Future Emissions and Mitigation Modeling National Institute for Environmental Studies Mikiko Kainuma...

Future Emissions and Future Emissions and Mitigation ModelingMitigation Modeling

National Institute for Environmental StudiesNational Institute for Environmental Studies

Mikiko KainumaMikiko Kainuma

Asia-Pacific Forum for Collaborative Modeling on Climate Policy, October 25, 2002

Hotel Grand Inter-Continental, New Delhi

CO2 emissionCO2 emission intensity intensity

1995

2032

2032

Market

Policy

0 5 10 100 1000

gC/m2/year

Population projection in Market First Scenario

JapanOceania

South East Asia

East Asia

South Asia

20002015

2030

Asia-Pacific

Western, Eastern, South Africa

America

Europe + CIS

Middle East + Northern Africa

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

million

Population projection in Security First Scenario

20002015

2030

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

JapanOceania

South East Asia

East Asia

South Asia

million

Asia-Pacific


America

Europe + CIS

Middle East + Northern Africa

World GDP in Market First Scenario

20002015

2030

Middle East +Northern Africa

Europe + CIS

America


-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

Billion US$ 1995 Japan Oceania

South East Asia

East Asia

South AsiaAsia-Pacific

20002015

2030

Middle East +Northan Africa

Europe+CIS

America

W,E,S Africa

Asia-Pacific

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

Billion US$ 1995

JapanOceania

South East Asia

East Asia

South Asia

World GDP in Security First Scenario

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Year

CO

2 em

issi

ons

(Mt-

C)

Historical data

Market First

Policy First

Security First

Sustainability First

Energy related CO2 emissions in the Asia-Pacific region

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

South East AsiaSouth Asia East Asia Central Asia

Cha

nge

in e

nerg

y-re

late

d C

O2

emis

sion

sby

203

2 re

lati

ve to

200

2 (%

)

Afghanistan Bangladesh

Iran Maldives

Nepal Pakistan

Sri Lanka

Brunei Cambodia

Indonesia Lao

Malaysia Myanmar

Philippines Singapore

Thailand Vietnam

China Korea, Dem

Korea, RepJapan

Mongolia Taiwan, China

Kazakhstan Kyrgyz Republic

TurkmenistanTajikistan

Uzbekistan

Australia New Zealand

Fiji Kiribati

Nauru Palau

Papua New Guinea French Polynesia

Tonga Vanuatu

Samoa Solomon Islands

IndiaBhutan

South Asia

Southeast Asia

East Asia

Central Asia

ANZ and South Pacific

MK

PO SC

SU

MK: Market FirstPO: Policy First

SC: Security FirstSU: Sustainability First

MK

PO SC

SU

MK

PO SC SU

MK

PO SC

SU

MK

PO SC

SU

ANZ andSouth Pacific

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

South East AsiaSouth Asia East Asia Central Asia

Cha

nge

in e

nerg

y-re

late

d C

O2

emis

sion

sby

203

2 re

lati

ve to

200

2 (%

)


Iran Maldives

Nepal Pakistan

Sri Lanka

Brunei Cambodia

Indonesia Lao

Malaysia Myanmar


Thailand Vietnam

China Korea, Dem

Korea, RepJapan




Uzbekistan


Fiji Kiribati

Nauru Palau


Tonga Vanuatu


IndiaBhutan

South Asia

Southeast Asia

East Asia

Central Asia



Iran Maldives

Nepal Pakistan

Sri Lanka

Brunei Cambodia

Indonesia Lao

Malaysia MyanmarMalaysia Myanmar


Thailand Vietnam

China Korea, Dem

Korea, RepJapan




Uzbekistan


Fiji Kiribati

Nauru Palau


Tonga Vanuatu


IndiaBhutan

South Asia

Southeast Asia

East Asia

Central Asia


MK

PO SC

SU

MK

PO SC

SU

MK: Market FirstPO: Policy First

SC: Security FirstSU: Sustainability First

MK

PO SC

SU

MK

PO SC

SU

MK

PO SC SU

MK

PO SC SU

MK

PO SC

SU

MK

PO SC

SU

MK

PO SC

SU

MK

PO SC

SU

ANZ andSouth Pacific

Change in energy related CO2 emissions by 2032 relative to 2002 in sub-regions of the Asia-Pacific region

-3.0

-2.5

-2.0

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0

GD

P c

han

ge

(com

par

ison

wit

h b

asel

ine,

tri

llio

n y

en)

GDP loss caused byKyoto targetRecovery by increasedproduction of environmental industry

2005 2010

Japanese reduction and recovery of GDP caused by Kyoto(without international emission trade)

Recovery by investmentin advanced technologydevelopment

2005 2010


-3.0

-2.5

-2.0

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0

GD

P c

han

ge

(com

par

ison

wit

h b

asel

ine,

tri

llio

n y

en)


Recovery by increasingenvironmental premiumof consumption

2005 2010


-3.0

-2.5

-2.0

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0

GD

P c

han

ge

(com

par

ison

wit

h b

asel

ine,

tri

llio

n y

en)

Recovery by investmentin advanced technologydevelopment


0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1990 2000 2010 2020

CO

2 E

mis

sio

n (

MtC

O2)

A1

A2B1B2

102969896

A1A2B1B2

105888783

< Countermeasure case >

A1

A2

B1

B2

A1

A2

B1

B2

(1990=100)

Estimates of CO2 Emission in Japan with AIM end-use model

450 450 ppmvppmv550 550 ppmvppmv650650 ppmvppmv

Business as Usual

2000 2050 2100

10

20

30

40

0

CO

2 em

issi

on

s　

（G

tC）

Necessary reductions for stabilization assuming Business as Usual development path

GD

P lo

ss (%

)

750ppm

650ppm

550ppm

450ppm

Busin

ess

as U

sual

4.1

2.9

2.3

1.2

Econo

mic

gro

wth

con

trol

3.6

3.3

2.3

1.2

Eco-

mar

ket e

stab

lishm

ent

Eco-

mar

ket e

stab

lishm

ent

1.9

0.9

0.4

0.0Li

fest

yle

chan

ge

Life

styl

e ch

ange

0.9

0.6

0.3

0.0

Adv

ance

d

Adv

ance

d

Tech

nolo

gy

Tech

nolo

gy

intr

oduc

tion

intr

oduc

tion

0.3

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.01.02.03.0

4.0

5.0

Environmental Environmental InnovationsInnovationsfor Cost for Cost ReductionReduction

Future Emissions and Mitigation Modeling National Institute for Environmental Studies Mikiko Kainuma...

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