth
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Local entities around the Northern Virginia Region, including Prince WilliamCounty, are adopting design guidelines to foster transit oriented growth
• Complete Streets
• Transit Service LevelRequirements
• Lower Parking Minimums
• Enhanced Pedestrian andBicycle Accommodation
• ADA Compliance
Supporting Transit Oriented Growth
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Transit-supportive areas inlocalities’ future land use plansrepresent potential areas forincreased transit service
Supporting Transit Oriented Growth