Future Ocean, Kiel Marine Sciences March 20, 2013 World...

Future Ocean, Kiel Marine SciencesMarch 20, 2013

German Mineral Resources Agency (DERA) at the German Geological Survey (BGR)

Peter Buchholz, Ulrike Dorner

German Mineral Resources Agency at the

Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources (BGR), Berlin, Germany

March 20, 2013

World metal production and future demands


Founded 10/2010, opening of DERA in Berlin 28. August 2012

„Mineral supply for the German industry has a high priority for us. Moving the German Mineral Resources Agency to Berlin is a consequent nextstep.“

Services provided by the German Mineral Resources Agen cy (DERA)

Securing raw material supply for Germany

Services

A Improve market transparency in the mineral resources sector byproviding minerals information and analysis and advise companies about price and supply risks

B Professional backing of measures taken bythe German government and companies tosecure raw materials supply

Aim

Raw Materials Information and Analyses Contributions to a secureraw materials supply

1. Raw Material Information System

2. RiskAssessment

3. Raw Material Potentials

4. Strategies forSecurity of Supply

5. DiversifiyingSupply

Services

Network Building, Raw Material Dialogues, Industry Wo rkshops, Conferences

1. Future DemandIndustrializationInfluence of emerging technologies

2. Future SupplyMajor supply sources


3. Which raw materials are critical? Price and supply risks

4. Outlook for copper, terrestrial and marine – somethoughts

Future Demand


Cyclical raw material markets: Price and GDP

Que

lle: B

GR

Dat

enba

nk, C

RB

, Wor

ld B

ank

CRB Metals Sub-Index

1. Oil price shock

2. Oil price shock

Collaps ofUSSR

China Factor ?

Asia crisis

500

600

700

800

900

1000In

dexw

ert

0,0

2,0

4,0

6,0

GDP growthworld (%)

Financial

CRB

Que

lle: B

GR

Dat

enba

nk, C

RB

, Wor

ld B

ank

Collaps ofBretton-Woods

?

High demand

0

100

200

300

400

500

1947

1952

1957

1962

1967

1972

1977

1982

1987

1992

1997

2002

2007

Inde

xwer

t

nominal real, basis: 2000

2013

Financialcrisis

Reuters CRB-Metals-Subindex copper-, steel- and lead sc rap, zinc, tin

Future Demand – Industrialisation in a changing world

Major raw material consumers 2011 (2005)

50

60

70

80

%

53,3

42,2

45,1

39,6

43,4

42,7

48,545,4

(25,3)

(27,1)

(32,0)

(21,1)

(18,2)

(28,6)

(31,4)

(44,1)

IND D KOR KOR D KOR KOR RUS JPJP KOR JP D KOR D JP IND RSA

D IND DUSA

IND USA IND JP IND

USA USA USAJP

USAJP

USAUSA

USA

10

20

30

40

Al Pb Cu Ni Zn Sn steel oil hard coal

CN

CN

CNCN

CN

CNCN

CNCN

11,4

Share of global demand

20

30

40

50

60%

Brasilien

China

Indien

Russland

0

10

20

18

50

18

60

18

70

18

80

18

90

19

00

19

10

19

20

19

30

19

40

19

50

19

60

19

70

19

80

19

90

20

00

20

10

Average share of demand of the BRIC states of globa l demand for aluminium, steel, copper, zinc and tin

University of Bonn, M. Stürmer, study commissioned and funded by DERA, 2012

Share of global demand

20

30

40

50

60% Großbritannien

USA

Deutschland

Japan

Südkorea

Great Britain

USA

Germany

Japan

South Korea

0

10

20

18

50

18

60

18

70

18

80

18

90

19

00

19

10

19

20

19

30

19

40

19

50

19

60

19

70

19

80

19

90

20

00

20

10

Average share of demand of Industrialised Nations o f global demand for aluminium, steel, copper, zinc and tin

University of Bonn, M. Stürmer, study commissioned and funded by DERA, 2012

Outlook demand: Emerging technologies

Raw material

2006* 2030* Emerging Technology

Gallium 0,18 3,97 Thin layer photovoltaics, IC, WLED

Indium 0,40 3,29 Displays, Thin layer photovoltaics

Scandium low 2,31 SOFC Fuel cells, Al-alloys

Germanium 0,28 2,20 Fibre optic cable, IR optical tech nology

Neodym 0,23 1,66 Permanent magnets, laser technology

Share of global production in 2006 compared to global demand in 2030 for the relevant technology Source: Fraunhofer-Institut für System-und Innovationsforschung, Institut für Zukunftsstudien und Technologiebewertung (2009); * Recalculated by BGR with new data (2009)

Platinum low 1,35 Fuel cells, catalysts

Tantalum 0,40 1,02 Micro capacitors, medical technolog y

Silver 0,28 0,83 RFID, lead free solders

Tin 0,57 0,71 Lead free solders, transparent electrode s

Cobalt 0,21 0,43 Lithium ion batteries, synthetic fuel s

Palladium 0,09 0,29 Catalysts, seawater desalination

Future Demand - The influence of emerging technologi es:Breakthrough difficult to predict

Expected increases in demand for selected raw materials in correlation to current supply and corresponding supply risks

(source: Tercero Espinoza: „The role of emerging technologies in a rapidly changing demand for mineral raw materials“, Polinares WP2

POLINARES Final Conference 28th November 2012

Future Supply


Outlook demand: Emerging technologies

Global reserves and resources – a dynamic system

Undiscovered

Resources

Reserves

Reserve base Resources

Resources

identified undiscovered

Static lifetime of reserves and resources – a dynamic syste m

4

8

12

16

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

20

40

60

80

1987: 39 years2008: 36 years

2008: 14,4 Mio. t

1960: 4,2 Mio. t

Copper

Mio

. tye

ars

0,4

0,8

1,2

1,6

20

60

100

140

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Mio

. tye

ars

Nickel

1960: 0,34 Mio. t

2008: 1,5 Mio. t

1987: 63 years 2008: 46 years

0

10

20

30

0

200

400

600

t

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

year

s

Indium

1972: 66,4 t

2007: 563 t

1989: 15 years

2007: 19 years

10

30

50

70

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

100

300

500

year

s1.

000

t Cobalt

1960: 14.734 t

2008: 63.783 t

1988: 125 years 2008: 111 years

Mine production (Indium: refined production)

Source: USGS, BGR database, 2009

Static lifetime of reserve baseStatic lifetime of reserves

Global supply – What are the major mining countries?

fota

lia

Major mining countries of the world

Major mining countries in the world* by value

Share of global mine production >5 %, countries represent ca. 50-55 % of the total value

5 - 10 %

Data source: Raw Materials Group Stockholm, Mines Value 2008, 75 % coverage* Metals, diamonds, zircon, P, K2O, B, Li, incl. U



Share of global mine production >1 %, countries represent ca. 60-65 % of the total value

5 - 10 %

1 - 5 %

RMG Mines Value 2008, 75 % Datenerfassung* Metalle, Diamanten, Zirkon, P, K2O, B, Li, inkl. U


Share of global mine production >0,1 %, countries represent ca. 80-85 % of the total value


5 - 10 %

1 - 5 %

0,5 - 1 %

0,1 - 0,5 %

RMG Mines Value 2008, 75 % Datenerfassung* Metalle, Diamanten, Zirkon, P, K2O, B, Li, inkl. U

Gloabal exploration budgets and CRB-Metals-Sub-Index

Ex

plo

rati

on

bu

dg

ets

[b

n U

S$

]

10

12

14

16

18

800

1000

1200

Su

b-I

nd

ex

Latin

America

Rest of

Australia

Pacific/

SE-Asia; 5 %

25 %

19%15 %

USA; 7 %

14 %

Ex

plo

rati

on

bu

dg

ets

[b

n U

S$

]

2

4

6

8

10

200

400

600

CR

B M

eta

ls-S

ub

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Canada

Africa

Rest of

world

19%

15%

15 %

Data Source: Metals Economics Group (MEG), CRB

Which raw materials are critical?


Rare Earths: Global concentration of mine production

China2010: 118,900 t

SEO

97 % of global production

Russia2010: 1,495 t SEO

USA 2010: 1,483 t SEO

from dumps

Methodology: Global concentration of supply (Herfindah l-Hirschman-Index, HHI)

DERA Risk Assessment for Mineral Supply

productionHHI = 9,520

Brazil2010: 1,043 t Monazite

from dumps

India2009:

2009: 35 t SEO

World Bank Group GovernanceIndicators (WGI)

-0.5 to 0.0

-2.5 to -2.0

-2.0 to -1.5

-1.5 to -1.0

-1.0 to -0.5

Methodology: Weighted country risk (GLR) by World Governance Indicators

DERA Risk Assessment for Mineral Supply

0.0 to 0.5

0.5 to 1.0

1.0 to 1.5

1.5 to 2.0

World Governance Indicators by World Bank:

- Control of Corruption- Voice and Accountability- Political Stability and Absence of Violence- Government Effectiveness- Regulatory Quality- Rule of Law

World Bank Group, 2010. Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI). http://info.worldbank.org/governance/wgi/index.asp.

DERA study on critical raw materials – Highlight Cu, Ni, Mn, Mo

NiCr

Sn

SnV

Co

Graphit

GranatPd

Magnesit

SbW

Mg

Bi

–1,5

–1,0

–0,5

highW

eig

hte

d c

ou

ntr

y r

isk

of

pro

du

ctio

n,

wo

rld

ba

nk

da

ta

Metals (ore) Metals (refined) Industrial minerals

Seltene Erden

Phosphat Baryt

FeCr

Fluorit

RohstahlNi

Au

Kaolin

Ag Bentonit

Ni

Zn

Cu

Fe

KaliGlimmer

ZnAl

Talk Si

Li

Zr

GranatPd

Pt Nb

Ti

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

Herfindahl-Hirschman-Index of production 2009/2010 (country concentration )

400 1.000 10.0001.500

low medium high

We

igh

ted

co

un

try

ris

k o

f p

rod

uct

ion

, w

orl

d b

an

k d

ata

Pb

CoBx

2.500

Rutil

Pb

MoIn

FeCr

Mn

Cd

Rohstahl

Cu

Indicators for market evaluation

Outlook for copper


Copper mine production 2010

Quelle: BGR Datenbank

Copper mine production 2010 and country risk

Quelle: BGR Datenbank

Country and company concentration of copper mine producti on

Distribution of copper reserves 2010

Quelle: USGS

Future Production – annual mine capacity until 2017

Data source: Metals Economic Group

The ten largest cooper projects (total, all cooper proje cts until 2017: 9.6 Mt Cu)

Name Firma Land Status Typ Erwartete Jahresför-derkapazität[1.000 t Cu]

Reserven & Ressourcen [Mio. t Inh.]

Erwarteter Produktions-beginn

Betriebs-kosten [US$/lb]

Resolution Rio Tinto USA Feasibility UG 500 23,9 2021 k. A.

Oyu Tolgoi Rio Tinto Mongolei im Bau OP 450 31,5 2013 0,45

Tampakan Xstrata Philippinen Feasibility OP 450 15,1 2019 0,46

Congo Mines and Infrastructure Construction*

China Railway Engineering

DR Kongo Feasibility 400 6,8 2013 k. A.

El Pachon Xstrata Argentinien Feasibility OP 400 15,5 2016 0,50El Pachon Xstrata Argentinien Feasibility OP 400 15,5 2016 0,50

Las Bambas Xstrata Peru im Bau OP/UG

400 10,5 2014 0,60

Golpu Newcrest Mining

Papua-Neuguinea

Prefeasibility UG 330 k. A. 2019 k. A.

Pebble Northern Dynasty Minerals/AngloAmerican

USA Prefeasibility OP/UG

307 32,4 2019 -0,11

Frieda River Xstrata Papua-Neuguinea

Feasibility OP 304 12,8 2017 0,43

La Granja Rio Tinto Peru Prefeasibility OP 300 18,4 2017 0,47

* Dikuluwe- und Mashamba-Konzession

Expected future supply for copper until 2017

Future Demand – Industrialisation: Asia as a driver

Demand for copper per world region(low/high growth scenario, by ENERDATA)

High growth scenario

(source: Keramidas, Kitous, Griffin: „Future availability and demand for oil gas and key minerals“, Polinares WP2

Low growth scenario

POLINARES Final Conference 28th November 2012

Terrestrial and marine mining


- some thoughts

Terrestrial and marine mining – some thoughts

Cu, 1.18 %2.0 Mt*

(ore, dry)

21,000 t

(metal)

GradeAnnual

Mine capacitywet ore30 % moist.mine loss

Recovery90 %??

Mine Production(One mine)

Mn-nodulesCCZ

Annual metalproduction

Copper, simple estimate (dimensions)

(ore, dry) (metal)CCZ

Cu, 0.5 %100 Mt

(ore)

405,000 t

(metal)

Recovery90 %

Terrestriale.g. Las Bambas, Peru

Mine loss10 %

*marine: range 1.5-4.0 Mt annual mine capacity, International Seabed Authority, Hein et al, 2013 and others

Ni, 1.39 %2.0 Mt

(ore, dry)

21,000 t

(metal)

GradeAnnual

Mine capacitywet ore30 % moist.mine loss

Recovery90 %??

Mine production

Mn-nodulesCCZ

Annual metalproduction

Nickel, simple estimate (dimensions)

Terrestrial and marine mining – some thoughts

(ore, dry) (metal)CCZ

Ni, 1.04 %8 Mt

(ore, lat.)

50,000 t

(metal)

Recovery70 %

Terrestriale.g. AmbatovyMadagascar

Mine loss10 %

*marine: range 1.5-4.0 Mt annual mine capacity, International Seabed Authority, Hein et al, 2013 and others

Average cash costs for copper (terrestrial)

Cash operating costs and pricefor marine Mn-nodules ??

Combined Cu, Ni, Mo, (Mn andothers)others)

Future Ocean, Kiel Marine SciencesMarch 20, 2013


Peter Buchholz, Ulrike Dorner

German Mineral Resources Agency at the

Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources (BGR), Berlin, Germany

March 20, 2013

World metal production and future demands

Future Ocean, Kiel Marine Sciences March 20, 2013 World...

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