Fukushima and the Future of Safe Energy in the United States David Richardson, PhD Andrew S. Kanter,...
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Fukushima and the Future of Safe Energy in the United States
David Richardson, PhDAndrew S. Kanter, MD MPH
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Occupational risks
Photo: REUTERS Medical staff arrive at Fukushima Medical University Hospital to treat radiation exposed workers from Tokyo Electric Power Co.'s Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant, Fukushima City, Japan, March 24, 2011.
Photograph: Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency/APPlant workers collect data in the control room for Unit 1 and Unit 2.
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Environmental releases
Photograph: Reuters. Workers at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant are continuing the efforts to make the stricken No 3 reactor safe.
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Environmental releases
Photograph: EPA. Wednesday 23 March: A farmer looks on as radioactive milk is poured into the soil at a dairy farm in Mito town, Ibaraki prefecture
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Variation over the life span in susceptibility to an exposure’s effect
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Maternal Irradiation During Pregnancy
Leukemia Other Malignant Disease
Case/Control
RR (95%CI) Case/Control
RR (95%CI)
None 202/222 referent 202/225 referent
Other 25/23 1.19 (0.65, 2.16)
33/32 1.15 (0.68,1.94)
Abdomen 42/24 1.92 (1.12, 3.28)
43/21 2.28 (1.31, 3.97)
Stewart, 1956
Ionizing Radiation and Chilldhood Cancer:
Oxford Survey of Childhood Cancer
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Variation over the life span in susceptibility to an exposure’s effect
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Ratio of Observed to Expected DeathsLifetime Cumulative Dose
Ratio of Observed to Expected Deaths Cumulative Dose >=45 yrs Adjusted for Dose < 45 yrs
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Alternative Descriptions of Age-at-Exposure Effects on Solid Cancer Incidence, Life Span Study, 1958-1998
Preston et al., Radiation Research, 168:1-64, 2007
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Source: US Department of Energy, 1996
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Nuclear Power Plants in the US104 operating nuclear power plants and 36 non-power reactors in the US11 operating plants in Northern IllinoisProduce 19% of the nation’s energy
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Nuclear plant safety-Could it happen here?Core protected by containment domeCoolant supply critical and must be maintained after chain reaction shutdown (20,000-500,000 g/m)Spent fuel pools vulnerable
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Spent Fuel StorageAfter 12-24 months in the reactor, fuel is offloaded into cooling pondsMust remain until coolMore than 10x the radioactive material than the core (20-50 million curies Cs-137)
-Chernobyl released 2 million curies
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Accident/Attack at BraidwoodPWR producing 2500 MW at full power50+ mi SW of ChicagoTwo scenarios:
Reactor vessel breachSpent fuel pond fire
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Analysis ToolsHPAC- Hazard Prediction and Assessment Capability from the Defense Threat Reduction AgencyCATS- Consequences Assessment Tool Set from the Federal Emergency Management Agency
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Braidwood Scenario 1Catastrophic coolant failureCore exposed causing fire and breach4% of core/hr burnedSummer DayNormal TemperaturesBroken Clouds
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Braidwood Total Effective Dose Equivalent
South Bend
Fort Wayne
Joliet
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Braidwood Evacuation Area
Grand Rapids
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Medical ConsequencesThe number of acutely ill people would overwhelm all available care facilities Many facilities will not be available due to contamination:
113 hospitals would fall within the occupational exposure zone (including two VA hospitals) affecting more than 32,000 potential beds. Nearly 20,000 physicians in five counties would receive greater than occupational maximums for radiation exposure from the plume itself, let alone that from contaminated patients.
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Medical ConsequencesFirst responders, like firefighters would also be badly affected. The 25 firefighters of Essex Fire Department would possibly receive lethal doses, and the 67 firefighters of Braidwood and Herscher departments would be suffering from radiation sickness. Another 10,500 firefighters in 355 other departments would have exceeded occupational exposures from the plume itself and would be unavailable to respond within the highly contaminated area. Police departments would also be hard hit in Essex, Braidwood and Herscher with the 38 police officers receiving potentially lethal doses of radiation.
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Indian Point Comparison3,500-44,000 immediate deaths100,000-500,000 long term deaths due to cancerEconomic damages within 100 mi range from $1.1-2.1 trillion
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Carbon and Nuclear Free Futurehttp://www.ieer.org/carbonfree/summary.pdf
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12 RecommendationsEnact a physical limit of CO2 emissions for large users of fossil fuels Eliminate all subsidies / tax breaks for fossil fuels /nuclear powerEliminate subsidies for biofuels from food cropsBuild demo plantsLeverage federal, state and local purchasing powerBan new coal-fired power plants w/o CCS
Enact at the federal level high efficiency standardsEnact stringent building efficiency standardsEnact stringent efficiency standards for vehiclesReward early adopters of CO2 reductionsAdopt vigorous research, development, and pilot plant constructionEstablish a standing comm. on Energy and Climate
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For More InformationR. Alvarez et al., “Reducing the Hazards from Stored Spent Power-Reactor Fuel in the United States,” Science and Global Security 11 (2003): 1-51.D. Hirsch, “The NRC: What, me worry?,” Bulletin of Atomic Scientists 58(1): 38-44.E. Lyman, “Chernobyl on the Hudson?,” Union of Concerned Scientists, September 2004: 1-54.Http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=COmNdgHr628http://www.ieer.org/carbonfree/summary.pdf
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